For the second time this week, a poll has come out that destroys the idea that Gingrich is inevtiable. There have been three polls this week in Iowa: from Rasmussen, PPP, and Insider Advantage.
From Rasumussen
Gingrich 20 (22 in PPP, 27 Insider Advantage)
Romney 23 (16 PP, 12 Insider Adbantage)
Paul 18 (21 PPP, 17 Insider Advantage)
Perry 10 (9 in PPP, 13 Insider Advantage)
Bachmann 9 (10 in both PPP, Insider Advantage)
Santorum 6 (7 PPP, 5 Insider Adbantage)
Huntsman 5 (5 in PPP, 4 Insider Advantage)
Here is the average. In parenthesis is the movement from polls taken the previous week:
Gingrich 23 (-8.33)
Romney 17 (-2)
Paul 18.66 (+4)
Perry 10.67 (+1.67)
Bachman 10 (+1.67)
Santorum 7 (+2.33)
Hunstman 4.67 (+3.33)
So Gingrich falls, but so does Romney. Paul sees movement, as does Hunstman (who is showing movement in New Hampshire as well).
This is a wide open race. In 2007 I wrote a diary noting how often the leader in Iowa and New Hampshire a month out lose their leads. At this point in 2004 Dean lead by 8 (he lost by 16) and Obama and Clinton were tied. In all, in 4 of the last 9 contested Iowa caucuses the leader went on to lose Iowa. Moreover, in only half of the races did the leader in New Hampshire one month out win new Hampshire.
Interstingly, the latest New Hampshire Poll from Suffolk showed Gingrich's favorables mathcing his unfavorables. PPP also noted a sharp rise in Ginrgich's unfavorables in Iowa.