One more on the series of Delegate Mathematics diaries. Vermont is interesting not just for being home of Bernie Sanders, but also because it has just 1 congressional district.
Basic Data: Vermont has 16 delegates available. There is just 1 Congressional Districts. So including state-wide allocations of PLEOs (Party leaders and elected officials) and at-large delegates there are however 3 different delegate allocation units. Congressional District has 11 delegates. Additionally 2PLEOs and 3 at-large are allocated based on state-wide results. In case of Vermont, the same result used in 3 different categories to allocate delegates.
Delegates Acquired
Out of available
|
11Del
CD
|
3DEL
State-wide
|
2 del
PLEOs
|
Delegate Allocation Threshholds/Triggers
1 del |
15 |
16.7 |
25 |
2 del |
15 |
50 |
75 |
3 del |
22.73 |
83.4 |
|
4 del |
31.83 |
|
|
5 del |
40.91 |
|
|
6 del |
50 |
|
|
7 del |
59.1 |
|
|
8 del |
68.2 |
|
|
9 del |
77.3 |
|
|
10 del |
85 |
|
|
11 del |
85 |
|
|
Due to only 2 delegates in PLEO category, the viability threshold for this is 25%. Similarly with only 3 delegates in at-large category the viability threshold is 16.7%. Usual 15% viability condition applies to District based 11 delegate allocation.
For 11 Delegates at CD: The first two delegates are very cheap to acquire with just 15% votes. Third delegate available at 22.73%. Subsequently roughly 9% vote equals 1 delegate. There are many trigger points which award additional delegate. Advantageous break occurs at crossing 50% to obtain (6-5) split.
For 2 PLEOs: The first is cheap at 25% however the second one costs a whopping 75% votes. Without a total collapse of a campaign most likely split is (1-1).
For 3 Delegates Statewide (At-Large): The first delegate costs only 16.7%. Trigger at 50% gives the delegate advantage split of (2-1). To get all delegates 83.4% would be needed.
When we combine the triggers for all allocations, there are eleven different triggers between 15% and 85%. The triggers show some clumping at 25%, 50% and 75%.
For instance, looking around at 25% area: Out of total 16 delegates, acquired share for 25% is 5 delegates, for 50% it is 8 delegates and 75% is 12 delegates.
Looking at 50% area: vote share just under 50% gives 7 delegates but votes just above 50% gives 9 delegates. The 50% trigger boundary is extra sensitive and has a 2 Delegate award.
Next bit is my personal opinion: Every odd break will go on Sanders favour. This being Sanders home state and supposed home advantage. With 68.2% votes sanders will achieve 10 delegates. This appears to be well within reason. The next extra delegate will require 75% votes. While Sanders undoubtedly has the advantages here, I do not think that it extends to 75%. In terms of numbers, I am expecting Clinton's core support that will turn out to be around 55,000 votes. However how much percentage this will contribute to will depend on overall turnout. So my estimates for state total is (10-6) In favour of Sanders.
Goal for Sanders is to try and cross 75% for maximum benefit split in PLEO and for the story pull of denying Clinton a delegate in that category. (12-4) . For Clinton to contain Sanders to under 68.2%
Previously covered states: South-Carolina and Virginia and Massachusetts might be of interest.
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
For a break I suggest reading our own guavaboy diaries http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/02/04/1479720/-Take-a-quick-holiday-from-the-Bernie-vs-Hilary-madness-and-try-Nepal-for-truly-arcane-politics