From PPP
Gingrich 22
Paul 21
Romney 16
Bachman 11
Perry 9
Santorum 8
Hunstman 5
PPP notes "Gingrich has dropped 5 points in the last week and he's also seen a significant decline in his favorability numbers. Last week he was at +31 (62/31) and he's now dropped 19 points to +12 (52/40). The attacks on him appear to be taking a heavy toll- his support with Tea Party voters has declined from 35% to 24%."
It is worth remembering that the race Iowa voters are seeing right now is not the one you and I see. In Iowa TV's are full of nothing but adds. Perry in particular has gone after Gingrich, and it appears the attacks are really hurting Gingrich.
If this poll is right, and this is the first showing a close race (though the University of Iowa Poll released yesterday started on November 24th) than it will turn create another dynamic: one that suggests Gingrich is collapsing.
In 2007 I wrote a diary noting how often the leader in Iowa and New Hampshire a month out lose their leads. At this point in 2004 Dean lead by 8 (he lost by 16) and Obama and Clinton were tied. In all, in 4 of the last 9 contested Iowa caucuses the leader went on to lose Iowa. Moreover, in only half of the races did the leader in New Hampshire one month out win new Hampshire.
There is a lifetime left in Iowa, and national polling matters very little right now.
If this poll is confirmed, utter chaos is about to break out in the GOP.