Continuing the trend in non-freepable post-debate polls, in which people can't vote multiple times, Opinion Savvy has released its own post-debate poll of likely Democratic voters, showing Hillary Clinton with a whopping lead over Bernie Sanders, who's been struggling with a mid-20s slump for weeks. (There's even a possible upset in NH.)
Voting preference:
Clinton: 47.8%
Sanders: 25.2%
Biden: 12.0%
African-American breakdown for the above:
Clinton: 69.0%
Sanders: 3.9%
Biden: 15.3%
Winner of the debate:
Clinton: 55.2%
Sanders: 31.7%
African-American breakdown for the above:
Clinton: 76.2%
Sanders: 11.9%
Raw data:
http://opinionsavvy.com/...
In my diary Did Bernie Fail To Strike While The Iron Was Hot? (Oct 11), I included the following HuffPo aggregator chart showing flattened trend lines:
Now we have reversed trend lines. Here's the latest from HuffPo:
Wow! Even with Biden included, Clinton is running away.
In the same diary, I offered some sober analysis:
If you're an underdog and you act all fine and dandy with your front-runner opponent, why shouldn't the voters feel the same way and run with the safe bet? The path of least resistance is to go with the winner, who's receiving a tacit endorsement from the underdog's use of kid gloves and the underdog's failure to draw distinctions aggressively. If Clinton were the underdog, I would want her to show political acumen by drawing distinctions aggressively, and I know she'd have the smarts to do that, which, mind you, can be considered a presidential qualification. Contrary to what his critics say, it's not Sanders' policies that are from unicorn land -- it's his campaign style.
I don't see many Sanders supporters receiving this message well, at least not until after the first debate [Oct 17 update: I'm more pessimistic about the message being received]. Speaking of which, I'm predicting disappointment for the post-debate primary polls heading into November, with Clinton maintaining a 20+ lead over Sanders. Why? Because I feel that Sanders is going to treat the debate like a civil tea ceremony, which is the prerogative of a front-runner, not a challenger. Ergo, the Clinton-Sanders margin will likely remain fairly stable (it could even widen) [Oct 17 update: if this poll is indicative, it's widened... while being Bidened!]. O'Malley will bite at the heels of both Clinton and Sanders and might enjoy a slight boost from his favorable optics. Actually, the optics aren't bad for Hillary either: dead center, exuding executive power, with the desperate challengers presenting a sausage-fest on the flanks [Oct 17 update: it was a very strong night for Clinton].
Now, I've seen quite a few attacks on Clinton from Sanders' more diehard supporters, but here's the problem: It's awfully convenient to attack our likely nominee when she's not around to respond. That's cowardly behavior.
Clinton is ready to make the case for the pragmatics of her reformist platform, so if Sanders' more diehard supporters feel that Sanders has the upper hand, live TV is the place to demonstrate that. As we saw, though, it's unlikely going to be a cakewalk, given Clinton's command of the stage.
We need a tenacious fighter like Clinton if we're going to bring down a Republican in 2016. Politics ain't beanbag. Besides, there's something that doesn't pass the smell test in maintaining that Sanders' approach is going to be effective because people are sick of politics as usual, while simultaneously engaging in politics-as-usual attack diaries against Clinton. It would seem that on some level his diehard supporters recognize the weakness of his campaign.
6:18 AM PT: Vox has some commentary on the post-debate round of credible polls:
Sorry, Bernie fans: The polls are coming in, and it looks like Clinton won the debate