The New York State primaries were held a few weeks ago on September 13. NY holds its state primaries separately from its federal primaries for reasons that differ depending on who you ask. This diary will focus on changes and/or news since my last diary, which can be found here. All the matchups and my rankings of these races can be found here. I’ve chosen to not write about any elections that are either uncontested, have minor challengers to an incumbent, or have had virtually no news to speak of. A note about rankings: since there’s not a ton of polling, I have to make these judgements based on available information, and my own perception. Feel free to disagree with my rankings.
Current Senate Makeup
Democrat |
26
|
Republican |
31 |
IDC |
5 |
Simcha Felder |
1 |
Total |
63 |
Contested Primary Winners:
- SD 16: Toby Stavisky (Incumbent) (D-Queens)
- SD-31: Marisol Alcantara (Open Seat) (IDC-Inwood) - more on this below
- SD-36: Jamaal Bailey (Open Seat) (D-Bronx)
- SD-40: Alison Boak (D-Putnam)
- SD-54: Pamela Helming (Open Seat) (R)
- SD-60: Amber Small (D-Erie) SD-60: Chris Jacobs (R-Erie)
SD 6: CSEA has come out in support of Kemp Hannon. Unions in NY have traditionally backed republicans, who long held the senate majority. This race has the potential to be close, so it's unfortunate that CSEA isn't going for Ryan Cronin; however, I'm not certain that this district has a particularly large number of CSEA members so their support may not sway much.
SD 31: Only in NY could a democrat winning a primary, in a race where Barack Obama got 90% of the vote in 2012, potentially tip the senate back to republicans next year. Democrat Marisol Alcantara won against 3 other democrats in the primary, which is tantamount to the general election in this district. Alcantara has vowed to join the Independent Democratic Conference (IDC). The IDC's leader, Sen. Jeff Klein (D-Bronx/Westchester) hasn't stated whether or not they'll maintain their alliance with senate republicans, but it seems likely that Klein will ally the conference with whoever gives him the best deal--he was previously Senate Co-President with former Majority Leader Dean Skelos. This is an unfortunate setback. NY politics is weird, man.
SD 46: As Taget astutely pointed out in the live digest, George Amedore is refusing to give back campaign contributions tied to a developer who just got indicted as part of the ongoing Buffalo Billion scandal. In his explanation, he tried to tie his opponent, Sara Niccoli to NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio. That's pretty weak tea, and this is not a district where Amedore can afford to make mistakes. Amedore lost this district in 2012 even though it was drawn for him. Unfortunately, Amedore is independently wealthy, and advertisements for his development company are all over the region. Niccoli's best bet is to highlight this in the portion of the district where Zephyr Teachout is doing well, and try to ride any coattails of the Trumpocolypse. This is a race to watch, and if Teachout runs up large margins in Ulster and Dutchess, she could narrowly win this. It’s worth noting that Amedore was endorsed by the PBA, which isn’t surprising, but he also received the endorsement of PEF, which makes a difference in this district that is comprised of many of Albany’s suburbs.
SD 55: In an unfortunate turn of events, democrat Steven Glickman has been removed from the ballot in SD-55 for residency issues. His opponent, Senator Richard Funke (R-Rochester) is now running unopposed in a district that President Obama carried with 56% of the vote. This district wasn't being watched as closely as it was in 2012 and 2014, but the failure to gain a top-tier candidate was one reason for that. This district helped get us to the majority last time, so it's a shame recruitment here didn't pan out.
SD 58: Senator Tom O'Mara could be the sleeper race to watch this year. His democratic opponent Leslie Danks Burke has raised a significant sum of money ($385k to date). This is a largely rural district outside of the very expensive NYC media market. Danks Burke was endorsed by New York State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli, who received the most votes of any candidate in the 2014 statewide elections. Danks Burke is certainly the underdog out here, but this race is worth keeping an eye on. Danks Burke was also endorsed by SEIU local 200United, and 32BJ.
SD 60: Amber Small (D) and Chris Jacobs (R) won their respective primaries for, what will likely be, the most expensive senate race in NY this year. Small is hitting Jacobs for taking donations from Louis Ciminelli, who was recently indicted as part of the Buffalo Billion scandal (see above in SD 46). Jacobs has a ton of money (about $326,000 whereas Small has about $17,000). However, last time around, the teacher's union spent a huge sum of money here, which brought Mike Panepinto over the finish line in a four-way race. It's unclear if the union will spend here again. This district is must win if democrats want to take back the senate.
Current Race Ranking
Safe D |
22
|
Likely D |
1 |
Lean D |
1 |
Tossup |
4 |
Safe R |
21 |
Likely R |
3 |
Lean R |
4 |
Safe IDC |
6 |
Simcha Felder |
1 |