Week 6 of the intrading the Senate.
The goal of this is to follow the changes in the intrade odds as the election comes closer and watch the changes with developments in the campaign.
Methodology: I'm only interested in watching the races that are competitive. Many of the races really have no market because one candidate is a prohibitive favorite. I'm also not going to be looking at any race where the normalized probability of one candidate winning is > 80%. Normalized probability means that I'll be the 2 highest candidates and treating them like their probabilities add to 100%.
Ratings changes this week: And what a week it was for ratings changes. All of the changes have moved towards the Democrats this week except New Mexico, and I'm not sure it's real. Going alphabetically: Bill Nelson (D) has taken an 83.3-16.7 lead over Connie Mack IV in Florida, moving over the 80% threshold to be removed form the board. Last week my Intrading the Senate post was only up an hour when commenters pointed out that the Massachusetts race had changed, with Warren pulling ahead. Michigan is now off the board as Stabenow has been over the 80% level for 2 weeks. New Mexico is the exception to the moves, as Heinrich (D) no longer holds an 80% probability. And last but DEFINITELY not least, Baldwin has taken a lead over Thompson in Wisconsin.
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