"Moderate" GOoPer Arlen Specter is facing a challenge from his right -- Rep. Pat Toomey. Given primary dynamics, I've expected this to be a tight primary race. Pennsylvania wingnuts are loving Toomey, who has the support of the Club for Growth and a whole host of right-wing personalities.
But the first few polls showed nothing even remotely resembling a race. A February poll frmo Franklin & Marshall College showed Specter winning 55-17. A December poll, this one from Muhlenberg College, showed Specter winning 52-25. So much for my predictive power (which isn't a very powerful power to begin with).
But suddenly, things looked bleaker for Specter. A Hoeffel poll gave Specter a weak 44 percent approval rating. But it was a partisan internal, so easy to discount. Then a second poll, featured in the Wall Street Journal, gave Specter a weak 47-37 lead and an even more anemic 37 percent reelect rating. But that poll was sponsored by Club for Growth, who has a reason to hype their candidate Toomey.
But now we have an independent poll, courtesy of SurveyUSA, and the results (PDF) are even worse for Specter. 3/13-15. MoE 5%
Specter 47
Toomey 38
Other/Undecided 15
And the internals give plenty more hope to Toomey -- he's actually losing amongst the anti-abortion set 41-39. He'll win those handily as he spreads his message of wingnuttery across the state. Specter is also winning amongst those who consider themselves "conservative", 43-39. That should flip by election day.
I used to think that Toomey needed to win this primary in order for Democrat Joe Hoeffel to have a chance. Given Specter's numbers as of late, it looks like Hoeffel has a chance regardless who emerges from what figures to be a bloody Republican primary.
The Senate picture looks better every day. (This update merited some editing of the Senate Outlook page.)