In my first
diary on the Democratic Perfect Storm I briefly reviewed what happened in 1994. In my second
diary on this subject I reviewed the indicators that show 2006 is the Democratic Perfect Storm. My third
diary dealt with some of my personal experiences in politics and the lessons I learned from them and how they relate to the 2006 Perfect Storm.
Previously, I presented arguments for pushing three Senate races from the second tier into the first. Now I want to give a more detailed look at the Democratic attempt to reclaim Congress this year. In this diary I profile Jack Carter-NV, one of three most important Senate races for the Democrats in a year of the Perfect Storm. My next two diaries will deal with Virginia and Arizona Senate races.
How can we win if we don't fight those fights worth fighting?
Nevada is one of the most purple states in the nation.
Nevada voter registration numbers as of February 2006 show 479,789 (40%) Democrats registered and 474,103 (39.75%) Republicans with 184,805 (15.5%) Non-Partisan and 55,587 (4.5%) minor party registration. This reflects a positive change for Democrats since February 2005 when there were 442,457 (40%) registered Democrats, 444,487 (40.25%) registered Republicans, 166,685 (15%) Non-Partisan, and 47,848 (4.25%) minor party registrations. In 2000, the last time Republican Senator Ensign faced Nevada voters there were only 372,889 (41.5%) registered Democrats, 374,196 (41.75%) Republicans, 125,564 (14%) Non-Partisan, and 25,698 (2.9%) minor party registrations.
In 1998, Republican John Ensign ran for Senate spending $3.5 million receiving just over 48% of the vote. He was beat by now Minority Leader Harry Reid who in 2004 was re-elected with 61% of the vote while Kerry received 48% of the vote. In 2000, Ensign tried again, building on the $3.5 million he had previously spent, he spent another $5.5 million while his late starting Democratic opponent only spent $2.5 million, $1 million of it his own money. George Bush won the state with just under 50% of the vote and Ensign took 55% of the vote. This repeats the pattern set by Republican Senator Smith from OR and Republican Senator Thune from SD who both lost their first race for Senate then ran for the other Senate seat at the next election and won.
In addition to Democratic Senator Harry Reid, Nevada is represented in Congress by Democrat Representative Shelly Berkley NV-01. Nevada's other 2 Congressional districts are held by Republicans. Democrats control the state house with an overwhelming majority and are within 2 seats of controlling the state senate.
Nevada may be ground zero for the 2006 Democratic Perfect Storm. Nevada has a large number of open state seats and an open Congressional district. Nevada Democrats have fielded an impressive field of candidates in all races. The Republican incumbent in Nevada's 2nd Congressional district is running for governor and Democrat Jill Derby, a Regent for the University and Community College System of Nevada, has already raised $250,000 to compete for the open seat and has been endorsed by Montana Governor Schweitzer. One of the Democratic challengers in the 3rd district is Tessa Hafen, a former press secretary and senior advisor to Senator Harry Reid and a finalist in Senator Russ Feingold`s Progressive Patriot`s Fund. The Republican incumbent in this district only received 55% in 2004 so is very vulnerable. In addition, Nevada Democrats are fighting for a number of open state offices. The race for Governor is very close with the January Rasmussen poll showing Democrats within 5 points of their Republican opponent. The Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, State Treasurer, State Controller, and Attorney General seats are all open. All of these races add up to a very vigorous Democratic Get Out the Vote effort that is so vital in midterm elections.
MrLiberal writes The Case for Jack Carter (Nevada's next US Senator) outlining many good points in Jack Carter's candidacy at the beginning of his campaign that are still valid.
Jack Carter, the son of President Carter and First Lady Rosalynn Carter, stepped up to run for Senate after conducting a listening tour of Nevada. As the son of two of the most famous living Democrats Jack is a kind of political rock star. Given that his parents are two of the most respected Americans in the world it is not surprising that his announcement of candidacy received worldwide coverage. His announcement event in Carson City was attended by 350 people in contrast to the 50 to 100 people who attended the incumbent Senator's event who appear to have been mainly Republican political operatives and candidates. Apparently it was a shaky start for Ensign, his campaign sent out the wrong address for his announcement, transposing two digits in the address. Sarah Carter, Jack's daughter, wrote a diary on her father running and later one covering his announcement. There is a vast reservoir of goodwill for President Carter and his wife. When President Carter posted on DailyKos the love, respect, and admiration for him was apparent. As often happens much of this goodwill is extended to other members of the family.
MrLiberal's diary, In Which I Spend a Day With the Carters (and much more), recounts his day spent with Jack and family and includes a Q&A with both Jack and President Carter.
Jack may be a first time candidate but he has ample experience campaigning for his father.
From The Hill:
"He is [a] very impressive, responsible and publicly spirited person, who I think would make an excellent senator," former Vice President Walter Mondale said. Mondale first met Jack Carter during the 1976 campaign, when Carter was in his 20s. "He was around his father through all the campaigns," Mondale added. "I remember working the campaigns with him and being very impressed by him."
In this diary, Sarah Carter gives us a glimpse of an important aspect of the Jack Carter strategy to win and gives us a report on a day on the campaign trail through the rural areas of Nevada. This is an incredibly important strategy since Ensign does very well in rural areas of Nevada. However, the March 15 Pew Poll should give Republicans everywhere pause. Given that this election will be a referendum on Bush, Republicans are hoping to turn out their base to offset voter anger. Pew shows that one of the more Republican groups, the rural voter, is as dissatisfied now as the national average. According to Pew only 36% in rural areas now approve of Bush and his support among evangelicals is down to 54%. By targeting the rural areas of Nevada, Jack is able to show that he is one of them. He is someone who knows about hard work and growing up in a small rural community. In fact, Gallup, as reported by Pew shows that only Republicans are satisfied with the state of the nation. The overall satisfaction with the state of the nation has dropped below 30% for the 1st time in Bush's term and it is Republicans who are propping up the numbers for Bush. Only 9% of Democrats and 23% of Independents are satisfied which opens the door in states like Nevada where voter registration is nearly split between the parties and the battle will be over the Independent voter. In fact, according to Pew more Independents now say they want their incumbent out than did in the 1994 elections. Strikingly, more and more, Independents are resembling Democrats in these poll numbers as Bush bottoms out. Locally Nevada Democrats report:
Reports on the county convention also show Republicans are staying home this election year. Only about 130 Clark County Republicans attended their county convention on Saturday, according to news reports. In 2002, that last comparable election year, at least 345 Republicans attended their Clark County convention, according to reports.
More than 500 Democrats attended the Clark County Convention on March 11, up from about 200 attendees in 2002.
If Democrats are to regain control of the Senate this year the playing field needs to be expanded to all quality Democratic candidates challenging vulnerable Republican held seats.
From:
Gary C. Jacobson, "A House and Senate Divided: The Clinton Legacy and the Congressional Elections of 2000," Political Science Quarterly 116 (Spring 2001): 5-27
We are given several important insights on Senate campaigns vs. House campaigns.
Turnover is typically higher in Senate elections. On average, Senate incumbents are about three times as likely to lose as House incumbents (my emphasis).[17] Senators are much more likely than representatives to face stiff competition and to lose elections, because a much larger proportion of states than districts have a sufficiently close partisan balance to make them winnable by either party. During the past two decades, no fewer than forty of the fifty states have been served by senators from both parties. Of the remaining ten states, only one (Hawaii) did not elect at least one governor of the party opposite of their senators. Brighter electoral prospects attract a larger number of the talented, well-funded challengers who are essential for competitive contests. As a result, in the average election year about half the Senate races are hotly contested compared with less than 15 percent of the House races.[18] The 2000 election was fairly typical in this regard, with ten seats won with less than 55 percent of the major party vote and sixteen seats won with less than 60 percent.
Senators run on a six-year rather than a two-year cycle, which can also lead to different patterns of competition in House and Senate races. When a strong partisan tide produces large House and Senate gains for a party, the representatives who ride in on the surge are in danger two years later. The senators serve six years before they face the prospect of reelection under less favorable circumstances than when they were first elected. For example, Republicans had an excellent year in 1980, picking up thirty-four House seats and twelve Senate seats, and winning a majority in the upper chamber for the first time since 1952. They quickly gave up most of their House gains, losing twenty-six seats after only two years; but they did not suffer significant losses in the Senate until 1986, when the class of 1980 faced its first test and the Democrats picked up eight seats to regain majority status.
It is very clear that when Democrats have quality candidates and support those candidates Democrats win.
Quotes from The Hill:
Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, who is friends with Ensign, is one of many Democrats backing Carter's possible candidacy.
"Of course I will support the campaign," Reid told The Hill. "I like him. I love his father." Reid and Ensign enjoy a good working relationship, said Reid spokeswoman Tessa Hafen. "They also understand that they are members of opposite parties."
Members of Reid's staff have met several times with Carter, as have some of Reid's fundraisers, Hinkley said.
Ben Tulchin, a Democratic pollster at Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, said Carter could benefit from Nevada's huge influx of newcomers, which includes a large Hispanic community. Las Vegas is the fastest growing city in the country. Democrats in recent cycles have voiced hopes of defeating Republican Rep. Jon Porter in the marginally GOP 3rd District. Tulchin added that President Carter's standing in Southwestern states is better than that of President Clinton.
In an article supporting a Western Super Tuesday, Judy Cresanta, president of the Nevada Policy Research Institute points out the low cost of television advertising in states like Nevada which have few media markets compared to larger states which may have many more. With just over 1 million voters the Nevada Senate race is a bargain. Congressional districts have an average of 375,000 registered voters making this Senate seat the equivalent of 3 CD seats. Of the states that have the same or fewer Congressional seats with Senate races only Vermont, Montana, and Rhode Island are considered competitive. Two of our most competitive Senate seats OH and PA have six times the population of Nevada so are much more costly.
Jack's opponent, John Ensign, is further to the right than most Nevadans. The Las Vegas Gleaner reports:
It is of course delightful to see Darth Slanker and the rest of Ensign's campaign team officially kick off their man's re-election bid by planting a big wet one on the president and showing a willingness to mix it up over the Iraq invasion and occupation. We hear so much these days about congressional Republicans wanting to distance themselves from Bush and localize elections so they don't have to talk about a war that the majority of Americans now realize was a big fat mistake. How refreshing, then, to see Ensign boldly embrace the president's policies and tie his own political fortunes so closely to the public's disenchantment with Bush and his optional war. Democratic challenger Jack Carter points out that Ensign has voted in lockstep with Bush about 96 percent of the time over the years, and it's good to know that Ensign has no intention of running away from that record.
Is embracing Bush a wise strategy for Ensign. According to the March Survey USA Presidential tracking poll it doesn't seem like a good idea. 60% of Nevadans disapprove of Bush and only 37% approve. Only four other states that voted for Bush in 2004 have higher disapproval ratings.
At RGJ Anjeanette Damon
tells us:
Ensign, a veterinarian and a devout Christian, also said the country needs to invest more in math and science education. Asked whether he thought creationism and intelligent design should be part of the public school curriculum, he said: "Here's what I believe, being a scientist, I believe we ought to teach good science and part of teaching good science is being able to question everything. And right now you can't question anything. Keep religion out of our schools like that, we don't need that. But we ought to have debate on the fossil record, the problems in the fossil record and different theories of the universe and how old it is."
This may explain why Ensign has found it so difficult to improve on his 2000 election numbers. In the March Survey USA tracking poll he is at 52% approval, 66 out of 100 Senators.
Jack Carter's run for Senator in Nevada is worthy of our support. He is a quality candidate running against a vulnerable far right Republican in a purple state ready to turn blue. If Democrats hope to win back control of the Senate the Nevada race must be in the equation. 2006 is the Democratic Perfect Storm and Democrats must compete everywhere in order to fully benefit from this opportunity. Democrats may expect that things will get worse in the final years of the Bush Presidency and Democrats may be hoping that in 2008 a charismatic progressive leader will emerge to win the Democratic nomination. Let's not wait until then. March 31st is the last day of the quarter for FEC reports and our candidates need funds before then. If you would like to support Jack Carter, you can go to his website or go to my ActBlue page.
Links:
My diary on Tier 2 Senate campaigns
My diary on the 1994 election
My diary on the numbers supporting the Democratic Perfect Storm
My diary on personal election experience
President Carter's diary
Sarah's diary letting us know her dad is running
Sarah Carter's diary on Jack's rural strategy
Sarah's diary on Jack's announcement
Sarah's diary on Jack's op ed about the illegal wiretapping
MrLiberal's diary on his day with the Carters
Mr. Liberal's diary arguing that Jack Carter can win
Article on Nevada Democratic County convention
Las Vegas Gleaner blog covering Nevada politics
DesertBeacon blog covering Nevada politics