State by state performance targets for April based on delegate targets from our stalwart promoter and Sanders champion Subir. This is a quick lookup table/cue card for the goals and targets for some of the upcoming events. This is provided as is with the hope that it will help people work towards their targets. The percentage vote share for each state is calculated from targeted number of delegates.
{Note_To_Self: Add link to Subirs Diary on edit. Subir if you are reading this, mail me the link please and a nice photo of something.} Link to targets list and story and such here -Bernie-s-path-to-victory-Wisconsin-and-Beyond
There are plenty of diaries exhorting, promoting active participation. I, while a DWS supporter, on a personal and philosophical level, indiscriminately support all active participation.
Hopefully what is detailed below will help people work towards their targets. I have attempted to list some key vote share percentages required to make an impact on actual delegate numbers acquired/earned. The target numbers for Bernie Sanders is used directly from Subir’s story. These are set by Subir and might have a slight variation from 538 targets. Hopefully this will help people campaign for their candidate with a bit better information about what is needed.
Due to proportional representation formula being used to allocate delegates from various districts, the number of delegates each candidate wins changes at certain specific percentage levels. Crossing/going past the vote percentages at those levels triggers a change in number of delegates awarded. So naturally it would be handy to have a quick lookup table for each state and performance required. Numbers presented are based on uniform performance across all districts.
On a state by state basis, Bernie Sanders target for winning in bold below with some extra information on what to expect slightly below target and what to expect beyond target.
Wisconsin (Target 53 out of 86 — Open Primary) {This target seems unusually low}. More detailed — -Wisconsin-Delegate-Mathematics-86-Dels. Only 3 districts with odd number of delegates (and one from statewide). Major delegate movements happen at 50, 55, 58.4, 65, 70, 75 percentages.
Just scraping above 50%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (3+12+4+5+6=30) and from statewide (5+10=15) with overall results 45vs41
At 55%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (3+12+4+6+6=31) and from statewide (6+10=16) with overall results 47vs39
At 58.4%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (3+16+4+6+6=35) and from statewide (6+11=17) with overall results 52vs34
At 60.6% (Target is here), uniformly distributed translates to from districts (3+16+4+6+7=36) and from statewide (6+12=18) with overall results 54vs32
At 65%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (3+16+5+7+7=38) and from statewide (7+12=19) with overall results 57vs29
Just scraping above 70%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (4+16+5+7+8=40) and from statewide (7+13=20) with overall results 60vs26
Just scraping above 75%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (4+20+5+8+8=45) and from statewide (8+14=22) with overall results 67vs19
Wyoming (Target 10 out of 14 — Closed Caucus): {This target seems low given WA, AK, HI performance} More detailed here: -Wyoming-Delegate-Mathematics-14-Dels
Single district, single result ah so simpler to see. Delegate numbers change at 56.3, 62.5, 68.8, 75, 81.3, 85 percentages.
Just scraping past 50% translates to (4+2+1=7)
at 56.3% translates to (5+2+1=8) at 62.5% translates to (5+3+1=9)
at 68.8% Target is here translates to (6+3+1=10)
at 75% translates to (6+3+2=11)
at 81.3% translates to (7+3+2=12)
at 85% translates to (8+4+2=14)
New York (Target 138 out of 247 — Closed Primary): {Target seems too low. there is not much difference between targets from 134 to 154.. all need same level of support} More detailed here: -New-York-Delegate-Mathematics-247-Dels
Only 9 districts with odd number of delegates. Major delegate movements happen at 50, 58.4, 64.3, 70, 75, 78.6 percentages. Frequent and regular transition of 1 delegate due to statewide results occur at every 1.9 and every 3.3 percentages.
Just scraping above 50%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (12+54+20=86) and from statewide (15+27=42) with overall results 128vs119
At 55%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (12+54+20=86) and from statewide (17+30=47) with overall results 133vs114
At just below 58.4%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (12+54+20=86) and from statewide (17+31=48) with overall results 134vs113
At 58.4% (So Target is here), uniformly distributed translates to from districts (12+72+20=104) and from statewide (18+32=50) with overall results 154vs93
Just below 64.3%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (12+72+20=104) and from statewide (19+35=54) with overall results 158vs89
At 64.3%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (12+72+25=109) and from statewide (19+35=54) with overall results 163vs84
Connecticut (Target 31 out of 55 — Closed Primary): {Target might seems too low, but next movement requires a lot higher percentage support.} More detailed here: -Connecticut-Delegate-Mathematics-55-Dels
Most ( 4 out of 5) districts with odd number of delegates. Major delegate movements happen at 50, 64.3 percentages. Next big movement is at 78.6%. Minor movements at 54.2 and 56.3 and 62.5 percentages.
Just scraping above 50%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (16+4=20) and from statewide (4+6=10) with overall results 30vs25
At 54.2% (So Target is here), uniformly distributed translates to from districts (16+4=20) and from statewide (4+7=11) with overall results 31vs24
At 56.3%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (16+5=21) and from statewide (4+7=11) with overall results 32vs23
At just below 64.3%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (16+5=21) and from statewide (4+8=12) with overall results 33vs22
At 64.3%, uniformly distributed translates to from districts (20+5=25) and from statewide (5+8=13) with overall results 38vs17
Delaware (Target 11 out of 21 — Closed Primary): {Target might seems too low, but next movement requires a lot higher percentage support.} More detailed here: -Delaware-Delegate-Mathematics-21-Dels
Due to small number of total delegates, there are small movements only scattered over long ranges. Big delegate movement at 75% vote share.
Just scraping above 50% (Target is here), uniformly distributed translates to: from districts (3+4=7) and from statewide (1+3=4) with overall results 11vs10
At 56.3%, uniformly distributed translates to: from districts (3+5=8) and from statewide (1+3=4) with overall results 12vs9
At just below 75%, uniformly distributed translates to: from districts (3+6=9) and from statewide (1+4=5) with overall results 14vs7
At just 75%, uniformly distributed translates to: from districts (6+6=12) and from statewide (2+4=6) with overall results 18vs3
Maryland (Target 46 out of 95 — Closed Primary): {Target is set with not conceding too many delegates to state winner} More detailed here — -Maryland-Delegate-Mathematics-95-Dels
Half (4 out of 8) districts with odd number of delegates. Small (ish??) change at 50% and 55% and 56.3%, 61.2%, 64.3%, 65% otherwise mostly just mediocre sporadic delegate changes.
Scraping past 50%: districts (3+4+4+4+4+5+5+5), statewide (5+11). Total 50 vs 45
Just under 56.3%: districts (3+4+4+4+4+5+5+6), statewide (6+12). Total 53 vs 42
Scraping past 56.3%: districts (3+4+4+5+5+5+5+6), statewide (6+12). Total 55 vs 40
Scraping past 61.2%: districts (4+4+4+5+5+6+6+6), statewide (6+13). Total 59 vs 36
Scraping past 64.3%: districts (4+5+5+5+5+6+6+6), statewide (6+14). Total 62 vs 33
Scraping past 65%: districts (4+5+5+5+5+6+6+7), statewide (7+14). Total 64 vs 31
Target is at 50% competitive: Allowing for a very tight election and loss of delegates in a district being compensated by gains in another district. CD2, CD5, CD6, CD7 all out effort needed to flip as many as possible to above 50% to win.
Pennsylvania (Target 106 out of 189 — Closed Primary): {Quite possible to attempt to exceed target in some districts} More detailed here —{Link pending: wiIl Arrive shortly} -Pennsylvania-Delegate-Mathematics-189-Dels
Half (9 out of 18) of the districts with odd number of delegates. Major delegate movements happen at 50, 56.3, 58.4, 61.2, 64.3, 70, 75, 78.6 percentages. Frequent and regular transition of 1 delegate due to statewide results occur at every 2.4 and every 5 percentages due to large number of delegates.
Scraping past 50%: districts (12+18+12+4+10+5+7) statewide (10+21). Total 99 vs 90
Scraping past 53.6%: districts (12+18+12+4+10+6+8) statewide (11+23). Total 104 vs 85
Scraping past 56.3% (Target is here): districts (12+18+12+5+10+6+8) statewide (11+24). Total 106 vs 83
Just under 58.4%: districts (12+18+12+5+10+6+8) statewide (12+24). Total 107 vs 82
Scraping past 58.4%: districts (12+24+12+5+10+6+8) statewide (12+25). Total 114 vs 75
Scraping past 61.2%: districts (12+24+12+5+12+6+9) statewide (12+26). Total 118 vs 71
Just under 64.3%: districts (12+24+12+5+12+6+9) statewide (13+27). Total 120 vs 69
Scraping past 64.3%: districts (12+24+15+5+12+6+9) statewide (13+27). Total 123 vs 66
{While target is set at 106 vs 83 roughly needing 56.3% vote share, fully expecting a full Sanders campaign assault at attempting to make those extra gains at 58.4% in some of the districts.}
Rhode Island (Target 14 out of 24 — Modified Primary): {} More detailed here —{Link pending: WiIl Arrive shortly} -Rhode-Island-Delegate-Mathematics-23-Dels
Not many opportunities for delegate advantage here as only one delegate switches with each milestone.
Scraping past 50%: districts (4+4) statewide (2+3). Total 13 vs 11
Scraping past 56.3% (Target is here): districts (4+5) statewide (2+3). Total 14 vs 10
Scraping past 58.4%: districts (4+5) statewide (2+4). Total 15 vs 9
Scraping past 64.3%: districts (5+5) statewide (2+4). Total 16 vs 8
Scraping past 68.8%: districts (5+6) statewide (2+4). Total 17 vs 7
Scraping past 75%: districts (5+6) statewide (2+5). Total 18 vs 6
Scraping past 78.6%: districts (6+6) statewide (2+5). Total 19 vs 5
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
Where ever you are trying to get people out to vote, you know what you have to achieve. If you manage to get more then at least that relieves the pressure in other harder states for your comrades.
For more detailed state by state look pop into http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/02/08/1481899/-All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
For other states in the target list, their primary/caucus are a bit further away. Most likely goal/target will change.