Rhode Island specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on delegate allocation of its 24 Delegates. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories. Statewide Rhode Island Democratic Party is affiliated with and participates in Presidential Nomination with National Democratic Party umbrella.
Basic Data: Rhode has 24 delegates available. There are 2 Congressional Districts. So including state-wide allocations PLEO (Part Leaders and Elected Officials) and at-large delegates, there are 4 different delegate allocation units. Number of delegates available in each are as follows: 7 from CD2 and 8 from CD1. Additionally 3 PLEOs and 6 At-large delegates allocated from state-wide results. With 2 out of 4 allocation units having an odd number of delegates opportunity for definitive delegate advantages exist.
Primary Election Information: Primary ballot/vote is scheduled for 26th April 2016. It is a semi-open (modified, whatever). Participation is open only to registered members of the Democratic Party and Independents or Unaffiliated. Party affiliation is changed upon casting a vote on Democratic Party Ballot. Voter registration must be completed 30 days prior to the primary (by 27th March). There is still time to register to vote in General Election. Same day registration is not available. Extra caution for party affiliation, unless unaffiliated, the party affiliation switching deadline was 27th of Jan. Unaffiliated can still vote.
Voter ID Laws: Rhode Island has very strict and stringent Photo Identification requirements regarding voter id. A valid photo ID required for all voter. More details here on what is acceptable http://www.elections.ri.gov/voting/id.php and http://sos.ri.gov/divisions/elections/Voters/voter-id
List from RI SoS: RI Driver's License, RI Voter ID Card *, U.S. Passport, ID issued by a U.S. educational institution, U.S. military ID, ID card issued by the United States or the State of Rhode Island, Government issued medical card.
Provisional ballots may still be cast — http://www.elections.state.ri.us/voting/provisional.php
{Update from Rugbymum: It includes any ID issued by a government entity within RI or Federal. We accept VA cards, RIPTA-issued elderly/disabled bus passes, and both employee and student IDs from any RI college (private or public). About the only type of ID that has caused difficulty is out-of-state drivers’ licenses. That makes sense to me because if you’re a resident of RI, you are legally required to get a RI license within 30 days of moving here — and if you’re not a resident of RI, you’re not eligible to vote here}
Free Photo ID Cards: Good element is that, The Rhode Island Secretary of State's office is issuing free voter photo ID cards to individuals who do not possess any of the valid Photo IDs listed above http://sos.ri.gov/divisions/elections/Voters/voter-id
Mail Voting/Early Voting/Absentee Voting: A full no excuse absentee voting by mail is available. This means an excuse for voting by mail is not required. Early/absentee voting by mail can be done for any election. More details here — http://www.elections.ri.gov/voting/mailballot.php
Congressional District Based Delegate Allocation Triggers: (See table below). Due to proportional representation formula being used to allocate delegates from various districts, the number of delegates each candidate wins changes at certain specific percentage levels. Crossing/going past the vote percentages at those levels triggers a change (increase) in number of delegates awarded. The triggers for congressional districts based allocations are listed below. With only one district having odd number of delegates, there is sort of an opportunities for advantages.
Delegates ACquired
Out of available
|
7 del
CD2
|
8 del
CD1
|
Delegate Allocation Triggers
1 del |
15 |
15 |
2 del |
21.4 |
18.8 |
3 del |
35.7 |
31.3 |
4 del |
50 |
43.8 |
5 del |
64.3 |
56.3 |
6 del |
78.6 |
68.8 |
7 del |
85 |
81.3 |
8 del |
|
85 |
For 7 Delegates at CD2 : First two delegates are cheap at 15% and 21.4%. Within the range of 35.7% — 50% the 3 delegates each will be allocated. The fight for the 7th delegate is again precariously balanced at 50% marker to make the overall break 4-3 split. To achieve a 5-2 split votes need to be at 64.3% or higher. To maintain competitiveness, each campaign should be aiming to maintain at least 35.7% vote share and retain a 3 delegates and then slug it out for final odd delegate for an advantage by crossing 50%. This district will provide an opportunity to gain delegate advantages.
For 8 Delegates at CD1: First two delegates are cheap at 15% and 18.8%. Any vote share between 43.8% and 56.3% will result in a 4-4 delegate split. Crossing a threshold trigger 56.3% results in two delegate advantage 5-3. The next trigger at 68.8% for 6-2 split. Unless there is some major event 68.8% is quite a huge barrier. 7-1 split is just extremely improbable it needs 81.3%. Aim here would be to attempt for 56.3% or better vote share and grab the 2 delegate advantage of 5-3 split.
Delegate Allocations Based On State-Wide Results: Statewide results work towards two different category of delegates; 6 At-Large delegates and 3 pledged PLEO delegates. Statewide winner will only get delegate advantage if the vote share exceeds the trigger for additional delegate. Due to very large number of delegates small changes are enough to trigger additional delegate allocations.
The table below shows all triggers together with corresponding delegate numbers in each category. Statewide winner will have at least one delegate advantage in PLEO category.
Vote Share% |
15 |
16.7 |
25 |
41.7 |
50 |
58.4 |
75 |
83.4 |
85 |
Triggers and State-wide Delegates for Vote% Share
PLEOs (3) |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
At-Large Del(6)
|
1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
For 3 Pledged PLEOs: Viability for this is 16.7% and not 15%. At 50% vote share a delegate advantage is achieved with (2-1) split. The third delegate costs 83.4%
For 6 Delegates State-wide (at-large): (See tables above.) Because of very low number of available delegates, the incremental steps are fairly large. very high 16.7% votes translates to 1 delegate. Crossing 15% threshold gives a starting point of 1 delegates. second delegate at expensive at 25%. Between 41.7% — 58.4% delegates are split evenly (3-3). Gaining advantage requires crossing the 58.4% boundary for a 4-2 delegate split.
Taking all statewide the triggers combined, there are very few triggers all of which only cause a single delegate switch and are dispersed widely.
In statewide results, just crossing 50% gives a (5-4) split.
Some Casual Scenarios: Once again with so much interest in margins and delegate acquiring numbers, I thought I would add a few numbers and save interested people the hassle of having to do mathematics on the fly.
All calculations in the next bit, based on uniform distribution of votes (ie. same proportion of votes in all districts). Vote share percentages based on relative vote share of two candidates. Implied assumptions, there are two qualifying candidates, all others receive less than qualifying (aka viability threshold) votes.
For anyone who wants to verify the numbers:
Step by step, for each state, for each allocation unit ( each district, PLEO, at-large),
delegates_acquired = rounded value of (total_delegates_available x (decimal_vote_share))
where, decimal_vote_share = votes_for_candidate/total_valid_votes
Viability_threshold = higher value of {100/(2 x total_delegates_available) or 15}
Where are the interesting numbers?: Triggers are spread far and wide. Trigger at 50% gives two delegate advantage. Apart from that all other triggers below 85% only move one delegate. These are at 56.3, 58.4, 64.3, 68.8, 75, 78.6, 81.3, 83.4
Lets See Some Interesting Numbers:
Scraping past 50%: districts (4+4) statewide (2+3). Total 13 vs 11
Scraping past 56.3%: districts (4+5) statewide (2+3). Total 14 vs 10
Scraping past 58.4%: districts (4+5) statewide (2+4). Total 15 vs 9
Scraping past 64.3%: districts (5+5) statewide (2+4). Total 16 vs 8
Scraping past 68.8%: districts (5+6) statewide (2+4). Total 17 vs 7
Scraping past 75%: districts (5+6) statewide (2+5). Total 18 vs 6
Scraping past 78.6%: districts (6+6) statewide (2+5). Total 19 vs 5
Next (Rest of) bit is my personal opinion:
Background: Very few delegates available in the state. For all candidates, just a comfortable win with a tad more than 50% helps to notch up the number of states won counter for campaign is probably the best they can hope for. Any substantial gains in delegate advantages require a very large shift in support from one campaign to other.
While the state is definitely reliable Democratic Party land, there have been occasional notable Republican presence. The Republican side nevertheless has been notably socially liberal (Nelson Rockerfeller Republicans).
On a side note: Chafee clan has now successfully transformed itself through its current patriarch (Lincoln Chafee) from a Republican to a Democratic Clan. So expecting a few more Chafees in the Democratic party politics. I am still expecting roughly 2% votes for Chafee even though he is not on the ballot.
Democratic Party Electorate: The Democratic party affiliation registration is disproportionately higher than Republican party registration. Participation is usually higher percentage compared to other states, but fairly static at the state itself.
Mail Based Early/Absentee Voting: The enactment of no excuse needed for mail voting was a very transformative step for the state. Any campaign that is able to utilise this amongst its core base is likely to do very well. However this does require organizational abilities and more importantly realising that there are deadlines involved. Clinton campaigns organizational strength tends to do well in these are.
Party Affiliation Changing deadlines: The deadline for changing party was 27th Jan. This will limit how many people are able to switch from Republican to Democrats. However since only roughly 10% people are registered Republicans, it probably does not matter. 40% electorate is registered democrats, this probably makes it a better scenario for Clinton.
Unaffiliated however can vote, and this makes about 50% of electorate. A good prospect for Sanders. The independents however might be more inclined towards Clinton, as they have successfully elected occasional socially liberal Republicans to state government and US Senate.
Liberal Republicans: Edward DiPrete, a three term Governor of Rhode Island and Buddy Cianci, a rotating mayor of Providence put others in the country to shame at their ability to resurface after corruption and even convictions.
However much the damage to republican electorate they might have done, they nevertheless moved the Republicans to sufficiently social liberalism and invested in enough social and infrastructure to make other types of Republicans are non-existent in the state. Socially liberal Republicans have been very frequently successful at elections despite the fact that most times Republicans are hard pressed to find enough candidates to field in elections. This is more likely to go in favour of Clinton than Sanders as the electorate of polarized crossover appeals for Sanders is small.
Campaign Organization: Sanders campaign probably benefits from early footprint in the state. Informal early presence has been around from the same time he announced the run. Once again, Clinton campaign relying on its long term allies and partners for much of the organizational support.
State-wide Primaries: While many other states holding Presidential preference primaries around the same time have local/state primaries coinciding, the state primaries here are not scheduled until mid-August. So any boost from primaries will be missing.
Now for district by district: {I apologise for a minimal presentation here. This is primarily due to my own shortcomings and lack of knowledge. There might have been perhaps a hint of admiration as resilience of Buddy Cianci and John Chafee.
Please add and share your thoughts and insights about Rhode Island, this forgotten moulding clay everyone ignores}
CD1 (8 Delegates): Consisting of Providence, Bristol and Newport. Rough Demographics: 79% White, 8% Black, 4% Asian. Reliably democratic district with occasional talented Republicans showing up to give a good competition. Expecting Clinton to do well with core Democratic party base. Providence and the surrounding black population likely to be more favourable to Clinton.
expecting the district to break favourably for Clinton (5-3) with just 56.4%.
CD2 (7 Delegates): Western half of the state. Rough Demographics: 84% White, 4% Black, 3% Asian. Another reliably democratic district. here also expecting Clinton to do well with core Democratic party base.
Expecting the district to break favourably for Clinton (4-3) with just over 50%.
Overall statewide Clinton breaking in around 57% giving total delegates of 14vs10.
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
Those that are interested in targets and such for April: here is one I wrote up previously for -Performance-Targets-For-Bernie-Sanders-April-Delegate-Mathematics based on (DK spirit mathematical collaboration) -Bernie-s-path-to-victory-Wisconsin-and-Beyond from Subir
For those you want an inkling about what to expect for those first footsteps into political ladder, here from Chris Reeves another fantastic jewel -Nuts-amp-Bolts-Inside-a-Democratic-Campaign-Recognizing-And-Building-Community and whole series at Nuts and Bolts/history
For the quartermasters of revolutions, this is the time to prepare for contesting 2017/2018 state and federal elections.