Who could ever forget the prediction of the Broder Bounce?
It may seem perverse to suggest that, at the very moment the House of Representatives is repudiating his policy in Iraq, President Bush is poised for a political comeback. But don't be astonished if that is the case.
Well, a year has passed, and wouldn't you know it? No bounce!
So, thanks (I would have to guess) to people like Atrios, who came up with the new-media savvy and totally blog-o-licious innovation of actually keeping track of and checking on predictions from the punditry who set the agenda for our national discourse, we find ordinary citizens, well, actually keeping track of and checking on predictions:
Long Island, N.Y.: Mr. Broder, thanks for taking time today for this chat. About a year ago you wrote a column where you stated: "It may seem perverse to suggest that, at the very moment the House of Representatives is repudiating his policy in Iraq, President Bush is poised for a political comeback. But don't be astonished if that is the case." I think it's safe to say that this comeback has yet to materialize. In your opinion, what has transpired over the last 12-plus months where Bush has failed to capitalize on any opportunity to garner any significant increase in support outside his high-20 percent core backers?
David S. Broder: That was certainly one of my less astute observations. He has been less flexible in the past year than I expected after the 2006 election, and I think he continues to pay a price for his rigidity. On the S-CHIP program, for one example.
To his credit, Broder doesn't run away from this one. I say it's to his credit because these days, you actually have to take special note of people who don't run away from or try to hide their blunders. It used to be assumed that you just couldn't deny reality like that, so it has never before been particularly creditworthy not to. But times have changed, and so Broder teaches us a sort of lesson-within-a-lesson. The Conventional Wisdom -- or "CW," as that paragon of the CW community, Newsweek, likes to call it -- has changed with the times. But not everyone has been able to keep up with it.
What do I mean?
Well, on the one hand, this embarrassingly inaccurate prediction is Broderism at its worst. The White House had already declared -- in that other paragon of the CW community, Time, no less -- its strategy for the next two years:
[W]hen it comes to deploying its Executive power, which is dear to Bush's understanding of the presidency, the President's team has been planning for what one strategist describes as "a cataclysmic fight to the death" over the balance between Congress and the White House if confronted with congressional subpoenas it deems inappropriate. The strategist says the Bush team is "going to assert that power, and they're going to fight it all the way to the Supreme Court on every issue, every time, no compromise, no discussion, no negotiation."
So how much clarity of vision does it really require to see that Bush isn't going to be any more flexible?
Was he flexible when he only became president by squeaking it out in the Supreme Court in 2000? No.
Was he flexible with his razor thin re-election in 2004? Absolutely not. In fact, he called it a mandate. Quite in contradiction to the CW.
So he's got a clear history here. Why think he'd vary it now? Or rather, then?
There was no reason to believe it. And yet it was believed, by more than just Broder. It was believed by the entire Washington establishment. By Official Washington. And, truth be told, more than a few new media types as well. Such is the power of the CW.
And that's the lesson of what we now, with the benefit of hindsight, can call Broder's ossified thinking. By all rights, Bush should have been more flexible. That's what the CW was. That's what the CW always is when you get your ass handed to you in an election. You mellow. You back off. You compromise.
You have to. Because the traditional levers of political power are no longer in your hands.
But what if you just... defy tradition? You'd likely leave Broder and the rest of the CW community without their polestar. And then what?
In that sense, Broder and others can be forgiven for thinking that Bush would do what all presidents do in the same situation. After all, even here at Daily Kos, there was some resistance to the suggestion that a president who hadn't vetoed a bill in six years would suddenly start vetoing everything in sight. It wasn't possible. It would destroy the Republican Party forever. We would get our agenda passed, because the CW said we could. (And we could not, therefore, risk discussing impeachment, because it would "suck up all the oxygen" and surely would be responsible for sinking that agenda.)
On the other hand, it's exactly that kind of ossified thinking that the Bush "brain trust" depends on to get away with its power grabs. That is, they depend on the likelihood that no one would ever believe they were going to do what they were going to do, even if you told them point blank before you did it, because it was just too damned crazy to be believed. And so Bush and his cohorts found their opposition and even "neutral" observers looking on in stunned silence as they rode roughshod over the CW (and that little trifle we call the Constitution, too) and did pretty much whatever the hell they wanted to. In fact, the crazier the better, meaning the better to achieve the Cheney post-Watergate dream of establishing the precedent that the president gets to do whatever the hell he wants, on his say-so alone.
There were people who saw it coming and believed it, to be sure. And many of us were among them. But it's also no less clear than Bush's insanity was to us, that Official Washington believed that the CW would eventually prevail, as it always had throughout their lifetimes.
Only it didn't this time.
So maybe now it's time to ask whether it really ever did. Was the CW on scandalized presidents, or presidents who are rebuffed at the polls, ever really correct?
After Watergate? Did the CW really prevail? When the stories that comprised the Watergate scandals first began to break, Official Washington was in stunned disbelief. Moving the Congress to the brink of impeachment took months upon months of a slow drip, drip, drip of revelations. By the the "end" of the "long national nightmare" -- after the resignation, after the pardon, after the adoption of new laws regulating campaign finance, outlawing warrantless wiretapping, and limiting presidential war-making authority -- it was surely the CW that nothing like this would or could ever really happen again. It would be political suicide. Right?
Then came Iran-Contra. And again, stunned disbelief. Calls for investigation. Then actual investigation. Actual revelations. Actual convictions!
But then... nothing. Pardons. Reversals on technicalities. And finally, the election of a "healer" president, with a new agenda and a willingness to put it all behind us. Because surely, this was just too crazy ever to happen again. Americans just wouldn't stand for it!
And yet, here we are. Not just in the same situation, but at the mercy of the very same people who did it the first two times!
The Congress -- certainly at the heart of Official Washington -- is only just now waking up to the realities of where the Bush-Cheney revival of what Arthur Schlesinger famously termed "The Imperial Presidency." They've seen their agenda thwarted by reckless vetoes that fly in the face of the CW, signing statements they can't get a legal handle on, and the refusal to honor Congressional subpoenas (an offense for which the House Judiciary Committee voted to impeach Nixon, by the way). And they've responded, after a fashion, with the first contempt of Congress votes in 25 years (since -- surprise! -- the Regan/Iran-Contra administration), and have had to resort to the use of pro forma sessions to prevent recess appointments, pocket vetoes, and even calls for extraordinary special Congressional sessions.
Now it's dawning on them that the president's intransigence will likely prevent anything of substance at all from being done for the rest of the 110th Congress.
So what can we expect from the 110th?
Well, if they can't impeach because it'll derail the agenda that's just been declared derailed, and they're not entirely willing to take on a full-court press on the subpoena power we were told was the most important reason for electing a Democratic majority, then the least we might ask of them is to not pass something: specifically, the retroactive amnesty and bulk surveillance authority the Bush-Cheney "administration" seeks in order to help cover its tracks.
The CW, of course, is that Congress will buckle. Because it always has.
But hasn't Broder (and Broderism) been clear enough in demonstrating that it's time for a new CW?
If we're going to be reality-based, it's time to take off the blindfold and find reality.