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Canada: Our neighbors to the north are holding federal elections today for the first time since 2011, and a decade of Conservative rule in Canada might finally come to an end. Polling shows the historically centrist Liberal Party with the lead, while the Tories are in second and the left-wing New Democratic Party has dropped to third. But given how close things are, combined with the difficulty of turning national polls into firm seat projections, it's still hard to say who will wind up on top and by how much.
To get fully up to speed, you'll want to read David Beard's detailed analysis, which takes a look back at recent history to see how Canada's gotten to where it is, and a look forward at what might happen on Election Day. And join us at Daily Kos Elections when polls close at 7 PM ET tonight for our liveblog—it'll be an exciting one!
7:51 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Specials: Johnny Longtorso brings us up to speed on one last special before Nov. 3:
South Carolina SD-45: This is the seat formerly held by Democrat Clementa Pinckney, one of the nine slain in the mass shooting at Emanuel AME Church back in June. The candidates are Democrat Margie Bright Matthews, an attorney, and Republican Alberto Fernandez. This seat went 63-36 for President Obama in 2012.
8:12 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Montgomery County, AL Commission: Artur Davis just can't come home again. The Democratic-turned-Republican former congressman is trying to run for the Montgomery County Commission as a Democrat, but he needed to get the state party's permission to do so. Under an Alabama Democratic Party law known as the Radney Rule, no one who has supported another party within the last four years may run as a Democrat. Davis, who memorably campaigned for Mitt Romney in 2012 and mulled running for Congress in Northern Virginia as a Republican in 2013, asked the Executive Board of the State Democratic Executive Committee to waive the Radney Rule, but they rejected his proposal in a near-unanimous Friday vote.
Davis argued that since the party has accepted other party-switchers back into its ranks in recent years, they were obligated to give him the same treatment. Executive Board members were very unconvinced: Tuskegee Mayor Johnny Ford said Davis "was not sincere. He was arrogant. He was trying to embarrass us into saying that we were treating him differently but in this business you have to stand on your own."
Davis says he plans to take legal action, arguing that "the party has applied one standard to my application and a different one to every other individual who has sought reinstatement." The primary for the county commission post is in March, so it won't take very long for Davis to learn his fate.
8:30 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Charlotte, NC Mayor: We have our first public poll of the Nov. 3 general election, and things look good for Team Blue. On behalf of the Charlotte Observer, PPP gives Jennifer Roberts a 54-39 lead over Republican Edwin Peacock. A recent Roberts poll gave her a similar 52-35 edge, while Peacock's survey showed the race tied 40-40.
9:13 AM PT (Jeff Singer): ND-Gov: Republican Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem said last week that he expects to announce his plans within a month, but that hasn't stopped him from forming a campaign committee. Stenehjem says he did it after he received $12,000 in unsolicited contributions, and he acknowledges that he's "more likely than not" to run. Right now, state Rep. Rick Becker has the GOP field to himself, while state Sen. Tom Campbell has also formed a committee but hasn't announced. Treasurer Kelly Schmidt and businessman Doug Burgum haven't ruled out running, and Burgum hasn't closed the door on campaigning as an independent instead.
11:21 AM PT (Jeff Singer): NY-24: On Monday, former U.S. Navy JAG Corps officer Steven Williams announced that he would challenge freshman Republican John Katko. The Post-Standard describes Williams as a "prominent Syracuse lawyer" and he notably won a $1 billion lawsuit against a Mexican oil company, so he may have some wealth and connections.
Williams will face professor Eric Kingson and Colleen Deacon, a former district director for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, in the Democratic primary. National Democrats have been skeptical about Kingson's chances and it's unclear how they feel about Deacon or Williams, though Deacon does have Gillibrand's support. Obama won this seat 57-41, though this area is amenable to Republicans downballot.
11:32 AM PT (Jeff Singer): KY-Gov: A group called The People’s Campaign is out with 60-second spots in the Louisville and Lexington markets in support of Democrat Jack Conway. The Louisville spot features former state Sen. Eleanor Jordan contrasts Conway and Bevin on early childhood education. The Lexington ad stars state Sen. Reginald Thomas and state Rep. George Brown making a similar pitch. The ads would be a lot better if they picked less obnoxious background music.
11:41 AM PT (Jeff Singer): MO-Sen, NV-Sen: The GOP group One Nation has been spending big in New Hampshire, and they're dropping $800,000 each in Missouri and Nevada. The group says its Missouri TV commercials and radio spots will focus on Sen. Roy Blunt's record on military families. Jon Ralston says the Nevada ads in support of Rep. Joe Heck will be "issue ads."
11:47 AM PT (Jeff Singer): AZ-Sen: Ann Kirkpatrick (D): $570,000 raised, $776,000 on hand.
11:49 AM PT (Jeff Singer): LA-Gov: On Saturday, New Orleans-based investigative reporter Jason Berry published a new interview with Wendy Ellis, a former prostitute who had previously claimed to have had a relationship with Republican Sen. David Vitter. In her sit-down with Berry, Ellis now says that in 2000, she became pregnant by Vitter, who she alleges told her to have an abortion. Ellis, who says she is coming forward because she is terminally ill, says she refused and put the child up for adoption. Vitter's camp, unsurprisingly, flatly denies the allegations. There are also a number of inconsistencies in Ellis' story, as outlined by The Gambit's Clancy DuBos, and Ellis has also offered no proof of her claims.
This story comes just days before the Oct. 24 jungle primary. Polls show Vitter and Democrat John Bel Edwards grabbing the two spots that would send them to a Nov. 21 runoff. Republicans Scott Angelle and Jay Dardenne lag behind Vitter, and they're very unlikely to catch up to Vitter unless he loses a significant amount of support by Saturday.
But whether this story is enough to damage his prospects is unclear, to say the least. Among other things, early voting began a week ago (and has now concluded), so the universe of voters who might be swayed by this interview is now more limited. And given the unsubstantiated nature of Ellis' charges, it's even possible they could boomerang and generate sympathy for Vitter, though no candidate for office enjoys questions like this. We'll know in a week whether Ellis' claims wind up having an impact on the race.
12:24 PM PT (Jeff Singer): LA-Gov: Meanwhile, we have a pair of spots from both Edwards (here and here) and Dardenne (here and here). The first Dardenne ad is the most interesting: Dardenne argues that unlike outgoing Gov. Bobby Jindal and Vitter, he won't be controlled by special interests. Both Vitter and Dardenne have a poor personal relationship with Jindal, a fellow Republican, but it's still notable to see them bashing the unpopular governor on TV. So far, Angelle has been the only candidate to leave Jindal alone. Angelle used to work in Jindal's administration and has the support of the governor's inner circle, so he couldn't exactly sell himself as an anti-Jindal Republican even if he wanted to.
12:36 PM PT (Jeff Singer): PA-02: This is remarkable: Democratic Rep. Chaka Fattah, who is under indictment for corruption, has just $822 in his campaign account. Fattah faces three opponents in the primary: Lower Merion Township Commissioner Brian Gordon, ward leader Dan Muroff, and state Rep. Brian Sims.
It's safe to say that Fattah isn't going to raise much dough as he awaits trial, but don't write his political obituary quite yet. The congressman's three opponents could all split the anti-Fattah vote enough to secure him renomination in this safely blue Philadelphia seat. It also doesn't help the trio that they're all white candidates trying to unseat an African American in a predominantly black seat. Still, wow.
1:03 PM PT (Jeff Singer): IL-08: Sure, Villa Park Mayor Deb Bullwinkel has far less money than businessman Raja Krishnamoorthi, and she doesn't have much name recognition as the head of a 22,000 person community. But Bullwinkel's out with a poll of the Democratic primary showing her... in a distant third place. The Anzalone, Liszt, Grove survey gives state Sen. Mike Noland a 29-22 lead against Krishnamoorthi, with Bullwinkel at 8.
Bullwinkel's arguing that the race is far from settled with so many undecideds and that once her name recognition increases, she'll have a better shot. But after respondents are given positive descriptions of all three candidates, Noland still leads with 37, while Krishnamoorthi edges her 26-24.
The biggest problem for Bullwinkel is that she really doesn't have the resources to get her name out there. In the last quarter, Bullwinkel raised only $36,000 and has just $39,000 on hand. EMILY's List has been in contact with Bullwinkel, but they haven't endorsed her yet: Even if they do, EMILY will need to spend a ton of money to get her name out in the expensive Chicago market, something they may not do if she's not raising enough to air her own ads.
Noland also may have a tough time holding onto whatever lead he has. As of Sept. 30, Krishnamoorthi leads him $946,000 to $72,000 in cash on hand. Money isn't everything, but it's going to be tough for Noland to win if Krishnamoorthi has the airwaves almost completely to himself.
1:28 PM PT (Jeff Singer): NE Ballot: On Friday, the Nebraska secretary of state confirmed that a proposed ballot measure aiming to reinstate the death penalty will make it to the November 2016 ballot. Nebraskans for the Death Penalty, which is backed by GOP Gov. Pete Ricketts, has also submitted enough signatures to postpone the ban on capital punishment until next year's vote. However, the Omaha World-Herald says that it's unlikely that there will be any executions before voters have had their say. Nebraska currently doesn't have the drugs it needs to carry out lethal injections, and the Nebraska Supreme Court is unlikely to approve any death penalty warrants before next November.
1:37 PM PT (Jeff Singer): WATN?: It's time for another edition of "Where on K-Street is Dan Burton?" When we last heard from the former Indiana congressman and Republican destroyer of watermelons, he was publishing anti-Armenia editorials without disclosing that he heads the Azerbaijan America Alliance. Now, Legistorm notes that he has a new gig lobbying for the Citizens Commission on Human Rights, an innocent-sounding group that was founded by the Church of Scientology and "advocates against psychiatry and psychiatric medicine."