Another redistricting diary, mostly because I can't think of anything interesting and non-wonkish to write about.
On to Massachusetts, a bastion of American progressivism. My last diary covered three smaller New England states: New Hampshire, Maine, and Rhode Island. Click the link above for a closer look at my redrawn congressional maps in those states.
(Diarist's note: New England is very boring to redistrict, because the VRA doesn't come into play and clean plans don't really change partisan outcomes.)
MASSACHUSETTS
MA-01
Obama-McCain: 68-30
Total population: 729,334
Total VAP: 573,579
Race (VAP): 79% white, 12% Hisp., 5% Af-Am., 2% Asian, 1% Other, <1% Nat.
Incumbent: Richard Neal (D)
Predecessor district: MA-01
Based in: Springfield, the Berkshires
Includes: Springfield, the Berkshires, Northampton, Amherst
This district is a little whiter than the nation as a whole, but, owing to the fact that it's full of colleges and New Englanders, it's significantly more liberal than the rest of the country. No Democrat should ever have a problem here. Safe D.
MA-02
Obama-McCain: 57-41
Total population: 725,506
Total VAP: 560,140
Race (VAP): 85% white, 8% Hisp., 3% Af-Am., 3% Asian, 1% Other, <1% Nat.
Incumbent: Jim McGovern (D)
Predecessor district: MA-02
Based in: Worcester
Includes: Worcester, Central Massachusetts, remnants of Western Massachusetts that didn't fit into MA-01
This district is pretty white. Rep. McGovern, who is currently notching 16-point wins in Republican wave years, will have to get a bit more careful, because this district could be tough for someone as progressive as him, particularly in a low-turnout midterm. Still, this district should stay in our column, and McGovern has the benefits of incumbency. Safe D with McGovern, Likely D when he retires.
MA-03
Obama-McCain: 59-40
Total population: 724,484
Total VAP: 549,140
Race (VAP): 81% white, 8% Asian, 6% Hisp., 3% Af-Am., 2% Other, <1% Nat.
Incumbent: Niki Tsongas (D)
Predecessor district: MA-03
Based in: Lowell, Merrimack Valley
Includes: Lowell, outer suburbs of Boston & Worcester
This district is just liberal enough to guarantee that we shouldn't have any trouble here, particularly with a strong incumbent like Tsongas. Very white. Safe D.
You'll want to refer back to this from now on. Magenta is MA-03, red is MA-04, gold is MA-05, teal is MA-06, gray is MA-07, slate blue is MA-08.
MA-04
Obama-McCain: 60-39
Total population: 731,563
Total VAP: 562,411
Race (VAP): 79% white, 14% Hisp., 3% Asian, 3% Af-Am., 1% other, <1% Nat.
Incumbent: Seth Moulton (D)
Predecessor district: MA-06
Based in: Salem, Lawrence, Lynn
Includes: Essex County aside from tiny parts in the 3rd and 5th districts
This district is safe for us (unless, of course, we manage to nominate someone like John Tierney.) If Moulton goes for statewide office (and I suspect he will), we'll still have a solid bench, but we'll need to watch out for another run by Richard Tisei. White, but not too white. Safe D unless Tisei runs for an open seat, which makes it Likely D.
MA-05
Obama-McCain: 68-30
Total population: 725,683
Total VAP: 586,019
Race (VAP): 73% white, 9% Hisp., 9% Asian, 6% Af-Am., 3% other, <1% Nat.
Incumbent: Mike Capuano (D)/Katherine Clark (D)
Predecessor district: None
Based in: Cambridge, Somerville
Includes: Cambridge, Somerville, Lexington, Medford, Reading, Revere, Melrose
This district is a cluster of college towns and inner-ring Boston suburbs. Modestly diverse, but likely elects a white Democrat. Clark has more territory here, but Capuano has more seniority. The primary will be ugly. Safe D.
MA-06
Obama-McCain: 62-36
Total population: 727,627
Total VAP: 562,888
Race (VAP): 82% white, 8% Asian, 4% Af-Am., 4% Hisp., 2% other, <1% Nat.
Incumbent: Joseph P. Kennedy III (D)
Predecessor district: MA-04 (substantially changed, but still resembles it)
Based in: Brookline, Newton, Hopkinton
Includes: Suburban Boston, from Brookline to far outer suburbs & some Worcester suburbs
This district is quite liberal, and the fact that the incumbent has the Kennedy name will only get us more votes. Pretty white. Safe D.
MA-07
Obama-McCain: 76-23
Total population: 736,868
Total VAP: 611,172
Race (VAP): 55% white, 18% Af-Am., 13% Hisp., 11% Asian, 3% other, <1% Nat.
Incumbent: Stephen Lynch (D)
Predecessor district:
Based in: Boston
Includes: Boston, Quincy, Milton
This district is Massachusetts' most diverse, and the Democratic primary electorate might be majority-minority. It would probably still elect a white Democrat, but this district is the best shot anyone has at breaking Massachusetts' 100% white congressional delegation. Lynch fits well with this district, so none of that matters as long as he's around. Safe D.
MA-08
Obama-McCain: 55-43
Total population: 725,918
Total VAP: 566,197
Race (VAP): 88% white, 5% Af-Am., 2% Hisp., 2% Asian, 3% other, <1% Nat.
Incumbent: William Keating (D)
Predecessor district: MA-09
Based in: Brockton, Plymouth, Barnstable Town
Includes: Brockton, Plymouth, Cape Cod, Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard
This district is, if you look only at its presidential numbers, a true swing district. However, in state-level elections, this is where the Massachusetts GOP gets its strength---the Dem-Rep average, a good indicator of how common split-ticket voting is, gives this district an average of 57% Republican. We need to watch our backs here---if the Massachusetts GOP has any brains, they'll go after this district very aggressively. Polarization might not be enough to guarantee us this district. Lean D with Keating, Tossup without him.
MA-09
Obama-McCain: 58-40
Total population: 719,039
Total VAP: 555,770
Race (VAP): 89% white, 4% Hisp., 2% Af-Am., 2% Asian, 3% other, <1% Nat.
Incumbent: None
Predecessor district: MA-04
Based in: Fall River, New Bedford
Includes: Fall River, New Bedford, most of the Rhode Island border
This district also has some worrying Republican tendencies downballot, and it'll be open, too. We just have to make sure we don't allow someone like Bob Dold to show up and take this district; however, it's not as bad as MA-08, so Lean D.
And I'm done! Next up, Connecticut. After that, I'll do Nebraska, Kansas, and Iowa.