The only debate among the two contenders for the Democratic Nomination to challenge Greg Abbott, Governor of Texas in the November General Election in Texas will debate tonight at St. James Episcopal Church at 7 p.m. CST. The event will be streamed live over KXAN.com This is the only debate scheduled before the May 22nd Democratic Primary Run-off Election. Early Voting starts May 14 and ends May 18.
What will we probably see tonight?
It will be interesting to see how White, son of former Governor Mark White, and Lupe Valdez, the recently retired Sheriff of Dallas County, match up on the debate stage.
White is a Houston business man, is normally more glib of tongue than Valdez, who is noted for getting things done with very little grandstanding or melodrama. Some feel White’s run for Governor without having any prior governmental experience, except as being the son of a former governor, is a disadvantage. His father, Mark White, served one term as governor (1983-1987). Unlike his father who had served as Secretary of State and Attorney General of Texas before running for Governor, statewide offices requiring building a statewide network, Andrew White jumped into the Governor’s race this year, running more on nostalgia for his dad’s tenure in office than on an actual statewide political organization.
His supporters claim that he is “more electable” than Valdez. He trailed far behind her in the Democratic Primary (27.4% to her 42.91%). In a crowded field of candidates, Valdez came within less than 7.1 points of avoiding a Run-off. White trailed her by 158,620 votes. Valdez was considered the dark horse long shot candidate when she was first elected Sheriff of Dallas County in 2005. Dallas County had never elected a woman to head their Sheriff’s Department, the 7th largest in the nation. Also, many thought that her sexual orientation would prevent her winning in a city where outspoken elected and re-elected to head the 7th largest Sheriff's department in the nation. She is noted for focusing on getting the hard things accomplished through team work rather than grandstanding and being long on rhetoric.
Valdez also lacks a statewide political organization. There has not been a Democrat elected to statewide office in Texas since Garry Mauro retired as Texas Land Commissioner in 1999.
We will probably hear two different views on how to address our state's public education financial crisis. White is proposing casinos to fund education, which would probably be more of a band aid or smoke and mirrors than a real solution. The Texas Lottery was sold to voters as a solution for education financing, yet only provides a very small part of the funds necessary to fund education in a state as large and diverse as Texas.
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Lupe will probably favor getting down to business and facing the tough questions necessary to address the flaws in the Robin Hood Plan and the state's over reliance on residential property taxes. She is noted for cutting to the heart of problems, rolling up the shirt sleeves with people of differing viewpoints, and working out serious problems which government has a statutory obligation to meet. She did this in Dallas and as governor it is expected that would be her approach.
The Elephant in the Room.
Some think Valdez' sexual orientation is a deterrent to her being elected in Texas. however, she has always been transparent, and she has been elected and re-elected multiple times in Dallas despite very extreme well financed conservative religious groups. Acceptance of LGBT rights is much more prevalent in the State now than it was when she was first elected to office as Sheriff of Dallas County.; We are several years beyond the legalization of gay marriage, and it is more accepted as normal than previously. Each time she has run for office, there have been predictions that "She can't win." However, she always has won.
In this year's Democratic primary, despite entering the race late (at the end of the year following her retirement as Dallas County Sheriff, she came within 8 points of avoiding a run-off in the primary in a crowded field of candidates. Obviously, she resonates with the Democratic base. Valdez is the nation’s first openly gay Hispanic to be elected Sheriff in the nation. She is former U.S. Army captain and federal agent. The San Antonio native, daughter of migrant farm workers, credits her public-school teachers for enabling her to believe in herself and focus her attention on studies which prepared her for fulfilling dreams which were bigger than she could imagine for herself when she was a child.
2018 Unofficial Election Return for Democratic Primary for Governor — Source Texas Secretary of State
It seems absurd to assume that a candidate who received substantially fewer votes in the primary would be the "more electable candidate" in a general election which depends upon drawing out voters from the party's base and attracting others to vote progressive.
The demographics of this 2018 General Election Voter should be younger this year than in previous mid-term election cycles because of the March 4 our Lives voter registration drives. Old taboos resonate less with this crowd than with the over 65 voters. . Many of the over 65 group have greater acceptance of LGBT rights now than when Valdez first ran for public office and won the Dallas County Sheriff’s race (nearly a decade ago.
With the #MeToo movement, a male candidate is at as great, maybe an even greater disadvantage, in the eyes of many voters than a respected LGBT female candidate. This year it appears in Texas, most Democratic voters trust women candidates more than their male opponents. Throughout the state, in contested US Congress and Texas House and Senate races, the Democratic nominee choses was female despite the campaigns of some better funded male candidates. In a field where Lupe Valdez was the only woman, she got 42% of the vote in the Democratic Primary. Instead of being female being a disadvantage, this year it is a plus.
Any candidate challenging Greg Abbott will have an uphill battle. Few can stand up to his formidable $40mil + war chest and exceptionally well maintained and efficient GOTV organization.
The biggest obstacle either of these candidates will face is the inertia in the Texas Democratic Party and the impact of years of defeatism among Texas Democrats. Some improvements have occurred in recent years, but much work remains to be done to bring the State Democratic Party's operation up to date and competitive with the Republican Party's GOTV organization. This year more money has been flowing into the coffers of Texas Democrats than into those of incumbent Republicans. Beto's intense grassroots organizing is a plus for all candidates this year. There are opportunities for Democrats to win in Districts throughout the state which have not been swing districts for decades until this election cycle. Having full ballots with Democratic Nominees in most slots will help the top of the ticket in November also.
The grassroots "Pissed Off Won't Take It Any More" progressive women and allied progressive men who got out the 3,877,868 Democratic Votes Cast in Texas for Hillary Clinton in 2016, are more likely to rally around Valdez than White. There are rumblings from some Latino groups complaining about her cooperation with INS. As sheriff, it was her job to enforce the laws, not to pick and choose which laws to enforce. As governor, she can help shape legislation and veto those which are abhorrent to her. The Texas Tribune reported that White is the owner of Geovox Security, a company that sells technology that has been used at the border to detect people hiding in vehicles. If White were greatly opposed to interdiction of undocumented persons crossing the border, he probably would not have overseen and profited from the development of such technology. He states that if he is elected governor, he will divest of his interest in Geovox.
Neither White nor Valdez have strong statewide organizations. White’s father was in office decades ago and unlike GWB, Andrew White cannot coast on his father's network or contacts. Mark White’s network is too old and virtually non-existent.
Valadez is a regional political incumbent. She has the advantage over White of having led a large governmental entity and having successful negotiated and advocated for sufficient appropriations to get the job done. However, like Wendy Davis and Leticia Van de Putte, she must build a statewide network while competing against one, of if not the best-funded Governor in the nation.
It is not a prerequisite in Texas to have prior governmental experience to be elected Governor. Thomas Mitchell Campbell (D- governor from 1906 to 1908) was General Manager of the Railroad. James “Pa” Fergusson (D-governor from 1914-1916) was a banker. His widow, Miriam “Ma” Ferguson (D- Governor in 1924 and again in 1932) was First Lady of Texas before becoming governor. Until Wilbert Lee “Pappy” O’Daniel (D- 1940) became governor, he had bee President of the Fort Worth Chamber of Commerce. Another famous son of a politician, George W. Bush, had not been elected to political office before his run for Governor. However, unlike White, GWB had played a key role in his father’s recent campaigns. George Bush was able to capitalize on his father’s strong statewide and national political network. He used the platform of his part ownership of the Texas Rangers to launch his political career. Running a business that detects illegal aliens in cars along the border is less enticing to many voters than the smell of baseball gloves and nachos at Ranger Stadium!
It has been decades since a Democrat was in the Governor’s chair in Austin. Ann Richards was the last Democrat elected Governor in Texas, serving from 1991-1995. Richards was treasurer from 1983-1991.
The administrations of the last three governors of Texas (George W Bush 1995-2000 with Rick Perry as Lt. Governor, Rick Perry, 2000-2015, and Greg Abbott, 2015- present) are difficult to distinguish from each other.
If Texans are ready for a change, Lupe Valdez will be more easily distinguished from most of the incumbents in Austin and most recent governors of the state. Even though White differs from them on policy, when you place Lupe Valdez and Mark White beside the last three governors, Lupe is the one who stands out. She is shorter. She is darker. She is usually smiling and highly accessible. She doesn’t look like them. She doesn’t sound like them. She looks and sounds more like many of us – the people who aren’t the “white men in suits” who are accustomed to running things in business and in Austin and in Washington.
Although many women still do the work to keep men in power who vote against our best interest, many are waking up. Not only has a male dominated Texas Legislature voted to dismantle much of the women’s health network in Texas, Governor Abbott vetoed a bi-partisan bill passed by both houses of the Texas Legislature last year to extend the Commission to study Women’s Health Care for two more years. Texas has the highest maternal mortality rate and infant mortality rate in the nation, and many Texans think that things will not improve as long as men dominate the Texas Legislature and Governor’s office.
The most effective block of voters who have demonstrated the power to influence its members to ignore partisanship and cross over to vote incumbents out of office in Texas is the teachers unions. When Wendy Davis was first elected State Senator, it was the block voting by teachers, both Democratic and Republican, who voted as block against the Republican incumbent which got her elected. This year, the failure of the Legislature and the refusal of the Governor to solve the school finance problems and to adequately fund teachers’ pay, health care and retirement, will probably play a decisive role in the Lt. Governor’s race. Dan Patrick is a staunch foe of public education. He has blocked debate on school finance by demanding that it be linked to school choice. It was under Abbott’s watch that the public-school budget was slashed, and thousands of teachers took pay cuts or lost their jobs. Some funding has been restored, but not nearly enough. Most teachers pay for their own classroom supplies and for other necessities for the classroom which should be underwritten by the state or school districts. The refusal of the state to contribute more than $75 a month toward Teachers and Teacher Retirees health insurance cost has transferred the bulk of premium increases to the employees. Their health plans now have such large deductible and co-pays that many teachers forego important screenings and health care because they are virtually having to pay out of pocket for so much and feel they cannot afford to go to the doctor.
Legislators allowing guns on college campuses and failing to address public school safety further incites this group of voters. Most feel it is unrealistic to require teachers to be armed while teaching. Pro-gun rhetoric on the floor of the Texas Legislature coupled proposals of anti-women invasive legislation is pulling more and more women into political activism. In 2017, the largest gathering on the mall of the Texas Legislature was the Women’s March. In 2018, there were less people at the Women’s March in Austin, but statewide, when the number of people participating in Women’s Marches throughout the state were complied, it is estimated that even more women participated.
Will this register as more Democratic Votes in November?
Maybe. Maybe not.
Democrats have increased their turn-out by a greater percentage in the past 2 years in Texas than Republicans. Republicans still outnumber Democrats in primary voting by a 2 to 4 time margin in most races. This year there was 1,549,573 Republican Primary voters vs. 1, 042,914 Democratic Primary Voters. In 2016 there were 2,836,488 Republican Primary voters in Texas vs 1,435,895 Democratic Primary Voters. Statewide the top of the ticket Republican in the 2016 General Election received 4,685,047votes compared with the top of the ticket Democrat receiving 3,877,868 votes. Democrats must increase turnout statewide by between half a million to a million votes to win any statewide races In Texas this year. In 2016 Greg Abbott received 2,796,547 votes in the General Election to Wendy Davis’ 1,835,596 votes. Democrats fell 960,951 votes under the Republican turnout. Both top of the ticket statewide Democratic Nominees were regional political leaders who neither had waged a state-wide campaign. Even though the party has made considerable strides in closing the gap in the past couple of years, neither of the top two candidates for the Democratic Nomination for Governor have waged statewide races previously. The energy coming from Beto O’Rouark’s US Senatorial campaign may bleed over beneficially to the Governor’s race this year, unlike in 2016 when David Alameel was more of a “cash cow” for the party than a vibrant Senatorial contender.
It is probable that Democrats will unite behind which ever candidate wins the May 22nd Democratic Primary Run-off. If groups like the HRC Super Volunteers, #March 4 Our Lives, The Revolution, #MeToo, Resistance, and Indivisible rally around the candidate and continue growing and turning out the grassroots to vote progressive, the gap can be bridged. It will not happen merely because there is an opportunity. It will take hard, persistent, determined work by thousands of activists who refuse to wait to let any campaign lead when they know that the incumbent is detrimental to our welfare. In 2016 grassroots from the bottom up activists turned out more voters for Hillary Clinton than had ever voted for any Democratic Presidential nominee in the history of Texas. This was done with almost no leadership or financial investment by the national campaign into Texas. If we can repeat that effort and grow from there this year for the Democratic ticket, there is a possibility that Democrat can turn opportunity into reality. Otherwise, 2018 will be a year of missed opportunity instead of the year of longed for dreams fulfilled.
Lupe Valdez’s website: https://www.lupevaldez.com/
Andrew White’s website: https://www.andrewwhite.com/
Watch the livestream courtesy of KXAN-TV.
