If you want to be sure to defeat Donald Trump in November, all evidence shows that Bernie Sanders would be the best bet. This is not to say that Hillary Clinton could not defeat Trump, but it would be too close for comfort. Here are the reasons why Bernie would do so well.
1) Matchups between Sanders and Trump. All polls show that Sanders would beat Trump by double digits. For example, a recent Quinnipiac poll found the following:
Sanders beat Trump 52% to 38% +14
Clinton beat Trump 46% to 40% +6
The reason why Sanders does so much better is because over half of the Independents would choose him over Trump, and Sanders even gets some Republicans—13% of them. Hillary gets only 39% of Independents and very few Republicans.
2) Independents. There will be a large number of Independents voting in November. Bernie is seen far more favorably by Independents than is Hillary. 55% of Independents view Bernie favorably and only 19% would definitely not vote for him, whereas 66% of Independents view Hillary unfavorably and 46% would definitely not vote for her.
3) Hillary Clinton is not liked, not even by many Democrats. When asked in a recent Quinnipiac poll what one word best described how they felt about the possibility of Hillary Clinton as President, only 212 of the responses were positive. (There were 635 Democrats in the overall sample of 1,451.) Most of the responses regarding Hillary (55%) were negative. Respondents used such words "a disaster" "scared or frightened", "liar, untrustworthy", "disgusted" to describe their feelings about Hillary becoming President. Unfortunately, this "one word" question was not asked about Bernie Sanders, but when this national sample was asked whether their opinion about Bernie was generally favorable or unfavorable, 50% replied "favorable" and only 37% "unfavorable"—a net score of +13. Hillary was seen favorably by 39% and unfavorably by 56%—a net score of −17.
4) The enthusiasm factor. Bernie Sanders has millions of enthusiastic supporters as witnessed by the many huge crowds he draws wherever he goes. Many of these supporters will be there for him as volunteers in the general election campaign. Enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton has declined by 8 percentage points in the past month and is now only 40 percent, while enthusiasm for Bernie has climbed 12 points to 56 percent. (NYTimes/CBS poll, March 17-20.)
5) Bernie Sanders is not corrupted by big money. If Hillary runs against Trump, she will be the only candidate who would have much of her campaign financed by moneyed interests. People will wonder just how much she would work in their interest.
6) A great many of Hillary Clinton's pledged delegates are from red states. The fact that Hillary has amassed a great number of pledged delegates is not a good indicator of how well she will do in November. A great many of these delegates are from southern states—red states—which are not likely to vote for her in the general election.
7) The anti-establishment mood. After years of a do-nothing Congress, the mood of the country has turned strongly against both of the political parties—against the establishment. Hillary Clinton is the consummate establishment candidate.
8) The false comparison with McGovern in 1972. Many Democrats who witnessed the resounding defeat of George McGovern in 1972 fear that a liberal candidate, supported by a grass-roots campaign, will meet the same fate in 2016. These Democrats fail to understand what happened in 1972 and why 2016 is not at all comparable. In the first place, McGovern was up against one of the most unscrupulous political organizations in history—CREEP (Committee for the Re-elect the President). Recall the "dirty tricks," Watergate, etc. Furthermore, Nixon used his powers as president to remove two major issues that could have defeated him: inflation and Vietnam. To save himself, the Republican president drastically intervened in the economy by freezing wages and prices a year before the 1972 election. And he took McGovern's signature issue away from him by having Kissinger secretly negotiate peace in Vietnam so that by election time hostilities had almost completely ceased.
Then there was the Eagleton affair. Eagleton was McGovern's choice for Vice-President but, soon after he was nominated, information surfaced that Eagleton had had psychological problems. McGovern at first said that he backed Eagleton "1000 percent," but a few days later dropped him from the ticket. When asked in a national survey to give reasons for not supporting McGovern, a great many responded "because he's weak and indecisive." (Very few mentioned that McGovern was too liberal.)
9) Few are bothered about the "democratic socialist" label. In a recent Bloomberg poll, 75 percent of likely voters said they were not concerned about Bernie Sanders describing himself as a democratic socialist. It is clear to most voters that Bernie not a radical, but rather is taking positions that are popular and in the tradition of the Democratic party—minimum wage, access to the education necessary for a good job, preventing global warming, controlling the power of banks and Wall Street, fair trade, helping families struggling with childcare, provide for family leave, building interstructure and creating jobs, ensuring equal participation by all, etc.
The Democratic party is at a cross-roads. The Superdelegates are in a position to decide which road to follow. They could stick with Hillary Clinton and travel down a risky road. Even if she wins, she will be faced with the same road-blocks that have prevented Barack Obama from achieving most of his agenda. The road-blocks are many—filibuster, gerrymandered House, moderate Republicans face a well-funded primary opponent if they do not toe-the-line, refusal to consider presidential nominees for key positions, threat of shutting down the government, etc.) Given the history of the past seven years, we cannot expect Republican leaders to accept even incremental change in the liberal direction. And so, with Hillary, we will have four more years of deadlock.
Or the Superdelegates could choose the candidate who has a strong possibility of being elected and will bring with him a rejuvenated and re-energized Democratic party with millions of new party members ready to support him in his efforts. Bernie Sanders uses New Deal policies as models and would return the Party to that tradition. It is a tradition that puts the needs of the average working man and woman first and foremost. (By the way, it is a tradition that increased the ranks of Democrats to nearly 50% for decades after the New Deal.) Bernie already has stated many clear goals and explains them in plain language. He would use the bully pulpit (fireside chat) to rally support from the people, just as FDR did. He would use "people power" to bombard Congress from the outside with emails, tweets, etc., and shine light on the road-blocks and who set them up. The Republican leadership would not be able to get away with what they have been doing for years.
