Minnesota legislature Elections 2022: Report Card
Welcome to Oggoldy’s 2022 Minnesota Legislature report card. It’s been a few months, but real-life kind of got in the way of political involvement, so better late than never? If nothing else this gives the midterm data points going into the next election cycles.
The Minnesota Democratic Farmer-Labor Party, aka the DFL continued their statewide dominance of the state, and managed to flip a narrow but cohesive trifecta from a split government coming out of the 2020 election. I’ve added the topline results for governor (won by DFLer Tim Walz 52.27-44.61 against Republican Scott Jensen) and Secretary of State (DFLer Julie Blaha won 47.47-47.13 against Republican Ryan Wilson) as that represents a clear high-water mark for a Republican in the state, with left-wing spoiler parties taking a combined 5.33% of the vote after being propped up by the MN GOP.
Here are the copies of the official maps as imposed by a tripartisan judicial panel, as every map going back to the 1960s has been, transposed into DRA. Election results cited in each district are 2020 President Trump (R) vs Biden (D), 2018 Gubernatorial Johnson (R) vs Walz (D), and 2016 Presidential Trump (R) vs Clinton (D). Senate seats perfectly nest two House districts (A and B) inside them. The general numbering configuration is 4 groups:
1) typewriter style started in the NW corner and working east, then returning slightly further south and moving east again. This is done for the entirety of Oustate Minnesota. Senate districts 1 (NW corner) through 26 (SE corner) are considered outstate, which is a decrease in 2 Senate seats in Outstate Minnesota due to population hemorrhaging in the region with brain drain in full force in large swaths of the rural portions of the state.
2) Twin Cities suburbs also go typewriter style with SDs 27 (NW exurbs) through SD58 (SE exurbs), for 2 more than existed last decade due to population growth in the suburbs and urban cores, moving most districts inwards pretty significantly, with 2 “new” seats being added on the periphery from outstate
3) Minneapolis. The most Democratic white-majority major city in the entire country (Trump got a whopping 11% here). This includes SD59-63, unchanged in number from the previous decade, but having shed the tiny bits of first ring suburbs that had been included for population balance previously
4) St. Paul. Still overwhelmingly DFL stronghold, but not quite as liberal as its larger Twin to the west. This includes SD64-67, which is also unchanged from the previous decade, but also shed the vestigial chunks of inner suburbs due to population growth in the city.
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::6c555f45-86d6-441d-bd76-11ea80fe9244
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::258a5c0d-2aca-480f-959f-6506acc838f2
District 1 (~Old 1):
Prediction:
Northwest Minnesota. This area bloats due to massive population loss. 1A takes it all of Lake of the Woods County. 1B takes in half of Norman County plus some more. Representatives John Burkel, Debra Kiel and Senator Mark Johnson all Rs, all live in their existing districts. Johnson faced a primary against retired engineers Dave Hughes, the 2nd place GOP primary in CD-7 against now Representative Michelle Fischbach in 2020, with the incumbent winning easily. No Dem filed in SD-1. Burkel faces a slightly-above-Some Dude candidate in Dem James Sceville, a local politician in Thief River Falls, but Burkel is safe. Kiel faces 2020 opponent Cindy Ansbacher, Kiel will win but a comparable 40-point margin she put up in 2020.
What happened?
As Expected, R sweeps, continued lurching leftwards as the population hemorrhages from brain drain. Senator Johnson steps in to become Republican leader in the Senate, replacing Jeremy Miller in that role.
2022 Ratings:
House 1A: 68-30 Trump (’20), 60-36 Johnson, 64-28 Trump (’16)
HD1A Rating: Safe R
House 1B: 62-36 Trump (’20), 55-41 Walz, 59-33 Trump (’16)
HD1B Rating: Safe R
SD1 Rating: Safe R
2022 Results:
HD1A Results: 69-27 Jensen, 68-27 Wilson, 76-24 Burkel (R)
HD1B Results: 64-32 Jensen, 64-31 Wilson, 71-29 Kiel (R)
SD1: Johnson (R) Unopposed
District 2 (~Old 2A and 5B):
Prediction:
This district lies directly to the east of SD1 in NW Minnesota. To accommodate the expansion of next-door District 1, 2A becomes almost all of Beltrami County, and is most closely aligned with the old HD-5A due to population loss, this region sheds a House district. Current HD-2B State Rep Steve Green (R) is running for the technically vacant Senate Seat, as SD-2 incumbent Paul Utke’s (R) house was drawn into SD-5 and is running there. Running on the DFL line in SD-1 is local tribal leader Alan Roy. Roy has an interesting profile, but this won’t be enough to help his campaign, though his fundraising chops are commendable, and he has scared Green into burning through his entire warchest left over from his House days. Roy likely has a future in DFL party leadership or local elected office. HD-2A incumbent Matt Grossel is running in his current seat, though covering a lot of new territory in Bemidji which shifts this seat 20 points to the left into the competitive realm. Dems are running Beltrami County Commissioner Reed Olson, and are pumping a lot of resources into his rural populist campaign with Reed outraising Grossel nearly 2:1. I expect this to be a close race, but it’s an outstate Trump seat in a Dem midterm, so the edge goes to the incumbent. HD-5A incumbent Matt Bliss (R) is running in 2A, as his old seat is the majority within this new configured 2A. Bliss is running against Bemidji State University executive Erika Bailey Johnson, but the district is too red to be competitive in spite of Bliss’s previous win-some-lose-some electoral record the last few cycles. FWIW, Baily-Johnson has outraised the incumbent over 2:1.
What happened?
Continued R movement, with HD2A going from a Walz +2 seat in 2018 to a Jensen+8 seat in 2022. Dems will likely no longer attempt to compete in this part of the state at the legislative level
2022 Ratings:
House 2A: 51-47 Trump (’20), 49-47 Walz, 51-39 Trump (’16)
HD 2A Rating: Lean R
House 2B: 59-39 Trump (’20) 53-43 Johnson, 58-35 Trump (’16)
HD 2B Rating: Safe R
SD2: Likely R
2022 Results:
HD2A Results: 52-44 Jensen, 54-40 Wilson, 54-45 Grossell (R)
HD2B Results: 60-36 Jensen, 61-33 Wilson, 63-37 Bliss (R)
SD2: 60-40 Green (R)
District 3 (Old 3A and 6B:
Prediction:
Welcome to the northern side of the Iron Range and the BWCA / Arrowhead. The seat largely resembles the old seat, just bloating to make up for lost population. Senator Tom Bakk (I) retired after a career that saw him go from the Senate Majority Leader as a Dem, to being a turncoat independent that propped up a narrow Republican majority in the Senate after an unceremonious coup following the 2020 elections. The race to succeed him his quite bitterly divided, on every front other than mining, as every candidate is trying to out-pro-mining everyone else. Republicans endorsed Babbitt mayor (pop. 1385) Andrea Zupancich, who is seen as a bit of a loose cannon was one of the infamous “Iron Range DFL mayors for Trump” in 2020. Her full throated Trumpism enough to win the GOP endorsement and primary against iron mining executive Kelsey Johnson. Awaiting Zupancich in November is Hermantown (pop 10,211) city councilman Grant Hauschild (D). It is ancestrally as Dem as any place in the state, but has been moving rightward at an alarming clip. Bakk, since his retirement has endorsed a number of DFL and GOP candidates in various Iron Range seats, and Zupancich got his highly coveted endorsement in October. Hauschild has outraised Zupancich 3:2, but with Bakk’s endorsement, I give this hotly contested race ever so slightly in favor of Zupancich’s favor. Dem State Reps Rob Ecklund, is running for reelection in HD-3A Ely major Roger Skraba, who like Zupanchich was one of the “Iron Range DFL mayors for Trump”. Unlikely in the Senate race, Bakk endorsed DFL incumbent Ecklund, and Ecklund has outraised Skraba not feeling the need to burn through his old war chest, so Ecklund needs to be seen as the favorite for a 5th term. Mary Murphy (D), first elected in 1976 is running for reelection again in HD-3B against Republican Natalie Zelznikar. In spite of not having much of a political resume, Zelznikar has raised a respectable amount of money as a challenger, which keeps this seat out of Safe D territory.
What happened:
Yea, this one wasn’t on anyone’s bingo cards: not mine, not Tom Bakk’s, no one’s. All 3 seats flipped, in opposite directions, with a 100% going against Tom Bakk’s endorsements (and my predictions). The Skraba result wasn’t super surprising, as that rural area is trending hard and fast to the right (Walz +7 in 2018 to Jenson+1 in 2022). But the attacks against Mary Murphy were against her ability to serve due to her advanced age and failing health. The Democratic ticket did well in the area for an outstate district, but Murphy lost due to her medical fitness to serve. Hard after Skraba likely doesn’t get a serious challenger moving forward, but Dems are going to go hard for Zeleznikar given how much bluer that seat is given its proximity and influence of Duluth. Moreover Bakk, who was caucusing with the R’s in the senate previously had his seat flip back to the Dems with Zupanchinch being slightly too crazy of a person to win in this red-trending but still purple seat. Hauschild will never have a comfy reelection, and is likely one of the 2 or 3 top targets for Republicans in 2026.
2022 Prediction:
House 3A: 52-46 Trump (’20), 52-45 Walz, 50-42 Trump (’16)
House 3A Rating: Lean D
House 3B: 52-46 Biden, 57-38 Walz, 48-44 Clinton
House 3B Rating: Likely D
SD3 Rating: Lean R
2022 Results:
HD3A Results: 48.50-47.63 Jensen, 50-44 Wilson, 49.98-49.91 Skraba (R) (flip)
HD3B Results: 54-43 Walz, 49-46 Blaha, 50.00-49.85 Zeleznikar (R) (flip)
SD3: 50.77-49.15 Hauschild (D) (flip)
District 4 (Old 4A and 4B):
Prediction:
This is Moorhead and the immediate surrounding area. SD4 was the ONLY district in the northern 60% of the state that was OVER populated and therefore shrunk ever so slightly geographically. Still, Dems hold all 3 seats here, but 2 of them are retiring and are among the most likely seats in the state to flip from left to right. Senate Kent Eken retired instead of running as the only Dem in a Trump won seat remaining in the Senate. Democrats have settled on an unconventional candidate in KVRR (Fargo Fox affiliate) chief meteorologist Rob Kupec to carry the blue banner in SD-4. There is a primary on the Republican side, with former Moorhead city councilman Dan Bohmer getting the party endorsement, but right-wing activist Edwin Hahn. Hahn is best known for being a former Republican Party of Clay County Chair, but due to his unhinged behavior was ousted from his post by the party itself. If Hahn had won the primary, may have had a shot, but since cooler heads prevailed and Bohmer easily won his primary, he is a prohibitive favorite. Freshman Dem incumbent Heather Keeler is running for reelection in by far the more liberal half of the senate seat in 4A against Republican psychologist Lynn Halmrast. In the decidedly more conservative 4B, serial over-performing Democrat Paul Marquart is retiring, and this seat is almost certainly going to flip to the Republicans in November as Hawley mayor Jim Joy is a prohibitive favorite against Some Dude Dem John Hest.
What happened:
As expected, Marquart’s old seat flipped to Republicans, but Moorhead itself stayed more Dem than other outstate areas, with Walz actually GAINING a point in 2022 than his 2018 performance, which was enough for Dems to hold the open Senate seat. Kupec did surprisingly well winning the Senate seat by 5.3% running well ahead of the Dem ticket overall.
2022 Ratings:
House 4A: 57-40 Biden, 57-38 Walz, 49-40 Clinton
House 4A Rating: Safe D
House 4B: 59-38 Trump (’20), 54-42 Johnson, 58-34 Trump (’16)
House 4B Rating: Safe R (flip R)
Senate 4 Rating: Likely R (flip R)
2022 Results:
HD4A Results: 58-38 Walz, 54-39 Blaha, 59-41 Keeler (D)
HD4B Results: 59-37 Jensen, 60-35 Wilson, 63-37 Joy (R) (flip)
SD4: 52-47 Kupec (D)
District 5:
Prediction:
This district doesn’t really have a predecessor district on the 5A side, as it takes parts from a BUNCH of now defunct districts, while 5B is kinda-sorta a successor to 9A.In the senate seat, SD-2 incumbent Paul Utke is running here after his home was drawn in here and the local state senator Paul Gazelka went all-in on his gubernatorial election and came up short. That being said, there was a primary and the local party endorsed AGAINST Utke, going instead with retired army veteran Bret Bussman, a “both parties are far too liberal” and “separation of church and state shouldn’t be a thing” kind of guy. Utke ultimately prevailed by 25 points. Utke is going to win another term in this central Minnesota district against Dem Some Dude John Peters. The House side is only marginally more boring, even without any incumbents. Lake Shore mayor Krista Knudsen is going to win easily against Hubbard County Democratic Party Vice Chair Brian Hobson in 5A. On the other hand, in 5B the local convention chose conservative activist and COVID denier Mike Wiener, an otherwise Some Dude level candidate against Wadena GOP Chair, and Wadena County Commissioner Sheldon Monson. Monson moved ahead to the primary against Wiener but came up short with the outsider winning by 40 votes, a fraction of a percent. No Dem filed in 5B, so Weiner will certainly be elected to the Minnesota House.
What happened:
As expected, Republican blowouts across the board, with a net movement of ~15(!!!!) points to the right over the previous quadrennium. The DFL no longer exists in western Minnesota as a functional party, matching much of similarly agrarian low population density areas across the Great Plains.
2022 Ratings:
House 5A: 61-37 Trump (’20) 62-34 Johnson, 67-27 Trump (’16)
House 5A Rating: Safe R
House 5B: 62-35 Trump (’20) 65-32 Johnson, 61-31 Trump (’16)
House 5B Rating: Safe R
Senate 5 Rating: Safe R
2022 Results:
HD5A Results: 67-30 Jensen, 68-28 Wilson, 70-29 Knudsen (R)
HD5B Results: 71-25 Jensen, 71-23 Wilson, 75-24 Wiener (R)
SD5: 73-27 Utke (R)
District 6 (Old 10A and 10B)
Prediction:
The closest predecessor district here was the old SD-10, but this is based further south than the old district. GOP Senators Carrie Ruud (SD-10) and Justin Eichorn (SD-5) were both drawn into this seat. Ruud and Eichorn went to the convention, and Eichorn left with the endorsement and Ruud withdrew, leaving Eichorn as the prohibitive favorite in the general election against former State House Sergeant at Arms Steve Samuelson, the son of former State Senate President Don Samuelson, who represented some of this area in the state legislature from 1969-2003. 10A Representative Dale Lueck (R) is not running for reelection, and Spencer Igo (R) is opting to move homes to run in next door in 7A which contains more of his base, but not his Grand Rapids house, leaving this seat officially open in spite of having 2 incumbents drawn in it. Local pastor Ben Davis won the GOP endorsement, and is a prohibitive favorite to be the next representative here, though he does have a serious DFLer opponent in Grand Rapids City Councilman Rick Blake, but this area has moved too far rightward for Blake to have a shot. Meanwhile in 6B, Josh Heintzman gets a brand-new district, with the only difference between this seat and the old 10A is the fact Heintzman’s tiny home down of Nisswa changes into the Brainerd-based 6B, so this district is 95% new to him, but he does live here. Heintzman fended off a token primary challenge from the right from Some Dude Doug Kern. Heintzman should coast to reelection in his new district against Dem Some Dude Sally Boos.
What happened:
R sweep as expected, continued rightward movement in the high single digits since 2018.
2022 Ratings:
House 6A: 61-37 Trump (’20), 55-41 Johnson, 59-34 Trump (’16)
House 6A Rating: Safe R
House 6B: 62-36 Trump (’20), 57-39 Johnson, 61-31 Trump (’16)
House 6B: Safe R
Senate 6 Rating: Safe R
2022 Results:
HD6A Results: 59-38 Jensen, 61-34 Wilson, 62-38 Davis (R)
HD6B Results: 60-36 Jensen, 62-33 Wilson, 65-35 Heintzeman (R)
SD6: 64-36 Eichorn (R)
District 7 (Old 7A and 7B):
Prediction:
This is the successor district to the old SD-7, but expanded further south due to being short on population. Dave Tomassoni (D->I), Tom Bakk’s right-hand man announced he was due to an aggressive case of ALS, departing with a rather emotional speech on the Senate floor via text to speak from his wheelchair, as he could no longer talk nor walk. Unfortunately, the Senator passed away between the end of the 2022 legislative session and election day. His retirement left open this recently strong Republican district. Republicans settled on 2016 and 2020 HD-6A candidate Rob Farnsworth who lost twice to DFL representative Julie Sandstede, once quite narrowly. This seat is a LOT juicier for him, and he is quite likely to end of in the State Senate come November. The DFL had a hotly contested primary between Ben DeNucci, and Kim McLaughlin, neither one of which have much of a chance in November, though. DeNucci won the primary by a curly one with a margin of 41, which is certainly attributable to him having the official party endorsement. In 7A we have our first member-on-member general election. Freshman Republican Spencer Igo is running against 3 term DFLer Julie Sandstede, mentioned above. It’s hard to see Sandstede holding on again after winning by the skin of her teeth in 2020 under bluer lines. Still, she is well financed and isn’t phoning it in. 7B is slightly less conservative than 7A, but is still redder than it was prior to redistricting and political shifts in the region. DFL Representtive Dave Lislegaard is running for reelection in this Trump+4 seat. There isn’t much in terms of a Republican bench in the eastern Iron Range, so Matt Norri doesn’t have an A or B level political resume, but given the trends and map of this district, he and Lislegaard will have a close match. Tom Bakk endorsed the incumbent DFLer, and that’s the smallest of edges in rating this Toss-up seat
What happened:
Igo defeating Sandstede in 7A was not a surprise. 7B moving to the right is also unsurprising, though Lislegard did hang on. At this pace though, this may be Lislegard’s last win in this northern Minnesota based seat. Jensen carried 7B by 3 votes which is pretty tight, but this was a shift from Walz winning by 16 there just 4 years earlier. This area is moving right, and fast.
2022 Ratings:
House 7A: 55-43 Trump (’20), 51-44 Walz, 51-41 Trump (’16)
House 7A Rating: Likely R (Member v Member)
House 7B: 51-47 Trump (’20), 56-40 Walz, 47-44 Trump (’16)
House 7B Rating: Lean D
Senate 7: Safe R
2022 Results:
HD7A Results: 51-44 Jensen, 52-41 Wilson, 54-46 Igo (R)
HD7B Results: 47.68-47.66 Jensen, 48-45 Wilson, 51.10-48.74 Lislegard (D)
SD7: 53-46 Farnsworth (R)
District 8 (Old 7A and 7B):
Prediction:
Duluth, formerly numbered SD-7. It’s very blue, and it’s not getting a larger population so the borders puffed out a bit to fill out population. DFL representatives Jennifer Schultz and Liz Olsen kept their districts largely intact, and Senator Jen McEwen is also in there. Senator Jen McEwen (D) is running against UMD college student Alex Moe (R), little more than a sacrificial lamb. Incumbent Representative Liz Olson (D) is running for reelection in 8B, and after the GOP convention ended without an endorsement Art Johnson bested Allan Kehr in the primary, though neither man would have been a threat to Olsen’s reelection prospects. The other Duluth based state Rep, Jen Schultz is leaving the legislature behind for a suicide mission to take on Congressman Pete Stauber (R) in MN-8. To replace her the local DFL endorsed city official Alicia Kozlowski. Kozlowski then defeated Duluth City Councilman Arik Forsmanin the subsequent primary. Kozlowski will be a State Rep after defeating Republican nominee Becky Hall in November.
What happened:
Duluth, unlikely the rest of northern Minnesota has remained every bit as Democratic as it has been, and if anything moved slightly to the left cycle-over-cycle. This is due to the high population density of Duluth relative to the other areas of outstate Minnesota.
2022 Ratings:
House 8A: 67-30 Biden, 68-27 Walz, 59-31 Clinton
House 8A Rating: Safe D
House 8B: 70-28 Biden, 69-27 Walz, 60-30 Clinton
House 8B Rating: Safe D
Senate 8 Rating: Safe D
2022 Results:
HD8A Results: 68-27 Walz, 63-29 Blaha, 70-29 Olson (D)
HD8B Results: 71-25 Walz, 67-27 Blaha, 71-29 Kozlowski (D)
SD8: 72-28 McEwen (D)
District 9 (Old 8A and 8B):
Prediction:
West central Minnesota, deeply conservative farmland with Fergus Falls being the only town of any note out there. Due to massive population loss, this seat is essentially a combination of the old 8A, 8B and 12A, so this is a place in outstate where a House seat was lost due to population shifts. Current 8B Representative Jordan Rasmussen (R) is running for what is an open senate seat following the retirement of long-time State Senator Bill Ingebrigtsen. Rasmussen fended off a surprisingly close primary against a challenger from the right against activist Nathan Miller. The general election between Rasmussen and local attorney Cornel Walker (D) is a formality, and Rasmussen will be a State Senator in January. 12A Rep Jeff Backer (R) is running safely for reelection in the new 9A and will win the November election against DFL Some Dude Nancy Jost. In District 9B there will be a new Representative, and his name is Tom Murphy (R), a retired local farmer, after he defeats DFL Some Dude Jason Satter.
What happened:
R dominance, as expected. In the Senate race, Walker waged a write-in campaign after losing his primary, and did manage to get about 9% of the vote as a protest write-in candidate from the right.
2022 Ratings:
House 9A: 63-35 Trump (’20), 57-39 Johnson, 61-31 Trump (’16)
House 9A Rating: Safe R
House 9B: 68-30 Trump (’20), 63-34 Johnson, 66-27 Trump (’16)
House 9B Rating: Safe R
Senate 9 Rating: Safe R
2022 Results:
HD9A Results: 62-34 Jensen, 63-32 Wilson, 66-33 Backer (R)
HD9B Results: 68-29 Jensen, 69-27 Wilson, 70-30 Murphy (R)
SD9: 63-29 Rasmussen (R)
District 10 Old 10B and 15B:
Prediction:
This is a greatly reconfigured district that takes in a large chunk of rural central Minnesota between St. Cloud and Brainard. Former State Rep Jim Newberger (R), best known as the sacrificial lamb who got flatted by Amy Klobuchar in 2018, former State Rep circa 1982-2000 Steve Wenzel, and local activist Nathan Wesenberg fought to a draw at the local convention and none of them received the endorsement. Wesenberg emerged with a narrow plurality win in the primary with 36%. No matter how he got there, Nathan Wesnberg will be a State Senator after he defeats Suzanne Cekalla (D) in November. Representative Ron Kresha is safe for reelection against Dem Chuck Parins (D) in 10A. In 10B there was another non-endorsement primary on the Republican side. Nothing really stood out between Blake Paulson, Isaac Schultz or John Ulrick, but ultimately Schultz prevailed from the scrum and he will be a state representative next year after his general election against Dem Hunter Froelich.
What happened:
Republicans dominated as expected. Movement of about 15 points to the right from the last mideterm in 2018, and in line with 2020 Trump toplines, as the pattern seems to become the new baseline in rural Minnesota.
2022 Ratings:
House 10A: 68-30 Trump (’20), 61-36 Johnson, 66-28 Trump (’16)
House 10A Rating: Safe R
House 10B: 76-22 Trump (’20), 67-29 Johnson, 74-20 Trump (’16)
House 10B Rating: Safe R
Senate 10 Rating: Safe R
2022 Results:
HD10A Results: 67-30 Jensen, 67-27 Wilson, Kresha (R) Unopposed
HD10B Results: 74-22 Jensen, 75-20 Wilson, Schultz (R) 79-21
SD10: 72-27 Wesenberg (R)
District 11 (Old 11A and 11B):
Prediction:
This is more or less the old SD-11, which keeps numbering easy here. Senator Jason Rarick is running for reelection and will win another term against Dem John Puera. 2020 HD-11A nominee Jeff Dotseth is back for a second bite at the apple, but this time the seat is open as DFL incumbent Mike Sundin has retired. Dotseth did well in 2020 and is a strong candidate in this right-trending Clinton-Walz-Biden seat. Dems are not punting though, and have recruited prominent local lawyer Pete Radosevich (D). This is one of the few seats where Republicans have outraised Democrats, so this seat is ever-so-slightly favored to flip D to R. This is an immensely competitive election. In 11B, incumbent Nathan Nelson is running for reelection and will face a far less interesting November in the far-redder half of this district against local Dem Eric Olson.
What happened:
Dotseth proved to be an overperformer, flipping the seat for the Red Team, even as Walz carried the area, but by a 12-point narrower margin than 2018.
2022 Ratings:
House 11A: 49.17-48.51 Biden, 55-41 Walz, 56-45 Clinton
House 11A Rating: Lean R (flip R)
House 11B: 66-32 Trump (’20), 56-39 Johnson, 62-31 Trump (’16)
House 11B Rating: Safe R
Senate 11 Rating: Safe R
2022 Results:
HD11A Results: 49-46 Walz, 48-46 Wilson, 51.16-48.71 Dotseth (flip)
HD11B Results: 63-33 Jensen, 64-29 Wilson, 68-32 Nelson (R)
SD11: Rarick (R) 61-39
District 12 (Old 12A and 12B):
Prediction:
Western Minnesota, with 12B basically being Alexandria, and 12A being the sparsely populated areas south and west of Alexandria. This is as cut at dry as possible, as Senator Torrey Westom, and Representatives Paul Anderson, and Mary Franson are all running for reelection in safely Republican seats. Dems Kari Dorry, Edie Barrett and Jeremy Vinar are the Dems they will defeat, respectively.
What happened:
Nothing of note. All Republican incumbents easily carried their districts. Results well to the right of 2018, and in line with Trump 2020 numbers.
2022 Ratings:
House 12A: 65-33 Trump (’20), 57-40 Johnson, 60-32 Trump (’16)
House 12A Rating: Safe R
House 12B: 67-31 Trump (’20), 62-36 Johnson, 66-27 Trump (’16)
House 12B Rating: Safe R
Senate 12 Rating: Safe R
2022 Results:
HD12A Results: 65-33 Jensen, 66-30 Wilson, 71-29 Anderson (R)
HD12B Results: 66-31 Jensen, 68-28 Wilson, 70-30 Franson (R)
SD12: 68-28 Westrom (R)
District 13 (Old 13A and 13B):
Prediction:
This is the populated parts of Stearns County that is not St. Cloud, very similar to the old version of SD-13. Much like SD-12, this one is easy, as all 3 incumbent Republicans are running for reelection in safely Republican seats; in this case it’s Senator Jeff Howe and Representatives Lisa Demuth and Tim O’Driscoll who are running and going to win against Democrats Alissa Brickman, Andrea Robinson, and Melissa Bromenschenkel.
What happened:
Everything went as expected, with R dominance across the board and mirroring Trump 2020 voting patterns.
2022 Ratings:
House 13A: 69-29 Trump (’20), 62-35 Johnson, 66-27 Trump (’16)
House 13A Rating: Safe R
House 13B: 61-36 Trump (’20), 58-39 Johnson, 62-30 Trump (’16)
House 13B Rating: Safe R
Senate 13 Rating: Safe R
2022 Results:
HD13A Results: 68-29 Jensen, 70-26 Wilson, 74-26 Demuth (R)
HD13B Results: 60-37 Jensen, 62-33 Wilson, 67-33 O’Driscoll (R)
SD13: 70-30 Howe (R)
District 14 (Old 14A and 14B):
Prediction:
St. Cloud. This is going to be hotly contested turf, as it always is these days. Senator Aric Putnam (D), a St. Cloud State University Professor is facing 14A Representative Tama Theis in one of the truly marquee races of the entire election cycle, as SD-14 is the 34th seat in terms of partisanship and is absolutely necessary for Republicans to retrain their majority, and Dems have little margin for a majority without it (though it does exist). Democrats have dropped a LOT of money running broadcast TV ads in the Minneapolis-St. Paul media market for Putnam/against Theis. Putnam has also outraised Theis head-to-head. Republicans simply don’t have the resources to match the advertisements, and as this is a Walz-Biden seat, Putnam is the narrow but clear favorite for another term here. In the seat Theis leaves behind, Republicans have tapped local businesswoman Bernie Perryman, while Dems have turned to retired teacher Tami Calhoun. Republicans are keen on keeping their half of St. Cloud, and have put more money into Perryman than to Theis in the upper chamber, showing where they believe their prospects lie. Perryman is one of the clear success stories in terms of GOP recruitment, and it’s pretty obvious she is favored to win. In the slightly more liberal HD-14B incumbent Dan Wolgamott is running for reelection against St. Cloud restaurant owner Aaron Henning. Walgomott is also a beneficiary of the DFL broadcast TV and radio expedetures, and he has outraised his challenger, so the incumbent gets the slight edge here. Both House seats are also expected to be incredibly competitive and close, in addition to the Senate seat.
What happened:
A bunch of competitive seats, as expected, but all of them fell the way they went into the election, and the way this prediction had anticipated beforehand. Perryman (R) narrowly held Theis’ House seat, Wogamott narrowly held his House seat, and Putnam defeated Theis to retain his Senate seat. Anticipate the St. Cloud area to remain a battleground for the foreseeable future.
2022 Ratings:
House 14A: 49-48 Biden, 50-46 Walz, 49-41 Trump (’16)
House 14A Rating: Lean R
House 14B: 50-46 Biden, 50-45 Walz, 49-41 Trump (’16)
House 14B Rating: Lean D
Senate 14 Rating: Lean D
2022 Results:
HD14A Results: 48.91-47.21 Walz, 50-44 Wilson, 50.64-49.25 Perryman (R)
HD14B Results: 50-46 Walz, 47.72-45.61 Wilson, 52-48 Wolgamott (D)
SD14: 52.29-47.58 Putnam (D)
District 15 (Old 16A and 16B):
Prediction:
Western Minnesota, south of the Minnesota River. This seat is very similar to the old SD-16, but has grown geographically due to large population losses in the area. Senator Gary Dahms and Representatives Chris Swedzinski and Paul Torkelson are all safe for reelection in their respective seats against Ania Gaul, Keith VanOverbeke, and Tom Kuster.
What happened:
Same as most of the other rural seats, Trump 2020 baselines are now universal, and shifted to the right from 2018.
2022 Ratings:
House 15A: 63-35 Trump (’20), 55-41 Johnson, 60-31 Trump (’16)
House 15A Rating: Safe R
House 15B: 67-31 Trump (’20), 57-40 Johnson 65-27 Trump (’16)
House 15B Rating: Safe R
Senate 15 Rating: Safe R
2022 Results:
HD15A Results: 64-33 Jensen, 65-31 Wilson, 70-30 Swedzinski (R)
HD15B Results: 66-31 Jensen, 68-27 Wilson, 73-27 Torkelson (R)
SD15: 71-29 Dahms (R)
District 16 (Old 17A and 17B):
Prediction:
This seat most resembles the old SD-17, being the northern bank of the Minnesota River up to Wilmar and Litchfield. Much like the rest of rural, conservative western Minnesota there is going to be little turnover as Senator Andrew Lange and Representatives Dean Urdahl and Dave Baker are all safe for reelection against Fernando Alvarado, Robert Wright and Fred Cogelow, their Dem opponents.
What happened:
3 incumbent Republicans, all win easily. Trump 2020 baseline trend continues.
2022 Ratings:
House 16A: 67-31 Trump (’20), 57-39 Johnson, 63-29 Trump (’16)
House 16A Rating: Safe R
House 16B: 62-36 Trump (’20), 56-40 Johnson, 59-33 Trump (’16)
House 16B Rating: Safe R
Senate 16 Rating: Safe R
2022 Results
HD16A Results: 65-32 Jensen, 66-29 Wilson, 73-27 Urdahl (R)
HD16B Results: 62-35 Jensen, 64-32 Wilson, 73-27 Baker (R)
SD16: 70-30 Lang (R)
District 17 (Old 18A and 18B):
Prediction:
Here we are getting closer to being considered SW Metro exurbs, taking in Hutchinson to parts of Carver County. The successor district to the old SD-18, it moves considerably further towards the metro as the remaining rural seats have grown in size, and thus also has considerable turf from the old HD-47A. Senator Scott Newman (R) is retiring from this seat after his home was drawn out of this district, and he ended up double bunked with Lange next door in SD-16. Old 18B incumbent Representative Glenn Gruenhagen is running for a promotion to the Senate and will get it after a November victory over 2020 Dem nominee against Newman: Chad Tschimperle. Republican activist Dawn Gillman will be the next Representative from 17A after she defeats DFLer Jennifer Carpentier. Sibley County Commissioner Bobbie Harder was unopposed in the primary and is also unopposed in the general election, so congratulations to Representative Bobbie Harder on her unanimous victory.
What happened:
Played out as expected, with Trump 2020 baselines matched almost exactly.
2022 Ratings:
House 17A: 67-30 Trump (’20), 62-34 Johnson, 65-26 Trump (’16)
House 17A Rating: Safe R
House 17B: 67-31 Trump (’20), 61-35 Johnson, 66-26 Trump (’16)
House 17B Rating: Safe R
Senate 17 Rating: Safe R
2022 Results:
HD17A Results: 66-31 Jensen, 68-27 Wilson, 70-30 Gillman (R)
HD17B Results: 66-32 Jensen, 68-27 Wilson, Harder (R) Unopposed
SD17: 70-30 Gruenhagen (R)
District 18 (Old 19A and 19B):
Prediction:
Mankato and the surrounding area. This district is little changed from the old SD-19. Dem Senator Nick Frentz is running against Republican retired businessman Mark Wright. Neither party has invested much here, and Frentz’s modest fundraising totals still exceeded Wright’s, so Frentz is a clear favorite for reelection in this Biden+11 seat. In one of the biggest upsets and surprises of the 2020 election was Republican Susan Akland unseating Dem State Rep Jeff Brand by 108 votes. Brand is running for another non-consecutive term, and both sides put this race as a priority and expect it to be razor close again. Brand outraised Aklund, and Walz and Ettinger are expected to once again carry the seat handily, so this is a seat that is slightly more likely to flip than not. In the bluer 18B, which is basically Mankato proper, Dem Luke Frederick is safe for reelection against Republican Some Dude Dar Vosburg.
What happened:
Dems flipped the 1-term Republican rental 18A by defeating Susan Akland. Margins largely match Biden-Trump 2020 baseline, as seen elsewhere in outstate Minnesota, with Mankato proper moving slightly left, ala Duluth
2022 Ratings:
House 18A: 50-47 Biden, 58-39 Walz, 47-43 Trump (’16)
House 18A Rating: Lean D (Flip D)
House 18B: 58-39 Biden, 63-32 Johnson, 48-40 Clinton
House 18B Rating Safe D
Senate 18 Rating: Likely D
2022 Results:
HD18A Results: 52-46 Walz, 49-47 Wilson, 51.04-48.84 Brand (D) (flip)
HD18B Results: 60-37 Walz, 54-39 Blaha, 60-40 Frederick (D)
SD18: 58-42 Frentz (D)
District 19 (Old 24A and 24B):
Prediction:
This seat is essentially Fairbault (19A) and Owatanna (19B) which lie half way between Minneapolis and the Iowa border on I-35, and is the successor district to the old SD-24. Like other rural districts this cycle, this has 3 Republican incumbents running against token Dem opposition. Senator John Jasinski and Reps Brian Daniels and John Petersburg will handily defeat Dems Kate Falvey, Carolyn Treadway and Abdulahi Ali Osman in November.
What happened:
Same as other similar districts, 2020 POTUS baseline is accurate predictor, trends from 2018 are rightward.
2022 Ratings:
House 19A: 60-37 Trump (’20), 53-43 Johnson, 58-33 Trump (’16)
House 19A Rating: Safe R
House 19B: 59-38 Trump (’20), 53-43 Johnson, 58-33 Trump (’16)
House 19B Rating: Safe R
Senate 19 Rating: Safe R
2022 Results
HD19A Results: 59-37 Jensen, 62-33 Wilson, 65-35 Daniels (R)
HD19B Results: 56-40 Jensen, 59-35 Wilson, 71-29 Petersburg (R)
SD19: 65-35 Jasinski (R)
District 20 (Old 21A and 21B):
Prediction:
This is southeastern Minnesota along the border with Wisconsin down the Mississippi River, it’s a successor district to the old SD-21. Representative Steve Drazkowski, one of 4 members of the of the right-wing splinter caucus within the Minnesota House is running for Senate after incumbent Mike Goggin retired earlier this year before maps were drawn. He faced fellow state Rep Barb Haley, a more traditional Republican politico in the convention and won the endorsement against her, with Haley abiding by the endorsement and not pursuing a primary. Drazkowski will win against Dem Some Dude Brad Drenckhahn in November. Because the incumbent Senator retired and both State reps vied for a promotion, both HD-20A and HD-20B are both open. There was no GOP endorsement at the convention in 20A, so Jesse Johnson and Pam Altendorf had a highly contentious primary, with Altendorf winning 52-48. She is the prohibitive favorite against Dem Laurel Stinson in November. In 20B, Winona County Commissioner Steve Jacobs won the GOP endorsement, and will be the next State Rep from 20B after defeating DFLer Elise Diesslin, a former Elgin City Councilwoman.
What happened:
Altendorf won the 20A race, but a lot of Johnson’s voters never came around to Altendorf after the bitter primary and propped up 3rd party candidate Roget Kittelson for over 10% of the vote.
2022 Ratings:
House 20A: 54-43 Trump (’20), 48.20-47.56 Johnson, 52-39 Trump (’16)
House 20A Rating: Safe R
House 20B: 63-35 Trump (’20), 55-42 Johnson, 60-31 Trump (’16)
House 20B Rating: Safe R
Senate 20 Rating: Safe R
2022 Results:
HD20A Results: 52-45 Jensen, 56-39 Wilson, 52-38 Altendorf (R)
HD20B Results: 61-36 Jensen, 64-32 Wilson, 66-34 Jacob (R)
SD20: 62-38 Drazkowski (R)
District 21 (Old 22A and 22B):
Prediction:
The southwest corner of the state, a physically larger version of the old SD-22 due to massive population loss in this corner of the state. Senator Bill Weber didn’t even draw a Dem challenger, and fended off his primary challenger from the right in August, so Weber is guaranteed another term. Joe Schomacker, the current 22A incumbent is going to win another term against Dem Pat Baustian in the new 21A. In 21B, political outsider Marj Fogelman won the endorsement and easily beat local pastor Jayeson Sherman in the primary and will likewise win in November against Dem Michael Heidelberger.
What happened:
Clean Republican sweep in farmland. Notably, this area is mostly associated with Sioux Falls South Dakota in terms of media markets and commercial business. It also was one of the few places in rural Minnesota where the Republican performance moved right relative to Trump 2020 margins.
2022 Ratings:
House 21A: 71-28 Trump (’20), 60-37 Johnson, 67-26 Trump (’16)
House 21A Rating: Safe R
House 21B: 63-35 Trump (’20), 52-45 Johnson, 60-33 Trump (’16),
House 21B Rating: Safe R
Senate 21 Rating: Safe R
2022 Results:
HD21A Results: 74-26 Jensen, 72-25 Wilson, 74-26 Schomacker (R)
HD21B Results: 63-33 Jensen, 65-30 Wilson, 67-33 Fogelman (R)
SD21: Weber (R) Unopposed
District 22 (Old 20A and 23B):
Prediction:
This is a skinny district that runs Northeast-Southwest just missing Mankato on its west and takes in a bunch of territory that used to be in the old SD-20 and SD-23. Senator Julie Rosen retired after this map basically destroyed her old seat and double bunked her with Senator Rich Draheim. Draheim thus has a completely cleared field, lacking both a primary and general election opponent. Old 20A Representative Bjorn Olson is safe for reelection against Dem Marisa Ulmen in the new HD-22A. Old 23A Representative Brian Pfarr is safe for reelection to the new HD-22B against Dem Marcia Stapleton.
What happened:
Everything went as expected with Republican sweeps by mostly 2020 POTUS numbers.
2022 Ratings:
House 22A: 65-33 Trump (’20), 55-42 Johnson, 63-29 Trump (’16)
House 22A Rating: Safe R
House 22B: 64-34 Trump (’20), 54-32 Johnson, 62-30 Trump (’16)
House 22B Rating: Safe R
Senate 22 Rating: Safe R
2022 Results:
HD22A Results: 63-34 Jensen, 66-30 Wilson, 69-31 Olson (R)
HD22B Results: 62-34 Jensen, 64-31 Wilson, 69-31 Pfarr (R)
SD22: Draheim (R) Unopposed
District 23 Old 27A and 27B):
Prediction:
Southern Minnesota, made up of Albert Lea (23A) and Austin (23B), which stands as the successor district to the old SD27. And I’m sure you’ve figured out the pattern here: 3 Republican incumbents, all running for reelection. Senator Gene Dornink along with Representatives Peggy Bennet and Patricia Mueller are all running for reelection. While Dornink’s and Bennett’s races against token Dems Brandon Lawhead, and Mary Hinnenkamp respective are going to be uneventful, Mueller’s race is going to be interesting as popular 5-term Austin mayor Tom Stiehm is an A+ level recruit for the blue team, and this race is going to be tight in this Trump/Walz district. While Stiehm has outraised and out campaigned Mueller, this is an area trending against Democrats, and without a Dem tailwind, this is probably too big of a lift for Stiehm this year.
What happened:
Republicans won all of the races, with Mueller-Steihm being the closest race. Steihm did not perform as well as his profile indicated he should have.
2022 Ratings:
House 23A: 60-37 Trump (’20), 50-46 Johnson, 63-29 Trump (’16)
House 23A Rating: Safe R
House 23B: 52-46 Trump (’20), 53-43 Walz, 58-34 Trump (’16)
House 23B Rating: Lean R
Senate 23 Rating: Safe R
2022 Results:
HD23A Results: 59-38 Jensen, 61-34 Wilson, 66-34 Bennett (R)
HD23B Results: 50-46 Jensen, 52-42 Wilson, 56-44 Mueller (R)
SD23: 61-39 Dornink (R)
District 24 (Old 26A and 26B):
Prediction:
This is a reconfigured version of the old SD-26, and takes in southern Rochester, but instead of taking in southern Olmsted County as the old district did, the new district takes in rural turf well to the west of Rochester in the adjacent county. The cartographers making this choice likely salvaged one of the two Republican-held Rochester Senate seats for the Red Team, at least for the early part of the decade. Rochester is growing at an alarming clip due to the Mayo Clinic becoming more and more powerful and drawing in major numbers of highly educated medical professionals, getting bluer and bigger every year. Trump won this seat by 11 in 2016, but only 2 in 2020, and those trends show no signs of slowing let alone reversing as Jeff Ettinger carried this seat in the MN-1 special election this year against now-Congressman Brad Finstad. Still, Senator Carla Nelson (R) breathed a major sigh of relief when she saw the maps that could have drawn her out of a seat entirely, as she is slightly favored against her 2020 opponent Dr. Aleta Borrud (Nelson won 51-49) under the old lines, which admittedly were more friendly to Borrud than the new ones. Borrud is one of a select few candidates who has raised 6 figures, and has outraised Nelson 2:1, so her electoral prospects are not so dim, and Nelson is only slightly favored in the rematch in this rapidly bluing seat. Republican Representative from the old 25A Duane Quam, a notoriously lazy campaigner was the other Republican beneficiary in this map, and he now sits in a bright red district and faces only token DFL opposition in Keith McLain. On the flip side, the Rochester-based half of the seat that makes up 24B is home to long-time DFL Representative Tina Liebling, who sits in a comfy position in her bright blue district and will handily defeat Republican challenger Katrina Pulham.
What happened:
Relative to 2020 Rochester proper in 24B moved left, while the rurals around Rochester moved rightward in 24A. Senator Nelson had an impressive performance in her recently reddened seat in the new lines.
2022 Ratings:
House 24A: 59-38 Trump (’20), 54-43 Johnson, 58-32 Trump (’16)
House 24A Rating: Safe R
House 24B: 57-41 Biden, 55-42 Walz, 47-43 Clinton
House 24B Rating: Safe D
Senate 24 Rating: Lean R
2022 Results:
HD24A Results: 58-39 Jensen, 61-35 Wilson, 64-36 Quam (R)
HD24B Results: 58-40 Walz, 53-44 Blaha, 56-44 Liebling (D)
SD24: 57-43 Nelson (R)
Districts 25 (Old 25A and 25B):
Prediction:
Northern Rochester, and a reconfiguration of the old SD-25, but shrunk way down into being almost entirely within Rochester proper now due to explosive growth. With the shedding of the few Republicans that remained in the old SD-25, Senator David Senjem (R) opted to run for Olmsted County Commissioner instead of facing sure defeat, and old HD-25A Rep Nel Pierson (R) opted to run in the MN-1 special election, and when he lost that he opted to retire instead of lose reelection to his old House seat. With Senjem’s retirement, Old 25B incumbent Liz Bolden (D) is running for his seat and will win, in spite of the fact Republicans are propping up one of the pothead parties’ candidates here hoping to squeeze in former Rochester City Commissioner (an appointed position) Ken Navitsky (R); it won’t be nearly enough in this Biden+21 seat. With Pierson being scared out of running again, and Duane Quam being drawn into 24A, that leaves 2020 Dem nominee Kim Hicks (against Quam) a clear path to the House in November as she is a prohibitive favorite against Republican realtor Wendy Phillips. With Representative Bolden soon to be Senator Bolden, she leaves behind her old seat for fellow DFLer and businessman Andy Smith, who will easily defeat his token GOP opponent John Robinson.
What happened:
With the growth of Rochester and subsequent smaller districts, the two anticipated flips both flipped. The districts did not move much electorally relative to the 2020 election, with the realignment seen that cycle seems to be permanent across outstate Minnesota.
2022 Ratings:
House 25A: 57-41 Biden, 55-42 Walz, 47-43 Clinton
House 25A Rating: Safe D (flip D)
House 25B: 62-35 Biden, 62-34 Walz, 53-36 Clinton
House 25B Rating: Safe D
Senate 25 Rating: Safe D (flip D)
2022 Results:
HD25A Results: 57-41 Walz, 52-45 Blaha, 55-45 Hicks (D) (flip)
HD25B Results: 64-33 Walz, 68-27 Wilson, 64-36 Smith (D)
SD25: 58-39 Bolden (D) (flip)
Districts 26 (Old 28A and 28B):
Prediction:
SE Corner of the state. This is the home of Senate Majority Leader Jeremy Miller. Miller of course is propping up a pothead party candidate, as this seat is just on the cusp of being competitive if the stars if the starts align, but Miller really doesn’t need it as he has always been a major overperformer as he has a golden last name in Winona politics. Miller will defeat Dem Daniel Wilson with or without Legal Marijuana Now Party candidate Eric Leitzen. If there is one constant in Minnesota politics it’s that southeastern Minnesota’s 2 House seats will be won by Dem Gene Pelowski and GOPer Greg Davids, with them entering office in 1987 and 1991 respectively. They each had one opponent file against them in Stephen Doerr (R) and Laura Thorson (R) respectively. Davids defeated Thorson in the primary, so he is unopposed for his next term now. Pelowski has a GE opponent but is going to win yet again.
What happened:
Pelowski is the last of a dying breed of rural centrist Democrats. His margins are getting narrower, and the district continues to nudge rightward, movement that is only mitigated due to Winona State University being in this district. I don’t know when the 71 year old Pelowski retires since being first elected in 1986, but when he does, this seat is likely to flip to Republicans.
2022 Ratings:
House 26A: 52-46 Biden, 57-39 Walz, 46-44 Clinton
House 26A Rating: Safe D
House 26B: 59-39 Trump (’20), 49-48 Johnson, 56-36 Trump (’16)
House 26B Rating: Safe R
Senate 26 Rating: Safe R
2022 Results:
HD26A Results: 51-46 Walz, 48.18-47-17 Wilson, 55-45 Pelowski (D)
HD26B Results: 57-40 Jensen, 59-36 Wilson, Davids (R) Unopposed
SD26: 58-39 Miller (R)
Districts 27 (Old 30A and 31A):
Prediction:
We now officially enter the metro on the northwest corner. The old metro seats started at 29, and the new ones start at 27, so in effect 2 full Senate seats moved from outstate to the metro due to population shifts in the last census. This seat is in the northwest exurbs, and doesn’t really have a fully defined successor district, as it takes in portions of a bunch of other old seats, but it closest to 30A and 31A with bits of 15B smashed together. Senators Andrew Mathews and Mary Kiffmeyer were double bunked here. Kiffmeyer immediately announced her retirement in spite of representing FAR more of the new seat than Mathews, and having more seniority than her colleague. Mathews is going to be reelected against Dem Emy Minzel. 15B State Shane Mekeland (R) will win against Dem Ronald Theissen. Republican House Leader from the old 31A Kurt Daudt is running for reelection in this seat, survived his primary against challenger Rachel Davis and will do the same against his general election challenger Brad Brown.
What happened?
This is exurbia, with the sparsely populated areas outside of the towns being some of the most conservative turf in the state, so Republicans romped right along the lines of Trump, with some small but noticeable leftward movement at the top of the ticket in the Princeton and Zimmerman based 27B, going from Trump+44 to Jenseon+40. Could be a rounding error, or it could be the slight left shift seen in suburbia is making its way into the relatively densely populated areas in exurban communities.
2022 Ratings:
House 27A: 68-29 Trump (’20), 63-33 Johnson, 67-25 Trump (’16)
House 27A Rating: Safe R
House 27B: 71-27 Trump (’20), 64-32 Johnson, 69-23 Trump (’16)
House 27B Rating: Safe R
Senate 27 Rating: Safe R
2022 Results:
HD27A Results: 67-29 Jensen, 68-26 Wilson, 71-29 Mekeland (R)
HD27B Results: 68-28 Jensen, 69-24 Wilson, 72-27 Daudt (R)
SD27: 72-28 Mathews (R)
District 28 (Old 32A and 32B):
Prediction:
Isanti (A) and Chisago (B) Counties on the northern edge of the Twin Cities metro, nearly identical to the old SD-32. Much like its rural conservative brethren, this exurban conservative seat has 3 incumbent Republicans for 3 seats: Mark Koran (28), Brian Johnson (28A) and Ann Neu Brindley (28B) will defeat their token DFL opponents: Victoria Bird, Erik Johnson, and Katie Malchow respectively, with 28B a rematch of the 2020 election where Bridley defeated Malchow 62-38.
What happened?
The Republicans swept here, with margins splitting smack dab in the middle of 2020 and 2018. Exurbia has exhibited small leftward movement relative to 2020 while rurals saw no such movement relative to 2020.
2022 Ratings:
House 28A: 67-31 Trump (’20), 59-36 Johnson, 64-28 Trump (’16)
House 28A Rating: Safe R
House 28B: 62-35 Trump (’20), 56-40 Johnson, 60-32 Trump (’16)
House 28B Rating: Safe R
Senate 28 Rating: Safe R
2022 Ratings:
HD28A Results: 63-32 Jensen, 64-29 Wilson, 68-32 Johnson (R)
HD28B Results: 60-37 Jensen, 61-33 Wilson, 62-38 Neu Bridley
SD28: 67-33 Koran (R)
District 29 (Old 29A and 29B):
Prediction:
The lion’s share of solidly Republican Wright County in the western exurbs, basically all of Wright County that isn’t part of the St. Michael-Albertville school district, with the lines largely unchanged from the old version of SD-29. Senator Bruce Anderson, and 29A Representative Joe McDonald have token DFL opponents in Chris Brazelton and Sherri Leyda, but old 28B incumbent Marion O’Niell is unopposed and is assured of her 6th term of office come election day.
What happened?
Not much movement politically relative to 2020, all Republicans won by the expected ~30 point margins.
2022 Ratings:
House 29A: 65-32 Trump (’20), 60-36 Johnson, 62-28 Trump (’16)
House 29A Rating: Safe R
House 29B: 62-35 Trump (’20), 56-39 Johnson, 61-31 Trump (’16)
House 29B Rating: Safe R
Senate 29 Rating: Safe R
2022 Results:
HD29A Results: 65-33 Jensen, 65-29 Wilson, 71-29 McDonald (R)
HD29B Results: 60-36 Jensen, 62-31 Wilson, O’Neill (R) Unopposed
SD29: 68-32 Anderson (R)
District 30 (Old 30A and 30B):
Prediction:
This seat takes in the edges of Wright, Sherburne and Anoka Counties, skirting the edge of Hennepin County, but not crossing Hennepin County (aside from the tiny split town of Hanover), with the lack of Hennepin County being key here. Current 30B Representative Eric Lucero had been a resident of Dayton Minnesota, in the northwest corner of Hennepin County, he had to move to St. Michael in order to run for Senate. This will be a little more comfortable for him, as northwest Hennepin County is very quickly starting to vote like the rest of Hennepin County, and Lucero is a hard-edge kind of guy and he’ll be a LOT more comfortable in this 61% Trump seat, than in Dayton’s 56% Biden SD-34. Lucero only has token Dem opposition in DFLer Diane Nguyen. In the St. Michael-Albertville based 30A, there will be a new State Rep here in the form of Albertville City Councilman Walter Hudson, who is better known for his previous brief stint on local AM talk radio as this seat is red enough that he shouldn’t have to worry much about his election against Democrat Sonja Buckmeier. In the Sherburne (and a little bit of Anoka) County based 30B, old 30A incumbent Paul Novotny (R) will have little difficulty beating his 2020 opponent Chad Hobot a second time, after winning 66-34 last round.
What happened?
Republicans swept, with the 2020 baseline being the clear predictor of results for all offices.
2022 Ratings:
House 30A: 61-36 Trump (’20), 60-37 Johnson, 62-29 Trump (’16)
House 30A Rating: Safe R
House 30B: 62-35 Trump (’20), 59-37 Johnson, 62-30 Trump (’16)
House 30B Rating: Safe R
Senate 30 Rating: Safe R
2022 Results:
HD30A Results: 60-36 Jensen, 63-31 Wilson, 63-37 Hudson (R)
HD30B Results: 60-37 Jensen, 62-33 Wilson, 66-34 Novotny (R)
SD30: 65-35 Lucero (R)
District 31 (New seat):
Prediction:
This seat is still based in northern Anoka County, but it is so far shifted inwards that it should functionally be considered a “new” seat, especially the 31A half. Senator Michelle Benson represents the old SD-31, but her house was put just across the border in the new SD-32, and she did not enter either race after she ended her 2022 gubernatorial campaign. With an open Senate seat, old 31A Rep Cal Bahr, perhaps the least loud of the right-wing splinter caucus members threw his hat in the ring and got the party’s endorsement and subsequently won his primary against political neophyte Maribella McDermid. Now he is slated to easily defeat 2020 HD-35B Dem nominee Jason Ruffalo, who lost 60-40 to Rep Peggy Scott that year. In 31A, which now is nearly coterminous with the suburbs of Ramsey and Andover Republicans have tapped local attorney Harry Niska who should have little difficulty defeating his Dem challenger Betsy O’Berry. In 31B the aforementioned Peggy Scott is running for another term in a vastly different looking district that includes very little of her old seat, but is still safely Republican for her against DFLer Bill Fisher in her newly-drawn Ham Lake and East Bethel based seat.
What happened?
The “new” seats sent Republicans to all 3 seats with margins in line with 2020’s baseline, with Peggy Scott being a notable overperformer, besting Jensen’s margin by 7 points.
2022 Ratings:
House 31A: 57-40 Trump (’20), 55-41 Johnson, 58-34 Trump (’16)
House 31A Rating: Safe R
House 31B: 65-33 Trump (’20), 61-35 Johnson, 63-20 Trump (’16)
House 31B Rating: Safe R
Senate 31 Rating: Safe R
2022 Results:
HD31A Results: 56-41 Jensen, 58-36 Wilson, 60-40 Niska (R)
HD31B Results: 63-34 Jensen, 64-29 Wilson, 68-32 Scott (R)
SD31: 64-36 Bahr (R)
District 32 (Old 37A and 37B):
Prediction:
This is mostly Blaine in central Anoka County, with a highly-suspiciously drawn tendril into Columbus township that really can’t be explained by anything other than intentionally trying to make it more Republican. Even with the odd tendril, this is kind of the successor seat to SD-37. Due to a very odd move by Jerry Newton (more on him in the SD-35 section), the senate seat is open and will be immensely completive in this suburban Trump/Walz seat won by less than 1% by each of them. Both parties are pulling out all the stops here with the DFL tapping Forest Lake School Board member Kate Luthner, and the GOP going with Spring Lake Part School Board member Michael Kreum, Based on current political climate and this being a politically balanced seat that is 50/50 Walz and 50/50 Biden, I give the narrowest of edges to the Republican in this race, but it is going to be decided by less than 1% either way. expect this one to be close. Nolan West, a punk kid who got fired as a GOP staffer after, among other things, tweeting “It’s lynching time!” after Obama won reelection a decade ago, has somehow managed to get elected twice by the skin of his teeth without any friends on Capitol Hill of either party. He got a gift in adding Columbus Township to the northern fringe of his seat, and he should win more comfortably this time around against Dem college student Ashton Ramsammy. In 32B, we have an incumbent in real danger following redistricting. Old 38A Republican Donald Raleigh (R) is running and had to quickly establish residence in this seat over the summer. The apartment hunt may well all be for naught, however, as in this is a 5-point Biden / 6-point Walz seat Dems have gone with local attorney Matt Norris, and are fully backing his campaign with Norris outraising Raleigh by a pretty significant margin; Raleigh is in trouble.
What happened?
As predicted, both HD32B and SD32 flipped in opposite directions. This suburban seat continues to inch ever so slightly to the left, going from Trump+516 votes to Walz+203 votes (Walz won by 26 votes in 2018). Kreun will remain a top Dem target for as long as he is in office given the competitiveness of the seat.
2022 Ratings:
House 32A: 52-45 Trump (’20), 51-45 Johnson, 53-39 Trump (’16)
House 32A Rating: Likely R
House 32B: 51-46 Biden, 51-45 Walz, 47-44 Trump (’16)
House 32B Rating: Lean D (flip D*)
Senate 32 Rating: Lean R (flip R*)
2022 Results:
HD32A Results: 51-46 Jensen, 53-41 Wilson, 57-43 West (R)
HD32B Results: 52-45 Walz, 49-45 Wilson, 51.12-48.79 Norris (D) (flip)
SD32: 53-47 Kreun (R) (flip)
District 33 (Old 39A and 39B):
Prediction:
Northern Washington County which is Forest Lake (33A) and Stillwater (33B) and a few sporadic cities in towns in there for population. This is quite similar to Karin Housley’s old SD-39, with some of the further out townships shed due to being overpopulated at the time of the census. Housley is best known nationally as being the losing GOP candidate against US Senator Tina Smith in 2018, and she is running for reelection again this November. Dems are challenging her with local psychologist Nancy McLean. Housley is a strong incumbent, and Dems have challenged her before, but she has held on before as well. This cycle though, Housley has not been able to fundraise for her campaign, and has completely burned through her old campaign war chest, so maybe she is feeling the heat. But until I see campaign insiders behaving differently, I don’t believe she is likely to lose her narrow Walz/Biden suburban seat. In the more Republican Forest Lake half, 16-year incumbent Bob Dettmer (R) is retiring. Running to succeed him is Patti Anderson. Patti Anderson, formerly known politically as Pat Anderson, and before that known as Pat Awada is an interesting candidate. Patti Anderson, then using her then-husband’s name of Awada served as mayor of Eagan Minnesota (which clear is on the other side of town from here in Dakota County), and actually won statewide election via plurality in Minnesota 20 years ago serving 1 term as Minnesota State Auditor, way back when Republicans were capable of such feats. This is Anderson’s 4(???)th attempt at a political comeback in the 2 decades since, losing the State Auditor’s election in 2006, the GOP primary for Governor in 2010, and then in 2018 lost the 38B (based in White Bear Lake, in Ramsey County). None of the old HD-38B is in the new 33A except the tiny hamlet of Delwood, which is where Anderson now lives. This might be a case of “4th time’s the charm” for her comeback bid, as this seat is still Republican enough that she is a clear favorite against Forest Lake City Councilwoman Hanna Valento (D), though Valento is seen as a rising star in her own right, so the margins here are important for the political future of both Anderson and Valento. In the more Democratic Stillwater-based HD-33B, incumbent DFLer Shelly Christensen retired after 2 terms, so Dems are running Josiah Hill, who was the losing nominee against Housley in 2020 after putting up a respectable 53-47 loss to the incumbent. Hill is a strong but not prohibitive favorite against anti-vaxx activist Mark Bishofsky, since Bishofsky defeated Republican Stillwater School Board member Tina Riehle in the primary. Riehl vs Hill would have significantly higher potential to be competitive.
What happened?
Surburbia continues to move left cycle over cycle, with Walz improving on his margin in the seat relative to 2020 POTUS and 2018 even though his statewide margin was lower in ’22 than 2018. Housley’s margins also continue to dwindle, winning by 5.6, down from 6.1 in 2020 and 22.8 in 2016. Housley is likely to be looking for another statewide race soon, as by the end of the decade this will be an unwinnable seat for her.
2022 Ratings:
House 33A: 52-45 Trump (’20), 51-45 Johnson, 52-39 Trump (’16)
House 33A Rating: Likely R
House 33B: 53-45 Biden, 52-44 Walz, 47-44 Clinton
House 33B Rating: Likely D
Senate 33 Rating: Lean R
2022 Results:
HD33A Results: 51-47 Jensen, 54-41 Wilson, 55-45 Anderson (R)
HD33B Results: 54-43 Walz, 49-46 Blaha, 54-46 Hill (D)
SD33: 53-47 Housley
District 34 (Old 36A and 36B):
Prediction:
Northern edge of Hennepin County, with 34A being Champlain/Dayton/Rogers and 34B being Brooklyn Park and a precinct across the river in Coon Rapids. The senate seat is a shrunk down successor of the old SD-36, shedding the vast majority of its Anoka County portion due to population growth in this ring of Hennepin County suburbia. Senator John Hoffman has represented this area for a decade, and will extend that another 4 years after he defeats Republican nurse Karen Attia in November. 34A is moving left at a rapid clip, going from Johnson +18 in 2014, Trump+13 in 2016, Johnson+7 in 2018, and Trump+3 in 2020, and that trend shows no signs of slowing and the inflection point of being D-leaning will be sometime in the first half of the 2020s. Dems are going with 2020 34A nominee Brian Raines, which is largely seen as a recruiting miss, as Raines did not do very well last cycle, relatively speaking. Republicans are tapping former Jeff Johnson staffer Danny Nadeau, who’s only electoral experience is losing the Hennepin County Commission seat formerly held by Johnson when Johnson stepped aside instead of lose due to the political shifts in the region. Still, HD-34A is redder than Hennepin County Commission District 7, and Nadeau should get his first electoral victory this fall, but his seat will be tough to hold for the GOP in short order as the political shifts continue as they have for the last decade. 34B is safely Democratic, and is represented by Speaker Melissa Hortman, who is seeking another term, and she will get it against her 2020 opponent Scott Simmons, likely matching her 61-39 victory that year.
What happened?
The leftward trends continues, with Walz carrying 34A by 22 votes, which means a whopping 18 points left in 8 years: crazy. Nadeau may be looking for an escape hatch, as his race was less than 7 points, so at this pace he will be out of a seat in the next 5 years.
2022 Ratings:
House 34A: 50-47 Trump (’20), 52-45 Johnson, 52-39 Trump (’16)
House 34A Rating: Likely R
House 34B: 62-35 Biden, 60-36 Walz, 55-37 Clinton
House 34B Rating: Safe D
Senate 34 Rating: Safe D
2022 Results:
HD33A Results: 48.66-48.56 Walz, 52-43 Wilson, 53-47 Nadeau (R)
HD33B Results: 63-34 Walz, 57-38 Blaha, 62-37 Hortman (D)
SD33: 55-45 Hoffman
District 35 (Old 35A and 35B):
Prediction:
This seat got a major makeover with it moving towards Minneapolis, shedding dark red Ramsey and solid red Andover in favor of blue Coon Rapids; the only thing that’s the same is purple Anoka, the biggest city in the district and home of Senator Jim Abeler (R). This moves Abeler into the substantially less comfortable position of being in a left-trending Biden+5 seat instead of a Trump+10 seat. It’s bizarre to think of Abeler as favored to lose as he has been in the legislature since I was in middle school over 20 years ago, but his seat really got nerfed, and he is in the fight for his political life; an uphill battle against DFLer Keri Rehrauer. Rehraur has not only outraised and campaigned circles around the significantly older Ron Paulist incumbent, but the state party has dumped tons of money saturating the entire broadcast TV and broadcast radio ads against Abeler, and all indications is Rehrauer is favored, perhaps by a decent margin based on political activity and behavior of those on the ground. The reconfiguration of the seat gives us a rare member-on-member general election as John Heinrich (old 35A) and Zach Stephenson (old 36A), both sophomores are pitted against one another in 35A. This is a highly contested race, and with Heinrich having slightly better fundraising, he may have the edge in this coin flip race. Meanwhile in 35B, we have a unique situation as SENATOR Jerry Newton is running for a demotion, after announcing his retirement initially, he is opting to run in the open HD-35B at age 85. Newton is a favorite against Republican newcomer Polly Matteson as Republicans have triaged this seat, but given his age nothing is 100% a given.
What happened?
The rare Republican money advantage wasn’t enough to counteract the leftward movement in suburbia in 35A, with Stephenson winning by a surprisingly large 5% margin against a fellow incumbent. Abeler was able to parlay his seniority into one final term, winning by 184 votes. It’s hard to see this seat going red again unless it’s a red wave sort of environment.
2022 Ratings:
House 35A: 51-47 Biden, 50-45 Walz, 48-43 Trump (’16)
House 35A Rating: Lean R (Member v Member)
House 35B: 51-46 Biden, 50-45 Walz, 48-42 Trump (’16)
House35B Rating: Likely D
Senate 35 Rating: Lean D (flip D)
2022 Results:
HD35A Results: 51-44 Walz, 46.42-45.51 Wilson, 52-47 Stephenson (D)
HD35B Results: 50-46 Walz, 48-44 Wilson, 50.64-49.29 Newton (D)
SD35: 50.22-49.68 Abeler (R)
District 36 (Old 38A and 38B):
Prediction:
This is southeastern Anoka County and northeastern Ramsey County. Roger Chamberlain has represented the predecessor seat here, the old SD38 since 2010. Chamberlain was a major 2020 target for Dems given the leftward political shift in this well-to-do suburban area, and redistricting certainly did not do him any favors as his old seat went to Biden by 1, while he won reelection by 4. This new seat went to Biden by 10, and the leftward suburban lurch continues under his feet: Chamberlain now finds himself as a major political underdog against teacher Heather Gustafson (D). Gustafson has outraised Chamberlain 2:1, and while the state DFL initially invested in TV and radio broadcast ads against Chamberlain, those ad buys were significantly reduced the week of October 31st, as Republicans triaged Chamberlain, all but sealing his fate to electoral defeat. On the House side, old 38A incumbent Donald Raleigh lives here, but is running next door in the Blaine based seat, leaving the Lino Lakes based seat vacant. The race for 36A kind of ended up being a recruiting dud for both parties given how marginal the seat is. GOP and DFL are running political neophytes with no real experience, but either Elliott Engen (R) or Susie Strom (D) will be sworn in come January. Engen seems to have taken to the campaign trail quite a bit better than Strom, so Engen is a slight but clear favorite to get a term in the state legislature. In the far bluer White Bear Lake half, incumbent Ami Wazlawik, a sophomore best known for defeating Patti Anderson in Anderson’s 2018 comeback attempt, is retiring after just 4 years in office. For this open seat, LGBT activist Brion Curran is a first-time candidate and will be a first time elected official come November after she defeats Republican businesswoman Heidi Gunderson. Gunderson, to her credit is running a good campaign, but a left trending Biden+17, Walz+15 suburban seat is simply too big of a row to hoe. I expect Gunderson will be making a political run for something else in the future.
What happened?
Senator Chamberlain (R) was on borrowed time, and his time came as the seat moved out from under him. The area continues to move left. Walz lost 36A by 1 in 2018 and won it by 3 in 2022. Engen (R) outperformed the top of the ticket narrowly, winning by just under 3, but is unlikely to face a comfortable reelection given the trajectory of the seat.
2022 Ratings:
House 36A: 50-48 Biden, 49-48 Johnson, 48-43 Trump (’16)
House 36A Rating: Lean R
House 36B: 57-40 Biden, 56-41 Walz, 50-41 Clinton
House 36B Rating: Safe D
House 36B Rating: Likely D (flip D)
Senate 36 Rating: Likely D (flip D)
2022 Results:
HD36A Results: 51-47 Walz, 51-44 Wilson, 51.39-48.57 Engen (R)
HD36B Results: 57-40 Walz, 51-43 Blaha, 53-46 Curran (D)
SD36: 53-47 Gustafson (D) (flip)
District 37 (Old 37A and 37B):
Prediction:
This is Maple Gove (37A & 37B), and the few remaining farm fields in western Hennepin County (37A). Maple Gove was not-so-long-ago the center of Republicanism in the state, but the rug has been pulled out from the GOP in this once-red bastion. One man who has seen this shift first hand is 28-year incumbent Warren Limmer (R). Limmer used to coast to reelection, but that has changed rapidly, being held to a 1.5% win in 2020 after defeating the same DFL opponent 60-40 just 4 years prior. While the western edge of this district changed shape a bit, the politics and population in both the old SD-34 and the new SD-37 is dominated by one city: maple Gove, and that city is the core and 90% of the population of both iterations. Limmer is in for a close match against Minnesota NAACP President Farhio Khalif, though Limmer, unlike some other suburban GOP incumbents has not been cut off, meaning Republicans still see a path to victory in this Biden+7 seat. Given Republicans are still pumping money here, and the DFL has not gone on TV against Limmer, I give Limmer a 51% chance of holding on for one last term. The tealeaves are clear here though, this seat is moving left, and fast. One of the only Republicans left in Hennepin County who has a better than coin-flip shot at victory this November is Representative Kristen Robbins in 37B, whose district includes the few remaining Republican precincts in the far western part of the county, and has not quite been fully drowned out by the Maple Grove portion of her district (though the trends to that direction is evident). Robbins draws 2020 Dem nominee for the old 33A Caitlin Cahill, who is not seen as an especially strong recruit, though clearly a cut above a random person, as she has been elected to the Maple Plain City Council. In 37B, which is fully contained within Maple Grove, incumbent Kristen Bahner (D) is going de win a 3rd term against USAF veteran John Bristol (R).
What happened?
Limmer survived with a relatively comfortable 10 point win due to DFL recruiting a weak candidate to face him. The Senate seat is now Walz+7 compared to Johnson+1 just 4 years earlier. Limmer is likely in his last term, either due to retirement or defeat by a better DFL recruit in 2026.
2022 Ratings:
House 37A: 50-48 Trump (’20), 55-43 Johnson, 52-39 Trump (’16)
House 37A Rating: Lean R
House 37B: 56-41 Biden, 53-44 Walz, 47-44 Clinton
House 37B Rating: Likely D
Senate 37 Rating: Lean R
2022 Results:
HD37A Results: 50-48 Jensen, 55-41 Wilson, 56-44 Robbins (R)
HD37B Results: 57-40 Walz, 59-36 Wilson, 56-44 Bahner (D)
SD37: 55-45 Limmer (R)
District 38 (Old 40A and 40B):
Prediction:
Parts of Brooklyn Park and all of Brooklyn Center, in dark blue suburban turf north of Minneapolis. The senate seat is interesting, as the DFL convention did not produce an endorsement. Brooklyn Park City Councilwoman Susan Pha went into the primary with the bulk of the institutional support with a resume a mile long, but she was denied the endorsement by political newcomer Huldah Hiltsey. Pha won the primary 61-38, in no small part because the local Hmong community tends to bloc vote, and there are a significant number of Hmong-Americans in Brooklyn Park who tend to bloc vote for members of the community. Pha will win handily in November against pothead party candidate Mary O’Connor and retired MMA fighter Brad Kohler (R). 20-year incumbent Representative Michael Nelson (D) is unopposed in 38A, while sophomore incumbent Samantha Vang has token Republican opposition in Robert Melvin.
What happened?
Nothing exciting. Dems win by consistent 30 to 40 point margins and have for years.
2022 Ratings:
House 38A: 68-30 Biden, 65-30 Walz, 63-30 Clinton
House 38A Rating: Safe D
House 38B: 72-26 Biden, 69-25 Walz, 66-26 Clinton
House 38B Rating: Safe D
Senate 38 Rating: Safe D
2022 Results:
HD38A Results: 66-30 Walz, 59-33 Blaha, Nelson (D) Unopposed
HD38B Results: 70-26 Walz, 63-28 Blaha, 73-27 Vang (D)
SD38: 58-39 Miller (R)
District 39 (Old 41A and 41B):
Prediction:
This is the tiny southern tail of Anoka County: Spring Lake Park, Fridley, Columbia Heights, St. Anthony and a tiny slice of New Brighton across the Ramsey County border for population. This seat is essentially unchanged from the old SD-41, moving only 2 precincts for population shifts. Freshman Senator Mary Kunesh (D) will win a second term against GOP opponent Pam Wolf. Erin Koegel will win a 4th term in 39A in a very different seat than her old 37A, after her house was added to this seat in the one precinct that changed in Spring Lake Park against Republican Rob Sylvester. In 39B, there was actually a double bunking, as the line that closely divided Connie Bernardy’s house (old 41A) and Sandra Feist (old 41B) no longer runs between their houses. They live 2 blocks apart; a strong golf swing could get from one house to the other. Bernardy had previously retired then unretired before, now she is retiring again to give the freshman Feist another term in office after a formality election against GOPer Mike Sharp.
What happened?
As expected all the Dems won easily. No real movement from the 2018 and 2020 baselines, as the big lurch left post 2016 has cemented.
2022 Ratings:
House 39A: 63-34 Biden, 62-33 Walz, 55-36 Clinton
House 39A Rating: Safe D
House 39B: 71-27 Biden, 68-29 Walz, 61-29 Clinton
House 39B Rating: Safe D
Senate 39 Rating: Safe D
2022 Results:
HD39A Results: 63-34 Walz, 56-36 Blaha, 63-37 Koegel (D)
HD39B Results: 70-26 Walz, 65-29 Blaha, 70-30 Feist
SD39: 66-33 Kunesh (D)
District 40 (Old 42A and 42B):
Prediction:
Northeastern Romsey County, primarily Moundsview, Shorview, Roseville and New Brighton. Jason Isaacson (D-old 42) and John Marty (D-old 66) were double bunked here. Isaacson yielded to the more tenured Marty, though this is Marty’s first time representing a primarily suburban seat, as he lives on the border of Roseville and St. Paul, and has long been drawn into a St. Paul based seat, going all the way back to the mid-80s. The House seats are less interesting, as Representatives Kelly Moller and Jamie Becker-Finn (both D) get similar seats to their old ones and will win against Republican challengers Ben Schwanke and Allen Shen respectively.
What happened?
Nothing super interesting. The steady D trend in this suburban district continues, though slower than the outer ring suburbs’ active realignment (The realignment here happened post-2016).
2022 Ratings:
House 40A: 61-36 Biden, 58-39 Walz, 52-38 Clinton
House 40A Rating: Safe D
House 40B: 67-30 Biden, 64-33 Walz, 59-31 Clinton
House 40B Rating: Safe D
Senate 40 Rating: Safe D
2022 Results:
HD40A Results: 62-35 Walz, 56-39 Blaha, 62-38 Moller (D)
HD40B Results: 68-29 Walz, 63-32 Blaha, 68-32 Becker-Finn (D)
SD40: 65-35 Marty (D)
District 41 (Old 54A and 54B):
Prediction:
Southeastern Washington County along the border with Wisconsin, with crossing the Dakota County border to take in Hastings. This is kind of the random parts left over of Washington County after the cities like Maplewood Stillwater and Forest Lake are all kept whole in other seats. It’s the successor seat to the old SD-54, but with different bits included or excluded. It is quite marginal politically going for both Walz and Biden narrowly after going narrowly for Trump in 2016. Incumbent SD-54 Senator Karla Bigham was drawn out of her seat and didn’t want to move, so she is running for Washington County Commissioner instead leaving this marginal seat open. Dems are looking to local lawyer Judy Seeberger, while Republicans have a contested primary. Tony Jurgens is the incumbent State Rep for the old 54B and was seen as a marquee recruit, however he LOST the endorsement from a conservative challenger Tom Dippel. Jurgens did not take this lying down and filed for the primary anyways. Local Republicans were in the awkward position of wanting Jurgens to win, but being obligated to support Dippel officially, as Dippel would be a significantly weaker candidate in this Biden/Walz won seat. Ultimately Dippel prevailed, dealing a pretty significant blow to the GOP’s prospects of retaining the Senate and picking up this seat they’ve coveted for years. Republicans have not triaged Dippel, though Democrats have dumped a lot more money into this seat than Republicans, and the MNGOP has no answer for DFL ability to afford broadcast advertisement in key state legislative elections, such as this one. It’s going to be a close election, but the feeling is that Seeberger is a slight favorite. In the northern half (41A), 54A incumbent was drawn out of his seat as well, and is also running for Washington County Commission (against Bigham), setting up a hell of a County Commission level election with a sitting State Senator facing a sitting State Representative. Dems are running teacher Pat Driscoll while Republicans are running police officer Mark Wiens. Weins has not done much in terms of campaigning, which is odd for a seat that is hypothetically competitive, but that shows the edge Driscoll has down the stretch. Jurgens left behind his current House seat to run for Senate, so we have another open seat in 41B. Republicans have tapped conservative veteran Shane Hudella, and the DFL is going with Hastings City Councilwoman Tina Folch. Folch is the more seasoned politician, but Hudella has been running a good campaign as well. Given that it’s a couple points to the right of 41A, and the Hudella has some campaign energy in this GOP-held seat, I give him the slightest edge.
What happened?
Lots of excitement, and lots of tight races. This area moved ever so slightly left from 2018 and 2020 but is immensely competitive. No one won by more than 2 points in any of the seats. Expect this to be host to LOTS of competitive seats in the coming years. As an aside, Senator Karla Bigham defeated State Representative Keith Franke for the Washington County Commissioner seat 51-48.
2022 Ratings:
House 41A: 51-47 Biden, 49-48 Walz, 48-44 Trump (’16)
House 41A Rating: Lean D
House 41B: 49-48 Biden, 50-45 Walz, 48-43 Trump (’16)
House 41B Rating: Lean R
Senate 41 Rating: Lean D
2022 Results:
HD41A Results: 51-46 Walz, 50-46 Wilson, 50.24-49.69 Wiens (R)
HD41B Results: 50-47 Walz, 50-44 Wilson, 51.05-48.87 Hudella (R)
SD41: 50.33-49.58 Seeberger (D)
District 42 (Old 44A and 44B):
Prediction:
This is Plymouth, except for 2 precincts in the southeastern corner of the district. 42A is western Plymouth, and 42B is eastern Plymouth. Unfortunately for freshman Senator Ann Johnson-Stewart ( D old SD44), she lives in that southeastern corner part of the city and was drawn out of her seat (more on her later in SD45). For the open seat Dems went with the woman who held long-time incumbent Warren Limmer (covered above in SD-37) to a 1.5% win in 2020: Bonnie Westlin. The new SD-42 is a fair bit bluer than SD-37 so she should waltz into office with little trouble after defeating local Republican businessman Paul Hillen in November. Dem Plymouth City Councilman Ned Carroll will win the 42A House seat after it was drawn without an incumbent living there, and he will easily defeat local Republican party official Kathy Burkett. 42B has incumbent Ginny Klevorn, who will win a 4th term after she beats Jackie Schroeder, an anti-vaxxer activist who had 15 minutes of fame when she became the poster child for “horse dewormer cures covid” movement when she took the issue to court. Interestingly, anti-vaxxers have pumped a lot of money into Schroeder’s campaign, but it’s Biden+28, well outside the realm of possibility even in the reddest of waves.
What happened?
Nothing unexpected: a clean DFL sweep. The 2022 Toplines matched the 2020 Toplines, meaning the titanic shift from 2018 to 2020 has stuck.
2022 Ratings:
House 42A: 61-37 Biden, 55-43 Walz, 52-39 Clinton
House 42A Rating: Safe D
House 42B: 63-35 Biden, 57-40 Walz, 54-37 Clinton
House 42B Rating: Safe D
Senate 42 Rating: Safe D
2022 Results:
HD42A Results: 61-37 Walz, 54-43 Blaha, 58-42 Carroll (D)
HD42B Results: 63-35 Walz, 56-40 Blaha, 61-39 Klevorn (D)
SD42: 58-42 Westlin (D)
District 43 (Old 45A and 45B):
Prediction:
New Hope and Golden Valley, the successor district to the old SD-45. Ann Rest (D) has represented this seat in the Senate since the 2000 elections, and did not draw a Republican challenger, and will win handily against the random pothead party challenger against her. The House seats have two unopposed Democrats: Cedrick Frazier in 43A, and Mike Freiberg in 43B. Freiberg was officially double bunked, but it didn’t matter as old 46A incumbent Ryan Winkler (D) long ago announced he was going to run for Hennepin County Attorney (for which Winkler lost the nomination).
What happened?
There weren’t any Republicans on the ballot for any of the State Legislature races, so there isn’t much data there. But at the top-line, it looks like the area is continuing it’s 2ish points left cycle-over cycle that after the giant lurch left in 2018.
2022 Ratings:
House 43A: 66-31 Biden, 63-32 Walz, 58-32 Clinton
House 43A Rating: Safe D
House 43B: 73-24 Biden, 70-26 Walz, 66-26 Clinton
House 43B Rating: Safe D
Senate 43 Rating: Safe D
2022 Results:
HD43A Results: 68-29 Walz, 61-32 Blaha, Frazier (D) Unopposed
HD43B Results: 75-22 Walz, 59-36 Wilson, Freiberg (D) Unopposed
SD43: 77-22 Rest (D)
District 44 (Old 43A and 43B):
Prediction:
East central Ramsey County just north of St. Paul with a small chunk of western Washington County, namely Oakdale, added for population. This is closely related to the old SD-43, just shrink inwards towards St. Paul due to population growth. In perhaps the single biggest political downgrade move for those drawn out of their seats is Senator Chuck Wiger, who has been a State Senator since 1996 is running for Maplewood city council, as his home was drawn out of his seat. FWIW, if there was an award for gerrymandered cities in Minnesota, Maplewood is one of 3 possible candidates, the other 2 being St. Cloud, and the abomination that is the Crystal-New Hope border. Regardless, this DFL primary has turned a bit nasty. Old 53A State Rep Tou Xiong (D) won the party’s endorsement, but 2 challengers that vied for the nomination but were defeated in the primar:, Wiger’s Chief of Staff and local school board member Nancy Livingston, and attorney Leslie Lienemann. Xiong’s political base is largely outside of the seat in neighboring SD-47, but he was able to win the primary 48-27-26. Xiong will be a Senator after beating Republican Paul Babin in November. The House side is much less interesting as long-term incumbent DFLers Peter Fischer (44A) and Leon Lillie (44B) will cruise to reelection against Republican candidates Alex Pickney and William Johnson respectively. In a rare Libertarian Party appearance, 44B has Libertarian Party member TJ Hawthorne who petitioned his way onto the ballot.
What happened?
Nothing unexpected, with the Dems safely sweeping the seats, and top of the ticket matching the 2018 & 2020 baselines.
2022 Ratings:
House 44A: 63-35 Biden, 62-34 Walz, 57-35 Clinton
House 44A Rating: Safe D
House 44B: 58-40 Biden, 58-36 Walz, 51-40 Clinton
House 44B Rating: Safe D
Senate 44 Rating: Safe D
2022 Results:
HD44A Results: 62-34 Walz, 55-37 Blaha, 63-37 Fischer (D)
HD44B Results: 58-38 Walz, 52-41 Blaha, 57-39 Lillie (D)
SD44: 60-40 Xiong (D)
District 45 (Old 33A and 33B):
Prediction:
This is essentially the city of Minnetonka (45B) and Lake Minnetonka (45A). This district is INSANELY wealthy, and has the unique distinction of not only double bunking two sitting Senators, but also neither one of them will appear on the ballot. Dave Osmek (R) was scared into retirement after his old seat was redrawn to be unwinnable for him or any Republican, while Ann Stewart-Johnson was drawn into the corner of this seat when her old seat was reconfigured, and ran for the nomination. However State Rep Kelly Morrison, who had the territorial advantage in the district came out on top and Stewart-Johnson withdrew instead of going to a primary with Morrison. Morrison is as good as Senator-elect at this point as she will handily defeat Republican realtor Kathleen Fowke. 45A, a full 30 points to the right of 45B is going to be an interesting race. Republicans are running former Tonka Bay City Councilman Andrew Myers. Tonka Bay is one of many micro-cities that make up the various peninsulas, bays and shore of Lake Minnetonka; Tonka Bay has a population of 1400 for context. Sophomore incumbent Jerry Hertaus (R) opted not to run for reelection after he was verbally distraught at the new district’s boundaries, as this seat moved significantly to the left after being heavily Republican in the former decade’s iteration. Even though it only moved to Biden+1, far less blue than other seats where Republicans filed for reelection. Dems are going with local economist Lauren Bresnahan, a former CBO economist. Myers was initially seen as a strong get, but Bresnahan as absolutely obliterated Councilman Myers (and most everyone else) in fundraising knocking on doors, and campaign apparatus, outraising all outer House candidates in the entire state, and the vast majority of Senate candidates in hotly contested elections. Bresnahan is a beast, and my projections on this seat have moved, and I think she wins now. To my knowledge, Lake Minnetonka has never had Democrats controlling the House and Senate seats along the entire shore, certainly not in the last 40 years, and it may have never happened in state history as that area was among the most Republican in the state throughout the 20th century. 45B is a lot less interesting as DFL incumbent Patty Acomb is going to flatten former Wayzata City Councilwoman Lorie Cousineau in her Biden+30 seat.
What happened?
2020 baselines held here in 2022, cementing the lurch left from 2018. Morrison easily flipped the senate seat for Dems, while Myers managed to hold 45A for Republicans in this Walz+1 seat. Expect this House seat to be competitive throughout the decade. Lots of money here.
2022 Ratings:
House 45A: 49-48 Biden, 52-45 Johnson, 49-42 Trump (’16)
House 45A Rating: Lean D (flip D)
House 45B: 64-34 Biden, 59-39 Walz, 56-36 Clinton
House 45B Rating: Safe D
Senate 45 Rating: Safe D (flip D)
2022 Results:
HD45A Results: 49.49-48.10 Walz, 52-43 Wilson, 53-47 Myers (R)
HD45B Results: 64-34 Walz, 58-39 Blaha, 62-38 Acomb (D)
SD45: 56-44 Morrison (D) (flip)
District 46 (Old 46A and 46B):
Prediction:
The epicenter of left-wing Hennepin County suburbia, with St. Louis Park, Hopkins and half of Edina making up the entirety of this seat. One only need look at candidate filings to see how little Republicans care about this area: 3 seats, ZERO Republicans. Senator Ron Latz and Representative Cheryl Youakim soon to be joined by current St. Louis Park City Councilman Larry Craft. Latz and Senator Melissa Lopez Franzen (D) were double bunked here, but Lopez Franzen deferred to Latz and announced her retirement shortly after the new maps were drawn.
What happened?
Much like SD43 directly to the to the north, no Republicans bothered to run for any of these seats at all, so the legislative data isn’t of use. Top of the ticket matched 2020 baselines of ~3:1 D:R.
2022 Ratings:
House 46A: 76-22 Biden, 73-23 Walz, 69-22 Clinton
House 46B Rating: Safe D
House 46B: 71-27 Biden, 66-31 Walz, 62-29 Clinton
House 46B Rating: Safe D
Senate 46 Rating: Safe D
2022 Results:
HD46A Results: 77-21 Walz, 71-24 Blaha, Kraft (D) Unopposed
HD46B Results: 70-27 Walz, 64-32 Blaha, Youakim (D) Unopposed
SD46: Latz (D) Unopposed
District 47 (Old 53A and 53B):
Prediction:
This is essentially Woodbury in southwest Washington County, and is nearly identical to the old SD-53. In spite of how little this seat changed, there are no incumbents running. Senator Susan Kent (D), the ringleader of the 2020 coup against Tom Bakk announced she is retiring to return to the private sector. Representative Tou Xiong (D) got put into the neighboring district and is running for Senate there, and Octogenarian Steve Sandell (D) is retiring after his sophomore term in office. In the Senate side there is a heavy Air Force presence, as Colonel Dwight Dorau (ret.) is facing Lieutenant Colonel Nicole Mitchell (USAFR). Given the seat’s lean, Mitchell will almost surely win, but still a neat little tidbit about the candidates’ similar backgrounds. To her credit, Mitchell has run a competent campaign, and she likely will be running for something else in the near future. In 47A, Dems are running union official Amanda Hemmingsen-Jaeger while Republicans are running local businessman Bob Lawrence. Local activist Ethan Cha, a refuge from Laos is the D nominee in 47B, while Republicans got a solid recruit in former State Rep Kelly Fenton who was swept in on the 2014 red wave, and swept out in the 2018 blue wave. Though this suburban area has moved quite a bit leftwards in the last 8 years since Fenton’s win. Cha has turn into an absolute dud of a candidate, while Fenton has run a strong campaign. If there exists a double-digit Biden and Walz seat that could flip for a 1 term rental, this is the one. I don’t see it as overly likely, as Biden+18 is an immense hill to climb for any Republican towards the bottom of the ticket.
What happened?
Baselined from 2020, the top of the ticket stayed 100% steady. Fenton turned out to be a strong candidate recruit for Republicans, but it simply wasn’t enough to win in a Biden+18 and Walz+18 seat, though she did overperform the top of the ticket by a whopping 12 points.
2022 Ratings:
House 47A: 62-36 Biden, 59-38 Walz, 54-37 Clinton
House 47A Rating: Safe D
House 47B: 58-40 Biden, 54-44 Walz, 50-42 Clinton
House 47B Rating: Lean D
Senate 47 Rating: Likely D
2022 Results:
HD47A Results: 62-35 Walz, 57-38 Blaha, 60-40 Hemmingsen-Jaeger (D)
HD47B Results: 58-40 Walz, 52-45 Blaha, 53-47 Cha (D)
SD47: 59-41 Mitchell (D)
District 48 (Old 47A and 47B):
Prediction:
This district takes up the lion’s share of Carver County. Due to rapid growth in Carver County over the last decade, the old SD-47 had to shrink massively, and it did so by shedding chunks of the rural portions of the district, moving it WELL to the left of its old configuration, and as the area has grown, it’s also been bluing; Dems seem this as fertile ground in 2022 and beyond after having punted on everything involving Carver County for the last century or so. Senator Julie Coleman suddenly finds herself in a Biden won seat after having previously won a Turmp+7 seat for the first time in 2020. Coleman is the slight favorite here against Dem psychologist Dan Kessler, who dispatched a trivial primary challenger in August. Kessler has run a fantastic campaign, and while Coleman is no slouch on the campaign trail, this seat is changing, and it’s changing fast. Coleman likely won’t ever have an easy reelection moving forward should she win this year. In the far more conservative half, incumbent Jim Nash (R) is in for a comfortable reelection in 48A against Cologne (pop 2075) City Councilman Nathan Kells. In the suddenly Biden+11 48B, incumbent Greg Boe (R) is in a tough situation. To his credit, Boe is going went into the general election instead of turning tail and looking for the exit like most Republicans drawn into Biden double digit seats in the Twin Cities, but he is a heavy underdog to Chanhassen (pop 26,037) City Councilwoman Lucy Rehm (D). Rehm has run a strong campaign, outraised the incumbent over 2:1, and the Republican state party is not spending any of its precious resources here, so this seat is more likely than not to flip red to blue.
What happened?
The toplines match 2020, and 48B flipped as predicted. Coleman proved to have a better than expected margin, winning by 8% in a Senate seat won by Jenson by 56 votes.
2022 Ratings:
House 48A: 53-44 Trump (’20), 54-42 Johnson, 54-36 Trump (’16)
House 48A Rating: Safe R
House 48B: 54-43 Biden, 49-48 Walz, 46-45 Clinton
House 48B Rating: Lean D (flip D)
Senate 48 Rating: Lean R
2022 Results:
HD48A Results: 53-44 Jensen, 56-39 Wilson, 60-40 Nash (R)
HD48B Results: 54-44 Walz, 48.73-47.06 Wilson, 50.97-48.97 Rehm (D) (flip)
SD48: 54-46 Coleman (R)
District 49 (Old 48A and 48B):
Prediction:
Just across the Carver County boarder from 48, this is a compact seat in southwestern Hennepin County, taking in all of Eden Prairie and southern Minnetonka. Once Republican turf and home to former Congressman Erik Paulsen, those days seem like a distant memory at this point. Like some outstate seats, this district doesn’t have much noteworthy going on with the D incumbents all running. Senator Steve Cwodzinksi and Representatives Laurie Pryor and Carlie Kotyza-Witthuhn will all easily defeat their Republican opponents Marla Helseth, Ryan Chase and Thomas Knecht respectively.
What happened?
The 2020 baselines held almost exactly, cementing the shift from 2018. Dem incumbents all get another term.
2022 Ratings:
House 49A: 64-34 Biden, 59-38 Walz, 55-36 Clinton
House 49A Rating: Safe D
House 49B: 61-36 Biden, 55-42 Walz, 52-39 Clinton
House 49B Rating: Safe D
Senate 49 Rating: Safe D
2022 Results:
HD49A Results: 64-33 Walz, 58-38 Blaha, 63-37 Pryor (D)
HD49B Results: 62-36 Walz, 55-42 Blaha, 58-42 Kotyza-Witthuhn (D)
SD49: 62-38 Cwodzinski (D)
District 50 (Old 49A and 49B):
Prediction:
This is western Bloomington (50B) and the half of Edina not in SD46 (50A). While very similar to the old SD-49, it does not include Melissa Lopez Franzen (D)’s house, so she is retiring instead of moving or primarying a fellow Dem. Someone who IS carpetbagging in is former State Rep Alice Mann, who represented a Burnsville based House seat for 1 term from 2018-2020. Mann, a medical doctor, has moved to Edina and is running for this Senate seat, and she is likely to win it against GOP realtor Doug Fulton. Fulton, to his credit, has done a remarkable amount of money for a Biden+35 seat, roughly as blue as St. Paul’s 4th Congressional District. So while Fulton may be auditioning for a bigger campaign down the road, his money isn’t going to help him in November 2022. Representative Heather Edelson is going to defeat her GOP opponent Sami Cisman, who is not campaigning nor raising money, merely a name on a ballot. 50B is another matter entirely. It’s safely Dem, but two Dem Reps were double bunked here, and no endorsement was given, so it’s an incumbent-incumbent primary. Andrew Carlson (Old 50B) and Steve Elkins (Old 49B) faced off in an endorsement-less primary in August, with Elkins prevailing 61-39, largely due to him having previously represented a larger chunk of the district from the old configuration. Elkins is safe in his general election campaign against Republican challenger Beth Beebe.
What happened?
The 2020 baselines once again were matched almost exactly, cementing in the leftward shifts since 2018.
2022 Ratings:
House 50A: 69-30 Biden, 63-35 Walz, 61-31 Clinton
House 50A Rating: Safe D
House 50B: 64-34 Biden, 59-38 Walz, 55-36 Clinton
House 50B Rating: Safe D
Senate 50 Rating: Safe D
2022 Results:
HD50A Results: 68-30 Walz, 62-35 Blaha, 69-31 Edelson (D)
HD50B Results: 64-34 Walz, 58-37 Blaha, 63-37 Elkins (D)
SD50: 63-37 Mann (D)
District 51 (Old 50A and 50B):
Prediction:
Richfield (51A) and eastern Bloomington (51B). This district is similar to the current SD-50, but shrunk in towards Minneapolis due to population growth both here and in Minneapolis. Politically this is slightly less affluent version of SD-50 next door. Senator Melissa Halvorson Wiklund (D) will extend her 10-year tenure by defeated Republican opponent Frank Pafko. Representative Mike Howard (D) will get a 3rd term after he defeats Ryan Wiskerchen (R) in 51A. 51B is currently vacant, as Andrew Carlson’s home was drawn in the neighboring district. Bloomington City Councilman Nathan Coulter will cruise into St. Paul after he defeats former State Rep Chad Anderson (R), who won a flukey special election 52-48 in December 2015 before being beaten in a rematch in November 2016. He also was the nominee against Carlson in 2018, losing 61-39, as Bloomington shifter further and further left.
What happened?
Everything went as expected in the Safe D seat, with topline margins right in line with 2020 and left of 2018.
2022 Ratings:
House 51A: 73-24 Biden, 71-24 Walz, 66-25 Clinton
House 51A Rating: Safe D
House 51B: 64-34 Biden, 62-34 Walz, 56-35 Clinton
House 51B Rating: Safe D
Senate 51 Rating: Safe D
2022 Results:
HD51A Results: 74-23 Walz, 68-28 Blaha, 74-26 Howard (D)
HD51B Results: 63-33, 59-36 Wilson, 62-38 Coulter (D)
SD51: 70-30 Halvarson-Wiklund (D)
District 52 (Old 51A and 51B):
Prediction:
This is essentially Eagan and the smaller Mendota Heights in northern Dakota County, roughly analogous to the old SD51. Senator Jim Carlson (D) is safe for reelection against Republican Stephen Lowell. On the House side, both Sandra Masin (D-old 51A) Liz Reyer (D-old 51B) were double bunked in 52A. Despite Masin having the territory and seniority advantage in the endorsement-less primary, Liz Reyer won the primary 61-39. Reyer is now free to go defeat Republican Fern Smith in the general. In a district that’s largely new to the person running here, incumbent State Rep Ruth Richardson (D-old 52B) was drawn into the Eagan-centric seat, but she is safe for reelection against Cynthia Lonnquist (R).
What happened?
Following publishing of the final prediction in November 2022, I was contacted by a member of the Reyer campaign to correct the fact that had errantly stated the primary was endorsement-less, when in fact Reyer had received the party’s endorsement in advance of the primary. Apologies to Liz Reyer and her campaign, and I thank them for the correction. The elections all went as expected and in line with 2020 baselines.
2022 Ratings:
House 52A: 62-35 Biden, 59-37 Walz, 53-37 Clinton
House 52A Rating: Safe D
House 52B: 63-34 Biden, 59-38 Walz, 54-36 Clinton
House 52B Rating: Safe D
Senate 52 Rating: Safe D
2022 Results:
HD52A Results: 63-35 Walz, 57-38 Blaha, 62-38 Reyer (D)
HD52B Results: 64-34 Walz, 58-38 Blaha, 62-38 Richardson (D)
SD52: 62-37 Carlson (D)
District 53 (Old 52A and 52B):
Prediction:
Directly to the east of 52 lies 53, which contains the most of the rest of northern Dakota County including Inver Grove Heights and South St. Paul (a suburb, not a neighborhood of St. Paul). This is the successor district to the old SD52. Senator Matt Klein (D) is safe for reelection against Republican Chris Rausch, as is Representative Rick Hansen (D) in 53B, though the MNGOP is propping up a random pothead party campaign in hopes they can snipe Hansen, which they’ve tried several times before in redder versions of this district over the 18 years he’s been in office. Republican Steven Swoboda is not going to defeat Hansen regardless. In 53A, with Richardson being drawn into a neighboring district, there will be a new Dem elected to the House from northern Dakota County, and that Dem is Mary Frances Clardy, a local teacher. Republicans are also propping up a pothead party candidate here, but much like in 53B, it’s meaningless and Republican Todd Kruse is DOA against Clardy.
What happened?
As with many suburban districts, the 2018/2020 baseline held up in these safely D seats.
2022 Ratings:
House 53A: 59-39 Biden, 56-40 Walz, 52-40 Clinton
House 53A Rating: Safe D
House 53B: 56-41 Biden, 57-37 Walz, 49-41 Clinton
House 53B Rating: Safe D
Senate 53 Rating: Safe D
2022 Results:
HD53A Results: 59-39 Walz, 53-42 Blaha, 55-41 Clardy (D)
HD53B Results: 57-39, 51-41 Blaha, 54-39 Hansen (D)
SD53: 58-42 Klien (D)
District 54 (Old 55A and 55B):
Prediction:
The majority of Scott County, anchored by Shakopee (54A) and Prior Lake (54B), the successor district to SD55, just greatly shrunk in size due to explosive growth. In the Senate seat, incumbent Senator Eric Pratt (R) lost out on the endorsement to a challenger from the right: nurse Natalie Barnes. Pratt prevailed in the primary 54-46. Pratt will easily defeat Dem Some Dude Alicia Donahue, who was an also-ran in the 2018 MN-3 primary that was won by now-Congressman Dean Phillips. 54A is where all juicy drama is happening. Shakopee has exploded in growth the last decade, moving left in the process, and with the explosion in growth, has shed basically all of the red non-Shakopee territory it used to have, moving 2 points to the left in the process. The election here could have its own diary, but this story starts with 3 men who have all held this office in recent years. Current Rep Erik Mortensen was the singular Republican officeholder that won based on Republicans propping up pothead candidates in select race. The State GOP quickly regretted the decision to go to bat for Mortensen in their failed attempt to retake control of the lower chamber. He was first drummed out of the main House GOP caucus for being an absolute schmuck, and then drummed out of the splinter right-wing caucus for being a schmuck and too right-wing even for them. Mortensen has no friends, no committee assignments, no power, and has basically declared war on the entire Republican Party. Mortensen faced a primary from the left from former State Rep Bob Loonan, (2014-2018) a conservative in his own right, and those two men absolutely HATE each other. Mortensen won the primary, and Loonan refused to endorse Mortensen, so Mortensen sued Loonan after the primary for a typo on Loonan’s primary campaign literature (not kidding). For what it’s worth, Mortensen won the whopping 1500 judgement against Loonan in court, which was 100% about Loonan and Mortensen hating each other and 0% about the 1500 dollars. Former Rep Brad Tabke (2018-2020) is getting his rubber match in November after the two split 2018 and 2020 elections in the older redder version of the seat. The GOP is propping up a pothead party candidate to try and salvage this seat, but it likely isn’t enough as Loonan has anti-endorsed Mortensen, and while coming just shy of endorsing Tabke, it’s clear that Loonan would rather seen Mortensen lose than anything else. That’s likely too much in a Biden+8 left-trending seat, even in 2022. 54B is far more boring as local high school principal Ben Bakeberg is going to be the next Republican House member after he defeats Dem Some Dude Brendan Van Alstyne.
What happened?
Mortensen finally wore out his welcome with the electorate and suffered the largest loss of any incumbent in the state, being defeated by Brad Takbe with a 9-point margin. The district shedding rurals certainly didn’t help him, nor did Shakopee continuing it’s pretty rapid leftward march. The Prior Lake side was much less eventful, with Blakeberg and Pratt winning easily and Walz/Jensen matching the Biden/Trump margin in 2022.
2022 Ratings:
House 54A: 53-45 Biden, 50-45 Walz, 47-44 Trump (’16)
House 54A Rating: Lean D (flip D)
House 54B: 55-43 Trump (’20), 55-42 Johnson, 56-35 Trump (’16)
House 54B Rating: Safe R
Senate 54 Rating: Safe R
2022 Results:
HD54A Results: 53-44 Walz, 47.31-46.75 Wilson, 52-43 Tabke (D) (flip)
HD54B Results: 54-43 Jensen, 58-37 Wilson, 61-39 Bakeberg (R)
SD54: 57-43 Pratt (R)
District 55 (Old 56A and 56B):
Prediction:
Next door in Savage (55A) and Burnsville (55B), along the western edge of Dakota County, we have a far more boring set of elections in the successor district to the old SD56. Dem Senator Lindsey Port is running against and will defeat Republican Pam Myhra. Myhra has been a victim of changing tides in the south metro, and finds herself a candidate who can’t find an office she can win, though not for lack of trying. After her last reelection effort in 2012, she ran as Marty Seifert’s LG nominee finishing 3rd in the GOP primary in 2014, She ran for MN-2 in the GOP primary to replace John Kline in 2018 but withdrew before the primary was won by Jason Lewis, she then was the losing Republican nominee against Julie Blaha in the State Auditor election in 2018, and in 2020 she lost the election to reclaim her old State House seat as the politics of the area shifted under her feet. Now she is trying to defeat Senator Port in a newly drawn Biden+17 seat, so one has to wonder if she finally hangs it up this time which will be her 5th loss in a row. Freshman DFL State Rep Jess Hanson is a strong favorite against Slovakian immigrant Gabriela Kroetch (R), and fellow freshman DFLer Kaela Berg will get a sophomore term against former St. Paul staffer / attorney Van Holston (R).
What happened?
With 4 losses in a row, Pam Myhra is running out of offices to run for in Dakota County. The area she used to represent has become completely unwinnable for her and her Party. If she wants to reenter politics successfully, she may need to take a page out of Patti Anderson’s playbook and relocate to a completely different area.
2022 Ratings:
House 55A: 55-43 Biden, 52-45 Walz, 47-44 Clinton
House 55B Rating: Likely D
House 55B: 60-38 Biden, 57-39 Walz, 51-40 Clinton
House 55B Rating: Safe D
Senate 55 Rating: Safe D
2022 Results:
HD55A Results: 54-43 Walz, 49-46 Blaha, 53-47 Hansen (D)
HD55B Results: 59-38 Walz, 53-41 Blaha, 58-42 Berg (D)
SD55: 55-45 Port (D)
District 56 (Old 57A and 57B):
Prediction:
Apple Valley (56A and 56B) and Rosemount (56B) in central Dakota County. This is a more compact version of the old SD57 that shrunk in size due to population growth. Like much of Dakota County, this used to be Republican territory, but that has shifted significantly over the last decade. The Senate seat is open due to the retirement of Greg Clausen (D) last December before the new lines were drawn. Republicans have a chosen pastor Jim Bean III, while Dems ad a messier path to November. The party endorsed State Senate staffer Justin Emmerich, but former State Representative Erin Maye Quade, who lost the nomination to Emmerich ran in the primary. Quade left a bad taste in the mouth of a lot of party insiders due to her role in the near collapse of the caucus-convention system in 2018 as she jumped ship from her House seat for a failed suicide LG run as Erin Murphy’s 2nd that nearly led Dems to not have a nominee in what should have been a safely Dem seat. Quade ended up prevailing in the primary 65-35, so her return to St. Paul is assured, as she will handily defeat Bean. Dems have incumbents in both house seats, and Robert Bierman and John Huot have clear paths to reelection against Republicans Joe Landru and Joe Canlon respectively.
What happened?
Nothing noteworthy. 2020 baselines held up, cementing the leftward movement from 2018.
2022 Ratings:
House 56A: 60-37 Biden, 57-39 Walz, 51-40 Clinton
House 56A Rating: Safe D
House 56B: 56-42 Biden, 54-43 Walz, 48-43 Clinton
House 56B Rating: Safe D
Senate 56 Rating: Safe D
2022 Results:
HD56A Results: 61-37 Walz, 55-40 Blaha, 60-40 Bierman (D)
HD56B Results: 57-41 Walz, 58-38 Blaha, 56-44 Huot (D)
SD56: 57-43 Quade (D)
District 57 (Old 58A and 58B):
Prediction:
This is Lakeville (57A, 57B) and rural eastern Scott County (57A). Freshman Senator Zach Duckworth got a boost in redistricting with the addition of the rural areas to his seat, and he is secure for reelection, even as the populated Lakeville portion of the seat moves leftwards. Representative Jon Koznick is also pleased with his 57% Trump seat and is comfortable for a blowout reelection against Dem Greg Henningsen. HD57B is entirely within the city of Lakeville, quite marginal and moving leftwards, and most importantly: open. Republicans got retired police officer Jeff Witte as a nominee, but Witte doesn’t have a website and doesn’t appear to be actively campaigning. Dems have tapped local teacher Erin Preese. Neither Witte nor Preese has much of a political resume, though they have both fundraised respectively, with Preese getting more dough than Witte. This one has the potential to go either way depending on the leanings of the year and trends in the seat. Given its ancestral Republican DNA and this being a Dem midterm, the slightest of edges goes to Witte to win a term in St. Paul.
What happened?
Lakeville itself in 57B moved just a point to the left from 2020 (Walz+3), which is now 7 points left of 2018 and 14 points left of 2016. Witte did win this Lean R rated seat, but Witte is going to be in for difficult reelection every biennium until this seat inevitably flips at some point this decade. The suburban leftwards movement is just too strong and ongoing. Senator Duckworth seems to be a strong overperformer after earning a titan slayer in 2020, so even as the district shifts under him, I expect him to hold on for more cycles than most, unless he moves for a promotion to higher office, which is entirely possible as Duckworth is only 35.
2022 Ratings:
House 57A: 57-41 Trump (’20), 56-41 Johnson, 58-35 Trump (’16)
House 57A Rating: Safe R
House 57B: 50-48 Biden, 50-46 Johnson, 51-40 Trump (’16)
House 57B Rating: Lean R
Senate 57 Rating: Safe R
2022 Results:
HD57A Results: 57-41 Jensen, 60-36 Wilson, 63-47 Koznick (R)
HD57B Results: 50-47 Walz, 51-44 Wilson, 52-48 Witte (R)
SD57: 59-41 Duckworth (R)
District 58 (New):
Prediction:
This is a super awkward “new” district, including uber-liberal Northfield and the rest of northern Rice County (58A) and Farmington plus the rest of rural southern Dakota County. Due the eastern half of this seat being so incredibly Republican, the Senate seat is likely going to go red this year. Chiropractor Bill Lieske more of the right-wing populist type won the endorsement and primary against Farmington School Board member Jake Cordes. Lieske is heavily favored defeat Clarice Grabau (D), a local teacher. The only thing keeping this seat from being Safe R is the fact that Lieske has apparently been completely absent from campaigning, raised peanuts, and Grabau has been impressing in the fundraising and campaign trail. Still, this is immensely difficult for a Dem to win a Trump+5 seat, though Tim Walz did carry it in the last midterm. 58A is immovable in its politics due to the vast polarization with Northfield voting as a bloc for Dems, and that being enough to overcome the rest of the district, but that means the margin rarely moves from a mid-single-digit Dem win. Dems are going with Northfield-based non-profit executive Kristi Pursell, and she is strongly favored to win against accountant Gary Bruggenthies (R) in November. In 58B, incumbent Pat Garafalo is the last man standing from the 2013 group of Republicans who voted for marriage equality, with most of them defeated by homophobes in primaries immediately thereafter and one other losing a general election a cycle later. Garafalo still remains standing, and will win a 10th term against Dem Some Dude Steve Dungy.
What happened?
Northfield moved a bit left from 2020, and the rest of the district mostly stayed static. It’ll be difficult for Democrats to overcome the 6 point gap in the Senate seat, even though that gap is unlikely to grow. Polarization between the core of Northfield and the surrounding area.
2022 Ratings:
House 58A: 52-46 Biden, 55-42 Walz, 48-44 Clinton
House 58A Rating: Likely D
House 58B:57-41 Trump (’20), 53-43 Johnson, 57-34 Trump (’16)
House 58B Rating: Safe R
Senate Rating: Likely R
2022 Results:
HD58A Results: 54-43 Walz, 51-44 Blaha, 54-45 Pursell (D)
HD58B Results: 56-41 Jensen, 58-36 Wilson, 62-37 Garofalo (R)
SD58: 53-47 Lieske (R)
Seats 59-63 are Minneapolis, and Minneapolis is the bluest white-majority city in America (Left of San Francisco, Denver, Seattle, Madison, etc). The leftward trend in the urban core of Minneapolis led to this baseline. The most Republican seat in Minneapolis was 81-14 Dem, a far bigger margin than the implied 75-25 would be.
District 59 North Minneapolis. Senator Bobby Joe Champion and Representatives Fue Lee and Esther Agbaje are all unopposed
Gubernatorial Results:
59A: 81-14 Walz
59B: 84-13 Walz
District 60 Northeast and Southeast Minneapolis, essentially all of Minneapolis that is east of the Mississippi River. Senator Kari Dziedic and Representative Mohamud Noor are both unopposed, while Representative Sydney Jordan has token GOP opposition in Diana Halsey
Gubernatorial Results:
60A: 85-11 Walz
60B: 85-9 Walz
District 61 This is southwest Minneapolis, including the chain of lakes, by far the richest part of Minneapolis. Senator Scott Dibble and Reps Frank Hornstein and Jamie Long are all unopposed.
Gubernatorial Results:
61A: 86-10 Walz
61B: 88-10 Walz
District 62 Southern downtown, and all of uptown Minneapolis: Hipster central. Senator Omar Fateh survived his primary against DFLer Shaun Laden 61-39, and has and a token GOP opponent Andrew Schmitz in November. Rep Aisha Gomez also survived her DFL primary against Osman Ahmed 69-31. Representative Hodan Hassan has token Republican opponent Taylor Hammond.
Gubernatorial Results:
62A: 89-6 Walz
62B: 89-7 Walz
District 63 South Minneapolis. Senator Patricia Torres Ray is retiring. The winner of the DFL primary was Zaynam Mohamed over Todd Scott; Mohamed will win the general election against GOPer Shawn Holster; 63A Representative Jim Davnie is retiring, leaving the seat for Samantha Sencer-Mura after she defeats Republican Kyle Bragg. Incumbent Emma Greenman is unopposed in 63B.
Gubernatorial Results:
63A: 89-8 Walz
63B: 86-12 Walz
Districts 64-67:
Prediction:
These seats are all St. Paul, and all are heavily D, though not quite to the 86% that Minneapolis is.
District 64 Highland Park and Snelling Hamline in southern St. Paul. Senator Erin Murphy and Representatives Kaohly Vang Her and Dave Pinto are all running against Republican Challengers, Robert Bushard, Dan Walsh and Lorraine Englund respectively
Gubernatorial Results:
64A: 85-12 Walz
64B: 81-16 Walz
District 65 Downtown and the small portion of St. Paul south of the Mississippi River. Senator Sandy Pappas has been in the senate for 32 years. And will make it 36 since she won her tri-lateral primary against Sheigh Freeberg and Zuki Ellis. Republican Paul Holmgren is the sacrificial lamb for November. Both 65A and 65B are open as incumbents Rena Moran is running for Ramsey County Commissioner and Carlos Molinari is retiring. Moran will be replaced by Samakab Hussein and Molinari will be replaced by Maria Isa Perez-Hedges who won her primary 82-18 over Anna Botz. Both Reps-in-waiting have general election opponents named John Schonebaum and Kevin Fjensted.
Gubernatorial Results:
65A: 80-14 Walz
65B: 76-20 Walz
District 66 Northern St. Paul. With John Marty being drawn into a suburban-only seat, this is open, and DFLer Clare Oumou Verbeten will take office after she defeats Republican Mikki Murray and Libertarian Jeremy Peichel. 66A is also open with the retirement of Alice Hausman who has been in office since 1989. There was an endorsement-less primary to replace her. Leigh Finke was winner of the primary against Dave Thomas. Republican Trace Johnson awaits Finke in November before Finke can be sworn in. 66B incumbent Athena Hollins has Republican opponent Jay Hill.
Gubernatorial Results:
66A: 82-15 Walz
66B: 77-18 Walz
District 67 Eastern St. Paul. Senator Foung Hawj is unopposed. If Erik Mortensen is the most problematic Republican in office, 67A incumbent John Thompson is the most problematic Democrat in office. The difference is the DFL kicked his ass out in a primary with Liz Lee defeating him 89-11. He had been drummed out the party while still in the legislature due to his personal and criminal problems in his 2 short years in office. He won’t be missed. Lee is going to take office after she beats Republican Beverly Peterson in November. 67B incumbent Jay Xiong has GOP opponent Fred Turk.
Gubernatorial Results:
67A: 69-25 Walz
67B: 71-23 Walz
Conclusion: There were a total of 7 misses between the two Chambers, in both directions. The biggest miss was in SD-3, where the House seats both flipped D to R, while the Senate seat flipped R to D, and that’s nearly half of the the total misses in the state. The Dem majority in the House is slightly smaller than anticipated and, while the Dems scraped together a narrow majority in the Senate, while a narrow GOP majority was predicted. Overall, a decent prediction year now, in the 8th edition of Oggoldy’s Minnesota legislature seat-by-seat breakdown since 2008.
