North Dakota Gov. Jack Dalrymple (R) (at right)
Even though he probably could have easily won another term, Republican Gov. Jack Dalrymple has decided
not to run for re-election next year. Dalrymple had served as lieutenant governor until 2010, when then-Gov. John Hoeven won election to the Senate, but Dalrymple handily won a full term in his own right in 2012. However, he'd been cagey about his future plans all cycle, so his retirement is not a surprise.
And given the dominant role Republicans play in North Dakota politics, there will be plenty of candidates looking to succeed Dalrymple. We took note of a few possibilities in our Great Mentioner series earlier this year, including Lt. Gov. Drew Wrigley, state Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem, Public Service Commissioner Brian Kalk, and former Rep. Rick Berg, who lost a humiliating race for Senate three years ago to Heidi Heitkamp. Other names will surely pop up as well.
Speaking of Heitkamp, she's probably the one Democrat who could make the general election interesting. Almost from the moment she won her near-miraculous Senate campaign, she's refused to rule out a bid for governor. It's a post she came close to winning in 2000, the last time the seat was open. Heitkamp, who was the state's attorney general at the time, actually led in the polls late in the race, but after she revealed she had breast cancer in October, she wound up lost to Hoeven 55-45.
If she's hungry for a second crack at the job, an open seat in a presidential year is going to be her best bet. But it would still be very difficult. It's one thing to go from state office to Congress; it's quite another to attempt the reverse. Republicans would link Heitkamp to Barack Obama at every available opportunity, and while they certainly tried that in 2012, they'd now have an actual voting record to link her to. The intensely unlikeable Berg once griped, "Everyone's pretty likable. The issue is not about a personality contest. This whole thing kind of boils down to, do you want someone who's going to fight against President Obama." That kind of attack fell just short before, but it should resonate more strongly now.
There's another issue at play here, too: Even if Heitkamp were to win, she wouldn't be able to appoint a successor. That's because the Republican-held legislature passed a law earlier this year that would require a special election in the event of a Senate vacancy, a move specifically designed to thwart Heitkamp and ensure her seat would return to Republican hands. (The GOP would be heavily favored to pick it up.) For that reason, national Democrats would certainly prefer that Heitkamp stay put.
But on the flipside, Heitkamp's alternative—seeking re-election in 2018—isn't such an enticing prospect for her personally. After winning by just 1 percent in a presidential year, her prospects of victory in a midterm election, especially if a Democrat is in the White House, would be quite tough. Democrats will be on defense in many difficult seats that year (Montana, Indiana, and Missouri among them), and North Dakota would probably top that list. So even if a gubernatorial run would be a real challenge, Heitkamp might like her odds better in Bismarck than Washington.