First of all, I need to get this done with: In the last part I forgot a district. That district would be Michigan 1, an open seat vacated by Dan Benishek. The Republicans are former State Senators Jason Allen and Tom Casperson. Our candidates are former Michigan State Party Chairman Lon Johnson and 2014 nominee Jerry Cannon. Both of the GOP are crazies, Casperson is a faux moderate. Lon is our frontrunner. Lon versus Casperson is the likeliest scenario. Okay, now that that’s dealt with...We can begin. Part 3 will not be the final part, part 4 will be. I’ll basically cram a bunch of stuff into part 4: Reach seats, our seats, Republican candidates, endorsements, who the better candidates are in my opinion, ratings, basically everything. So…Yeah. Let’s now not further delay and get started.
The last Tossup is California 21 (David Valladao’s district). Valladao is a strong incumbent, but he’s in both a district that went 55% for Obama in 2012 and has a heavy Hispanic presence with Donald Trump likely on top of the ballot, Valladao will probably have to get like more than 10% in crossover vote. It’s rated Likely Republican by everyone else, but it is not Likely Republican. The Top 2 primary complicates things, but Valladao is the only notable Republican on the ballot. In Virginia 10, Barbara Comstock faces a strong opponent in businesswoman and Jim Moran’s ex-wife LuAnn Bennet. In California 10, this could be better. Three-termer Jeff Denham is running for reelection with a weak Dem opponent. But this is in the same boat as CA-21, just Denham is more entrenched, has actually faced tough opponents before and won (Valladao’s 2012 and 2014 opponents were weak, while Denham had a very strong 2012 opponent), and has a district which is more Republican. In New Jersey 5, this is different. Strong social conservative Scott Garrett has angered Wall Street, so they’re backing his Democratic opponent Josh Gottheimer. How does a Republican incumbent anger Wall Street this much, you ask? By saying the NRCC shouldn’t support gay candidates. Ever since he said that, Garrett’s fundraising has been poor and Gottheimer’s has been great. This district could end up being a one term rental for Dems, but that’s better than nothing. In Michigan 7, Tim Walberg is sort of an anomaly. A hyper-conservative in a swingy district, Walberg has a strangish history. In 2004, he lost the open seat primary to State Senator Joe Schwartz, but in 2006 Walberg primaried Schwartz and won both the primary and general against Sharon Renier. In 2008, Walberg lost to State Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer, also the 2014 gubernatorial nominee. Walberg regained his seat in a rematch in 2010. In 2012, Walberg won reelection in a competitive race against Kurt Haskell. In 2007, there was a recall effort launched against Walberg. So, yeah. He has an opponent in State Senator Gretchen Driskell. This could end up being an election day win for us, as with Walberg, anything can happen. In Utah 4, Mia Love is also an anomaly, just with a shorter history than Walberg. She was supposed to be a GOP rising star, and in 2012, Jim Matheson was all but finished, with Mitt Romney on top of the ballot and Matheson needing to overperform Obama by a lot and him facing the newest rising star and such. Matheson won. In 2014, when Matheson retired, it was supposed to be a safe seat for Love to win, as Doug Owens surely couldn’t have put up a threat. Love won, but only by a few thousand votes against Owens. Now Owens is seeking a rematch, and with the toxic Trump likely atop the ballot, anything can happen. Love is likely going to underperform the GOP nominee by a good deal, and Trump is especially hated in Utah. If Cruz gets the nomination though, or the GOP at the convention nominate Romney, Ryan, or Kasich, Love is saved. This is going to be a close one, I have a feeling.
Let’s check our candidates. In California 21, we have Fowler Mayor Daniel Parra and Attorney Emilio Huerta. Huerta is favored by national Dems, and Parra has horrible fundraising. In California 10, we have a candidate. He may not be great, but he’ll have to do. The candidate by the way is former Assemblyman and 2014 nominee Michael Eggman. Eggman will probably need DCCC help if he is to win though. In Virginia 10, Bennett is the only candidate who filed. Bennett basically fits everything a Democrat should have. She also can do a significant amount of self-funding, and has name rec due to being former Congressman Jim Moran’s ex-wife. Moran will also help her, said an article from months ago I think. In New Jersey 5, Garrett has really screwed up. Former Clinton Aide Josh Gottheimer is raising more than him, he has support from Democrats, the DCCC, and Wall Street. There...Um...I’m not sure who is supporting Garrett, so this will only go to Garrett by Republicans voting for him. In Michigan 7, our candidate is State Senator Gretchen Driskell. Driskell massively outraised Walberg in the 4th quarter, and reports raising a lot in the 1st quarter, so, that’s taken care of. In Utah 4, Attorney and 2014 candidate Doug Owens is doing well here. Gygaxian reports that this is a good chance for Democrats to win, as even though it is very Republican, with Trump on top of the ballot and Love’s serial underperforming, she may underperform too much. Owens is also a good fit for the state, as he is a more liberal version of Matheson, but is still conservative enough that he can win.
Now, you may have noticed (You probably did actually) That I only covered six districts. That is because after these seats, it gets harder. The next seats are seats that Democrats, even under a Trumpocalypse, will have to work for. In Michigan 8, we have a candidate to unseat Mike Bishop here: Actress Melissa Gilbert. Her connections should help her, but whether it can help her enough to unseat Bishop in this light red seat is questionable. In California 25, Steve Knight is a weakish incumbent who said offensive things early last year (I forget what exactly) and only raised 30,000 in the first quarter. He became stronger in Quarter 2, but became weak again in Quarters 3 and 4. But we have our own divisive primary here between Attorney Bryan Caforio and Agua Dulce Councilman Lou Vince. Vince has the support of the state party, while the DCCC is backing Caforio. Vince has had bad fundraising, while Caforio’s has been much better. In Illinois 12, we messed up here big time, but it may not matter. This seat voted for Obama, but incumbent Mike Bost is strong. We have Attorney C.J. Barecivic here, but beating Bost will be no easy task. In New York 23, the incumbent, Tom Reed, has endorsed Trump. That makes Reed potentially vulnerable, and Democrats have a candidate who has good local Democratic support and is on the DCCC emerging races list. Our candidate is former White House Military Aide John Plumb. That gets us to +30 seats, the number we need to take back the House.