I was reading bschak's great diary series on cartograms of Congressional Districts (check it out, here), and a discussion ensured on how to change Illinois' district boundaries' around to elect more Democrats.
Given Illinois' heavily Democratic nature, it seems beyond common sense that one could draw more districts that voted for Kerry (even though his performance downstate was ABYSMAL, losing normally Democratic counties like Macoupin and Montgomery). So I decided to take a look, crunch some population numbers, do some good ol' packing and cracking (and placing multiple incumbents into the same district).
So the results? I got 11 districts that voted for Kerry, with 2 more Bush-voting districts that plausibly electing Democrats (one being Melissa Bean). This includes 4 majority-minority districts, represented by Bobby Rush, Danny Davis, Luis Gutierrez, and Jesse Jackson Jr.
Maps and more, after the flip.
One word of note - Illinois does not have a district residency requirement, meaning one could technically live in East St. Louis and run for a Chicago-based seat. If we remember the Duckworth-living-in-Bean's-district thing, we see it does happen, just not to that great of a magnitude.
I approached this problem in 2 parts: downstate and then Chicagoland. Downstate Illinois is losing population rather quickly, and has Democratic pockets in a generally Republican environment, while Chicagoland is the opposite: a Democratic area with some areas of Republican strength.
Illinois' map currently looks like this, electing 10 Democrats and 9 Republicans.
Chicagoland looks like this:
10 Districts voted for Kerry, 9 voted for Bush; Melissa Bean in the 8th has a district that voted for Bush, while Mark S Kirk of the 10th comes from a district that voted for Kerry.
So the new Illinois map would look like this:
Most counties are kept together downstate, and in Chicagoland, most townships are kept together.
A district-by-district analysis, Downstate:
District 1 (the old 12th), Jerry Costello(D):
This district (the southern one in green) remains mostly the same, downstate centered around Metro-East and St. Clair County running south to Cairo; the only exception is Alton in Madison County is removed. Kerry defeated Bush by about 10,000 votes here, about 51.3% to 48.0% (Madison County numbers unverified). This is a weakening of Costello's current district (which was about 52-47), but since Costello is strong enough to had been unopposed, he should be fine. Bonus: Republican John Shimkus' home in Collinsville is in this district, but is close enough to the redrawn 19th for him to make a strong case in running there.
District 2 (the old 19th), John Shimkus(R):
This district (the massive pink expanse downstate) remains mostly constant, but is readjusted to take in more Republicans (classic packing move); consequently, Bush defeated Kerry here by about 100,000 votes, about 69.3% to 30.0% (again with some unverified numbers). This district runs from Little Egypt up to areas around Decatur, and is sadly probably too Republican for conservative Dem (and former Representative) David Phelps to make a comeback after being redistricted out in 2002.
District 3 (the old 17th), Phil Hare(D):
This district (the leftmost orange) reverts to its pre-2002 boundaries, losing its arm that curves from the Quad Cities down to Decatur and Springfield and recentered around Rock Island and Dem-leaning Whiteside County. Still slightly Democratic (Kerry beats Bush here about 49.7% to 49.6%), Hare's ability to hold here may be questionable, but this area is historically Dem-leaning, and like I said earlier, Kerry really stank downstate. One major change is Peoria County (and Republican Ray LaHood) is moved into this district.
District 4 (the old 15th), Tim Johnson(R):
This district (the yellow snaking one) is from a special request by Kossack IHateBush.. Tim Johnson's home in Urbana remains here (we wouldn't want to waste those wonderful student votes at the U of I!) The district then snakes across Central Illinois, incorporating Bloomington, Normal, Decatur, and Springfield, before arriving in Metro-East and taking in Dem-leaning Alton in Madison County. A Democrat should be able to win here, even though this district still leans slightly Republican (52.3% to 48.0% for Bush, overestimating Republican performance in some counties).
asideNamely, Macon, Sangamon, and McLean, since Decatur, Springfield, and Bloomington-Normal would be more Democratic than the overall county suggests. For example, using the method used to calculate the presidential vote in these counties, the parts of Champaign County in the district would have given Kerry a 1,100 vote margin, when in reality they gave Kerry a 10,000 vote margin. This is becuase the townships of Champaign County in the district are MUCH more Democratic than the county as a whole. This couldn't be applied to Decatur, Springfield, and Bloomington becuase I couldn't find township-level (or precinct-level) data.end aside
District 5 (the old 18th), Ray LaHood(R):
Since most of the Democratic votes in Central Illinois are packed into the 4th, this district (the large blue one in the middle) picks up the remainder. Ray LaHood's Peoria home is actually in the 4th, but running here wouldn't be unappealing, given that Kerry scored a low 37.8% to Bush's 61.4%, even though this underestimates Republican strength in Sangamon and McLean Counties (read the aside, if you'd like). Most of LaHood's base is actually also not here, in the 6th.
District 6 (the old 14th), Dennis Hastert(R):
This district (the green one, top left), is slightly Republican leaning, and rips apart the base of not one, not two, not three, but FOUR current Republican Congressmen: Hastert, 16th District Rep. Don Manzullo, 11th District Rep. Jerry Weller, and Ray LaHood. Voting for Bush about 57.0% to 42.2%, this district takes parts of each of the 4 Congressmen's districts: Manzullo in Stephenson and Jo Daviess County and resides in Ogle County; Hastert has DeKalb and resides in Kendall County; Weller lives in Grundy County and used to have LaSalle County; LaHood has Tazewell County currently.
District 7 (the old 16th), Don Manzullo(R):
While Don Manzullo would not live in this district (yellow, north central), the core of his former district in Rockford is now here. While Rockford is roughly 50-50 (Bush won Winnebago County 50-49), this district also takes in the more Republican parts of Kane County and all of McHenry (taking pressure off Melissa Bean), meaning Bush defeated Kerry about 56.1% to 43.1% (DeKalb numbers not to township level).
So Downstate Illinois is currently 5-2 R, but concievably could be 4-3 R. I'll discuss Chicagoland here tommorow (before this diary gets prohibitively long.)
If you want to see the data file I used, email me.