Compared to last week, Clinton is down 1.5 points and Sanders is up 0.8 points, or a net 2.3-point shift in the numbers, with the trend still in Sanders’ direction. We had two individual polls added to the aggregate since last week, including the POLL TO RULE ALL POLLS, Ann Selzer’s:
Selzer’s Iowa polling is pretty much the most accurate political polling of any kind in the country. When I take a guess at Iowa results, I’m simply going to use her last poll of the race. And if she has it neck-and-neck right now, well then, it’s neck-and-neck.
[Late update: Emerson College poll has Clinton leading Iowa 52-43. It is so fresh that is not yet reflected in the aggregate.)
New Hampshire has seen the biggest shift in the last week:
Compared to last week, Sanders is up 1 point, Clinton is down 1.8 points, for a net shift of 2.8 points.
The individual polls all show movement Sanders’ way:
|
SANDERS |
CLINTON |
ARG |
1/15-18 |
49 |
43 |
1/7-10 |
47 |
44 |
CNN/UNH |
1/13-18 |
60 |
33 |
11/30-12/7 |
50 |
40 |
So we have ARG, which isn’t a great pollster, saying Clinton has closed slightly lost some ground in the last two weeks, and University of New Hampshire, which is one of the worst pollsters, saying it’s a blowout. Frankly, I don’t trust either of these.
Both campaigns have pushed back against that CNN/UNH poll which brings us to two possibilities:
1) The campaigns are right, and those numbers are bunk. For what it’s worth, what I’m hearing from both campaigns is Sanders up by mid-single digits, but that could be b.s. for all I know.
2) The campaigns are lying, and the race is genuinely a Sanders rout. The Clinton campaign would lie about it for obvious reasons, while the Sanders campaign would lie about it to tamp down on possible complacency.
I think it’s the first option, but I’m not privy to any campaign’s inner data, just hearsay. So who knows? Either way, it’s still looking like Sanders’ race to lose.
The Sanders best-case scenario at this point is that he remain trailing Clinton in Iowa polling until caucus day, then he wins the state over-performing expectations. So trailing slightly puts him in a great place. Would’ve been nice for him to trail slightly in New Hampshire as well, but ultimately it doesn’t matter since the state was always a must-win for him.
As for Clinton, she can afford to lose both early states given the more favorable map ahead of her, but anything worse than a narrow loss would open up a floodgate of recriminations, hysteria, and finger-pointing among establishment Democrats that would dominate the news for weeks. So best case for her, she obviously wins both states, but at worse she needs to keep it close before moving to more demographically favorable territory.
REPUBLICANS
Compared to last week, Donald Trump is up 0.1 points, Ted Cruz is down two points, and Marco Rubio is down 1.6 points. Ben Carson is even slightly up, as he might be clawing back some of the support Cruz is losing on the birther issue.
|
TRUMP |
RELIGIOUS RIGHT |
ESTABLISHMENT |
Undecided |
Jan 21 |
37.1 |
29.1 |
24.3 |
6.8 |
Jan 13 |
37 |
29.6 |
24.6 |
5.4 |
Jan 7 |
36.9 |
29.5 |
25.8 |
3.7 |
Dec 6 |
34.7 |
29.1 |
25.6 |
7.8 |
Nov 4 |
28.4 |
34.1 |
27.3 |
7.4 |
Oct 4 |
28.1 |
27.6 |
30.4 |
6.9 |
Sep 7 |
31.8 |
27.7 |
23.5 |
6.9 |
Aug 3 |
24.5 |
20.6 |
36.7 |
8.4 |
Amazing how static that is, huh? Trump has certainly hit a ceiling, the tea party ceiling. None of these categories shifted more than half a point. Crazy! So here are the individual polls that have moved the aggregate over the last week:
|
TRUMP |
CRUZ |
RUBIO |
IPSOS/REUTERS |
1/16-20 |
36 |
12 |
8 |
1/9-13 |
38 |
14 |
6 |
MONMOUTH U |
1/15-18 |
36 |
17 |
11 |
12/10-13 |
41 |
14 |
10 |
MORNING CONSULT |
1/14-17 |
39 |
13 |
9 |
1/8-10 |
42 |
10 |
9 |
NBC/SURVEYMONKEY |
1/11-17 |
38 |
21 |
11 |
1/4-10 |
38 |
20 |
11 |
NBC/WSJ |
1/9-13 |
33 |
20 |
13 |
12/6-9 |
27 |
22 |
15 |
Yawn. Okay, how about Iowa? Last week it was a 27.5-26.9 Trump lead over Cruz. This week? That lead is down to 27.2-27.0.
|
TRUMP |
CRUZ |
RUBIO |
Monmouth U |
1/18-19 |
25 |
27 |
9 |
1/7-10 |
19 |
24 |
17 |
LORAS College |
1/13-18 |
26 |
25 |
13 |
12/7-10 |
23 |
30 |
11 |
Flip a coin, or maybe not, since that late-breaking Emerson college poll claims a Trump surge, now leading in Iowa 33-23 over Cruz. Given that there is no indication that Trump has any ground game, it’ll be interesting to see if Cruz’s very real operation can overcome Trump’s celebrity campaign.
Meanwhile, it’s hard to see how Trump loses in New Hampshire.
Compared to last week, Trump is up 1.7 points, Rubio is down 1.8 points, and John Kasich, who is supposedly SURGING in the state, is up 1.7 points all the way up to 12.2 percent. Who gives a shit?
|
TRUMP |
RUBIO |
KASICH |
CRUZ |
ARG |
1/15-18 |
27 |
10 |
20 |
9 |
1/7-10 |
25 |
14 |
14 |
9 |
CNN/UNH |
1/13-18 |
24 |
10 |
6 |
14 |
11/30-12/7 |
32 |
14 |
7 |
6 |
All right, I guess that 20 percent in ARG’s poll has raised eyebrows, but I wouldn’t stake my reputation on ARG’s numbers. And even if Kasich gets second (or even first!), do you really see him going anywhere afterward? South Carolina and Nevada will chew him up, and so will the “SEC primary” (mostly Southern states on March 1). So yeah, I still don’t give a shit, other than laugh at a potential audition for yet another Republican establishment loser. I guess Rubio’s audition is over. He didn’t get the job.