Teacherken's recc'ed diary has me thinking...
This primary dogfight has been an unqualified good from beginning to end. All Democrat (and some Republican & Indie) votes cast, to date, have been very significant.
And the contests go on... just as meaningful as ever.
I made this comment in teacherken's diary:
Well said (3+ / 0-)
I agree with every point you made, Ken. I have not wavered from my opinion that Clinton should be allowed to bow out on her own terms. Meaningful elections, primaries, or caucuses are all good.
by rustydude on Sun Mar 16, 2008 at 10:09:55 AM PDT
However, to date, I have not made up my mind which is better... a battle all the way to the Convention or a candidate bowing out in June.
The conventional wisdom, no pun intended, is that this race must be decided before the Convention or it's going to be ugly and damaging to the Democratic nominee's chances in November.
But I'm asking now... will it be such a bad thing to have this go to the convention? Is the CW wrong?
First, let's make some assumptions. Let's assume Obama has a pledged delegate lead over 100.
Second, let's assume the FL and MI delegates are seated either through re-vote or by some agreement or by a June credentials committee meeting.
Third, let's assume that for the most part the Supers are split fairly evenly, give or take 20 or 30 or 40.
Given this, the Wednesday 1st Ballot Roll Call will be suspenseful. There will be plenty of angst on both sides to see that all of the pledged delegates really do vote for their pledged candidate, and that all the endorsed Supers really do vote for the candidate they previously endorsed. But over all, assuming Obama has a 100 delegate lead, this will very likely be a done deal.
So... how could Hillary fighting to the finish be a good thing? After all, I'm sure Dean Broder would be predicting the imminent demise of the Democratic Party if it should come to this. He is the King of Conventional Wisdom.
Since we already know that Broder is often wrong, we also know that the CW is also often wrong.
Let me propose some reasons why a battle right down to the Convention might be a good thing.
- The television ratings are going to be through the roof. Two or three times as many people will be watching two or three times as much coverage of the Dem Convention than the old Geezer McCain Convention.
- Hillary fighting to the end will signal the end of an era. More than anything else, she and Bill will be singing their swan song. It will be a signal to America that the Democratic Party has turned the page on the entire DLC era. Just like Kennedy in 1980, there will be no 2nd try for Hillary... 4, 8 or 12 years from now. Obama says it's time for change, and Hillary fighting to the end, and losing, will be an exclamation point on Obama's fundamental message.
- It will be Obama's finest hour. I'm not sure the remaining Hillary fans here (those not on strike) will buy this but I truly believe we have not had such a gracious candidate as Barack Obama, in many years. When it comes time to say "The Speech", he will be as gracious to Hillary as anyone ever could be. Think of Gore's concession speech in December, 2000. This one will be even better than Gore's great speech. And people will think highly of Obama for the way he treats Hillary at this Convention.
- An electoral fight to the finish will put a new glean on the Party. We will have put "Democracy" back into the Democratic Party.
These reasons will surely be balanced against some negatives. I won't go into all these because the Lords & Ladies of Conventional Wisdom have already spelled all of these out. But for those who think Hillary will scorch the earth at the convention, I don't buy it. Once she loses, she'll give her own great speech. Will it be a repeat of Kennedy/Carter in 1980? I don't know for sure, but my gut says "no".
And, no, no, no, no, no! We're not going to have a brokered convention. The Supers and Pledged and At Large delegates will vote on the first ballot and since there are very very very few 3rd candidate delegates pledged, there will be a majority victor on 1st ballot. I'm presuming that will be Obama, especially if he wins the Pledged count by 100 or more.
I know many Democrats have a doom & gloom view. If the battle goes to the Convention, then the sky will be falling. McCain will surely win 49 states in that scenario. Another 4 years of Republican rule! Yikes!
I'm gonna chill. I think we'll be just fine.