Muhlenberg College/Allentown Morning Call. Likely Democratic primary voters. MoE 5%
5/6 - 5/9: Sestak +5 (47/42)
5/5 - 5/8: Sestak +4 (46/42)
5/4 - 5/7: Sestak +2 (44/42)
5/3 - 5/6: Tied (43/43)
5/2 - 5/5: Specter +5 (45/40)
5/1 - 5/4: Specter +8 (48/40)
4/30 - 5/3: Specter +4 (46/42)
4/29 - 5/2: Specter +9 (49/40)
4/28 - 5/1: Specter +6 (48/42)
Sestak's five-point lead represents a shift of 11 points from just 9 days ago when Specter led by 6. Sestak has gained 5 points and Specter has dropped 6.
This is the first Muhlenberg/MCall tracker to be run entirely since Sestak went on the air with this hard-hitting ad going after Arlen Specter for switching parties:
Sestak has staked his campaign on this ad -- and on its underlying message, that he is the real Democrat in the primary, the only one you can trust. And at least in the Muhlenberg tracker, Sestak's message seems to be working.
In mid-April, I argued that you shouldn't count out Joe Sestak even though he was trailing in the polls. The same could be said for Specter, even as he apparently is now trailing. Specter continues to enjoy the support of the party establishment and its machine, which will no doubt prove helpful on election day.
On the other hand, if Sestak's message continues to penetrate, he could widen his lead over Specter. We've commissioned Research 2000 to poll the Pennsylvania Democratic primary contest this week. We'll have results by the end of the week, so between our poll and the Muhlenberg tracker, there should be plenty of numbers to crunch for us political junkies!