NYT/Siena, which has had weird demographics and has been a bit bearish on Kamala Harris, now has her up 4 (rounded) nationally, her strongest result in their poll.
The finding is the first time Ms. Harris has led Mr. Trump in the Times/Siena poll since July, when President Biden dropped out of the race and Democrats rallied behind Ms. Harris as his replacement. It comes as the contest moves into its final month, and surveys from the battleground states find the race to be one of the closest in modern history.
While the Times/Siena poll shows some solid advantages for Mr. Trump, the results suggest Ms. Harris is making gains, if small ones, on questions about temperament, trust and change that can be critical in a presidential race.
The poll, conducted from Sept. 29 to Oct. 6 among 3,385 likely voters, found that Ms. Harris led Mr. Trump, the Republican, by 49 percent to 46 percent, a slight lead that is within the poll’s margin of error.
Good trend.
Of course, they also have another of their weird polls, with her down 13 in FL, which ain't happening. Nate Cohn once again twists himself in pretzels to rationalize their outlier, but it comes down to his theory that the election overall will be similar to 2022, when Democrats got clobbered in FL.
The national poll is one of the normal-looking results: It finds Kamala Harris ahead by four percentage points nationwide, 49 percent to 46 percent (these are rounded figures), compared with her three-point lead in The New York Times’s polling average. It’s her best national Times/Siena poll of the cycle.
Our first Texas poll of the cycle also looks “normal.” Donald J. Trump leads by six points, 50 percent to 44 percent, another tally that’s right in line with the polling average and close to the 2020 result.
And then there’s Florida.
Our first poll of the state this cycle finds Mr. Trump ahead by a staggering 13 points, 55 percent to 41 percent (again, rounded figures). This looks nothing like the other polls of the state.
But let's say Cohn is right, and that Trump will do well in states where Republicans did well two years ago. And let’s say Harris will do well where Democrats did well. And let’s say we don’t sweat if the early returns in FL look bad, as they did in 2020 and 2022, foreshadowing absolutely nothing about what was happening nationwide.
Two years ago, Josh Shapiro won big in PA, and John Fetterman had a solid win, despite having a stroke. Democrats swept MI, mostly by large margins. Tony Evers won in WI, but Ron Johnson also won, but by a closer margin and against a weak opponent. So, by Cohn's theory, Harris wins PA and MI comfortably, and probably ekes it out in WI (Marquette poll there is the gold standard and has her up 5).
In GA, Brian Kemp won big and Raphael Warnock won small, but Kemp is a non-MAGA Republican, so that state probably leans Trump but is by no means solid. In NC, Ted Budd won a close one, so let's say it's also lean Trump but is hardly safe.
And then the southwest...
Democrats swept AZ by mostly close margins, and swept all but the Governor’s race in NV, but Joe Lombardo, too, is very much a non-MAGA Republican.
So, to summarize, if this year reflects 2022, Harris sweeps the blue wall states and NV and AZ, easily giving her the Electoral College, with GA and NC close.
So, we're in good shape, and I still think we have some dynamics, such as Dobbs and enthusiasm and youth— which means low-propensity voters— that aren't showing up in the polls. And money. And ground game.
Harris is winning, and the trend is very notable. Cohn notes it.
Harris hasn't won, and we still need to help her in whatever ways we can, but this isn’t 2016, and James Comey is locked away in his basement, rooting for Harris.
