In order to win back the House of Representatives, we need to gain a net of 5 seats from the Republican Party. I’ve already posted an overview of the entire House landscape for the 2024 election. It was very ambitious to write about so many different races at once! It was likely too full of information and difficult to read because of that. So, I’ve decided to break down the races into 4 categories.
- The #Beatable18 — the races we need to win to retake the House
- #SaveTheMajority — the races we need to defend to retake the House
- The #MAGADozen — the races we need to win to have a strong majority in the House
- TBD by the Courts — states and districts that have been or could be changed by the courts
Today, I am writing about the #Beatable18. The #Beatable18 are the GOP incumbents that serve in districts President Biden carried in 2020. As you will read, some of them should be fairly easy to defeat, while others are entrenched and will be quite difficult to dislodge. Many play the “moderate” card effectively in spite of falling in line with the MAGA antics most of the time. The below graphic includes all of the incumbents in the #Beatable18.
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Without further ado, let’s learn about the #Beatable18 and their challengers!
Arizona-1: Rep. David Schweikert
Ethics challenged Rep. David Schweikert has been in Congress since the 2010 red wave election. He is a tea party and MAGA true believer, for instance he is an election denier. He has watched his Phoenix suburban seat trend sharply to the left over the past few elections. He now sits in a seat Biden won 50.1% to 48.6%, He only won 50.4% to 49.6% in 2022, or about 3000 votes.
Many different challengers have joined the race, with varying backgrounds and chances of winning the primary election. I cannot describe each challenger in detail without making this diary exceptionally long, so I will link to their campaign websites so you can learn about them!
Arizona-6: Rep. Juan Ciscomani
This district is found in the Tucson metro area in Arizona. Rep. Juan Ciscomani claims to be a “moderate”, but his votes are nothing of the sort. The independent redistricting commission gave him the seat that was closest by 2020 election results. Joe Biden won this district 49.3% to 49.2%. Ciscomani himself only won by a total of 5000 votes, or 50.7% to 49.3%.
Our challenger is Kirsten Engel, who is a former state senator and a law professor. She was also the candidate for this seat in 2022, so she has experience in running for Congress on her side. This race could very well be the one to decide the House, as it is a true coin flip district.
California-13: Rep. John Duarte
This district is found in the Central Valley of California. Rep. John Duarte also pretends to be a “moderate”, sometimes rejecting the MAGA crazy but often falling in line with it. Joe Biden won this district 54.3% to 43.4%, which means he is very vulnerable. He only barely won this seat due to anemic turnout in 2022, with a 500 vote win, or 50.2% to 49.8%.
There are two serious candidates for this seat. The first is financial advisor Phil Arballo, and the second is former state representative Adam Gray. Gray was the nominee in 2022, and Arballo also ran for this seat that year. Who gets to face Duarte will be decided on March 5, 2024.
California-22: Rep. David Valadao
This district is also found in the Central Valley of California. Rep. David Valadao is as close to Teflon politically as you can get — only losing in the 2018 blue wave election. He sits in a district Biden won 55.3% to 42.3%. Valadao won in 2022 by a 51.5% to 48.5% margin, or about 3100 votes. Valadao is one of two Republicans to vote to impeach Trump left in Congress, so he can be a “moderate”.
Valadao has a noteworthy primary challenger in former Fresno City council member Chris Mathys. For the Democrats, there are two challengers in former State Rep. Rudy Salas (our 2022 nominee) and State Sen. Melissa Hurtado. The Top 2 finishers in the March 5, 2024 election will advance.
California-27: Rep. Mike Garcia
This district is found north of Los Angeles in Santa Clarita and the Antelope Valley. Rep. Mike Garcia is a MAGA true believer, such as being an election denier. He’s won three races in a seat that Biden carried 55.1% to 42.7% in 2020. Garcia easily crushed the opposition in 2022, winning 53.2% to 46.8%. This turned out to be about a 13000 vote difference in a district with anemic turnout.
He have a first time candidate in former Virgin Galactic CEO George Whitesides running in 2024. He has been a strong fundraiser for this district, which is the first hurdle a new candidate has to clear to be viable. It remains to be seen how he will perform on the campaign trail and in debates. This district is likely one that will decide who controls the House of Representatives come 2025.
California-40: Rep. Young Kim
This district contains mostly Orange County communities in southern California. Rep. Young Kim won back this district in 2020 and has compiled a MAGA voting record in the process. Joe Biden won this district 49.9% to 48.0%, but Democrats were unable to capitalize on that fact in 2022. Kim blew out the competition in the midterms, winning 56.8% to 43.2% over decent opposition.
We have two challengers trying to unseat Kim, but both have quite a bit to prove before I would consider them viable. First up is Allyson Muñiz Damikolas, a school board member. Also in the running is firefighter Joe Kerr. Both have struggled to raise campaign funds, so they need help.
California-45: Rep. Michelle Steel
This district also contains mostly Orange County communities in southern California. Rep. Michelle Steel won back this district in 2020 and has mostly voted with MAGA Republicans since then. Joe Biden won her district 52.1% to 46.0% in 2020, so that alone makes her vulnerable. She skillfully exploited ethnic tensions in 2022 to win 52.4% to 47.6%, or about 10500 votes.
We have many candidates contesting this district, so instead of describing each challenger in detail I will link to their campaign websites so that you can learn more about them!
Nebraska-2: Rep. Don Bacon
This district consists of the Omaha metro area and some rural counties in Nebraska. Rep. Don Bacon is another “moderate” who has bucked his party at times but mostly votes with them. Joe Biden won this district and an electoral vote 52.2% to 45.8% in 2020. Rep. Don Bacon took advantage of anemic midterm turnout to win 51.3% to 48.7% over touted opposition in 2022.
That opposition, former State Sen. Tony Vargas, is back in 2024 to finish what he started. So long as Biden contests the electoral vote for this district, Vargas has a decent shot of winning. If Trump is the winner of this electoral vote, it is likely Bacon will win again. This race may determine the House.
New Jersey-7: Rep. Thomas Kean, Jr.
The location of this district is hard to describe, other than it is in northern New Jersey. Rep. Thomas Kean, Jr. is another pretend “moderate”, usually falling in line with whatever MAGA wants. Joe Biden carried this district 51.1% to 47.3% in 2020. Kean knocked off an incumbent in 2022, flipping the district by a 51.4% to 48.6% result. He may run statewide some day, so defeating him is key.
We have three candidates for this district, though none of them seem spectacular so far. First up is Sue Altman, who was director of the NJ Working Families Party. Then, we have Jason Blazakis, who worked in the State Department for Biden. A new entry into the race is Greg Vartan, a Summit city council member.
New York-1: Rep. Nick LaLota
This district covers the easternmost portions of Long Island in the state of New York. Rep. Nick LaLota is another “moderate” that has a voting record that is MAGA Republican. Long Island was a terrible place for us election wise in 2022-23. Even though Biden won this district 49.5% to 49.3%, I am not optimistic. LaLota easily crushed the opposition in 2022, winning 55.5% to 44.5%.
We have two candidates for this seat. Perhaps they are hoping the seat will be redrawn more favorably if New York has to re-redistrict. Former state senator Jim Gaughran and 2020 nominee Nancy Goroff will face off for the right to challenge LaLota in November.
New York-3: OPEN SEAT
This is the seat of the now infamous Rep. “George Santos”. It is also located on Long Island, which means it is in a disaster zone for our party based on 2022-23 results. “Santos” has retired, but he may be expelled or forced to resign long before November 2024. Biden won this district 53.6% to 45.4% in 2020, but “Santos” flipped this seat 53.7% to 46.2% in the 2022 midterm elections.
This race is fluid on the GOP side right now, with the news of “Santos” retiring being recent. The Democratic side has two serious challengers. One is former state senator Anna Kaplan, and the other is the former Rep. Tom Suozzi, who abandoned this seat to run for governor in 2022.
New York-4: Rep. Anthony D’Esposito
This district is also located on Long Island, which was an absolute catastrophe for the Democratic Party in 2022-23. Rep. Anthony D’Esposito has made a couple of “moderate” moves, but he is more likely to vote MAGA Republican on issues. Biden won this district 56.8% to 42.2%, which is the largest gap for a GOP incumbent sitting in a #Beatable18 district. D’Esposito won by 10000 votes, or 51.8% to 48.2%
We have two notable candidates running for this seat in 2024. First, we have 2022 nominee Laura Gillen, who is back to reclaim this district from the GOP. We also have state senator Kevin Thomas running. The June 25th primary will decide who gets the privilege of being the nominee.
New York-17: Rep. Mike Lawler
This district is located in Upstate New York, right on the fringes of the New York City metro area. Rep. Mike Lawler has made some “moderate” overtones in the media, but his votes don’t align with that. Even with a conservative record, there are rumblings of a primary challenge to him. Biden won this district 54.5% to 44.4% in 2020, but Lawler won it in 2022, but only by 1800 votes, or 50.3% to 49.7%.
We have two major nominees in this district for the 2024 race. One is former Rep. Mondaire Jones, who ran for a different district in 2022 and lost the primary. The other is Liz Whitmer Gereghty, the sister of popular Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Both have a good chance of unseating Lawler.
New York-19: Rep. Marc Molinaro
This district stretches across Upstate New York from the Catskill Mountains to the Ithaca area. Rep. Marc Molinaro is another “moderate”, compiling a MAGA voting record in spite of his rhetoric. Joe Biden won this district 51.3% to 46.7%, which is a little narrower than most he won in New York. Molinaro himself only won 50.8% to 49.2% in 2022, or about 4500 votes.
We have only one candidate for this district so far in 2024, though more have time to get into the race. 2022 nominee Josh Riley is back to try and oust the freshman incumbent after a decent performance in a bad year for New York Democrats.
New York-22: Rep. Brandon Williams
This district is found in Update New York, primarily in the Syracuse area. The district loves electing “moderate” Republicans, but Rep. Brandon Williams is anything but a “moderate”. He has been a MAGA Republican in a district Joe Biden won 52.6% to 45.2% during the 2020 election. Williams held this district for the GOP by a 50.5% to 49.5% margin in spite of a retirement by an actual moderate.
We have two quality candidates running for this district. First up is Sarah Klee Hood, who ran for this seat in 2022 but lost in the primary. We also have a state senator who is used to winning close contests in John Mannion. Both could be the opponent that knocks off Williams from Congress!
Oregon-5: Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer
This district stretches from the Portland suburbs to the growing Bend area in Oregon. Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer has been one of the more “moderate” members of the GOP, but her record still lines up with MAGA Republicans most of the time. Biden won her district 53.2% to 44.4% in 2020, but Chavez-DeRemer took advantage of a split in Democrats to win 51.1% to 48.9% in 2022.
We have three major candidates running for this seat in 2024. First is State Rep. Janelle Bynum, who represents the 39th district. Next is 2022 nominee Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who is almost a perennial candidate now. Finally, we have the president of METRO Lynn Peterson.
Pennsylvania-1: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick
This district primarily contains Bucks County, Pennsylvania, which is near Philadelphia. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is actually a moderate Republican, but he still has plenty of problematic issue positions. He is also entrenched in his seat, and will be difficult to defeat — even in a district Biden won 51.8% to 47.2%. In 2022, Fitzpatrick smoked the opposition by a 54.9% to 45.1% margin.
Our 2022 nominee, US Army pilot Ashley Ehasz, is back for another match against the incumbent. However, a more serious threat may come from a primary election against Fitzpatrick. Minister Mark Houck has raised little money so far, but he is a MAGA Republican that could win this race.
Virginia-2: Rep. Jen Kiggans
This district is found in the Hampton Roads metro area of Virginia, specifically Virginia Beach. Rep. Jen Kiggans looks after this military heavy district fairly well, even though she is yet another MAGA Republican. Biden won this district 50.1% to 48.2%, which is closer than a lot of the others on here. Kiggans herself won this district 51.6% to 48.2% during the 2022 midterm elections.
We currently have one nominee for this district, although there is time for more contenders to throw their hats into the ring. US Navy veteran Missy Cotter Smasal has run for office before, but never on the Congressional level. She has a similar profile to our last incumbent here, Rep. Elaine Luria.
CONCLUSION
Now, we aren’t going to win all of these districts. Some of these incumbents have staying power and are well entrenched in their seats. Others know how to play the “moderate” card very effectively in spite of falling in line with the MAGA crazy most of the time. However, there are enough freshmen in the above group that can be beaten more easily. It takes time to get entrenched in a district through bringing home the bacon and through constituent services.
Now, the political environment, yet to be determined in 2024, will have a LOT to do with how many of these incumbents win re-election. It is highly doubtful that seats that Biden won by 5% or more will suddenly flip to supporting Donald Trump. It is those seats Biden won by a narrow amount that we need to pay attention to, the ones that could either make or break our potential majority. Hopefully, we knock off most of the names mentioned here for a robust majority.
Let's take back the House by targeting the 6 most vulnerable CURRENT Democrats and the 18 districts that Biden won in 2020 that have R reps! That brings us to the 24 in 24 Fund! Please donate and then share a link to this site on your social media! #Beatable18