Hi everyone. This is my first diary on Kos, so hope you all find it interesting.
Like you, I found tonight’s Hardball incredibly disconcerting. But let me differentiate between the two guests – one of whose views I still value, the other who is just a BELTWAY HACK.
Chuck Todd: if I recall correctly, he said that he thought the two likeliest outcomes in the election would either be a sudden and surprising Romney sweep (i.e., of the Electoral College) or a very close Obama win. I know this at first blush sounds bad, but it does make a great deal of sense when you think of it. Now, I think Obama will win, but if you look at the map, there is very little chance, unfortunately, for Obama suddenly to take the lead in many “Leaning Red” states. I think ether is very little chance for Romany to take the lead in many ”Leaning blue” states too, but, let’s put it this way – the odds, though small, are better for Romney to take away some states unexpectedly from us, then for us to do the same to him.
At the same time, assuming Obama wins Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Colorado – and checks in at around 290 EVs, I think we can qualify it as a “close” win – which is what Todd was saying!
So, I think Todd’s views do make some sense.
Jonathan Martin – this clown, on the other hand, exemplifies the very worst kind of Beltway Hack. And I live in the beltway, have worked on campaigns here, and so can tell you, from personal knowledge, that this guy is just terrible when it comes to sucking from the Republican national Committee teat regarding campaigns. Martin is a kind of a lost-twin to Mark Halperin – forever thinking that everything “helps John McCain!”
So, I love his characterization of the polls as still reflecting movement towards Romney! Has he even looked at any of the polling the last few days? To quote Bugs Bunny: “what an ultra maroon!”
I sort of feel the way, in an old Monty Python skit, they once had John Cleese, stating that the proper attitude the British should show towards Belgians - ”let’s not say anything about them." Let’s simply ignore them.”
Basically, just ignore Jonathan Martin. He is not worth any thinking person’s time or efforts. Few hacks are.
