Handicapping Biden's prospects is a somewhat difficult task. Where can he win? How much time does he have to build organization? Can he raise the money? What's he selling and why? I'll try and explore it briefly, but I'm interested in hearing opinions.
First, can he win? Given the circumstances, I'd say he could. He can win both the primary and the general election. His home constituencies, or what I like to call 'natural constituency' meaning the people who would be with you out of a sense of kinship of some sort, would be by my guess your basic union voters. Especially those from the skilled trades and industrial workers. That's a pretty good base to build out from. You could figure he might have some difficulty eating into Sanders' base of ideological liberals considering they've cottened to the candidate pretty strongly. But union voters is a much larger, more diverse wing of the party, especially in the big states of the East Coast where he knows the lay of the land well. And, he could have some impact digging into Clinton's base of people of color and white women. Jill Biden would also be a big draw with teachers, a big and important base voter group. Finally, Biden would be acceptable to the Democratic establishment, thus able to attract those County chairmen, Mayors, Governors and the like who can provide critical know how in states that have robust Democratic machines. Like Illinois, California, and New York. Among the early states, I think he could win Iowa and perhaps Nevada. Florida and Ohio would be the first big showdown of his real prowess. He probably has to win there to prove he has national appeal. If he can beat Clinton in Florida and/or Ohio, I think you've got a serious contest.
Time is critical though. He needs to make up his mind. We are four months away from the start of voting. Clinton has been building for over a year and Sanders is rapidly growing his organization in the early states with hopes of Big Mo. I'm not confident a serious organization can be put together by then. He's just really far behind Clinton and Sanders. Nor can he rely on party organization to help him in the early states as so much of that has already gone to Clinton. But if he gets going, he might be ready to hang through the early 4, make a mark on Super Tuesday and then strike in Florida and Ohio two weeks later. Generally these kind of plans don't work though. You gotta win somewhere early or you get no free media. Sanders has made New Hampshire his strike point, with Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Colorado his Super Tuesday battle focus. Clinton is looking to organizational wins in Nevada and South Carolina and then march through the South winning Virginia, Texas, Georgia, etc. Then she also will be looking to Florida and Ohio. Biden, if he can get the right people, might be able to snatch Illinois from Clinton which would be an absolute coup and seriously send her ship rocking.
Money shouldn't be a problem. The Obama fundraising network hasn't taken to Clinton as quickly as Obama campaign operatives have. Then again, she's got her own and doesn't need them. Of course Sanders is out of the question for these people. They'd be there for Biden though.
Now as to his message and argument, I have no idea. Basically I don't see how he says anything except 'More Obama' which aint bad in a Democratic primary but not a complete message considering the passionate liberalism and history making candidacy of his two opponents. But I'm all ears for Biden fans.
6:38 PM PT: Excellent discussion all around. I suppose the consensus view is basically Biden is going nowhere for a variety of good reasons. Still, can't count him out!