Today's unfolding and latest Republican created constitutional crisis was utterly predictable.
You will read and hear a lot about the mysterious, anonymous "House Freedom Caucus" and the establishment vs. "conservative" divide. There is some truth to all that. But today's events, McCarthy's resignation and the drawn-out, delayed election of the next Republican Speaker is primarily driven by one factor: the debt ceiling needs to be extended by November 5, 2015.
That means that any new Republican House Speaker - and the Republican House members themselves - were going to have to raise the debt ceiling as one of the first action items. But anyone watching Republican media recently would know that the insane, suicidal notion of refusing to raise the debt ceiling has now fully gelled into something of a Republican loyalty litmus test -- equal to or greater than the "Norquist pledge" not to raise taxes, ever, for any reason.
The irreconcilable problem for House Republicans is that they know that they have no choice but to raise the debt ceiling, but they have sold to their base that doing so is tantamount to supporting fetal dismemberment by Planned Parenthood.
So, watch a lot of fireworks and breathless coverage, but this all comes down to one thing: John Boehner needs to stay House Speaker long enough to make some deal to raise the debt ceiling (and maybe fund the government for a period). After that, House Republicans will elect a new Speaker . . . unsullied by the debt ceiling and likely with nothing actual to do until after the next election.
I am not sure how we rid ourselves of Republican craziness, but this debt ceiling craziness specifically has become completely untenable, dangerous, and has to go.
"It is another significant step in the Republican party's shocking withdrawal from our system of democratic governance." - The Dark Truth Of John Boehner's Resignation
"We are talking about a sustained, purposeful break with reality by one of two major political parties." - Democratic voters are hungry for some "political incorrectness" too
1:25 PM PT: Watching coverage about the "chaos," "disarray," and "shock" of the Republicans' actions today, I am (unfortunately) not surprised that most don't discuss or get the determinative role played by debt ceiling politics today. In truth, Republicans today acted unsurprisingly, predictably and purposefully.
To be clear: given the impending debt ceiling deadline, no new Republican Speaker - whoever was nominated - was going to get confirmed today. If the debt ceiling deadline was not imminent, McCarthy might have been named Speaker today - - not for certain but an entirely open possibility. Its all about the debt ceiling.
But what if the press openly acknowledged that? What if they even speculated about that? I think the reality of the dangerous Republican dysfunction here is too unsettling to openly discuss. My opinion at least.
2:24 PM PT: This Politico article - posted this morning before McCarthy backed out - comes closer to acknowledging how the debt ceiling is driving all these events:
"Republican leaders insist there’s a problem with either scenario: They say a clean debt ceiling increase cannot pass the Senate, much less a House that’s locked in a tumultuous leadership shake-up with the retirement of House Speaker John Boehner."
“I don't see how just a clean debt ceiling can pass. It’s all going to be wrapped up in one big negotiation,” said Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas).
http://www.politico.com/...