The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.
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Leading Off
● Election Night: Voting concludes Tuesday in Ohio for a high-stakes special election for a Republican-backed measure called Issue 1, a constitutional amendment that would make it harder for voters to pass future amendments―including an upcoming one to protect abortion rights. Voters in Mississippi also go to the polls the same day for their regularly scheduled party primaries for statewide offices, the state legislature, and other posts.
Ohio Republicans control the governorship and hold supermajorities in both chambers of the legislature, so ballot measures are one of the few ways that progressives can influence state government. To further restrict that avenue, Republican lawmakers placed Issue 1, which would increase the threshold for voter approval of amendments from the current simple majority to 60%, on the ballot.
The measure would also require voters to gather signatures from all 88 counties to qualify their own amendments instead of the current 44, a move designed to make it even harder for progressive measures to even reach the ballot in the first place. (Joe Biden carried just seven counties in 2020.)
Republicans have done nothing to hide the fact that they scheduled the vote, which is the only contest on Tuesday's ballot, for August in order to make it more difficult for pro-choice advocates to pass their own amendment on Nov. 7 that would enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution.
"This is 100% about keeping a radical, pro-abortion amendment out of our constitution," Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who is competing in the 2024 primary to take on Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, told fellow conservatives earlier this year. The head of Ohio Right to Life agreed in a recent interview with Bloomberg. "From the pro-life, pro-family, pro-Christian lane, yes, a hundred percent about abortion for us," said Mike Gonidakis.
But Issue 1 has also drawn backing from Ohio's business community. "But for the rest of our diverse group of coalition members, it has nothing to do with abortion," explained Gonidakis. "They're protecting their way of life."
Indeed, the November abortion amendment is by no means the only ballot measure that conservatives want to stop in order to safeguard their "way of life." For starters, a Republican state representative who sponsored the measure told colleagues last year that he hopes Issue 1 will thwart a 2024 effort to create an independent redistricting commission that would end the GOP's existing gerrymanders.
Several agriculture organizations also are pushing for Issue 1 to succeed, with the head of the Ohio AgriBusiness Association explaining to Farm and Dairy, "If Issue 1 does not pass, then we maintain the status quo which means that we will continue to be vulnerable … particularly to radical animal groups or radical environmental groups." While there are no active efforts underway to regulate the agricultural industry at the ballot box, the Ohio Dairy Producers Association warned that efforts like California's Proposition 12, which raised housing standards for animal confinement, could come to the Buckeye State.
Prominent business groups like the state Chamber of Commerce are likewise looking to hinder an ongoing campaign to increase the minimum wage from its current level of $10.10 per hour. "The business community is usually the one left holding the bag when these initiatives make it to the ballot," Chamber head Steve Stivers told Bloomberg, with the former GOP congressman adding, "We'd rather make it harder for that bad idea to make it on the ballot than have to raise $3 to $5 million every time to fight it."
But while the pro-Issue 1 faction has repeatedly claimed it's trying to make it harder for out-of-state interests to change the state's governing document for their own ends, much of the money it's raised has come from one Illinois billionaire, conservative megadonor Richard Uihlein. Despite Uihlein's largess, though, the GOP firm Medium Buying says that the "no" side has outspent opponents by a total of $12.4 million to $9.7 million on TV and radio ads.
The campaign to beat Issue 1 has run commercials depicting a pair of scissors slicing apart the state constitution as the narrator warns the amendment would give "corrupt politicians and special interests more control," while others have made use of LaRose's words to argue that conservatives want to "lock in Ohio's extreme abortion ban." The "yes" side, meanwhile, has resorted to transphobia by insisting, "Out-of-state special interests that put trans ideology in classrooms and encourage sex changes for kids are hiding behind slick ads." (Neither Issue 1 nor the abortion amendment has anything to do with any of these issues.)
There have been very few polls released during this entire campaign. The only one that directly asked respondents how they'd vote was a mid-July survey from Suffolk University that found "no" ahead by a strong 59-26 margin. More recent numbers from Ohio Northern University had a tiny 42-41 plurality saying they were in agreement with a terse summary of some of the effects of Issue 1, but as we noted at the time, it didn't actually inquire whether they'd vote "yes" or "no." Ballot measures are notoriously difficult to poll, however, so we'll only know which approach was best on Tuesday night.
One thing we do know, based on early voting (which concluded Sunday), is that considerably more people will cast ballots than Republicans expected or hoped when they set this race for the dead of summer. "For the naysayers who said there would be low turnout for an August election, I think the turnout for early and absentee voting has been very robust," said a spokesperson for the secretary of state's office. One of those naysayers was LaRose himself, who volunteered just weeks ago that he "wouldn't be surprised" if turnout was in the single digits.
Recent elections in other states, however, give progressives reasons to be optimistic. As FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich writes, voters in South Dakota rejected attempts to raise the threshold to pass certain ballot measures in both 2018 and 2022, while their counterparts in Arkansas torpedoed an amendment similar to Issue 1 just last year. Arizona did narrowly approve a measure to require a 60% majority to pass amendments to raise taxes or impose new ones in 2022, but that amendment did not go as far as Issue 1 would in Ohio.
The rules that conservatives want to impose in the Buckeye State are similar to those in place in Florida, which in 2006 voted to require at least 60% to pass constitutional amendments. (That's the second-highest threshold in the country after New Hampshire, where amendments passed by lawmakers need a hefty two-thirds voter support to go into effect, though Florida’s is the highest among states where voters can initiate amendments).
However, the contest to pass Amendment 3, as Florida data expert Matthew Isbell explains, was a far less partisan affair, as it triumphed in both red and blue counties on its way to a 58-42 win statewide. Just two of Florida's 67 counties, Pinellas and Volusia, voted in the negative, and both were quite competitive in presidential elections at the time.
Isbell writes in 2006 that the fight over Amendment 3 took place after several "controversial and niche issues" had passed at the ballot box, including a high-speed rail amendment that won 53-47 in 2000 only to be repealed 64-36 four years later. Republicans at the time controlled state government, but since few expected that Democrats would find themselves in the minority for long, it was far from clear that Amendment 3 would disproportionately harm either party. Democrats, though, have remained out of power ever since, and progressives have needed to make use of the amendment process―60% requirement and all―to get any of their priorities passed.
Over in Mississippi, meanwhile, the big race to watch is the GOP primary for the powerful post of lieutenant governor, which wields great authority over the state Senate. Incumbent Delbert Hosemann, as we recently detailed, is trying to fend off a far-right challenge from state Sen. Chris McDaniel, who also has benefited from Uihlein's help. The Magnolia State requires candidates win a majority of the vote in order to avoid an Aug. 29 runoff, so the presence of a little-known third contender named Tiffany Longino could be enough to send things into overtime.
The first polls close in Ohio at 7:30 PM ET, and our live coverage will begin then at Daily Kos Elections (Mississippi closes a half hour later). You can also follow us on Twitter for blow-by-blow updates.
Senate
● NV-Sen: Jeffrey Ross Gunter, who had a turbulent tenure as Trump's ambassador to Iceland from 2019 to 2021, announced Monday that he was joining the GOP primary to face Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen.
And the field may be about to grow again: The Nevada Independent's Sean Golonka reports that Tony Grady, who served as the Reno Air Races' director of flight operations, will launch his own campaign on Tuesday a year after losing the primary for lieutenant governor 31-25 to the eventual winner, Stavros Anthony. The two most prominent contenders are Army veteran Sam Brown, who is the favored candidate of national Republicans, and Jim Marchant, an election conspiracy theorist who narrowly lost the 2022 general for secretary of state.
Gunter, who works as a dermatologist, was a Trump donor during and after the 2016 elections, and the administration went on to make him ambassador to a country he'd never visited. He made news in 2020 in what's usually a low-profile post, though, when sources told CBS he was "paranoid" about his safety and wanted a gun and a "stab-proof vest" even though there was no indication he was in danger. An Office of the Inspector General report later said he'd been responsible for a "threatening and intimidating environment."
CBS also reported that Gunter left Iceland in February of 2020 and demanded he be allowed to work remotely from California. He eventually returned in May after Mike Pompeo had what a source, who speculated that the then-secretary of state didn't want to turn off a possible donor ahead of a future race, called a "gentle" conversation with Gunter.
The former ambassador himself, though, views his tenure as anything but a disaster. The Daily Beast's Sam Brodey reported in June that he'd made a website listing his 122 "triumphs," including how he'd crafted a tweet shared by Trump as well as "three Facebook videos to inspire people during the COVID-19 pandemic."
Brodey also relayed that Gunter, who grew up in California and started his practice there, has been registered to vote in the Golden State as a Democrat since 2000 and last cast a ballot there in 2018. The article also says that the now-candidate, who first started owning property in Nevada in 2007, also registered to vote in the Silver State as a Republican in 2021, though he doesn't appear to have voted there last year. Instead, Brodey says that Gunter asked for an absentee ballot back in California "but apparently did not return it."
Gunter launched his Senate bid Monday by declaring, "I’ll fight to support Donald Trump and his amazing and great America First agenda." There is no evidence, according to Brodey, that Gunter cast a 2020 ballot in any state to "support Donald Trump and his amazing and great America First agenda."
● NY-Sen, NY-Gov: While Republican Lee Zeldin didn't quite rule out a bid against Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand earlier this year, the former congressman appears to have turned his attention completely toward a possible 2026 rematch against Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul. Politico, which did not mention the possibility that Zeldin could take on Gillibrand, writes that he will decide whether to run for governor again sometime after next year's presidential election, with Zeldin himself saying, "Because that decision is still 18 to 24 months or so in front of us, I really don't spend my day thinking about it."
● TN-Sen: Democratic state Rep. Gloria Johnson filed FEC paperwork Friday to raise money for a campaign to take on GOP Sen. Marsha Blackburn.
● TX-Sen: Democratic state Rep. Carl Sherman told WFAA on Sunday he could decide "any day now" if he'll join the race to take on GOP Sen. Ted Cruz.
House
● IN-06, IN-LG: A spokesperson for Republican Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch told The Republic over the weekend that she'd asked Rep. Greg Pence "to consider being her running mate" as she campaigns to succeed termed-out Gov. Eric Holcomb. Pence, who is the older brother of Mike Pence, did not respond to the paper's questions about his interest, though this isn't the first time the idea has come up. Politico's Adam Wren relayed all the way back in January that Indiana political watchers had "widely gossiped" about the possibility of the congressman forgoing reelection in order to be Crouch's number two.
To complicate things, the nominee for lieutenant governor of Indiana is chosen by party delegates rather than primary voters or the candidate for governor. Crouch herself also has a tough primary ahead of her next year in a primary that includes Sen. Mike Braun, so she may not be in a position to urge delegates next year to select Pence or anyone else as her running mate. The eventual nominees for governor and lieutenant governor will run together as a ticket in the general election.
But as we wrote in January, it's possible that Pence would hedge his bets and seek reelection to the House while holding out hope he'll be nominated for lieutenant governor later. Indeed, then-Gov. Mike Pence won his 2016 primary for another term only to withdraw his name right ahead of the July deadline when Donald Trump chose him to be his own running mate: Indiana party leaders soon selected Holcomb to be their new nominee for governor.
● MN-03: From the Good for the Goose Dept.: With Rep. Dean Phillips openly mooting a primary challenge to Joe Biden ("Democrats are telling me that they want, not a coronation, but they want a competition"), the third-term congressman might soon find out just how unpleasant his own medicine tastes. According to Morning Take, a local Minnesota tipsheet, "The buzz within" Democratic Party circles is whether Phillips "will draw a primary challenger" thanks to his effort to derail the president's path to renomination.
To that end, the publication cites former state Sen. Melisa López Franzen as a "name that is floated frequently," though she hasn't said anything publicly. Franzen was first elected to the state Senate in 2012 and served for a decade, rising to the post of minority leader in her final two years. However, following the most recent round of redistricting, she opted not to run again in 2022 after new maps paired her with a fellow Democratic incumbent, Ron Latz. (Democrats went on to win back the Senate last year, earning their first trifecta in a decade.)
Franzen's old legislative district in the Minneapolis suburbs largely overlaps with Phillip's 3rd Congressional District, which would give her a base of support should she run. And Phillips would have no choice but to encourage her: "Democrats in the country need competition," he said on CBS' "Face the Nation" Sunday. "It makes everything better."
● OH-13: Politics1 tweeted Friday that it received "a tip" from an unnamed source saying that former state GOP chair Jane Timken "is in the field polling on a possible run" against freshman Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes. Timken last cycle competed in the crowded primary to succeed retiring Sen. Rob Portman, but the senator's endorsement wasn't enough to spare her from a distant fifth-place loss with 6% of the vote.
The GOP field to take on Sykes already includes 2022 nominee Madison Gesiotto Gilbert, who lost their first bout 53-47. Donors don't seem excited about Gilbert's second try, however, as she finished June with just $37,000 in the bank. Sykes had $450,000 available to defend this 51-48 Biden constituency, though Republicans may have the chance to pass a new gerrymander this cycle.
● OK-03: GOP Rep. Frank Lucas' office said over the weekend that the congressman had been hospitalized for "non-life threatening injuries" Friday after he was "injured while working at his ranch." His team added, "Congressman Lucas will be back on the ranch and in the district soon and expects to make a speedy recovery."
● OR-06: Former state Sen. Denyc Boles on Monday became the first notable Republican to announce a campaign against freshman Democratic Rep. Andrea Salinas for a constituency in the Salem area and southwestern Portland suburbs that Joe Biden took 55-42. Salinas won a tight 50-48 victory two years later as Republican Christine Drazan was carrying this seat 46-44 against her Democratic rival, now-Gov. Tina Kotek; another 9% went to independent Betsy Johnson.
Boles, for her part, has been appointed three times to the legislature, but she's only won one election to remain there. Marion County commissioners picked her to fill a vacancy in 2014 after she told them she wouldn't run for a full term, and she kept her word. Boles returned to the chamber the same way four years later but said this time she'd campaign in the next election, and she successfully defended her seat.
Boles was soon appointed to the upper chamber after state Sen. Jackie Winters died in office, but she faced a tough 2020 campaign to keep her new post. Boles ended up losing to Democrat Deb Patterson by a tight 48.5-47.8 as Biden was winning her 10th District 52-45.
● PA-08: The Standard-Speaker reported late last month that Jim Bognet, who lost the 2020 and 2022 general elections to Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright, has taken a new job with the GOP pollster co/efficient, though that doesn't necessarily mean that he won't campaign here again next year. "For today, I'm focused on this new opportunity," he said of a possible third attempt for this 51-48 Trump seat in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area. An unnamed GOP source told Inside Elections in April that there was "definitely donor fatigue" with Bognet, but no serious contenders alternatives have announced over the following three months.
● TX-28: A former spokesperson for Jessica Cisneros reiterates to the Daily Beast that she hasn't decided whether she'll challenge conservative Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar for renomination again after a back-to-back pair of tight losses.
● VA-07: Inside Elections' Erin Covey takes a look at the candidates who could run to succeed Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger next year in the event that, as Politico reports she will, the congresswoman retires to prepare for a 2025 bid for governor. (Spanberger herself has yet to confirm or deny that story.) Covey begins on the Democratic side, where she mentions several new names for this 53-46 Biden constituency:
- former Del. Joshua Cole
- Marine veteran Joel Griffin
- Del. Elizabeth Guzman
- Prince William County Supervisor Margaret Angela Franklin
- Del. Candi King
- Del. Michelle Maldonado
- Del. Briana Sewell
- 2020 5th Congressional District nominee Cameron Webb
Cole and Griffin are each competing this November in competitive races for the state House and Senate, respectively, and like the rest of this group, they've said nothing about their interest in a congressional bid. But Del. Danica Roem, who is seeking a promotion to the state Senate, unambiguously told Covey she was "not running and won't be running for VA-07 under any circumstance."
On the GOP side, Covey relays that unnamed party operatives want Green Beret veteran Derrick Anderson to run again a year after he lost the primary to Prince William County Supervisor Yesli Vega 29-24. She also mentions Vega, who went on to lose to Spanberger 52-48; Navy SEAL veteran Cameron Hamilton; and retired Army Gen. Tim Kadavy as possible contenders.
Attorneys General
● NC-AG: The Republican Attorneys General Association on Monday endorsed Rep. Dan Bishop, a far-right House member who is his party's frontrunner for this open seat.
Mayors and County Leaders
● Harris County, TX Judge: Democratic Judge Lina Hidalgo announced Monday she was taking a temporary leave of absence as the chief executive of Texas' largest county as she receives treatment for clinical depression, and that she hopes to resume her duties by early September. Democrat Rodney Ellis, who is the most senior member of the five-member county commission, will preside over the body while she's gone, while Hidalgo says her chief of staff will "continue to manage the day-to-day operations in my office."