The New York Times has a great round up of today's meeting between the White House and congressional leaders. Unfortunately, the more one reads the more one might just get the feeling that escalation is inevitable. Granted, President Obama is quoted as saying "dispense with the straw man argument that this is about either doubling down or leaving Afghanistan," but there are reasons to suspect that there will be some escalation or "doubling down".
Feel free to debate the following points.
There is no doubt that General McChrystal overstepped when he pushed for the troop buildup, and it seems he now understands that. President Obama used Tuesday's meeting to be really blunt about the whole thing;
And in the final moments of the meeting, Mr. Obama sought to put to rest suspicions of friction with General McChrystal. "I’m the one who hired him," Mr. Obama said, according to participants. "I put him there to give me a frank assessment."
It's obvious that President Obama wants to get Afghanistan right. We may have been there for eight years, but he wants his chance to get our eye back on the ball and get the train wreck back on track. It won't be easy. However, there is also little choice in the matter. President Obama didn't pick General McChrystal on a whim, but rather because of the general's experience in unconventional warfare and surgical strikes. Two other things are coming. First, the winter will soon set in and drench mountain-paths vital to the militants with treacherous snow and thereby reducing the number of attacks. Second, Pakistan.
The national security team will spend Wednesday discussing AfPak in depth. There is a lot to discuss. I have had not 1, not 2, but 3 diaries over the last week about the coming Pakistani-assault upon the militant stronghold of South Waziristan. Pakistani opinions and indeed the statements of the Pakistani government make clear that they want a long-term commitment from the White House regarding Afghanistan. When you consider the time of year in relation to winter and the coming assault across the border in Pakistan, you begin to wonder if the Pakistani military plans to use the winter against the militants and prepare for a long battle for South Waziristan. The key word applying to both sides of the border is "long".(go here for the latest regarding the approaching offensive)
As the cold and snow gets ready to come, there is a real sense that it's the last best time to turn the tide against the militants. We know from today's discussion at the White House that there is no plan to remove troops from Afghanistan, where this year President Obama has already added 21,000 soldiers. Even Vice-President Biden's recommendation of a surgical approach against Al-Qaeda does not involve a draw down. Perhaps the number will not be 40,000 troops, but I find it hard to think that there won't be some escalation. We might have been there for eight years, but the war for the hearts and minds of Afghanistan only began this year.