In order to win back the House of Representatives, we need to gain a net of 5 seats from the Republican Party. I’ve already posted an overview of the entire House landscape for the 2024 election. It was very ambitious to write about so many different races at once! It was likely too full of information and difficult to read because of that. So, I’ve decided to break down the races into 4 categories.
- The #Beatable18 — the races we need to win to retake the House
- #SaveTheMajority — the races we need to defend to retake the House
- The #MAGADozen — the races we need to win to have a strong majority in the House
- TBD by the Courts — states and districts that have been or could be changed by the courts
Today, I am writing about the 23 incumbents and open seats that we need to successfully defend in order to #SaveTheMajority. These incumbents had close races in 2022, or are found in districts that voted for Donald Trump in 2020. Many of these incumbents are experienced campaigners, but a few are also new, and the new ones are more vulnerable to being defeated. This list may expand or contract as time goes by due to retirements or the quality of the GOP challengers.
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Without further ado, let’s learn about the open seats and incumbents in #SaveTheMajority and their challengers!
Alaska At-Large: Rep. Mary Peltola
Rep. Mary Peltola of course won that famous special election back in 2022, as well as the general election that year. She fits the state of Alaska well, and seems to be well liked. She is one of the most moderate members of our caucus, which makes sense coming from a district Trump won 53.1% to 43.0%. Alaska seems to be very slowly trending our way, but Peltola will be vulnerable no matter what the political environment is like.
Alaska uses a Top 4 primary system. All of the candidates run in one primary election, and the Top 4 advance to the general election. Then, ranked choice voting is used until two candidates are left, and a winner is picked from there. Peltola has two challengers so far — Republicans Nick Begich III and and Lt. Governor Nancy Dahlstrom. It is thought that the latter is a serious threat to Peltola.
California-47: Open Seat
This district is found in Orange County in southern California. Rep. Katie Porter is the incumbent, but she is running for the open Senate seat in 2024. She is leaving behind a seat Biden won 54.5% to 43.4%, but Porter only won 51.7% to 48.3% in 2022. We have three candidates trying to defend this seat — state senator David Min, activist Joanna Weiss, and BoE member Mike Schaefer.
California uses a Top 2 primary system. Everyone runs in the same primary regardless of political party, and the top 2 finishers (even if they are of the same party) compete against each other in the general election. The GOP has three candidates, with the most serious one being 2022 nominee Scott Baugh.
Colorado-8: Rep. Yadira Caraveo
Rep. Yadira Caraveo is a freshman incumbent, having won a brand new seat in 2022 by a very small margin. Biden only won this district 50.8% to 46.3% in 2020. Caraveo was involved in one of the closest races in 2022, only winning by 1600 votes, or a 48.4% to 47.7% margin. The fact that she won is reassuring, but the fact that she was held under 50% of the vote is mildly concerning.
Caraveo has three challengers so far, with two of them being serious. State Rep. Gabe Evans and Weld County Commissioner Scott James are the two candidates to watch. We will not know who gets to face Caraveo until June 25th, when the GOP primary gets settled.
Connecticut-5: Rep. Jahana Hayes
This district is found in northwestern Connecticut, and is the swingiest district in the state. Rep. Jahana Hayes has been in Congress since the 2018 blue wave election. She wasn’t seriously challenged until the 2022 midterm election. Even though Joe Biden won this district 54.6% to 43.9%, Hayes only very narrowly held on. She won by 2000 votes, or a 50.4% to 49.6% margin.
Former state senator George Logan is back after nearly beating Hayes in 2022. He will likely be a formidable candidate once again, though the incumbent won’t be caught off guard this time around. She now has a target on her back, but a Presidential electorate may help her next year.
Illinois-17: Rep. Eric SorensEn
This district is found in northwestern Illinois and centers around the Quad Cities, Peoria, and Rockford. Our incumbent is Rep. Eric Sorensen, who is a freshman having won for the first time in 2022. This is a district trending slowly to the right over time. Biden won it 52.7% to 44.9% in 2020. Sorensen had a tight race to get to Congress, winning only 52.0% to 48.0%.
Sorensen has two opponents in the GOP. First is farmer and local union head Scott Crowl. Possibly a more serious threat to the incumbent comes from former circuit court judge Joseph McGraw. The primary for this district is scheduled for March 19th, 2024.
Indiana-1: Rep. Frank J. Mrvan
This district is found in northwestern Indiana and contains the Chicago suburbs and exurbs. Rep. Frank J. Mrvan holds down this seat for us, and he first won it in 2020. Joe Biden won this district 53.4% to 45.0% in 2020 as it continues its slow march rightward. Mrvan had a robust challenge in 2022, but he beat it back 52.8% to 47.2%.
Challenging the incumbent in 2024 is Randy Niemeyer, a Lake County councilor and chair of that county’s GOP. There is still time for other challengers to get into the race. It will be another close one in this district!
Maine-2: Rep. Jared Golden
This district is found in portions of northern Maine, and it is one of the largest districts east of the Mississippi River. Rep. Jared Golden first won this seat in 2018, and has weathered multiple challengers since. Trump won this district and its electoral vote 51.6% to 45.5% in 2020. Golden won his race 53.1% to 46.9% in 2022, helped by the fact he is the most moderate Democratic House member left.
There are two serious challengers to Golden. State Rep. Mike Soboleski and State Rep. Austin Theirault are both running to be the final challenger for this race. Maine uses partisan primaries and then ranked choice voting for the general election, so spoilers aren’t a problem here.
Michigan-7: Open Seat
This district centers on Lansing in mid-Michigan, and it is very swingy. Joe Biden won this seat by a small 49.4% to 48.9% margin. Rep. Elissa Slotkin won her third term in Congress by a bigger 51.7% to 46.3% in 2022. Slotkin has decided to run for the open Senate seat this cycle, leaving behind a tough seat for us to defend. Former state senator Curtis Hertel, Jr. is our current nominee for this seat.
Running to flip this seat to the GOP is former state senator Tom Barrett, who also ran for this seat in 2022. He has higher name recognition, so he will start out with a small advantage. Nothing too daunting, however, as this classic swing seat will be a tossup no matter what.
Michigan-8: Open Seat
This district centers on Flint and the Tri-Cities area in mid-Michigan, and it is also very swingy. Joe Biden won this seat by a small 50.3% to 48.2% margin. Rep. Dan Kildee had an easier time running in 2022, having bested the opposition 53.1% to 42.8%. Kildee is cancer-free now, but he decided to retire after evaluating what his priorities are.
This retirement is still recent, so the race is very fluid. There are many prominent politicians on both sides of the aisle looking at this race. The first serious Democratic candidate is Michigan Board of Education member Pamela Pugh. The first serious GOP candidate is 2022 nominee Paul Junge, but given how badly he lost last time the GOP is sure to look for a better candidate this time.
Minnesota-2: Rep. Angie Craig
This district contains the southern Twin Cities suburbs, and then goes out into farm country for more voters. Rep. Angie Craig won this district in the 2018 blue wave election, and has faced some serious challengers since then. Biden won this district 52.5% to 45.4% in 2020, and Craig won this seat 51.0% to 45.7% in 2022. The seat is slowly trending to the left with time, as the Twin Cities grow.
Craig has two notable opponents so far in the running for the 2024 election. Defense attorney Tayler Rahm and former federal prosecutor Joseph Teirab. While I personally don’t think Craig is vulnerable in 2024, I am keeping this race on the list out of an abundance of caution.
Nevada-3: Rep. Susie Lee
This district is found in the Las Vegas area of Nevada. Nevada is a state that has been trending to the right recently, and has three incumbents at risk to varying degrees. The most vulnerable of them is Rep. Susie Lee, who won this swing seat in the 2018 blue wave. Biden won this district 52.4% to 45.7% in 2020, but Lee only won this district 52.0% to 48.0% in 2022.
Challenging Lee this time around are three different candidates. Former state senator Elizabeth Helgelien is in the running, as are conservative analyst Drew Johnson and State Rep. Heidi Kasama. Kasama is the preferred candidate of the national GOP at this time.
New Mexico-2: Rep. Gabe Vasquez
This district contains mostly southern and western New Mexico turf. Our incumbent is Rep. Gabe Vasquez, who is a freshman who first flipped this seat in 2022. Joe Biden won this district 51.9% to 46.1% in 2020, but Vasquez only narrowly flipped it in 2022, winning 50.3% to 49.7%.
Vasquez has only one challenger, former Rep. Yvette Herrell. This is the fourth straight run for this seat by Herrell; she has only won this district once in 2020. Even with Herrell running again, Vasquez will have a dogfight on his hands keeping this seat.
New York-18: Rep. Pat Ryan
This district is found in Upstate New York, and contains the exurbs of New York City and some rural turf. Rep. Pat Ryan is the incumbent, having won a 2022 special election to get to Congress. Biden won his district 53.4% to 45.0% in 2020, but Ryan had a tough time of it in the 2022 general election. He did survive by the skin of his teeth, winning 50.7% to 49.3%.
Ryan isn’t out of the clear yet, as he has another robust challenger in Alison Esposito, who was the Lt. Governor nominee for the GOP ticket in 2022. The New York Congressional map is subject to a lawsuit that is being decided right now, so the map could be totally different come 2024.
North Carolina-1: Rep. Don Davis
This district consists of the Inner Banks portion of North Carolina found east of the Research Triangle. Rep. Don Davis is a freshman, having won this district in the 2022 midterms. The state legislature turned a marginal seat that leaned Democratic into a seat stampeding to the right but still winnable. Biden won here 50.4% to 48.7%, and Davis won the better district only 52.4% to 47.6%
The race on the GOP side is still fluid thanks to the new maps. 2022 nominee Sandy Smith is running, but the GOP may wish for a better candidate than her. Also in the running is US Army Col. Laurie Buckhout, but more people may still get into the race.
Ohio-1: Rep. Greg Landsman
This district contains Cincinnati and some of its suburbs in the state of Ohio. The Ohio GOP tried their hardest to gerrymander this seat to keep it, but Rep. Greg Landsman was still able to win. Joe Biden won this district 53.5% to 45.0%, while Landsman won it 52.8% to 47.2% over a longtime incumbent in 2022. This district is slowly trending left, but Landsman is still vulnerable.
Only one candidate has decided to challenge Landsman so far. ADA Orlando Sonza is likely to be the GOP nominee for this seat, but there is still time for another challenger to emerge. It remains to be seen how Sonza does in opposition to the incumbent.
Ohio-9: Rep. Marcy Kaptur
This district covers the Toledo area and selected counties in northwestern Ohio. Rep. Marcy Kaptur lucked out in 2022 to face possibly the worst nominee the GOP put up for a competitive district. Trump won this district by a 50.6% to 47.7% margin in 2020, while Kaptur won 56.6% to 43.4% in 2022. Her 42 years of experience are a huge asset, though she is unused to a competitive district.
There are many Republicans hoping to knock her off in 2024. 2022 nutball nominee J.R. Majewski is among them. A more serious challenger is former State Rep. Craig Riedel, but he has to win the primary first. He failed to do that in 2022 and gifted us with Majewski.
Ohio-13: Rep. Emilia Sykes
This district is primarily focused on Akron, Canton, and the Cleveland suburbs in Ohio. Rep. Emilia Sykes is a freshman incumbent who won a highly contested race for this seat in 2022. Joe Biden won this district 50.7% to 47.9%, meaning it is very swingy in nature. Sykes won her ticket to Congress by a 52.7% to 47.3% result, greatly outperforming Biden’s 2020 numbers.
Sykes has attracted two challengers so far, but there is time for more of them to enter the race. First up is Chris Banweg, who is a Hudson city councilor. Also in the running is former state senator Kevin Coughlin. Sykes is a formidable opponent, and she cannot be counted out of any race.
Oregon-6: Rep. Andrea Salinas
This district takes in Salem, Oregon, as well as nearby portions of the Willamette Valley. Our incumbent is Rep. Andrea Salinas, who had to face a split in the Oregon Democratic Party in 2022. Joe Biden won this district 55.2% to 42.1% in 2020, but Salinas only won the district 50.1% to 47.6% in 2022. While she should be safer with a Presidential electorate, her margin of victory was quite small.
There is one candidate running for this seat, and another one seriously considering it. Former state senator Denyc Boles is running already, and 2022 nominee Mike Erickson is the one still on the fence about it. The primary for the state of Oregon is on May 21, 2024.
Pennsylvania-7: Rep. Susan Wild
This district covers the Lehigh Valley in eastern Pennsylvania. It has been a swing seat for a long time, even though a moderate Republican held it for a while. Rep. Susan Wild used the 2018 blue wave election to win this district. Joe Biden won this seat only 49.7% to 49.1% in 2020, while Wild won her third term in 2022 by a 51.0% to 49.0% margin over decent opposition.
Facing off against her in 2024 are quite a few possible contenders. Tech firm owner Kevin Dellicker is in the running. Also contesting the GOP primary is State Rep. Ryan Mackenzie. Finally, Maria Montero, a former advisor to GOP governors, has announced a campaign.
Pennsylvania-8: Rep. Matt Cartwright
This district covers northeastern Pennsylvania, and the primary focus is on the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area. Rep. Matt Cartwright watched his district go from a fairly secure one when he first ran in 2012 to a swing seat by the time 2020 rolled around. Trump won this district 50.9% to 48.0% in 2020. Cartwright survived yet again by a 51.2% to 48.8% margin in 2022.
Contesting this district for the GOP is business owner Rob Bresnahan, Jr. There are other potential candidates of course, but none of them seem interested in running for this seat. It may be another squeaker, but it looks like Cartwright may win yet again in 2024.
Pennsylvania-17: Rep. Chris Deluzio
This district takes in the suburbs of Pittsburgh in western Pennsylvania. Freshman Rep. Chris Deluzio held this district for the Democratic Party in 2022 after the previous incumbent ran for Senate. Biden won this seat 52.3% to 46.5% in 2020, and Deluzio won it by a larger 53.4% to 46.6% in 2022. This district is trending the right way for us, but it is still a marginal seat that will be a battleground.
There is only one serious opponent for Deluzio so far, and that is State Rep. Rob Mercuri. His opponent is used to winning on marginal turf, which will make him a formidable foe. Deluzio should be favored with a Presidential electorate, but nothing is guaranteed.
Virginia-7: Open Seat
This district takes in the Washington, D.C. exurbs as well as some rural Virginia turf. Rep. Abigail Spanberger has decided to retire to focus on her 2025 Virginia governor campaign. Joe Biden won this district 52.6% to 45.8% in 2020, but it is more Republican down the ballot. Spanberger won this seat 52.3% to 47.7% in 2022, and 2023 down ballot results point to this as a swing seat.
This was a recent retirement, so both sides have fluid primary elections still as candidates are still entering the race. Once the field settles and the primary election happens on June 18th, 2024, I will write about this race more. Until then, it is tough to follow who is in and is out.
Washington-3: Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
This district takes in southwestern Washington, and the Portland suburbs in particular. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez won this district in 2022 in a mild upset, which few expected to happen. That’s because Donald Trump won this district by a 50.8% to 46.6% margin, making her very vulnerable to being beaten in 2024. She only won her race 50.1% to 49.3% in 2022.
Like California, Washington uses a Top 2 primary election format. That means we won’t know who faces Perez until the Top 2 is settled on August 6, 2024. In the running for the spots in the Top 2 are Leslie French (a businessman), Leslie Lewallen (a Camas city councilor), and 2022 nominee Joe Kent.
Conclusion
We aren’t going to necessarily hold all of these districts. It is a combination of freshmen and experienced campaigners in marginal seats. In a good environment, we should have only a couple of these reverting to GOP control. In a mixed environment, it will be about equal. If things go bad, this list will be the casualty report for the 2024 House elections.
The DCCC will likely expend a lot of their resources in protecting these incumbents. It is very important that we keep these seats, because each seat lost makes the calculus for winning the House of Representatives that much harder. While many of the #Beatable18 could lose, we cannot count on defeating all of them. A good defense is just as important as going on the offensive!
Here is the Save the Majority 2024 Fund on ActBlue! There are plenty of Democratic members of the House that are still vulnerable to being defeated. These 23 members need a boost! Please donate and then share a link to this site on your social media! #SaveTheMajority