Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos. 9/25-9/26. Likely Voters. MoE 4.9% (2/25 results)
Steve Pearce (R) 48 (43)
Rep. Harry Teague (D) 47 (41)
When PPP last polled this, back in February, Republican Steve Pearce had a very slim lead in his attempt to regain his old seat, lost to Teague just two years ago. In a poll conducted for the Albuquerque Journal at the end of August, Teague led 45-42, and had a similar margin with Independent voters, 37-33. He doesn't have that edge in PPP's poll, garnering 36 percent to Pearce's 58. But he maintains a pretty decent approval rating at 47 percent, up three points since PPP's February poll, and internal polling from a few weeks ago had him up 51-44.
Teague can still definitely take this one, but it's going to take a very good GOTV effort. McCain took this district by just one point, 50-49, and Teague is getting 21 percent of those McCain voters--an incredibly high percentage.