Donald Trump bet his entire candidacy last week on fear, declaring himself the "law and order" candidate in what's been almost universally described as a macabre, apocalyptic nomination speech. In the wake of violence in Dallas, Turkey, and France, it was a political moment he sought to exploit and we’re now getting signals, based on reactions of independent voters, that it produced an opening for Democrats. From the NBC/SurveyMonkey weekly tracking poll:
Trump's convention speech, which was received well by Republicans watching the event, did not sit as well with Independents. Just 30 percent of Independents who watched the speech said it was excellent or good, 29 percent said it was "just okay" and a 40 percent plurality said it was poor or terrible.
Though post-RNC polling has been all over the map (with most polls finding at least some bump for Trump), the NBC survey specifically sought out reactions to Trump's convention speech.
So far, the Democratic convention is perfectly positioned to make a strong push at those disaffected independents. The historic nature of Clinton's nomination sort of snuck up on us even though it had been hiding in plain sight. The Bernie convention drama had in some ways obscured what an amazing moment Hillary's elevation would be for women across the country. But Tuesday’s slow build from the moment Bernie graciously nominated Clinton, to her Jumbotron appearance telling little girls across America "one of you is next,” likely managed to reengage swaths of voters nationwide. In fact, second night viewership of the DNC outpaced that of the RNC by about 25 percent.
Last night, Bill Clinton used that engagement to reintroduce Hillary as a wife, mother, and gritty change-maker. Tonight, President Barack Obama—still at 50 percent approval in Gallup's daily tracking poll—will have an opportunity to sell the nation on his administration's accomplishments, and on Hillary as the trusted defender of that forward progress.
And while Trump provided another mind-boggling reminder Wednesday of what a complete menace he would be to our national security by begging Russia to hack Clinton's emails, Obama's likely to do more than focus on national security. After all, some people are still worried about putting food on the table, paying for college, and accessing health care.