So far today we've reached a total of eight no-to-yes votes switches: from earlier today Kucinich, Markey, Gordon, and Boccieri; throughout the day they've been joined by Scott Murphy, Alan Boyd, and Suzanne Kosmas, and most recently, Harry Mitchell.
Previously undecideds who are now saying yes: Brad Ellsworth who had been a Stupak holdout, but has become convinced that the Senate bill is sufficiently destructive of women's rights; Mary Jo Kilroy; Bob Etheridge; Tom Perriello; Joe Courtney; and Dina Titus.
Definite nos: Heath Shuler; Jason Altmire; the lone Republican Ahn "Joseph" Cao (who had earlier in the day been rumored as a potential yes vote).
Meanwhile, The Hill's Jeffrey Young tweeted:
Pro-choice female Dems are shuttling in and out of Pelosi’s office and they won’t say why.
Which, given the speculation about a potential deal today isn't encouraging. Here's what dday has in his latest:
My running count shows 201 [now 202 with Mitchell, updated since dday wrote this] yes, but I’m adding Rahall and Carney to the Stupak-curious bloc and making them lean no votes. So it’s 201-209, but with leaners? 207-214. If a Stupak deal is struck, passage looks secure, unless the Pro-Choice caucus revolts. If not, Pelosi will have to draw an inside straight. It’s very tight right now.
UPDATE: If you look hard at the numbers, you can see why Pelosi is talking with Stupak and pro-choice women. With 214 No or lean No votes (including the Stupak bloc), Pelosi would have to prevent Dahlkemper and Kaptur from joining them. Then she would need all the other uncommitted votes, save one. That means she would have to get everyone who voted yes last time, plus Jim Matheson or Harry Teague (and all the lean Yes votes who went No last time, like Brian Baird and John Tanner). It’s just not that plausible.
Stay tuned.
Update: Add Harry Teague to the nos.