This diary attempts to analyze, to explain, and is an appeal for help. The complexion of the country's leadership may well depend on the elections in Texas. Perhaps I can make the case.
The thesis:
Texas elections for US congress seats, and for State House and Senate seats, will matter not just to Texans, but the whole country, perhaps for a decade or more. It's Rick Perry, and his power base, donors, and where he wants to take us that we need to pay attention to.
The Texas Governor's race sets the tone in our state and may greatly influence the down-ballot races in an off-year election. Voters are not generally paying as much attention to others.
Texas will add 3 US Congressional seats, possibly 4. The outcomes of the state races matter because redistricting will be done by the Texas Legislature in the 2011-2012 session.
Let me share some thoughts, and see if you agree, or challenge my point of view.
This diary is an attempt at analysis, explanation, and an appeal for help. The complexion of the country's leadership may well depend on the elections in Texas. I ask your indulgence to follow my perhaps incomplete research, my not-all-filled-out logic and the conlusions I draw from them. Perhaps I can make the case to help head off a real disaster.
The thesis:
Texas elections for US congress seats, and for State House and Senate seats, matter not just to Texans, but the whole country, perhaps for a decade or more. One of the major actors, Rick Perry, and his larger aspirations, are of concern. It's his power base, donors, and where he wants to take us that we need to pay attention to.
Some corollaries:
The Texas Governor's race sets the tone in our state for an off-year election, and voters are tuned in to this race. Folks are generally not paying as much attention to the state House and Senate races, nor to the US Congressional races. But the governor's race may greatly influence the down-ballot races. Turnout of loyal supporters is the key.
After the 2010 Census, Texas will add 3 US Congressional seats, possibly 4, depending on how the math comes out. The outcomes of these state races will matter because of redistricting which will be done by the Texas Legislature in the 2011-2012 session.
Let me share some thoughts, and see if you agree, or challenge my point of view.
Let us take Texas back from these GOP "leaders" who will take us to ruin, perhaps even more than W did, if given the chance. Let's not give them the chance.
Please send Texas Governor Democratic candidate Bill White some love:
http://www.billwhitefortexas
H/T to Libby Shaw whose diary on the TX-Gov from last night I didn't see:
http://www.dailykos.com/...
White is doig well against Perry in the latest poll.
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2010 Demographic Snapshot
The population of Texas is cuurently estimated as follows:
Total Anglo Black Hispanic Other
25,373,947 11,441,595 2,925,751 9,847,852 1,158,749
Metropolitan** 22,228,152 9,562,044 2,646,725 8,889,731 1,129,652
NonMetropolitan 3,145,795 1,879,551 279,026 958,121 29,097
So, Texans are 8.3 % of the U.S. population, or one-twelfth. Second only to California.
The state is 87% urban/suburban, and 13% rural/small town.
11.5% Black, 38.8% Hispanic, 4.5% Other, 45.1% White.
Soiurce: State of Texas http://www.dshs.state.tx.us/...
Texas' Current US Congressional Delegation
(see Open Secrets: http://www.opensecrets.org/...
There are now 32 representatives, 20-R and 12-D, as follows:
District 01
Gohmert, Louis B Jr (R)
District 02
Poe, Ted (R)
District 03
Johnson, Sam (R)
District 04
Hall, Ralph M (R)
District 05
Hensarling, Jeb (R)
District 06
Barton, Joe (R)
District 07
Culberson, John (R)
District 08
Brady, Kevin (R)
District 09
Green, Al (D)
District 10
McCaul, Michael (R)
District 11
Conaway, Mike (R)
District 12
Granger, Kay (R)
District 13
Thornberry, Mac (R)
District 14
Paul, Ron (R)
District 15
Hinojosa, Ruben (D)
District 16
Reyes, Silvestre (D)
District 17
Edwards, Chet (D)
District 18
Jackson Lee, Sheila (D)
District 19
Neugebauer, Randy (R)
District 20
Gonzalez, Charlie A (D)
District 21
Smith, Lamar (R)
District 22
Olson, Pete (R)
District 23
Rodriguez, Ciro D (D)
District 24
Marchant, Kenny (R)
District 25
Doggett, Lloyd (D)
District 26
Burgess, Michael (R)
District 27
Ortiz, Solomon P (D)
District 28
Cuellar, Henry (D)
District 29
Green, Gene (D)
District 30
Johnson, Eddie Bernice (D)
District 31
Carter, John (R)
District 32
Sessions, Pete (R)
It's amazing how many Texas members of Congress we all know from this list, most of them Republicans, a few Democrats.
Here are the Dem. candidates for Congress from Texas. Note that there are only 25 candidates, that we are conceding to the GOP in 7 races.
http://www.txdemocrats.org/...
Look them over and offer help if you can. We all need it.
A Short History of the Texas Congressional Districts Map 2000 Census to 2010 Census
Here's the broad outline, with no doubt some details or dates not exact, but this should suffice for the big picture. A more detailed Fall 2004 analysis from the University of Oklahoma, with maps, is here: http://www.ou.edu/...
The folks above represent the districts drawn (RE-drawn) in 2003. After the 2001-2 session the Legislature and Governor were unable to agree on a map that the DOJ found acceptable, it was sent to a Federal District court to be drawn, and elections were held in 2002 based on that map. After the state Leg was further taken over by the GOP, including electing House Speaker Tom Craddick, and with the help of US Rep. Tom "Bug Man" DeLay and his TRMPAC (Texas Republican Majority PAC), the Leg went back and RE-DREW the boundaries in the 2002-3 session.
The Legislature must be called back in to session by the Governor after its statutory 140-day regular session, which is exactly what Perry did three times in 2003 to redraw the Congressional map.
Note the first sentence in the second paragraph of the OU study cited above: "The redistricting was legally unnecessary." You may remember the stories of the Texas state Legislators (the "Killer D's") who LEFT THE STATE twice, to Oklahoma and then to New Mexiso, in order to deny the GOP a quorum for this redistricting. Even after the second re-drawing, it took a legal challenge to re-re-re-draw (are you losing track yet?) two of the districts for the map to even be acceptable to the Bush DOJ. As Molly Ivins might say, "Boy, Howdy! Ain't we got fun? Texas politics - - best free entertainment on the planet!"
That redistricting was greatly beneficial to the GOP, Perry, and Bush, leaving some safe Dem. districts, but slicing the state up in some rather remarkable ways to leave the GOP with control of roughly 2/3 of the seats.
We all know the story of Tom DeLay, of his connections to Jack Abramoff (the "convicted felon", NOT the "disgraced lobbyist" as the newsy-folks have it too often), and how this came about and how it has played out. DeLay directly funded the takeover of the Texas leg, and thus this re-districting in which Perry had a direct hand. As an aside, DeLay still has state charges to answer for, since state election law clearly forbids corporate conttributions to candidates. We'll see if he dodges that one, too.
Down-Ballot Races and the Texas Legislature
The Leg meets every two years for a state Constitutionally-mandated 140-day period, only to be extended if the Governor calls additional extensions to the session. The Senate has 31 members, and the House has 150.
Current composition:
Senate:
19 Republicans and 12 Democrats
House:
77 Republicans and 73 Democrats
The Report of the Texas House Research Organization on the implications fnr redistricting of the 2010 Census findings for the state demographic shifts are descrbed here:
http://www.hro.house.state.tx.us/...
In the 2008 elections, the large urban areas (3/4 of the state's population) shifted dramatically to the Democrats: Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and other areas turned blue. We came literally within 21 votes in the Texas 105th House District (northwest Dallas Co.) of having a 75R-75D even split. Since then, after the re-count and final result in the SH 105th race (a Dem. loss), we had an initial 76R-74D split at the beginning of the 2008-2010 Legislative session. We have had one defection to the GOP by a blue dog state Rep in East Texas, leaving us with a 78R-72D split.
I worked hard to elect Democrat Carol Kent in my own 102nd district (also in Dallas Co.), and will do so again. (shameless plug for Carol: http://www.reelectcarolkent.com/ Her GOP opponent is Stefani Carter, the one who has been diaried here http://www.dailykos.com/... , having plagiarized from one of Obama's speeches, then denying it. Her own law firm has endorsed Carol Kent).
But, the composition of the Texas state House is critical not only to Texas, but to the country. We can not abide another four years of Rick Perry and his oil-housing-banking cronies running the state. Texas stands to have 3 or possibly 4 more representatives in the US House after re-districting, and that's why the state representative races are critical, and why the governorship race matters to having coattails to more and better Democrats. We must try to control the Texas House (and Senate, though it's a longer shot). And of course the Governorship. If not, we all lose, not just in Texas, but in the country.
NOW, who would you like to conduct said re-districting in Texas (with the effects it will have on the US House balance)? Should it be the Texas House GOP, such as was done last time (and re-re-re-done, I should say) by Tom DeLay and Texas House Speaker Tom Craddick? Or do we take back the Texas State House and exert real power over adding these 3 or 4 seats to the Texas Congressional delegation? And who would we like to occupy these added seats in Texas?
The 2010 Texas Governor's Race, and Why it Matters
With this background, let us recall the history of James Richard "Rick" Perry, (Texas A&M, Animal Science, 1972), currently Governor of Texas:
Perry served in the Texas House from 1984-1990, having switched from Democrat to Republican in 1989. He just beat Jim Hightower for Texas Agriculture Commissioner in 1990, the year Ann Richards was elected Governor of Texas. He served as Ag. Comm. eight years.
Elected Lieutenant Governor of Texas in 1998, he assumed office as governor in December 2000 when Governor George W. Bush resigned to become President of the United States. Perry was elected to two full terms in 2002 and 2006, and is now running for an unprecedented third full term.
...
Perry holds all records for Texas gubernatorial tenure, having broken both Allan Shivers' consecutive service record of 7 1/2 years in June 2008 and Bill Clements' total service record of eight years (over two non-consecutive terms) in December 2008. As a result, the Dallas Morning News reported in December 2008 that Perry has the distinction of being the only governor in modern Texas history to have appointed at least one person to every possible state office, board, or commission position which requires gubernatorial appointment (as well as to several elected offices to which the governor can appoint someone to fill an unexpired term, such as five of the nine current members of the Texas Supreme Court).
(more details here: http://en.wikipedia.org/...
Folks, Perry's been there TEN LONG YEARS, putting his stamp on every office the Governor can appoint, and helping elect those he can't. Yes, technically, the Lieutenant Governor actually has more power according to the state Constitution, but theis appointment power is where the Governor can really clean up. We can recall a few details like the cost of Perry's personal Texas Ranger security detail (even on overseas trips), the fire at the historic Governor's mansion and his now living in a $10,000 a month rental place, his lack of consideration for those on death row (see Cameron Todd Willingham), his support for Creationism, the Trans-Texas Corridor disaster, his ties to the housebuilder Perry (no relation) who has been one of his biggest donors, connections to petroleum and pharmaceutical interests, and on and on and on.
Let us also remember the current Texas Senator, Kay Bailey "perjury is such a trivial thing", Sparkle Pony Hutchison. After having served in to a third term, which she had said she would not do, she challenged Perry in the GOP primary, and was rather soundly defeated. I submit that she was the candidate of the Establishmment "sane wing" of the Texas GOP, and as we have all seen, Rick Perry is willing to say some pretty outrageous things to gin up support from the "crazy wing" ("secession", for one). I won't detail all his pandering. But think about it: the guy who is nuts won, and is trying to hold on to power in the second-most populous state, after a ten-year program to build a power base.
I'm not suggesting he is any more qualified than Sarah Palin, but he has been governor of Texas for TEN YEARS! He has a hell of a platform from which to launch in 2012 or 2016 (or both? Lots of bucks). I would like to hear some reasoned responses why this wouldn't be possible. Perry was W's hand-picked successor, when he left the governorship to be President. Just noting, Sarah didn't serve out her full term.
The Texas governor's race matters a lot, since it is what is getting the most attention in Texas - no one seems to care about the other races so much. OTOH, if White wins, I think there will be down-ballot coattails, which is important for state House representatives.
Perry claims he doesn't want to run for President, but can we believe him? Even if he doesn't, I submit he loves his position as power broker, and would love to have a say in the GOP Presidential candidates for the next couple of election cycles. Can we afford this? Do you want Rick Perry exercising that kind of control?
We have a governor's race here that is winnable, with support for Bill White against the execrable Rick Perry, hand-picked successor to George W. Bush for the Last TEN YEARS in Texas. This race will have important down-ballot consequences, not the least of which is the composition of the Texas state House.
"Texas doesn't need him and the USA sure doesn't", as Texan BlackSheep1 commented in a GBCW troll diary by an erstwhile Perry supporter who was skulking here.
http://www.dailykos.com/...
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And now a couple of rants:
I wlll start with a letter I received recently from a certain James Carville, asking me to donate to the DSCCC. I get a little irritated when I recall the support that was NOT forthcoming to Barbara Ann Radnofsky in 2006 to beat Kay Bailey "perjury is such a trivial thing" Hutchison. Barbara Ann Radnofsky is now running for state Attorney General, the position currently held by Greg Abbott. Please send BAR some love, too:
I get further irritated when Harry Reid comes to San Antonio in 2010 to raise funds for Texas Democratic candidates his own senatorial campaign, with a little lip service thrown in to being a team-player. Texas gets treated like an ATM, but no real support comes our way.
My e-mail response:
Mr. Carville:
With all respect, I will contribute to the DSCC when it gives a damn about Texas and our Senate races (see Barbara Ann Radnofsky, 2006) other than just to treat the state like an ATM.
Sen. Harry Reid recently visited San Antonio, but not so much to support Texas candidates (there is no Senate race in Texas this year), but to raise funds for his own Senate race.
With all due respect, the treatment of Texas has been short-sighted and will be at our own peril, both for the country and the party. We should look to where the growth is for the Democratic Party, not just to the states like Ohio and Illinois and New York that will lose Congressional seats.
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Further, there are two Texas elected representatives who it behooves the NATIONAL Democratic Party to work hard and commit resources to beat: Senator "Box Turtle" "Big" John Cornyn, who is the GOP Senate Campaign Committee Chair, and Rep. Pete the Streak "Taliban" Sessions (TX-32, my congresscritter), who is the GOP Congressional Campaign Committee Chair.
If it's not clear, these guys travel around the country raising money and dispensing it to field Republican candidates to beat Democrats wherever they can. It specifically means that Pete spends a LOT more time on that than representing his district; likewise for John and the state of Texas. Do you want these Texans controlling these tow important positions in the GOP, or making the Party find relacements?
Now, Pete is up for re-election to his EIGHTH term in 2010, though we can't do much about Cornyn until 2014 (*sigh* oh, well...). His opponent is Grier Raggio: http://www.raggioforcongress.com Help is appreciated.
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Let us take Texas back from these GOP "leaders" who will take us to ruin, perhaps even more than W did, if given the chance. Let's not give them the chance.
Please send Bill White some love:
http://www.billwhitefortexas.com
If you can't pitch in and help turn Texas blue, then get out of the way and we'll do it ourselves, sooner or later. But we won't quit till it's done.
Oh, and Peace.