Indiana GOP Gov. Mike Pence
Leading Off:
• IN-Gov: In an unexpected bit of news, former state House Speaker John Gregg managed to raised more money than GOP Gov. Mike Pence in the first six months of the year, $1.76 million to $1.63 million. Pence still has much more cash in the bank, $4.23 million versus $1.84 million, but it's nevertheless surprising to see an incumbent get outraised by a challenger. The Indianapolis Star notes that Gregg benefitted from several six-figure donations from labor unions, but it's only reasonable to conclude that these groups think Gregg, who lost by an unexpectedly close 3-point margin in 2012, has a real shot at finishing the job this time.
The other two Democrats vying with Gregg, meanwhile, have yet to make an impression. State Sen. Karen Tallian only raised $25,000, while state Superintendent of Public Instruction Glenda Ritz has not publicly reported her haul. The filing deadline is Wednesday night.
2Q Fundraising:
• FL-Sen: Ron DeSantis (R): $1 million raised, $2 million cash-on-hand
• MO-Sen: Roy Blunt (R-inc): $1.4 million raised, $3.8 million cash-on-hand; Jason Kander (D): $734,000 raised, $1.1 million cash-on-hand
• NC-Sen: Richard Burr (R-inc): $1.7 million raised, $3.8 million cash-on-hand
Senate:
• AZ-Sen: State Sen. Kelli Ward made it official on Tuesday: She's running against Sen. John McCain in next year's GOP primary. Outside conservative groups haven't given her the time of day (or even the day of the month), but McCain's campaign did pay her enough heed to attack her for hosting a public meeting last year that promoted "chemtrail" conspiracy theories.
It's probably the smart move: Ward may look like a weak challenger, but McCain led her by just a 44-31 margin in a May PPP poll. If primary voters are willing to accept her as an acceptably angry conservative alternative to McCain, that's a real problem for the incumbent. But if he can pull a John James Audubon and paint her as the whacko-bird she truly is, then McCain will be better able to keep Ward's hopes of an upset grounded.
House:
• CA-46: Until now, we hadn't heard Garden Grove Mayor Bao Nguyen mentioned much as a potential candidate for this safely blue seat. But Nguyen says he's considering a campaign here, noting that "[s]everal people have asked me to run...so I want to hear from people what they think."
Like Nguyen, many voters here are Vietnamese Americans (Nguyen came to the United States as a refugee from Vietnam), though they've traditionally leaned Republican. But while Garden Grove is a decent-sized city, only about 28 percent of it is in the 46th. Ex-state Sen. Lou Correa is already running here, and Anaheim City Councilor Jordan Brandman just opened up a campaign committee.
• FL-13: Mid-decade redistricting is likely to make this swing seat a bit bluer, and Republican Rep. David Jolly sounds ready to run for the Senate rather than stick around and face the music. But Team Red can still hold on if they get the right candidate, and they may be in luck. Former St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Baker says that he's considering, though he won't decide until the fall.
Baker won his 2005 re-election campaign in a landslide, and he left office four years later quite popular. But Baker has never had to campaign with an R next to his name (St. Petersburg elections are non-partisan) and he's never had to run in a presidential cycle. Baker also declined to seek a redder version of this seat in the 2014 special, so he may need some persuading this time. But Baker is definitely strong enough to keep this seat in GOP hands, and a duel between him and ex-Gov. Charlie Crist (who is also very popular in Pinellas County) would be quite the clash of the titans.
• IN-03: House primary polls conducted almost a year before Election Day aren't the most useful thing in the world, but state Sen. Liz Brown decided to release some numbers from Mark It Red. They give Brown a 34-11 lead over fellow state Sen. Jim Banks in the GOP primary for this safe seat. Manufacturing supervisor Scott Wise (who sounds like a Some Dude) and ex-Wisconsin state Sen. Pam Galloway take 5 and 3 respectively.
• IN-09: Republican Rep. Todd Young's decision to run for the Senate opens up his reliably red southern Indiana seat. State Sen. Brent Waltz wasted no time kicking off his campaign, and he does have some experience winning tough GOP primaries. Walz unseated powerful state Senate Finance Chairman Larry Borst in 2004 in what Brian Howey calls "one of the biggest upsets in modern General Assembly history."
Walz isn't going to have the primary to himself though. State Attorney General Greg Zoeller hasn't announced that he's in yet but he's already filed with the FEC. (Hat-tip Greg Giroux). Zoeller sounded very likely to run when he was asked a few days ago, so there's no real suspense here.
State Sen. Erin Houchin is openly mulling a bid, and she has already met with Republicans in D.C. State Rep. Peggy Mayfield hasn't said anything publicly herself, but the executive director of the state House Republican Campaign Committee confirms that Mayfield is "seriously considering."
Roll Call also mentions ex-Rep. Mike Sodrel as a possible candidate, though he has yet to say anything. Sodrel is most famous for his many bouts with Democrat Baron Hill, who is now running for Senate. (Hill won three of their four contests). Sodrel wanted a fifth match in 2010 but primary voters decided to spice things up by picking Young instead, who defeated Hill that November. Sodrel is wealthy and could make an impact, though Hoosiers may decide that they still want someone else.
The GOP legislature did everything they could to make this district unwinnable for Team Blue. Romney took 57 percent here and even 2012 GOP Senate nominee Richard Mourdock managed to narrowly carry this seat even as he was losing statewide 50-44. Howey mentions state Rep. Terry Goodin as a possible Democratic candidate, but there's no word if he's actually interested. Goodin holds a Romney 55-43 seat so he has won over conservative voters before, though a House race definitely wouldn't be easy.
• ME-02: Well, this isn't encouraging. The DCCC has rallied behind 2014 nominee Emily Cain as she seeks a rematch with freshman Republican Bruce Poliquin, but their support isn't translating into money. Cain raised only $152,000 during the last three months, far behind Poliquin's $379,000. The incumbent also has a hefty $950,000 warchest, while Cain only has $250,000 in the bank. Cain may also need to spend some dough in a primary with Bangor Councilor Joe Baldacci, though he's been quiet ever since he ignored his self-imposed June decision deadline. Obama won this seat 53-44 but the Pine Tree State is quite willing to send Republicans to Washington even in presidential years.
• MI-10: Ex-state Rep. Pete Lund initially sounded very interested in running for this open seat, and he seemed well-connected enough to make an impact. However, Lund (the architect of a failed plan to snatch some of Michigan's electoral votes for the GOP) has instead taken a job with the Koch's Americans for Prosperity, and he confirms he's not going to try and succeed retiring Rep. Candice Miller.
• NE-02: Freshman Democrat Brad Ashford has shown almost no interest in raising money to defend his red seat, so it's no surprise he turned in another sucky quarter. Ashford raised just $155,000 during the last three months and he has only $255,000 on hand.
But somehow, Ashford's GOP foes actually did worse. Retired Brig. Gen. Don Bacon brought in just $110,000 and holds $88,000 cash on hand. And ex-state Sen. Chip Maxwell, who threatened to run for this seat as an independent last year, didn't even pass the $10,000 mark. (It's not clear when, or even if, Maxwell actually announced that he'd run this cycle). Ashford unseated the odious Lee Terry last year and maybe he'll luck out by drawing another weak opponent. But the GOP bench is deep in this Romney 53-46 seat and if a tougher Republican enters the contest, there's a real chance that he or she could outraise the entire field without half trying.
• NH-01: Ever since Rep. Frank Guinta paid an FEC fine for a still-mysterious six-figure loan back in May, the Republican establishment has been looking for a way to get rid of him. Former University of New Hampshire Business School Dean Dan Innis, who lost to Guinta 50-40 in last year's primary, has been mulling another bid ever since the congressman's troubles became too embarrassing for the GOP to ignore, and he just filed to run again. Innis still maintains that he's only "exploring" another campaign, but there's no real doubt that he's going for it.
Innis would have a good shot at unseating Guinta in a rematch, but a few other Republicans could still run and split the anti-Guinta vote. We'll see if GOP bigwigs like Sen. Kelly Ayotte endorse Innis early to scare off other would-be contenders, or if they let things play out for now. Democrats will be targeting this seat no matter what, and Team Blue is definitely hoping for a bruising GOP primary.
• NV-04: Jon Ralston reports that retiring Sen. Harry Reid has informed former Assemblywoman Lucy Flores that he won't endorse her in the intensely crowded Democratic primary in Nevada's 4th Congressional District. Reid was a key figure in supporting Flores' very unsuccessful bid for lieutenant governor last year, but he's also close with state Sen. Ruben Kihuen, whom Ralston thinks Reid will ultimately support. (Former state Assembly Speaker John Oceguera and philanthropist Susie Lee are also in the race.)
What Democrats really need right now, though, is a candidate to run in the neighboring 3rd District. While the 4th is bluer, it's currently held by Republican Rep. Cresent Hardy; the 3rd, meanwhile, is swingier but open now thanks to Joe Heck's decision to run for Reid's seat. What's more, for the bold Democrat willing to take a shot at the 3rd, there's a much better shot at winding up as the nominee. With any luck, Reid will broker some kind of face-saving deal with his various protégés so that Democrats don't miss out on good shots at both seats.
• TX-23: National Democrats were excited when ex-Rep. Pete Gallego, who narrowly lost in an upset during last year's GOP wave, announced he'd seek a rematch against the guy who unseated him, Republican Will Hurd. But Gallego's first full quarter of fundraising yielded a fairly unimpressive $224,000 haul, leaving him with just $174,000 cash-on-hand. Hurd, meanwhile, has been raking: He took in $458,000 during the same time period and has $685,000 in the bank.
Gallego, however, has plenty of time to turn things around, and he's generally been a strong fundraiser. He took in $2.7 million last cycle and $1.8 million in 2012, when he wasn't an incumbent. He should also benefit from a more favorable environment in 2016, as well as a DCCC eager to take back this seat, but there's never any time to waste.
Grab Bag:
• President-by-LD:
Our project to calculate statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts returns to Virginia, which was the site of an unexpectedly tight Senate race last year. We're pleased to present the results of last year's contest between Democratic incumbent Mark Warner and Republican Ed Gillespie broken down according to state House, state Senate, and congressional district lines.
In addition, Stephen Wolf has created a special interactive map of Virginia's hotly contested state Senate above (a larger version is here). Each seat is mapped out and color-coded according to 2014's U.S. Senate winner and the party that holds each district in the state Senate: Dark blue seats show districts held by Democrats and won by Warner, while dark red seats show Republican districts won by Gillespie. Light red seats are also held by Republicans but carried by Warner, though there's only one of those, SD-10. (Gillespie did not win any seats held by Democratic legislators.)
For the second year in a row, Old Dominion polls overestimated Team Blue's margin of victory, though this time much more shockingly so. Warner turned back Gillespie 49-48, not much different than Gov. Terry McAuliffe's 48-45 win against Ken Cuccinelli in 2013. Warner carried 42 of the 100 seats in the state House, two fewer than McAuliffe. The two McAuliffe-Gillespie seats are both held by Republicans: HD-13 by ultra-conservative Del. Bob Marshall, and HD-31 by Del. Scott Lingamfelter. The entire state House is up this fall, and while Team Blue is hoping that they can dig themselves out of the 67-32 superminority they're stuck in, any chance at recapturing the chamber is a long way off.
The state Senate is another story. The GOP holds a bare 21-19 majority and Team Blue only needs to net one seat to take control because Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam would break ties for the Democrats. But both parties have plenty of targets, and Democrats aren't going to have an easy time turning out their base in a year where there are no statewide races on the ballot.
Warner and McAuliffe carried the same 20 state Senate seats, so there is a path to victory—one that runs through the previously mentioned 10th District, which retiring GOP state Sen. John Watkins is leaving open. Obama did carry one extra seat, SD-07, held by GOP state Sen. Frank Wagner. This Hampton Roads-area district went for Obama by less than a point, but for Cuccinelli 47-46 and Gillespie 50-47. Democrats will be on the defense elsewhere, though, so there's incredibly little room for error.
On a separate matter, a federal court recently ordered the state legislature to draw a new congressional map, ruling that Republicans illegally packed too many African Americans into the safely blue 3rd District. That's good news for Democrats, since the GOP currently holds eight of the commonwealth's 11 seats. Warner carried only the three Democratic-held districts, narrowly losing Scott Rigell's VA-02 by a 49-48 margin. Obama had carried the 2nd District 50-49, while McAuliffe took it 47-46.
You can find our complete results for all states here, and be sure to check out Wolf's other interactive maps here.
• Babka: At long last, we've finally published the results of the 2014 Daily Kos Elections prediction contest, and the winner is Sweden's own Tayya, who took top honors with an impressive 41 out of a possible 54 points. Click through to see how you stacked up, and congrats to Tayya, who earns some tasty, tasty babka for his efforts. Thanks to everyone who participated!
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, and Daniel Donner.