Hi guys! Welcome to my inaugural 2016 Congressional race ratings! All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them, with the exceptions of FL-2, FL-10, and VA-4 which were radically altered as a result of redistricting lawsuits and are considered safe for the opposite party. I’ve posted an analysis of all the races I didn’t rate safe for one party below the fold. Please feel free to comment / quibble with me in the comments.
House:
Likely D |
Leans D |
Tossup |
Leans R |
Likely R |
AZ-9
CA-3
CA-24
CA-26
CA-31
CA-36
FL-13
IL-11
IA-1
MN-7
MN-8
NH-2
NY-18
|
CA-52
CO-6
FL-26
NV-4
NY-24
|
AZ-1 (Tilt D)
CA-7 (Tilt D)
FL-18
IL-10 (Tilt D)
IA-3 (Tilt R)
ME-2
MN-2 (Tilt D)
NE-2
NV-3
NH-1 (Tilt D)
NY-1 (Tilt R)
NY-3
PA-8 (Tilt R)
TX-23
WI-8
|
AZ-2
CA-10
CA-25
CO-3
MI-1
MI-7
NJ-5
NY-19
NY-22
NY-23
UT-4
VA-10
|
AK-AL
CA-21
FL-27
IL-12
IL-13
MI-6
MI-8
MI-11
MN-3
MT-AL
NJ-3
NM-2
NC-13
PA-6
PA-7
WA-3
WA-8
WI-6
WI-7
|
Senate:
Likely D |
Leans D |
Tossup |
Leans R |
Likely R |
CO-SEN |
IL-SEN
WI-SEN
|
FL-SEN (Tilt D)
NV-SEN (Tilt D)
NH-SEN (Tilt D)
OH-SEN (Tilt R)
PA-SEN (Tilt D)
|
AZ-SEN
NC-SEN
|
IN-SEN
IA-SEN
MO-SEN
|
Alabama:
Safe R: AL-1, AL-2, AL-3, AL-4, AL-5, AL-6, AL-Sen
Safe D: AL-7
Nothing to see here, folks.
Alaska:
Safe Murkowski: AK-Sen
Likely R:
AK-AL: Don Young has managed to rub a lot of people the wrong way, but so far has done a pretty good job of hanging on. Still, he’s not invulnerable, and this race could get interesting, especially if the Presidential race even gets within single digits here.
Arizona:
Safe R: AZ-4, AZ-5, AZ-6, AZ-8
Safe D: AZ-3, AZ-7
Likely D:
AZ-9: Sinema will never be COMPLETELY safe in this district, but she held on by a pretty decent margin in 2014 and she doesn’t even have a declared opponent yet this cycle.
Tossup / Tilt D:
AZ-1: District leans R, but we have a solid candidate in Tom O’Holleran, and none of their candidates particularly scare me. It would be particularly hilarious if they somehow manage to nominate Paul Babeu.
Lean R:
AZ-Sen: McCain will be tough to beat, but he hasn’t had the greatest approval ratings at home recently, and Ann Kirkpatrick cut her teeth in tough races and is his most serious challenger in a while. So far she’s been doing everything right.
AZ-02: Unfortunately, McSally looks like a fairly formidable incumbent for this district, and both of our candidates, while at least credible, so far haven’t seemed super impressive. This district isn’t Republican enough for McSally to survive a wave, but she’s probably at least favored for now.
Arkansas:
Safe R: AR-1, AR-2, AR-3, AR-4, AR-Sen
California:
Safe R: CA-1, CA-4, CA-8, CA-22, CA-23, CA-39, CA-42, CA-45, CA-48, CA-49, CA-50
Safe D: CA-2, CA-5, CA-6, CA-9, CA-11, CA-12, CA-13, CA-14, CA-15, CA-16, CA-18, CA-19, CA-20, CA-27, CA-28, CA-29, CA-30, CA-32, CA-33, CA-34, CA-35, CA-37, CA-38, CA-40, CA-41, CA-43, CA-44, CA-46, CA-47, CA-51, CA-53
Safe D / Likely Harris:
CA-Sen: We’re probably going to see a Harris — Sanchez general election, and while there’s a chance Sanchez could cobble together a Republicans / SoCal coalition, I don’t think she has the discipline to pull it off in the end.
Safe D / Leans Khanna:
CA-17: Bleh.
Likely R:
CA-21: Super frustrating central valley seat, Valadao is a formidable incumbent, and neither of our candidates have really given a ton to be afraid of. Could eventually move to lean R or tossup if Emilio Huerta proves to actually have chops / in event of Trumpokalypse.
Leans R:
CA-10: Another often frustrating Central Valley seats, and I haven’t been terribly impressed with Micheal Eggman. Can we get Jose Hernandez back?
CA-25: We have a semi-credible candidate here in Bryan Caforio, and Steve knight hasn’t exactly posted great fundraising numbers, but this is still a tough district.
Tossup / Tilt D:
CA-7: Ami Bera looks to be in for a tough race against Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones in this even PVI district, but I think he probably ultimately prevails.
Leans D:
CA-52: Peters could be in for a real race if things get ugly, but none of his opponents are super impressive.
Likely D:
CA-3: Garamendi should be fine.
CA-24: Open D+4 seat, but I just have a lot of trouble seeing this one go red.
CA-26: Could potentially flip in a bad year, but I think Brownley will be fine.
CA-31: We picked this seat up in 2014. Chances are pretty slim we lose it.
CA-36: Props to Raul Ruiz for holding down this R+1 district!
Colorado:
Safe R: CO-4, CO-5
Safe D: CO-1, CO-2, CO-7
Likely D:
CO-Sen: An upset isn’t impossible here, but none of the Republicans here look that scary.
Leans D:
CO-6: ever since he got moved into this light blue district in redistricting in 2012, birther congressman Mike Coffman has stayed in the house through a string of good fortune. He beat a little known state rep who could barely fundraise in 2012 by a plurality, and then held on to the seat in 2014 thanks to the red wave. This year, he faces termed-out State Senate Minority leader Morgan Carroll, who should have the chops to finally send hip packing.
Leans R:
CO-3: Scott Tipton recently picked up a credible challenger in state Senator Gail Schwartz, but this will still be a tough district.
Connecticut:
Safe D: CT-1, CT-2, CT-3, CT-4, CT-5, CT-Sen
Delaware:
Safe D: DE-AL
Florida:
Safe R: FL-1, FL-2, FL-3, FL-4, FL-6, FL-7, FL-11, FL-12, FL-15, FL-16, FL-17, FL-19, FL-25
Safe D: FL-5, FL-9, FL-10, FL-14, FL-20, FL-21, FL-22, FL-23, FL-24
Likely R:
FL-27: Don't expect this seat to go anywhere with IRL holding it down, but in a Trumpokalypse who knows?
Tossup:
FL-18: Both sides have credible if not excessively impressive candidates here. Should go down to the wire.
Tossup / Tilt D:
FL-SEN: This rating is obviously contingent on us nominating Patrick Murphy, but I feel good about this race, especially if Trump and DeSantis are the nominees.
Leans D:
FL-26: I think this is likely D with Trump and Tossup / Tilt D with Cruz. I compromised and called it leans D. Hopefully in January we can say “Congresswoman Annette Taddeo.”
Likely D:
FL-13: It would take something really weird for Crist to lose this one.
Georgia:
Safe R: GA-1, GA-3, GA-6, GA-7, GA-8, GA-9, GA-10, GA-11, GA-12, GA-14, GA-Sen
Safe D: GA-2, GA-4, GA-5, GA-13
Hawai’i:
Safe D: HI-1, HI-2, HI-Sen
Idaho:
Safe R: ID-1, ID-2, ID-Sen
Illinois:
Safe R: IL-6, IL-14, IL-15, IL-16, IL-18
Safe D: IL-1, IL-2, IL-3, IL-4, IL-5, IL-7, IL-9, IL-17
Likely R:
IL-12: C-list Dem challenger and a lefty third party candidate in the general. We might get this in a wave, but otherwise unlikely.
IL-13: Similar to IL-12. Memo to Democratic map makers: If you can get rid of Bruce Rauner in 2018, draw the Dem parts of these two districts together.
Tossup / Tilt D:
IL-10: Unfortunately, Dold is great at appealing to suburban ticket splitters. Ultimately I think the PVI of this district will be too much for him to overcome this year, but it won’t be a gimme.
Leans D:
IL-Sen: Kirk has done an okay job positioning himself as a moderate, but it probably won’t be enough.
Likely D:
IL-11: If Bill Foster loses here, something’s seriously wrong.
Indiana:
Safe R: IN-3, IN-4, IN-5, IN-6, IN-8
Safe D: IN-1, IN-7
Likely R:
IN-2: Walorski wouldn’t be safe from a wave, but close to to it.
IN-9: The seat IS open, and Shelli Yoder ran a credible campaign in 2014
IN-Sen: We have a credible candidate in Barron Hill who could pull it off if our Presidential nominee keeps it close.
Iowa:
Safe R: IA-4
Safe D: IA-2
Likely R:
IA-Sen: At the beginning of the cycle, it looked like Chuck Grassley would coast to reelection, but between getting caught in the center of the mother of all SCOTUS fights and drawing a credible challenger in Patty Judge, he could have a real race on his hands.
Tossup / Tilt R:
IA-3 Our candidates here aren’t that impressive, but this district is fundamentally swingy, and we should be helped by presidential turnout.
Likely D:
IA-1: All indications are that accidental Congressman Rod Blum is on a two year rental. After barely winning this blue district in 2014, he’s basically continued to act like a typical far-right Republican. Monica Vernon will most likely be this district’s next Congresswoman come January.
Kansas:
Safe R: KS-1, KS-2, KS-3, KS-4, KS-Sen
Kentucky:
Safe R: KY-1, KY-2, KY-4, KY-5, KY-6, KY-Sen
Safe D: KY-3
Louisiana:
Safe R: LA-1. LA-3, LA-4, LA-5, LA-6, LA-Sen
Safe D: LA-2
Maine:
Safe D: ME-1
Tossup:
ME-2: Poliquin is the incumbent, but our presidential nominee will probably win here.
Maryland:
Safe R: MD-1
Safe D: MD-2, MD-3, MD-4, MD-5, MD-6, MD-7, MD-8
Massachusetts:
Safe D: MA-1, MA-2, MA-3, MA-4, MA-5, MA-6, MA-7, MA-8, MA-9
Michigan:
Safe R: MI-2, MI-3, MI-4
Safe D: MI-5, MI-9, MI-12, MI-13, MI-14
Likely R:
MI-6: Upton has a lot of local cred, but this race could get interesting if it looks like the Dem POTUS nominee is winning big.
MI-8: I haven’t been that impressed with Melissa Gilbert’s campaign so far, but at least she’s a credible candidate who could make this a race. I could easily see myself moving it to lean R at some point.
MI-11: David Trott has vulnerabilities in relation to his years running a foreclosure mill. Will Our nominee this time around be able to make more of an issue out of them than Bobby McKenzie was able to in 2014? We’ll see,
Lean R:
MI-1 Lon Johnson is a strong candidate for us in this Upper Peninsula seat, but the general trend in this area has not been good for us of late.
MI-7: Saline mayor Gretchen Driscoll appears to have been running a good campaign, but this seat is still Republican leaning.
Minnesota:
Safe R: MN-6
Safe D: MN-1, MN-4, MN-5
Likely R:
MN-3: Erik Paulsen is unfortunately very well entrenched in this light red district. We have a candidate that looks semi-credible, but it would take a real wave to uproot Paulsen.
Tossup / Tilt D:
MN-2: We have a solid candidate in this red-leaning open seat in Angie Craig, who has a good bio and has been raising real money. I think we ultimately win here, especially if the Republicans nominate hate radio loudmouth Jason Lewis, but it will be close down to the wire.
Likely D:
MN-7: Colin Peterson held on by a decent margin despite a credible opponent and a Republican wave in 2014, and has no Republican opponent yet, but I’m not in the habit of rating R+5 districts safe D.
MN-8: If Stewart Mills couldn’t knock off Rick Nolan in 2014 in the Iron Range district despite a Republican wave and a Green Party candidate getting 4.3% of the vote, I don’t really see how he hopes to do it this time around.
Mississippi:
Safe R: MS-1, MS-3, MS-4
Safe D: MS-2
Missouri:
Safe R: MO-2, MO-3, MO-4, MO-6, MO-7, MO-8
Safe D: MO-1, MO-5
Likely R:
MO-Sen: Secretary of State Jason Kander is a strong candidate who could make this a real race if our presidential nominee can keep it close, but he faces uphill odds against incumbent Roy Blunt.
Montana:
Likely R:
MT-AL: Superintendent of Public Instruction Denise Juneau is a strong candidate who has won statewide elections before, but ultimately Montana is still a tough state.
Nebraska:
Safe R: NE-1, NE-3
Tossup:
NE-2: Brad Ashford faces credible if not overly impressive Republican Challengers in this R+4 district.
Nevada:
Safe R: NV-2
Safe D: NV-1
Tossup:
NV-3: This race will depend a lot on the eventual Republican nominee, it’s probably tilt R with Roberson and leans D at worst with Fiore.
Tossup / Tilt D:
NV-Sen: Catherine Cortez-Masto probably ultimately wins this race, but Heck is a strong candidate who will probably give us heartburn down to the wire.
Leans D:
NV-04: Crescent Hardy can probably join the 2-year rental club.
New Hampshire:
Tossup / Tilts D:
NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter was never had the strongest reelections, and this is the more Republican of the New Hampshire districts, but between Frank Guinta’s ethical issues and the fact that the Democratic presidential Nominee will probably win the district, I think Shea-Porter should be favored.
NH-Sen: Kelly Ayotte will be tough to beat, but Maggie Hassan probably has the chops to do it.
Likely D:
NH-2: I honestly don’t see how Annie Kuster loses.
New Jersey:
Safe R: NJ-2, NJ-4, NJ-7, NJ-11
Safe D: NJ-1, NJ-6, NJ-8, NJ-9, NJ-10, NJ-12
Likely R:
NJ-3: This seat should be competitive, but both of our candidates here are pretty lackluster.
Leans R:
NJ-5: Unlike the other Jersey seats, we actually have a credible, if not overly impressive candidate here, and Garrett is a piece of work who is a bad fit for the district. Still, the district’s lean is hard to overcome. especially considering wealthy districts like this one often vote more Republican for Congress than they do for President.
New Mexico:
Safe D: NM-1, NM-3
Likely R: I think this race is probably Safe R with Cruz and Leans R with Trump, so I compromised and called it Likely R. Our one declared candidate, Merrie Soules, hasn’t been raising real money, but she apparently came close to winning an actual primary for an actual state office in 2014, so that’s something.
New York:
Safe R: NY-2, NY-27
Safe D: NY-4, NY-5, NY-6, NY-7, NY-8, NY-9, NY-10 NY-12, NY-13, NY-14, NY-15, NY-16, NY-17, NY-25, NY-26, NY-Sen
Likely R:
NY-21: Our candidate’s so-so and there’s a Green Party candidate who got over 10% in 2014.
Leans R:
NY-19: Considering it’s an Open D+1 seat, I wish I could rate it higher than this, but, how to say this… our probable nominee just moved to the district. From New York City.
NY-22: Open seat in a Republican-leaning district. Both sides have credible but not outstanding candidates.
NY-23: John Plumb has at least been running a semi-credible campaign and raising money, but the district leans R.
Tossup / Tilt R:
NY-1: We have two credible candidates in the race, my gut just doesn’t feel like we win this in the end. Interestingly, Long Island is one of the few places in the Country I’d feel better about with Cruz as the R nominee than Trump.
Tossup:
NY-3: It’s a shame Steve Israel decided to retire, he wasn’t that old and was doing a good job holding down the seat.
Lean D:
NY-24: John Katko had a surprisingly large win in 2014, but ultimately I think the district's D+5 PVI reasserts itself.
Likely D:
NY-18: Sean Patrick Maloney has done a good job entrenching himself in this district, turning back previous incumbent Nan Hayworth in 2014 and facing relatively weak foes this year. Still, it’s a R+2 district.
North Carolina:
Safe R: NC-2, NC-3, NC-5, NC-6, NC-7, NC-8, NC-9, NC-10, NC-11
Safe D: NC-1, NC-4, NC-12
Likely R:
NC-13: I put this here as a temporary rating because it’s slightly less Republican than the other seats and because of the weird open seat situation. It could easily move as things develop.
Leans R:
NC-Sen: Deborah Ross is a Credible if not top-tier challenger to Richard Burr, but ultimately the fundamentals of this race still favor the incumbent. It would definitely help if the Democratic Presidential nominee can win here, though.
North Dakota:
Safe R: ND-AL, ND-Sen
Ohio:
Safe R: OH-1, OH-2, OH-4, OH-5, OH-6, OH-7, OH-8, OH-10, OH-12, OH-15, OH-16
Safe D: OH-3, OH-9, OH-11, OH-13
Likely R:
OH-14: The good news is that David Joyce has an opponent who actually knows how to raise six digits worth of money, even if his fundraising hasn’t been particularly impressive. The bad news is that doesn’t seem to have hurt him in the past.
Tossup / Tilt R:
OH-Sen: Sigh. I don’t like putting this race here, but I ultimately think we come up short. Rob Portman has more money than god, and I think Republicans will be able to get some mileage out of indirectly blaming Strickland for the great recession by using out of context economic stats from his time as Governor.
Oklahoma:
Safe R: OK-1, OK-2, OK-3, OK-4, OK-5, OK-Sen
Oregon:
Safe R: OR-2
Safe D: OR-1, OR-3, OR-4, OR-5
Pennsylvania:
Safe R: PA-3, PA-4, PA-5, PA-9, PA-10, PA-11, PA-12, PA-15, PA-16, PA-18
Safe D: PA-1, PA-2, PA-13, PA-14, PA-17
Likely R:
PA-6: Freshman Ryan Costello should be vulnerable in this R+1 district but our candidate here is… less than promising.
PA-7: Pat Meehan will be a tough incumbent to beat, and neither of our candidates look terribly promising.
Tossup / Tilt R:
PA-8: We have two very solid candidates in this open Bucks County seat, and this is our best chance to take it in several cycles, but ultimately I think we probably come up a bit short. Also, I feel like I’m obligated to mention Patrick Murphy whenever I talk about this seat, so “Patrick Murphy!”
Tossup / Tilt D:
PA-Sen: I know there have been a lot of complaints about our candidate quality here, but honestly I think either Sestak or McGinty will pose a credible challenge here. Toomey will be tough to beat, and will probably bring up his failed background check bill a lot and ride that racist law and order / anti-BLM theme hard, but I think we win in the end.
Rhode Island:
Safe D: RI-1, RI-2
South Carolina:
Safe R: SC-1, SC-2, SC-3, SC-4, SC-5, SC-7, SC-Sen
Safe D: SC-6
South Dakota:
Safe R: SD-AL, SD-Sen
Tennessee:
Safe R: TN-1, TN-2, TN-3, TN-4, TN-6, TN-7, TN-8
Safe D: TN-5, TN-9
Texas:
Safe R: TX-1, TX-2, TX-3, TX-4, TX-5 TX-6, TX-7, TX-8, TX-10, TX-11, TX-12, TX-13, TX-14, TX-17, TX-19, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24, TX-25, TX-26, TX-27, TX-31, TX-32, TX-36
Safe D: TX-9, TX-15, TX-16, TX-18, TX-20, TX-28, TX-29, TX-30, TX-33, TX-34, TX-35
Tossup:
TX-23: Tilt R with Cruz, Lean D with Trump. Compromised on Tossup.
Utah:
Safe R: UT-1, UT-2, UT-3, UT-Sen
Leans R:
UT-4: Doug Owens is back and Mia love underperformed pretty epicly in 2014, but the seat IS R+14. Likely R with Cruz tossup with Trump.
Vermont:
Safe D: VT-AL, VT-SEN
Virginia:
Safe R: VA-1, VA-2, VA-5, VA-6, VA-7, VA-9
Safe D: VA-3, VA-4, VA-8, VA-11
Leans R:
VA-10: LuAnne Bennett seams like a decent candidate, but Barbara Comstock will be hard to beat.
Washington:
Safe R: WA-4,WA-5
Safe D: WA-1, WA-2, WA-6, WA-7, WA-9, WA-10, WA-Sen
Likely R:
WA-3: We have a semi-credible candidate here as wave insurance, but it would definitely take quite the wave to dislodge Jamie Herrera Beutler.
WA-8: Dave Reichert will be tough to dislodge, but the district’s only R+2.
West Virginia:
Safe R: WV-1, WV-3
Likely R:
WV-2: Alex Mooney is an atrocious fit for this district. It probably won’t matter.
Wisconsin:
Safe R: WI-1, WI-5
Safe D: WI-2, WI-3, WI-4
Likely R:
WI-6: Glenn Grothman is a horrible human being who could potentially lose his R+5 seat in a good Democratic year with a strong challenger. Too bad he doesn’t have one.
WI-7: Can we get a real candidate here, plz? Thnx, -BeloitDem
Tossup:
WI-8: Democrats got their best possible candidate in this R+2 Open seat with Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson, but he faces credible Republican opponents.
Leans Dem:
WI-Sen: All indications are that Russ Feingold is on track to win back this Senate seat.
Wyoming:
Safe R: WY-AL