Indiana specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on delegate allocation of its 83 Delegates. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories. Statewide Indiana Democratic Party is affiliated with and participates in Presidential Nomination with National Democratic Party umbrella.
Basic Data: Indiana has 83 delegates available. There are 9 Congressional Districts. So including state-wide allocations PLEO (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) and at-large delegates, there are 11 different delegate allocation units. Number of delegates available in each are as follows: 5 from CD3, CD4, CD6 and 6 from CD2 CD9 and 7 from CD5 and 8 from CD1 CD7. Additionally 9 PLEOs and 18 At-large delegates allocated from state-wide results. With 5 out of 11 allocation units having an odd number of delegates small opportunity for delegate advantages exist.
Primary Election Information: Primary ballot/vote is scheduled for 3rd May 2016. It is an open primary. Participation is open to everyone. Party affiliation records are set to the requested primary ballot.
Same day registration is not available. Voter registration deadline was 4th April for the primary. There is still time to register to vote in General Election.
Beautiful web portal at Indiana government website at http://www.state.in.us/sos/elections/index.htm is nicely laid out and easy to find information. My favourite bit is here Elections Statistics and Maps
The Indiana Democratic Party website is generic here at http://www.indems.org/. Do not be surprised if it annoys you that you cannot find election information easily. This is a state party website and has state party and state legislature, state government related news mostly.
State party does have one redeeming feature. Namely the “Emerging Leaders” programme. Read more here http://www.indems.org/get-involved/emerging-leaders/ where the aim to help emerging leaders (age group up to 40) to get together, learn stuff, meet people, and hopefully contest elections. This is an encouraging sign within the party.
Voter ID Laws: Indiana has very strict requirements regarding voter id. Valid Photo ID is required for all. More details here at http://www.state.in.us/sos/elections/2401.htm
Photo ID criteria (displays photo, displays name or an acceptable variation, issued by Indiana state government agency or federal government agency, displays ID expiry date. The expiry for military related ID is not required). Free ID Cards available from BMV.
Student IDs from public institutions (is state owned/controlled) are only accepted if they have all those things mentioned. ID from private institutions are not acceptable. Dedicated link for students http://www.state.in.us/sos/elections/2626.htm
Provisional ballots can still be cast. This gives a 10days grace to present an ID. There are some limited religious exemptions from Photo ID. Check SoS elections web site.
Early or Absentee Voting In Person: In person early voting is available from 28 days ahead (April 5th).
Absentee Voting by Mail: Absentee voting by mail is only available to qualifying voters with valid/acceptable reasons. qualifying conditions here at Secretary of State
Double Barrel Primary: Presidential Primary coincides with state/local primary elections. Local primaries include , State Senate seats, State House seats, US House seats, US Senate seat, State Governor. Also up are a lot of Judges in circuit and superior courts.
Not all state legislature seats have competitive primary. State governor also no primary. Some state legislature seats are not being contested by the Democrats.
Voter turnout is probably going to be a bit higher than normal due to the primaries.
Congressional District Based Delegate Allocation Triggers: (See table below). Due to proportional representation formula being used to allocate delegates from various districts, the number of delegates each candidate wins changes at certain specific percentage levels. Crossing/going past the vote percentages at those levels triggers a change (increase) in number of delegates awarded. The triggers for congressional districts based allocations are listed below. With two districts having odd number of delegates, there are good opportunities for advantages.
{For those interested the DNC formula for fair apportionment, rounded up d=DxM/T, where d= delegates earned, D=total number of Delegates available to be earned, M = Candidates votes, T = Total valid votes}
Delegates ACquired
Out of available
|
5 del
CD3 CD4 CD6
|
6 del
CD2 cd8 CD9
|
7 del
CD5
|
8 del
CD1 CD7
|
Delegate Allocation Triggers
1 del |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
2 del |
30 |
25 |
21.4 |
18.8 |
3 DEL |
50 |
41.7 |
35.7 |
31.3 |
4 del |
70 |
58.4 |
50 |
43.8 |
5 del |
85 |
75 |
64.3 |
56.3 |
6 del |
|
85 |
78.6 |
68.8 |
7 del |
|
|
85 |
81.3 |
8 del |
|
|
|
85 |
For 5 Delegates at CD3 CD4 CD6: First delegate acquired at 15%, second delegate at 30.%. Third delegate trigger is nicely balanced at 50%. Fourth delegate costs a whopping 70%. This 70% votes are needed to get a 4-1 split might be a bit too demanding. These four districts become very crucial as they break just with small % hovering at 50%, a whole delegate is available. Goal for any Campaign is to cross the 50% and obtain a 3-2 split in their favour. Successfully breaking these districts will give a delegate advantage straight away. These 5 delegate awarding districts will be contributing to delegate advantages. Campaign activity might be a bit more heavy here.
For 6 Delegates at CD2 CD8 CD9 : Within the whole range of 41.7 — 58.3 the delegate split will be straight 3-3. Interesting points are at 41.7%. and 58.3%, if candidates are hovering around either of these mark, then some extra effort would break the district 4-2 split. For an advantage a candidate has all the incentive to break it 4-2split. with 58.3% votes. Expecting some heavy campaign here for those lucrative advantage breaks. Otherwise we are looking at a straight 3-3 split.
For 7 Delegates at CD5 : First two delegates are cheap at 15% and 21.4%. Within the range of 35.7% — 50% the 3 delegates each will be allocated. The fight for the 7th delegate is again precariously balanced at 50% marker to make the overall break 4-3 split. To achieve a 5-2 split votes need to be at 64.3% or higher. To maintain competitiveness, each campaign should be aiming to maintain at least 35.7% vote share and retain a 3 delegates and then slug it out for final odd delegate for an advantage by crossing 50%. These 3 districts will provide an opportunity to gain delegate advantages.
For 8 Delegates at CD1 CD7: First two delegates are cheap at 15% and 18.8%. Any vote share between 43.8% and 56.3% will result in a 4-4 delegate split. Crossing a threshold trigger 56.3% results in two delegate advantage 5-3. The next trigger at 68.8% for 6-2 split. Unless there is some major event 68.8% is quite a huge barrier. 7-1 split is just extremely improbable it needs 81.3%. Aim here would be to attempt for 56.3% or better vote share and grab the 2 delegate advantage of 5-3 split.
Delegate Allocations Based On State-Wide Results: Statewide results work towards two different category of delegates; 18 At-Large delegates and 9 pledged PLEO delegates. Statewide winner will only get delegate advantage if the vote share exceeds the trigger for additional delegate. Due to large(ish?) number of delegates small changes are enough to trigger additional delegate allocations.
The four tables below show all triggers together with corresponding delegate numbers in each category. The triggers are all listed together with corresponding number of delegates in each category at that trigger point. {Counter-intuitive mathematics at play here. While 18 is exactly 2 times 9, the trigger points however do not line up neatly with each other.}
Vote Share% |
15 |
16.7 |
19.5 |
25 |
27.8 |
30.6 |
36.2 |
38.9 |
41.7 |
47.3 |
50 |
Triggers and State-wide Delegates for Vote% Share
PLEOs (9) |
1 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
At-Large Del(18)
|
3 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
Vote Share% |
52.8 |
58.4 |
61.2 |
63.9 |
69.5 |
72.3 |
75 |
80.6 |
83.4 |
85 |
|
Triggers and State-wide Delegates for Vote% Share
PLEOs (9) |
5 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
|
At-Large Del(18)
|
10 |
11 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
15 |
18 |
|
For 9 Pledged PLEOs: Roughly 11.1% votes translate to 1 delegate. At the viability 15% vote share only 1 Delegate is acquired. Second very cheap at 16.7%. Each subsequent delegate from then on at 11.1% increments. Crossing the 50% boundary gives delegate advantage with (5-4) split.
For 18 Delegates State-wide (at-large): (See tables above.) Because of a high number of available delegates, the incremental steps are fairly small. Results should reflect the similar percentages. The extra delegates achieving triggers are listed above. Roughly 5.6% votes translates to 1 delegate. Crossing 15% threshold gives a starting point of 3 delegates. fourth delegate is not so cheap at 19.5%. Subsequently every 5.6% gives an extra delegate. Between 47.3% and 52.8% delegates are split evenly (9-9). Crossing the 52.8% votes statewide awarding advantageous (10-8)split.
Taking all statewide the triggers combined, there are lots of percentage points which award extra delegates. The trigger points are spread out, there are not any clusters of close together triggers. Margin of statewide votes will have a very definitive and steady steps of delegate rewarding advantages. Just crossing 50% (resulting in equal 5+9 vs 4+9) compared with 5% extra votes at 55% (only crosses trigger 52.8%) awarding (5+10 vs 4+8) giving 3 more delegates to winner than the runner up.
Some Casual Scenarios: With so much interest in margins and delegate acquiring numbers, I thought I would add a few numbers and save interested people the hassle of having to do too much detailed mathematics on the fly.
All calculations in the next bit, based on uniform distribution of votes (ie. same proportion of votes in all districts). Vote share percentages based on relative vote share of two candidates. Implied assumptions, there are two qualifying candidates, all others receive less than qualifying (aka viability threshold) votes.
For anyone who wants to verify the numbers:
Step by step, for each state, for each allocation unit ( each district, PLEO, at-large),
delegates_acquired = rounded value of (total_delegates_available x (decimal_vote_share))
where, decimal_vote_share = votes_for_candidate/total_valid_votes
Viability_threshold = higher value of {100/(2 x total_delegates_available) or 15}
Where are the interesting numbers?: Trigger at 50% in 5, 7, 9 delegate awarding districts are basic stuff of whoever has more gets one extra. There are 5 of these (4 districts and one statewide results).
Taking into account the congressional districts based allocations as well as the statewide results, big impact and the most interesting triggers for congressional districts are 56.3% and 58.4%, 68.8% and 70% and 75%. These correspond with (8, 6, 8, 6, 5 delegate districts respectively)
At the same time 58.4% and 75% are also trigger for statewide results at-large categories. So these have an extra delegate impact..
There are few other minor trigger points of switching single delegates sporadically spread across the whole range.
Lets See Some Interesting Numbers:
Scraping past 50%: districts (9+9+4+8) statewide (5+9). Total 44 vs 39
Scraping past 56.3%: districts (9+9+4+10) statewide (5+10). Total 47 vs 36
Scraping past 58.4%: districts (9+12+4+10) statewide (5+11). Total 51 vs 32
Scraping past 64.3%: districts (9+12+5+10) statewide (6+12). Total 54 vs 29
Scraping past 68.8%: districts (9+12+5+12) statewide (6+12). Total 56 vs 27
Scraping past 70%: districts (12+12+5+12) statewide (6+13). Total 60 vs 23
Scraping past 75%: districts (12+15+5+12) statewide (7+14). Total 65 vs 18
{Uniform distribution is only useful for gauging the levels of supports needed and having something to get a feel about what results would look like. It is normal to see pockets of support or votes for a specific candidate in certain districts or areas. In these cases where a substantial chunk of support is in specific districts then there will be balanced by other districts where the triggers for extra delegates will not have been not crossed. Thus overall gain in delegates will be smaller than in uniform performance.}
Next (Rest of) bit is my personal opinion: {Warning: May Contain Nuts.}
Background: Republican dominated state with Republican control of State House, State Senate and State Governor. Although the voting patterns, voter registrations and other voting related numbers suggest that these should keep the statewide offices and state legislature as well as US House competitive between Republicans and Democrats this has not been the case. Mostly due to turn out/up issues. Now that the vote suppressing Photo ID laws are in effect, things will be much harder for Democrats unless there is a concerted big effort and statewide push for flipping state control of legislature and government. Indiana is one of the prime examples of why building up and supporting local party matters
Ongoing Regression and Oppression: Lately the news from Indiana has been about discrimination laws, “religious freedom” laws and victimizing abortions, suppression of pro-choice infrastructure. Here are a handful of samples just from DKos storytellers. {If the DK entries are stories, surely the people are storytellers}.
-RIP-Women-s-Rights-Religion-s-Savagery-Has-Struck-Again by thinkingblue
-After-IN-governor-signs-extreme-bill-aimed-at-punishing-women-he-gets-unexpected-monthly-updates by Jen Hayden
-Periods-for-Pence-campaign-trolls-Indiana-governor-over-vicious-anti-abortion-law by Laura Clawson
-Mike-Pence-can-t-say-if-people-should-be-fired-for-being-LGBT-but-he-hearts-religious-freedom by Kerry Eleveld
-How-the-LGBTQ-movement-went-from-winning-to-losing-in-nine-months also by Kerry Eleveld
and some trolling (or sending right message to whatever) Indiana Republicans by Clinton -Clinton-names-gay-rights-advocate-as-Indiana-campaign-director by dhonig
and the obligatory Republican governors refugee kicking -Indiana-s-Republican-governor-kicks-out-Syrian-refugees-reserves-place-for-himself-in-hell by Hunter
Factors in play: Some factors in play probably have higher impact. I have listed a few here. Please add your factors in comments.
Photo ID Laws: These laws in Indiana for the primary will be the voter photo ID impact. This should be a learning exercise for the Democratic electioneering engine in the state. Hopefully the party will learn which parts of its electorate is suffering and how so that the effects can be combatted and counter measures to ensure voting access as pursued. I do not mean legal, I mean operational, like who what where when what how why people missed on voting and what is needed to be in place so that they can vote in general. A concerted Get Your ID effort will be needed instead of relying on or hoping or praying that the laws will be struck down magically somehow. In terms of presidential primary, mandatory Photo ID laws will impact Clinton supporting electorate disproportionately. The independents and republicans attracted by Sanders will not face same difficulties. However students not so much. The rules seem less harsh in comparison to other Republican states when it comes to students. {Any students from Indiana please share your experiences}
Open Primary: The process is a completely open primary. Does not matter how the voters are registered and affiliated or not as the case might be. The affiliation is utterly meaningless here in terms of voting. Party affiliation is automatically changed at the time of voting to whichever party primary ballot is used. The impact of this will probably be for 2017 party internal elections and 2018 and 2020 for in determining fair representation percentages of delegates/elected offices/party offices in future conventions/elections of 2018 and 2020.
As far as 2016 primary election goes, Sanders will have an advantage. The advantage is that everyone will be able to vote, so any last few days pull from Republican and Unaffiliated / Independent pool will be able to cast their votes for Sanders without any hurdles. Clinton is unlikely to be attracting that many in the last few days. Most Clinton supporters will already have made up their mind well before the time and made whatever provisions to cast their ballots.
Early/Absentee Voting: Turnout will be higher as there are ample provisions and support for early/absentee voting in person. Mail voting a bit more difficult. Whoever can get their supporters into vote early will have an upper hand. This usually means Clinton advantages due to a long term and historical support, organizational advantages.
Demographics: The state is mostly sparsely populated. The state demographics data is deceptive. Roughly 81.5% White, 9% Black, 1.5% Asian coupled with Hispanic ethnicity at 6%. While this might look like a good match for Sanders (75%+ white good, from one of Subir’s own diaries), the Black population is mostly clustered around Gary in CD1 (Mini-Chicago Suburbia in Indiana) and heavily at Indianapolis in CD7. These will skew the results in those districts heavily for Clinton. This will also provide more delegates as both those districts are 8 delegate districts while rest have less. Consequently Sanders will have better mathematics and advantages in other districts. The advantage will depend on how near to delegate triggers the votes are.
Campaign Efforts/Organization: Informal Sanders campaign has been around from the beginning. While there is definitely wide ranging enthusiasm for Sanders, once again campaign has not been able to capitalize on this. Campaign presence has been vigorous in efforts to try and have a footprint in all counties. Sanders again had the formal presence here earlier than Clinton. Clinton campaign once more relying on existing networks from previous encounters and links and other national organizations that tend to have local presence. This sort of pre existing and bankable support meant that campaign has been able to maintain an upper hand in terms of GOTV and early voting and have campaign footprint in all counties.
Since the announcement of Sanders campaign to pursue super-delegates, the few super-delegates from Indiana (they do not have that many to start with) have been receiving attention locally from Sanders enthusiasts. Democrat Senator Joe Donnelly has been receiving (some good, many not so good) attempts at getting him to switch his endorsement from Clinton to Sanders. So have the other two Democratic US House Reps from Indiana.
State Local Primaries Effect: With the all in Primary taking place (US Senate, US House seats, State house seats, State Senate seats, US House seats, State Governor) the turnout should be slightly higher. Some very competitive Democratic Party primaries happening at all levels of government.
State Legislature Primaries: Only a few of state legislature seats are not being contested by Democrats. This is a big improvement. The attempt at contesting maximum seats is laudable. Vague events in most of the places. Unsurprisingly large Democrat population centres having a lot of interest. As usual funding has been a major problem for most of the candidates. A lot of the candidates could do with reading our Kossack Chris Reeves series at Nuts and Bolts/history about what and how to run for state legislature. State party however is showing promising future with useful http://www.indems.org/get-involved/emerging-leaders/ programme.
US House Primaries: On the plus side all US House seats are being contested. All but one of them have a primary. Some are fiercely competitive like in CD2 most are once again lacklustre due to that dreaded thing called funds. These again are driving the participation higher.
State Governor does not have a primary. The General Election will be a rematch of 2012 between John R Gregg (Democrat) vs Incumbent Mike Pence (Republican). US Senate: No primary either.
Economy, Job Losses To Mexico And Overseas, Employment: State affected by some of these as well as things happening in neighbouring states also affect the suburbia Indiana seem to have developed into. The economic messages and job losses should play very well for Sanders here. The trade deals association will hurt Clinton.
Social Impact State Laws/Policies : With the Republican government and legislature vying to make Indiana as oppressive and repulsive as possible, the state is becoming a nightmare. Anti-women, anti-LGBTQ laws enacted recently, are affecting enough people. State party is attempting to recover and fight back as much as possible. However the party infrastructure is not robust enough. GOTV apparatus is slowly being built up. I am expecting a higher proportion of the disaffected to flock to Clinton.
Now for district by district:
It is a relief to see a congressional districts map that does not try to eat your eyes inside out.
CD1 (8 Delegates): (Gary and mini Chicago suburbia) : Rough demographics: 70% white, 20% black, 1% Asian: (14%Hispanic). Democratic Party stronghold. For the US House seat, usually the same two people from same two parties contesting from when WJC was president. Looks like the usual Republican Mark Leyva is having a break this year. Turnout usually is always on higher end, as reflected in the Delegates from the district. Clinton should comfortably exceed 56.4% to split the district (5-3). Higher percentage of job losses to Mexico and overseas will mean Trump and Sanders should both be able to find sympathetic audience here. Party crossover appeals and new faces probably not enough to drag Clinton below the 56.4%.
CD2 ( 6 Delegates): : Rough demographics: 86% white, 7% black, 1% Asian: (8%Hispanic). While DK Elections have marked this as safe Republican district, the voting numbers and patterns suggest that this is a turnout issue more than anything else. It should be and has been previously competitive district. US House primary in full swing and gathering a lot of attention. Democrat Lynn Colemann doing fairly well so far. Once again trade deals, job losses playing very well to the crowds. Sanders campaign should find this a very promising district. Formal campaign offices have helped as well. Overall however expecting district to break (3-3) with Sanders pushing close towards 58.4% which would have given (4-2) advantageous split.
CD3 ( 5 Delegates): : Rough demographics: 88% white, 6% black, 1.5% Asian: (5.5%Hispanic). Safely Republican district. Fairly high unemployment, competitive primary for congress. District very suitable for plenty of crossover appeals, and economic message. Expecting district to comfortably break in favour of Sanders with (3-2) split.
CD4 ( 5 Delegates): : Rough demographics: 91% white, 3% black, 2.5% Asian: (5%Hispanic). Safely Republican district. Sacrificial competitive primary for congress. Meaning who gets to be the sacrifice candidate this year against Republicans and still keep people engaged enough. District very suitable for plenty of crossover appeals, and economic message. One of the few places in USA where there are more men than women. Expecting district to comfortably break in favour of Sanders with (3-2) split.
CD5 ( 7 Delegates): : Rough demographics: 85% white, 8% black, 2.5% Asian: (5%Hispanic). Safely Republican district. Electorate participation a bit higher than other places. However that applies across both parties. A bit higher volume of Democrats here as reflected by 7 delegates. People attempting a hopeful break or just laying out groundwork for future elections competing in a mild but energized primary. Unemployment is lower than in other areas of State. Expecting the district to be fought over between Clinton and Sanders for that seventh delegate. For now I am suspecting Clinton with barely managing just enough to get a (4-3).
CD6 ( 5 Delegates): Rough demographics: 94% white, 2% black, 1% Asian: (2%Hispanic). Safely Republican district. Up and coming prospective democrats trying their hand and electioneering in a competitive primary for congress. Current Republican governor Mike Pence has a substantial electioneering engine here from his US House days boosted to give him a leg up as Governor. So any old stick Republican has an upper hand. A much too easygoing Democratic primary mainly for trying to upset the situation and hopefully engage enough people to cause substantial political embarrassment to the Republicans. Expecting the district to break comfortably for Sanders with (3-2) split.
CD7 ( 8 Delegates): (Indianapolis and surrounds): Rough demographics: 62% white, 28% black, 2% Asian: (10%Hispanic). Second Democratic Party stronghold. District boasts a Muslim US House Rep in Andre Carson. Other one being Keith Ellison. Carson has been active and early supporter of Clinton. Unemployment is higher here than other areas, and Sanders is likely to have voluble supporters. I expect district to comfortably break in favour of Clinton (5-3) with just 56.4% needed.
CD8 ( 6 Delegates): : Rough demographics: 93% white, 4% black, 1% Asian: (2%Hispanic). Safely Republican district. Competitive primary for congress. District very suitable for plenty of crossover appeals. Expecting district to comfortably break in favour of Sanders with (4-2) split.
CD9 ( 6 Delegates): : Rough demographics: 92% white, 3% black, 2% Asian: (3%Hispanic). Safely Republican district. Competitive primary for congress. District very suitable for plenty of crossover appeals. Expecting district to comfortably break in favour of Sanders with (4-2) split.
Statewide: Overall statewide I expect Sanders at 52% Clinton at 48%. giving statewide delegates Sanders (5+9) vs Clinton (4+9).
All combined Sanders 43vsClinton40
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
Another fantastic and continuous effort from Kossack poopdogcomedy who tends to bring to light all those not presidential elections (like US House Representative elections, US Senate elections, state-wide office elections) that also matter a lot. Read them here http://www.dailykos.com/user/poopdogcomedy/history or better still follow so that you do not miss these gems.
For those you want an inkling about what to expect for those first footsteps into political ladder, here from Kossack Chris Reeves whole series at Nuts and Bolts/history about what and how to run for state legislature. Todays special however -Crowdsourcing-The-50-State-Strategy-Numbers-That-Should-Terrify-Democracy-Supporters
For the quartermasters of revolutions, this is the time to prepare for contesting 2017/2018 state and federal elections I recommend following both of them.