Idaho specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on delegate allocation of its 23 Delegates. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories.
Basic Data: Idaho has 23 delegates available. There are 2 Congressional Districts. So including state-wide allocations PLEO and at-large delegates, there are 4 different delegate allocation units. Number of delegates available in each are as follows: 8 from CD1; 7 from CD2. Additionally 3 PLEOs and 5 At-large delegates allocated from state-wide results.
Caucus Information: Caucus is scheduled for 22nd March 2016. Idaho operates an open caucus. Uncommitted/Undeclared is a candidate by default. Caucus is held at county level in every county. It is open for everyone upon declaring themselves to be democrats and not participate in other parties primary events. Party affiliation can be changed on the day of the caucus.
More information here http://idahodems.org/caucus/ including location and other details of caucus for each county. Counties elect delegates to state/district conventions.
No Delegate Tampering: The caucus results are binding on a delegate. A delegate at each stage must vote for their declared candidate unless the candidate withdraws or becomes unviable at the next stage. Uncommitted are allowed to change their preference once and must stick to the subsequent preference like other delegates.
Congressional District Based Delegate Allocation Triggers: (See table below). Due to proportional representation formula being used to allocate delegates from various districts, the number of delegates each candidate wins changes at certain specific percentage levels. Crossing/going past the vote percentages at those levels triggers a change in number of delegates awarded. The triggers for congressional districts based allocations are listed below.
Delegates Acquires
Out of available
|
7 DEL
CD2
|
8 del
cd1
|
Delegate Allocation Triggers
1 del |
15 |
15 |
2 del |
21.4 |
18.8 |
3 del |
35.7 |
31.3 |
4 del |
50 |
43.8 |
5 del |
64.3 |
56.3 |
6 del |
78.6 |
68.8 |
7 del |
85 |
81.3 |
For 7 Delegates at CD2: First two delegates are cheap at 15% and 21.4%. Within the range of 35.7 — 50 the 3 delegates each will be allocated. The fight for the 7th delegate is again precariously balanced at 50% marker to make the overall break 4-3 split. To achieve a 5-2 split votes need to be at 64.3% or higher. To maintain competitiveness, each campaign should be aiming to maintain at least 35.7% vote share and retain a 3 delegates and then slug it out for final odd delegate for an advantage.
For 8 Delegates at CD1: Any vote share between 43.8% and 56.3% will result in a 4-4 delegate split. Crossing a threshold trigger 56.3% results in two delegate advantage 5-3. The next trigger at 68.8% for 6-2 split. A 7-1 split is just extremely improbable it needs 81.3%.
Delegate Allocations Based On State-Wide Results: (See table Below) Statewide results work towards two different category of delegates; 3 PLEOs and 5 At-Large delegates. The small numbers of delegates available in these categories also mean that a larger movement in support/vote level would be needed for delegate advantages. With both allocations being odd numbers, winner of state-wide results will have at least 2 delegate advantage.
Due to very small number of triggers a single combined table showing each individual vote share % trigger point and the corresponding number of delegates in each category.
Vote Share % |
15 |
16.7 |
30 |
50 |
70 |
83.3 |
85 |
State-Wide Delegate Allocation Triggers
PLEO (3DEL) |
0 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
At-Large (5 Del) |
1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
For 3 PLEO: The first delegate is very cheap to acquire with just 16.7% votes. second delegate available to whoever manages to get more than 50% votes. That final delegate requires a whopping 83.3% votes. This will break 2-1 giving the statewide count winning candidate one delegate advantage.
For 5 State-wide (At-Large) Delegates: First delegate acquired at 15%, second delegate at 30.%. Third delegate trigger is precariously balanced at 50%. Fourth delegate costs a whopping 70%. available. Goal for both Campaign is to cross the 50% and obtain a 3-2 split in their favour. One again the statewide winner gets an extra delegate advantage in this category too.
Rural /Low Population Caucus Peculiarity: Idaho, due to its low population like other similar places, apart from a few high population counties, most have just a handful of delegates elected to state/district convention. Plenty have under 5 delegates. However overall impact of these are not likely to not exceed influencing more than 1 national Convention Delegate even if won by same person by tiny majority. So the important numbers will come from just a few counties (Ada, Bannock, Bonneville, Canyon, Kootenai). For those who really want the details. Here is the county specific numbers to districts blurb.
Ada 118, ( CD1 52, CD2 66); Adams 2; Bannock 24; Bear Lake 1; Benewah 3; Bingham 7; Blaine 12; Boise 2; Bonner 13; Bonneville 20; Boundary 3; Butte 1; Camas 1; Canyon 34; Caribou 1; Cassia 3; Clark 1; Clearwater 2; Custer 1; Elmore 5; Franklin 1; Fremont 2; Gem 4; Gooding 3; Idaho 4; Jefferson 3; Jerome 3; Kootenai 35; Latah 15; Lemhi 2; Lewis 1; Lincoln 1; Madison 3; Minidoka 3; Nez Perce 12; Oneida 1; Owyhee 2; Payette 4; Power 2; Shoshone 5; Teton 4; Twin Falls 14; Valley 4; Washington 2; TOTAL 384..
The deciding numbers/percentages and triggers are still the same even at county levels.
Next bit is my personal opinion only: The county to watch will be Ada which contributes parts of it towards both districts in higher numbers. Followed closely by Bannock, Bonneville, Canyon, Kootenai. I expect Bernie to have an advantage due to it being a caucus caucus effect. However I expect Clinton to hold fort and only concede the 1 delegate advantage in each odd delegate breaking.
In 8 delegate CD, I expect it to break (4-4) as it only needs 43.8% for Clinton to hold even break.
In 7 Delegate CD2, I expect it to break (4-3) in favour of Sanders. The next level would need Clinton to be below 35.7% which given the basic core level of consistent support, will not happen.
Overall statewide, again I expect Sanders to split the delegates in favour at (2-1) PLEO and (3-2) at-large which needs breaking past 50% level. But for next level it needs 70% which again will not happen.
Total for state delegates splitting (13-10) in Sanders favour.
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Dedicated results tracker which gets updated after each primary/caucus here Democratic-Primary-Pledged-Delegates-Results-Tracker-Delegate-Mathematics
Today's shout outs to BostonBilly
Big oodles of thank you to Baja Arizona Kossaks and copymark for republishing -Arizona-Delegate-Mathematics-75-Dels