Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D. NJ)
Here’s the latest news out of New Jersey courtesy of Quinnipiac University’s latest poll:
In the closely watched race for governor of New Jersey, Democrat Mikie Sherrill receives 49 percent support, Republican Jack Ciattarelli receives 41 percent support, and Libertarian Party candidate Vic Kaplan and Socialist Worker Party candidate Joanne Kuniansky each receive 1 percent support, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University New Jersey poll of likely voters released today. Six percent are either undecided (4 percent) or did not provide a response (2 percent).
Democrats (93 - 3 percent) back Sherrill, while Republicans (90 - 5 percent) back Ciattarelli. Independents are mixed, with 45 percent backing Sherrill and 41 percent backing Ciattarelli.
Men are mixed, with 48 percent backing Ciattarelli and 44 percent backing Sherrill. Women 55 - 35 percent back Sherrill.
2-WAY RACE
Without third party candidates included, Sherrill would receive 51 percent support among likely voters and Ciattarelli would receive 42 percent support. Seven percent are either undecided (5 percent) or did not provide a response (2 percent).
Click here for the full results.
In Quinnipiac’s poll, it shows Sherrill leading on who’s the most honest candidate that cares about you and on all the issues with the exception of taxes which is where Cirattarelli has a slight lead 46-40. But Democrats have found an opening on this issue:
Jack Ciattarelli’s lawyer is calling on U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill’s campaign to stop saying that he supports a 10% sales tax increase for New Jersey.
Sherrill’s lawyer said the campaign has no plans to end the attack.
The gubernatorial candidates are both promising voters that they’ll make the Garden State more affordable — a pivot from Gov. Phil Murphy, who openly stated in 2019 that addressing high taxes wasn’t the state’s priority.
So Sherrill, the Democratic nominee, and her backers have seized on Ciattarelli mentioning a 10% sales tax at a rally earlier this summer, particularly since a new attack ad with audio of the Republican speaking at the rally came out last week.
But outgoing Governor Phil Murphy (D. NJ) remains slightly (48/44) while Trump’s approval in the Garden State is in the toilet (41/55) with a slight majority of voters wanting to see the next Governor stand up to Trump (50/47). Which is great for Sherrill:
As Donald Trump continues to undermine the rule of law, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) has a stark warning for all of us: “He’s not leaving willingly.”
Sherrill, the Democratic candidate for New Jersey governor, sat down with Democracy Docket founder Marc Elias to discuss why it’s important for the Democratic Party to band together ahead of 2028.
“Some people, I think, are sort of treating this like normal times,” she said. “I would say that’s a wrong-headed look at what’s going on in the world.”
Sherrill’s experience on the House floor on Jan. 6, 2021 shapes her view of this democratic crisis. As she explained, “He’s not leaving. He’s not leaving willingly.”
She believes it’s going to take more than the end of his second term in 2029 to get rid of Trump, and that her Republican colleagues in the House certainly won’t be any help when time comes. They have made it clear they would rather serve Trump than serve democracy.
And bad for Ciattarelli:
The Trump-backed Republican, who came within three points of unseating Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy in 2021, won his party’s nomination again on Tuesday night. Ciattarelli has been running for governor for nearly a decade, losing his first bid in the 2017 primary.
Now, he’s leading a party that is hoping to upend Trenton, which has been ruled by Democrats for the past eight years.
“To our most well-known part-time resident who honored me with his endorsement and strong support: Thank you, President Donald J. Trump,” Ciattarelli said in a victory speech.
The general election will be a test of how Ciattarelli positions himself in a showdown with Democrat Mikie Sherrill, a four-term congressmember who won her party’s nomination shortly after Ciattarelli did.
“We won because our campaign is about people, not politics. It’s about vision, not division,” Ciattarelli told supporters gathered in Holmdel, in Monmouth County. He added that “New Jersey so desperately needs change” from Democratic rule, and said that “a vote for Mikie Sherrill is a vote for four more years of Phil Murphy.”
Ciattarelli was already the frontrunner when President Donald Trump endorsed him in May, but that nod inevitably means that the Garden State’s off-cycle gubernatorial will be a test of the MAGA movement in a state that leans blue.
Here’s a breakdown of what we are seeing in the Garden State:
The race is considered much closer than in Virginia, where the Democratic candidate, Abigail Spanberger, is widely seen as the front-runner, in part because the Trump administration’s federal work force cuts have been felt acutely in the state.
Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in New Jersey by about 860,000 voters and Ms. Sherrill has had the edge in every poll released. But Mr. Trump did far better than expected in the state in 2024 — losing to Vice President Kamala Harris by just six percentage points, a marked improvement from 2016 and 2020, when he flopped by double digits.
His showing, and the state’s 2.3 million voters who are unaffiliated with either party and considered up for grabs, have given Republicans reason to hope.
“We know we need Virginia and New Jersey,” Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, last year’s Democratic vice-presidential nominee, told an audience last month at the Democratic National Committee’s summer meeting in Minneapolis. “Get those won. Prepare for the midterms.”
On Tuesday, the committee announced it would kick in another $1.5 million in support of Ms. Sherrill, bringing its total to $3 million — more than it has ever invested in a governor’s race in New Jersey. A group associated with the Democratic Governors Association has committed to spending $20 million to help boost Ms. Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot.
National Republican organizations have so far contributed significantly less. The Republican Governors Association has spent $1.5 million on recent ads in support of Mr. Ciattarelli and on Tuesday purchased $1.1 million more.
But Democrats aren’t taking this race for granted:
A month after putting down a $1.5 million investment into New Jersey to boost Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair)’s gubernatorial campaign, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) is going double-or-nothing.
With seven weeks left to go before Election Day, the DNC announced this morning that it will send an additional $1.5 million to the New Jersey Democratic Party’s coordinated campaign to hire new on-the-ground staff, make more voter contacts, and experiment with new tactics and tools to sway voters in the races for governor, State Assembly, and local office. According to the DNC, it’s the largest investment the national party has ever made in an off-year New Jersey election.
“With stakes this high for New Jerseyans, the DNC is all in to support Democrats up and down the ballot who have a proven record of delivering results for New Jersey,” DNC Chairman Ken Martin said in a statement.
DNC money will also be used to expand outreach in New Jersey’s Black, Hispanic, and Asian American communities, which swung towards Republicans last year and which Martin told the New Jersey Globe his party is committed to winning back.
“One of the things we can’t do any longer is just assume that communities of color are automatically going to support Democratic candidates, meaning that we need to engage them early in conversation around their hopes and dreams for their communities,” Martin said. “And that’s what we’ve been working with our county parties in New Jersey and the state party on doing throughout the summer and fall.”
Four weeks ago, the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers showed Sherrill leading Ciattarelli 44-35 but with a key focus on demographics:
White voters are divided between the two candidates (38% Sherrill to 44% Ciattarelli), but Sherrill leads by double digits among Black voters (69% to 4%), Hispanic voters (56% to 22%), and Asian voters (47% to 18%). About one in five Black voters and Hispanic voters and one-third of Asian voters remain uncertain, however.
Sherrill has a wide lead among those ages 18 to 34 (48% to 21%), but her lead narrows among those 35 to 49 years old (47% to 29%), as well as among those who are 65 years or older (48% to 38%). Her lead disappears among voters ages 50 to 64 (36% to 41%).
Socioeconomic factors impact vote choice. Sherill does better with voters who have at least a college degree (53% to 26%), while Ciattarelli does better with those who have some college or less (34% to 45%). Sherrill’s lead over Ciattarelli is largest among voters in households making $150,000 or more annually (58% to 28%). Voters in less affluent households are more divided: 37% to 44% among those in households making between $100,000 and $150,000, 39% to 32% among those making $50,000 or less, and 43% to 35% among those making $50,000-100,000).
Geographically, Sherill’s biggest margin over Ciattarelli comes from voters in urban areas (46% to 23%) and suburban areas (49% to 30%). Voters in other regions of the state are nearly split between the two candidates: 41% to 41% among exurbanites, 39% to 41% among those living in the southern part of the state or near Philadelphia, and 43% to 39% among shore dwellers.
Sherrill is also laser focused on the local issues:
The first rule of holes: When you’re stuck in one, stop digging.
This is precisely what Rep. Mikie Sherrill’s call to declare a state of emergency on New Jersey utility costs is all about. And we need it. New Jersey families have been victims of failed energy policies dominated by special interests for years, and they now face a very real crisis of electric bills that too many families cannot afford.
Electricity is a lifeline utility service, meaning it is essential for basic health and safety. Moreover, without electricity it is impossible to participate in our economy or for kids to succeed in school. No one, especially those struggling on low, moderate and fixed incomes — including seniors — should have to choose between keeping their lights on or buying food or medicine. Air conditioning and heat are not luxuries but necessities for many during the hot summer months and the cold winters. Yet right now in New Jersey, families are having to make these choices and putting their health at risk.
Under the New Jersey state constitution, the governor has the legal authority to declare a state of emergency during natural or man-made disasters, such as severe weather events, civil unrest or public health crises. The primary goal of the declaration is to mobilize government resources to respond to the crisis. Again, that's precisely what our next governor should do. An all-of-government response is needed.
New Jersey’s utility companies are requesting hundreds of millions of dollars in new rate hikes — on top of the average 20% electric bill increases we were hit with this summer. Sherrill’s pledge to stop electricity rate hikes and focus on ways to get ourselves out of this mess is a necessary first step.
Sherrill’s plan also calls for a new level of transparency and accountability from our utility companies, including PSE&G, JCP&L, Atlantic City Electric and Rockland Electric. She has pledged to immediately open their books and find out what they are doing with the money they collect from us.
And focusing on reaching key demographic voting blocks:
The ad, titled enfrentará (“to confront”), comes in four versions — 30 seconds and 15 seconds, each in English and Spanish. The campaign said it has launched a “six-figure” digital and radio campaign, which is part of a broader, seven-figure effort to reach Latino voters in the state.
“Mikie will take on anybody — from special interests to her own party and Donald Trump — to deliver for New Jersey families,” said Sherrill campaign manager Alex Ball. “She is the only candidate in this race with a real plan to fight for our state and lower costs for New Jersey families.”
The ad features Angel Quiles, a 22-year veteran of the U.S. Army who retired as a master sergeant and school board vice president in Garfield. Quiles said Sherrill is unafraid to fight anybody, including President Donald Trump, and said she’ll create a “public report” to show how the state uses tax dollars.
While Ciattarelli is taking a homophobic attack approach:
Republican Jack Ciattarelli’s campaign for governor released a new digital ad on Wednesday criticizing Rep. Mikie Sherrill’s (D-Montclair) vow to promote LGBTQ education in New Jersey schools.
The clip was pulled from the tail end of a May primary debate between Democratic candidates for governor. NJ Spotlight News anchor Briana Vannozzi asked the candidates whether parents should have the right to opt their children out of LGBTQ-related content, similar to how students can be removed from sex ed-related curriculum.
“I believe that parents have the right to oversee their children’s education,” Sherrill said. “I would push an LGBTQ education into our schools. Parents have a right to opt out of a lot of things, but this is not an area where they should be opting out, because this is an area of understanding the background of people throughout our nation. And right now we see, for example, at the Naval Academy, an erasure of history.”
The congresswoman was referencing the removal of some 400 books from the Naval Academy’s library after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s office told the school earlier this year to remove books that promoted diversity, equity, and inclusion.
Her remarks are bookended by text over a black screen that reads “Mikie Sherrill’s Education Plan,” then, “It’s your choice. Not her’s. Vote this November 4th.”
Also, Ciattarelli is lying about his record on this:
Seemingly taking a page out of Donald Trump and JD Vance’s election playbook, Ciattarelli is trying to fashion himself as a moderate on abortion—meaning he largely avoids the topic, but when he can’t, he uses phrases like “abortion limit,” which is the GOP’s preference when they’re trying to avoid saying “ban.”
The Garden State is pretty comfortably blue and hasn’t elected a Republican governor in 12 years. But Kamala Harris only beat Donald Trump by six points in November, and Sherrill is only leading Ciattarelli by nine; in 2021, Ciattarelli lost to Murphy by three. Polls are getting a little too close for comfort, and voters could also be feeling a little too comfortable with the fact that abortion is completely legal in the state. Ciattarelli hasn’t really addressed this and seems focused on keeping up his facade; his campaign website reads, “Jack respects that this issue evokes strong feelings from well-intentioned people on both sides of the issue.” Luckily, his friendships and financial records have addressed it for him.
“I have never advocated for the repeal or overturn Roe v. Wade, and I’ve never not advocated for what is right to choose,” Ciattarelli said in 2021, during a debate with Murphy. But eight months later, on May 2, 2022, Ciattarelli donated $5,000 to Lou Barletta’s campaign for Pennsylvania’s Republican gubernatorial nomination, according to never-before-reported financial filings from the Pennsylvania Department of State. That was the day the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health opinion leaked—a version of the opinion that would eventually overturn Roe. That night, Barletta tweeted: “If this is true, it would be an enormous, life-saving victory for unborn children,” along with the link to Politico’s coverage.
Let’s keep up the momentum to keep Jersey Blue! Click below to donate and get involved with Sherrill and her fellow Garden State Democrats campaigns:
Governor
Mikie Sherrill
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