Leading Off:
● Maricopa County, AZ: Republican Joe Arpaio has spent his two-plus decades as Maricopa County sheriff cultivating his reputation as the most notorious law enforcement official in America. He's known for his abusive treatment of prisoners, for his appreciation of racial profiling, and for going hog-wild nuts with an "investigation" where he "proved" that Barack Obama's birth certificate is fraudulent. He is, of course, a disgrace to Arizona's largest county (the home of Phoenix), but no one's ever had enough juice to dislodge him from his job, which is, rather remarkably, an elected position.
That could finally change next year. Former Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon, a Democrat, says he's being urged to challenge Arpaio by some "credible organizations and people," but cautions that he won't start considering the race until next year. Gordon knows it would be a difficult task, suggesting he'd have to be "crazy enough" to want to take on Arpaio, but it's by no means a hopeless task. In 2012, Arpaio only won with 50.7 percent of the vote, beating Democrat Paul Penzone by just 6 points. Had an independent candidate not run, the election would have been even closer.
Now, Maricopa is normally solidly Republican: Mitt Romney carried it by 10 points, very similar to his statewide margin. But Arpaio's continuous (and expensive) legal run-ins have helped make him a lot less popular than he once was, and with a presidential race juicing Democratic turnout, Gordon would have a real shot.
Senate:
● AZ-Sen: State Sen. Kelli Ward, who is challenging Sen. John McCain in next year's GOP primary, says she's resigning from the legislature in a couple of weeks to focus on her Senate bid. Arizona does have a silly "resign-to-run" law that does require incumbents seeking another office to quit their current jobs first, but the requirements have been relaxed in recent years. Ward therefore doesn't actually have to leave her job now, so she may be telling the truth when she says this is about concentrating on beating McCain. If so, Democrats will wish her all the luck in the world.
● IL-Sen: Monday was the filing deadline for anyone looking to run in Illinois' March 15 primary, and the state has a list of who filed here. In the Land of Lincoln, candidates often try to have their opponents removed from the ballot by challenging their petitions, so not every person listed here may make it to the primary. Indeed, during his first campaign for the state Senate, Barack Obama got all his primary opponents thrown off the ballot after he successfully argued that they had not collected enough valid signatures.
The U.S. Senate race will be the marquee contest here. Republican Sen. Mark Kirk only faces two minor opponents in the primary: While both ex-Reps. Bobby Schilling and Joe Walsh made noises about opposing him, neither of them ended up making the jump. On the Democratic side, Rep. Tammy Duckworth, the favorite of national Democrats, faces ex-local Urban League head and Chicago School Board member Andrea Zopp and state Sen. Napoleon Harris. See our House section for our summary of Illinois congressional races to watch.
● KY-Sen: After last month's dismal elections in the Bluegrass State, Kentucky Democrats aren't very enthused about the prospect of taking on GOP Sen. Rand Paul next year, no matter how much he alienates home-state voters with his absurd presidential bid. However, a trio of names has recently cropped up: state Veterans Affairs Commissioner Heather French Henry, actress Ashley Judd, and Louisville Mayor Greg Fischer, none of whom have ruled out the idea yet.
Judd, you'll recall, was a top choice for Democrats last cycle against Sen. Mitch McConnell but she ultimately declined despite reports suggesting she'd run. French Henry, who won the Miss America competition in 2000 and is the wife of former Lt. Gov. Steve Henry, also considered a Senate bid last cycle but never ran. As for Fischer, a spokesman said, "The mayor enjoys being mayor."
Even if it's not a winnable race, Democrats are keen to score a legit option because they think it'll help them hold the state House, which they control by a narrow 53-47 margin. But it's always easy to come up with lists of potential candidates; Fischer and Judd both appeared on a similar (longer) roster back in April. Finding someone who actually wants to run is a lot harder.
Gubernatorial:
● MO-Gov: Missouri Republicans are in the midst of a WWE-worthy cage match eight months out from their primary, and now they've reached the part of the bout where contenders are dragging each other outside of the ring and whaling on one another with folding chairs.
It started last week when ex-Democrat and newly self-appointed "conservative outsider" Eric Greitens picked up the phone to call one of his Republican primary opponents, John Brunner—a Richie Rich businessman who also, incidentally, is vying for the "conservative outsider" label. According to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Greitens was furious about a campaign website that had been linked to former Brunner aide and questioned his conservative bona fides, a sore spot for Greitens seeing as he'd been recruited to run for Congress by the DCCC as recently as 2010.
But unbeknownst to Greitens, the conversation was recorded (which is perfectly legal in Missouri), and wow did he sound unhinged. "Oh, John Brunner, oh my God, you are such a weasel! Are you going to meet tomorrow or not?" demanded Greitens, an ex-Navy SEAL, ominously warning his rival: "I can't wait to see you in person, John. I want to look in your eyes!"
The same shadowy group that put up the website that got under Greitens' skin quickly produced an amusing holiday-themed video mocking the bizarre outburst. Democrats also got into the fun with their own video titled "Meltdown" that mixes the audio of Greitens yelling his head off with videos of 1980s cultural icons Sam Kinison and John McEnroe unleashing their patented temper tantrums.
Team Blue would love it if Greitens' behavior undermined him with primary voters, since his $2 million bankroll and his clean-slate political record would make him a tough opponent in the general election. But they'll need much more than a web video to make the charge stick. So we'll have to wait and see if Greitens' Republican opponents feature audio of his unseemly eruption in some TV ads, or if Missouri Democrats—who are very familiar with the dark art of ratfucking GOP primaries—wind up doing the deed themselves.
House:
● AZ-01: Now the circle is complete: Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, who is running for Senate next year, has endorsed former state Sen. Tom O'Halleran to succeed her. O'Halleran had served in the legislature as a Republican until getting bounced in a primary in 2008; he nearly pulled off a comeback as an independent in 2014 and then formally joined the Democratic Party to run for Congress this year. While that pedigree might make some Democrats angsty, the establishment has embraced him and pretty much every other possible contender has decided to stay on the sidelines. With Kirkpatrick's stamp of approval, that should seal the deal.
Meanwhile, on the GOP side, a number of plausible candidates are in the mix. Last cycle, a nasty Republican primary helped saved Kirkpatrick despite this district's reddish hue and the pro-GOP wave. If O'Halleran's lucky, he'll benefit from another ugly Republican nomination battle.
● CA-16, CA State Assembly: Over the summer, Roll Call reported that labor groups were recruiting Assemblyman Henry Perea to challenge Rep. Jim Costa, a fellow Democrat. Perea never showed much interest in a campaign though, and it sounds like he's done with elected office for a while. On Tuesday, Perea announced that he would resign from the Assembly, and he says he's planning to take a government relations post in Sacramento.
It's unclear if labor still hopes to unseat Costa, who angered them after he supported the Trade Promotion Authority. Costa is one of the more conservative Democrats in the House (though Perea isn't exactly a liberal either) and he's a notoriously lazy campaigner who almost got unseated by a little-known Republican last year. Costa's 59-39 Obama Central Valley seat should be safe in 2016 with presidential year turnout but if Costa's on the ballot in 2018, he could very well jeopardize Team Blue's hold on this district once again.
Democrats are a few seats short of holding a supermajority in the state Assembly, and they can't afford to lose Perea's seat in a special election. Obama won AD-31 by a 62-36 margin, but Democratic special election turnout in the Central Valley is notoriously awful. Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown could schedule the special to coincide with the June primary, which could help Democratic turnout. However, if no one takes 50 percent, the top two candidates will compete in a runoff. Brown could instead set the special for an earlier date and have the June statewide primary coincide with the possible runoff. In any case, this seat will be up again in November 2016 for the full term.
● IA-01: Grr. It turns out that that IA-01 poll we wrote up in the previous Digest was really pretty worthless. The survey, from DFM Research on behalf of the union SMART, was of residents, not voters, which is pointless if you're asking electoral questions. While you do sometimes see political polls of "Americans," it's not common, and you certainly would never expect a horserace poll to ask non-voters for their opinions on actual elections. Pollsters and clients of pollsters, please don't do this.
● IA-02: GOP state Sen. Mark Chelgren has found a novel way to sabotage his own long shot congressional challenge right from the start:
"I think capital punishment should be considered for people who are felons and re-enter this country illegally, yes."
Even Chelgren's fellow Republicans aren't comfortable with the idea of handing out death sentences to people who break immigration laws; the state party chair declared that Chelgren's remarks "do not represent the values and the beliefs of Iowa Republicans." (They're also pretty unconstitutional.) Fortunately for Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack, Chelgren isn't backing down.
● IL-01, 15: Two Illinois House members face notable primary opponents. In the safely blue 1st District, Bobby Rush is being challenged by Chicago Alderman Howard Brookins. There's no sign that Rush is particularly vulnerable, though intra-party infighting could make things a little interesting here. The congressman's son Flynn Rush is trying to unseat state Rep. Barbara Flynn Currie, an ally of powerful Speaker Mike Madigan. It's worth watching to see if Madigan's forces try to go after the elder Rush to take some heat off Currie.
In the rural and safely red 15th District, Rep. John Shimkus faces state Sen. Kyle McCarter. McCarter is hoping that anti-establishment primary voters will reject the longtime congressman. However, powerful tea party friendly groups like the Club For Growth have yet to signal that they're ready to support McCarter's campaign.
● IL-03, 14: Two Illinois House members who looked potentially vulnerable to a primary challenge won't have anything to worry about in March. In the blue 3rd District, Dan Lipinski has done nothing to back away from his reputation as one of the House's most conservative Democrats. However, Lipinski has plenty of allies in the powerful Democratic establishment, and he once again doesn't face any primary opposition.
In the 14th District, there were reports that tea partying ex-Rep. Joe Walsh was looking to challenge incumbent Randy Hultgren. However, neither Walsh nor anyone else ended up filing to run against Hultgren in the GOP primary, which is the only game in town in this safely red seat.
● IL-07: While Democratic Rep. Danny Davis has been looking for a way to leave the House since 2006, he has filed to run for re-election in his safely blue Chicago seat once again. Davis only faces minor primary opposition: While local chamber of commerce leader Amara Enyia made noises about running, she didn't end up filing.
● IL-08: Of Illinois' 18 House members, only Senate candidate Tammy Duckworth isn't running for re-election. Three notable Democrats are running for Duckworth's open seat, with businessman Raja Krishnamoorthi starting with a massive financial edge against state Sen. Mike Noland and Villa Park Village President Deb Bullwinkel. Obama won this suburban Chicago seat 57-41, but the GOP is fielding DuPage County Commissioner Pete DiCianni, who only faces minor primary opposition.
● IL-10: Besides Sen. Mark Kirk, Republican Rep. Bob Dold! is almost certainly the most vulnerable member of Illinois' congressional delegation. Dold faces a third match against Democrat Brad Schneider: Schneider unseated him in a close race in 2012, and Dold narrowly returned the favor last year. However, Schneider needs to get past Highland Park Mayor Nancy Rotering in the primary first. Obama carried this suburban seat 58-41, but Republicans still do well downballot here.
● IL-11, 17: Rep. Bill Foster is the only Illinois House Democrat who even remotely vulnerable in a general election. DuPage County Commissioner Tonia Khouri is running, and she only faces minor opposition in the GOP primary, but she'll have her work cut out for her in this Obama 58-41 seat. The GOP tried targeting Quad Cities Rep. Cheri Bustos last year in the 17th District, but she easily won despite the GOP wave, and she only faces minor Republican opposition this time.
● IL-12, 13: Team Blue lost the 12th District last year to Mike Bost, but the new GOP congressman won't be easy to beat. The only Democrat to file was labor attorney C.J. Baricevic, who has not raised much money so far. Obama narrowly carried this suburban St. Louis seat in 2012, and we'll see if national Democrats rally behind Baricevic now that he's their only choice.
Democrats would also like to target Republican Rodney Davis in the nearby 13th District, but only ex-Macon County Commissioner Mark Wicklund is running. Wicklund entered the race without talking to the DCCC first, so it doesn't sound like he has a great relationship with national Democrats. 2012 Democratic nominee David Gill is running as an independent, making it even harder for Team Blue to score a pickup in this light red seat.
● KY-06: It's not going to be easy for Team Blue to unseat sophomore Republican Andy Barr in this 56-42 Romney seat, but last week, local Democrats provided a few potential names to Roll Call. One familiar face is state Rep. Sannie Overly, who was Jack Conway's running mate during his unsuccessful gubernatorial bid this fall. They also mention banker Luther Deaton and Colmon Eldridge, an aide to outgoing Gov. Steve Beshear. The filing deadline is Jan. 26, so possible contenders don't have too long to decide.
● NY-22: Democratic Assemblyman Anthony Brindisi recently expressed interest in running for this light red seat, and he may have company in the primary. Former Oneida County Legislator David Gordon has formed an exploratory committee, and says he'll make his decision in a few months.
Gordon may not have an easy time in a primary fight though. Gordon was a favorite of the Conservative Party, which usually aligns with the GOP. Gordon isn't making any effort to move to the left either, asking, "The district constantly elects moderate Republicans. How about electing a conservative Democrat?" Moderate Republican Rep. Richard Hanna faces a primary with conservative Assemblywoman Claudia Tenney, though Hanna has not yet announced if he's running for a fourth term.
Legislative:
● WI State Senate: If Democrats want to retake the Wisconsin state Senate anytime soon, they'll need two solid election cycles in a row. The GOP holds a 19 to 14 majority in the chamber, and Team Blue has one good target next year. Republican incumbent Rick Gudex, who narrowly won SD-18 while Romney was carrying it 50-49, recently announced that he would retire. Winnebago County Executive Mark Harris, who was Team Blue's nominee in WI-06 last year, was already running before Gudex called it quits.
If Harris wins and Democrats hold all their seats, they'll need another two pickups to take control of the chamber. Unfortunately, Democrats don't have any other good targets next year. Republican Luther Olsen represents a 51-48 Romney seat, but he pulled off an easy win in 2012. There are two Obama districts up in 2018 and if Democrats can take those without suffering any losses, they'll flip the Senate. But Democrats have very little room for error over the next three years.
● Specials: The special election gods giveth and the special election gods taketh away. Back in August, Georgia Democrats flipped a red state House seat in metro Atlanta, breaking the GOP's supermajority in the chamber. But on Tuesday, Team Red pulled off an unexpected win in Georgia's SD-43, a metro Atlanta seat that Obama carried by a hefty 71-28 margin. Ex-Rockdale County Commissioner JaNice Van Ness holds an 87-vote lead over Democrat Tonya Anderson, a former state representative, and there don't appear to be nearly enough provisional ballots to change the outcome.
It's hard to tell what went wrong for Anderson. It's no secret that Democrats tend to disproportionately stay home during special elections, but it's rarely anywhere near this bad. Ex-state Sen. Ronald Ramsey resigned to take a judgeship, so it's not like a scandal gave the GOP an opening here.
Van Ness, who also founded the Peachtree Academy Private Schools, is a lot more prominent than the usual Some Dude who runs in seemingly hopeless races like these, and she may have just gotten lucky in a low-turnout fight. Still, Van Ness won't have a fun time trying to hold on here when Democratic turnout will be far better.
Grab Bag:
● FL Redistricting: On Wednesday, Florida's Supreme Court affirmed a trial court's earlier ruling that instituted a new congressional map for the state, sealing an important victory for Democrats. Under the new lines, Democrats will be strongly favored to pick up two districts, the 10th and 13th, though they're now certain to lose the 2nd. Several other GOP-held seats will also become more competitive, including the 26th, so it wouldn't be unreasonable for Democrats to wind up netting two seats as a result of this court-ordered redistricting. For a detailed dive into the specifics of the new plan, check out Stephen Wolf's post.
We also have presidential election results broken down according to the new congressional districts.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.