For any who may be reading this series for the first time: this is a thought experiment where I try to see what would happen if the size of the House of Representatives were doubled to 870 members from 435. And yes, I know Republicans have the trifecta in both of these states. This entire series is theoretical to begin with, gimme a break.
So, the South Carolina Primary is today, and Wisconsinites this week turned in at least 1,000,000 million signatures to recall Republican Governor Scott Walker. So, since I had maps drawn and ready, I thought I'd churn out a diary real quick. Fun fact; I lived in South Carolina, Anderson, from the ages of 3 to 9.
Links to adopted plans in South Carolina and Wisconsin
Previous Doubling Diaries: LA, MS, UT, NV, OK, AK, WY, IN, NJ, VA, OH, HI, ND, SD, NM, VT, DE and ID
South Carolina
South Carolina gets 13 districts.
The races included in the "Dem Average" are:
- President 2008
- All statewide races 2010 (Governor, LG, AG, SoS, Treas., etc.)
Downstate
2
VAP: 45.7 White, 50.2 Black
60 Obama, 58 Dem
Open; black majority. North central, centered in Sumter. Safe D, black pickup
3
VAP: 44.4 W, 50.2 B
62.7 Obama, 60.5 Dem
Black majority. South central, centered in Orangeburg, Hendersonville, Walterboro (part), Beaufort (part) and into the minority-heavy areas of Charleston. Tim Scott (R-Charleston), one of two black Republicans in the House, may live in this district, he also may live in the 4th. But he would definitely not run here. Safe D, black pickup
4
VAP: 60.3 W, 30.6 B, 5.7 Hispanic
53.3 Obama, 49.2 Dem
As I said, Tim Scott either lives in this district or in the 3rd. I don't think he'd want to run here either, though. This district is based in Charleston, snaking up the coast a little to grab Democratic voters. Obama did overperform a little in South Carolina, and Vincent Sheheen also performed better than expected, so they may skew the numbers a little. But if South Carolina Democrats run a good candidate and a great campaign, they could and would win this district. Lean D
5
VAP: 80.9 W, 10 B, 6.9 H
39.7 Obama, 32.7 Dem
Yet another district containing part of Charleston, and another district where Tim Scott's home may be. But unlike the 3rd and 4th, Scott would want to run here. It's a coastal, vacation district, taking in both Hilton Head Island and part of Myrtle Beach. It's 2 points more Republican than the current SC-01. Safe R
6
VAP: 75.8 W, 16.9 B
37 Obama, 33.8 Dem
Open. No major population centers, inner coast and Charleston suburbs. Safe R
11
VAP: 71.3 W, 21.5 B
39.8 Obama, 37.8 Dem
Joe "You Lie!" Wilson (R-West Columbia) lives here. Aiken, McCormick and part of the capital of Columbia. Wilson gets 5 points safer. Safe R
Upstate
1
VAP: 40.7 W, 51.2 B
69.1 Obama, 67.2 Dem
Jim Clyburn, Assistant Minority Leader of the House (D-Columbia) lives here. He gets the safest of the Democratic seats in South Carolina, out of a) respect for his position and seniority, and b) because he'd probably complain the most about losing black voters (going from 57% to 51%) Other than the City of Columbia, Clyburn doesn't represent anyone in this district, but that won't matter, since 86.5% of the district is in Richland County. Safe D
7
VAP: 63.5 W, 31.3 B
45.5 Obama, 44 Dem
Mick Mulvaney (R-Indian Land) lives here. Former Budget Committee Chair John Spratt's home of York is not located in this district, but it's very similar to the current 5th, so if Spratt wanted a comeback, he could give it a try. Tossup with Spratt, Likely R otherwise
8
VAP: 54.8 W, 35.3 B, 7.5 H
54 Obama, 51.9 Dem
I'm pretty happy with this district. It takes in the homes of Trey Gowdy (R-Spartanburg) and Jeff Duncan (R-Laurens), and Obama won it by 10 points! I hope this district would inspire SC Democrats to organize on the heels of their better-than-expected performance in 2010. Assuming neither Gowdy or Duncan run here (which I would bet money they don't), this is Lean D
9
VAP: 80.5 W, 12.2 B
32.7 Obama, 30.6 Dem
Open; either Gowdy or Duncan could conceivably run here instead of in the 8th. Safe R
10
VAP: 83.2 W, 9.4 B
30.3 Obama, 27.4 Dem
Open; I think this is where Trey Gowdy runs instead of the 8th or 9th. And he'd be just fine Safe R
12
VAP: 81.4 W, 13.3 B
29.7 Obama, 30 Dem
Open; I think Jeff Duncan runs here. Worst Obama percentage in the state. Again, Safe R
13
VAP: 84.3 W, 11 B
30.8 Obama, 30.9 Dem
Open; my poor former home of Anderson. The whitest district in the state. Safe R
.
.
.
.
.
So, from a 1-5 map that we currently have, to a 1-6 proposed map in reality. In my series, where reality holds no sway, we get a 5-8 map! (Assuming John Spratt does not run, which I don't think he will.) This includes 2 new Black Democrats, with 3 districts where blacks make up 30% of the voters. So, including Tim Scott, this has the potential for 4 black representatives in the next House.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin gets 16 districts.
Races included in the Dem average:
- Governor 2010
- Senate 2010
Southeast
1
VAP: 37.8 W, 51.5 B
85.1 Obama, 83 Dem
Majority black. Gwen Moore (D-Milwaukee) more than likely lives here. Regardless, she'll run here. She gets 10 points safer, not that she needed it. Safe D
2
VAP: 70 W, 21.3 H
59.1 Obama, 53 Dem
Open. Southern Milwaukee. Safe D
3
VAP: 80.1 W, 8 B, 9.2 H
55.8 Obama, 45.8 Dem
Open. Racine and Kenosha. This contains a lot of Paul Ryan's territory, but not his home in Janesville. He would probably rather run here than his home district, which is now the 6th, but the 4 extra points of Obama performance may sink him in the politically polarized Wisconsin. Tossup with Ryan, Lean D without
4
VAP: 84.2 W, 7.7 B
47.5 Obama, 40.9 Dem
Jim Sensenbrenner (R-Menonmonee Falls) lives here. Outer Milwaukee and part of Waukesha county. Sensenbrenner gets less safe, but he will probably survive here. Safe R
5
VAP: 93.2 W
38.6 Obama, 29.4 Dem
Open; Paul Ryan may want to run here instead of the 3rd or 6th, but he only represents a small part of it. However, he's finally have a constituency he's ideologically consistent with. Waukesha and Jefferson Counties, the embodiment of the Circle of Ignorance. Safe R
6
VAP: 90 W, 5.6 H
60.8 Obama, 51.6 Dem
Paul Ryan (R-Janesville) lives here. Janesville and Madison suburbs. This, along with the 7th and the 11th, make for attractive potential seats for State Reps. Kelda Roys and Mark Pocan, who are currently both running for the open 2nd. Although they'd probably both rather run in the 7th, one of them could take one for the team and they could both go to Congress under this map. This district is Safe D
7
VAP: 81.8 W, 5.2 B, 5.5 H, 5.7 Asian
75.5 Obama, 73.1 Dem
Open; current Rep. Tammy Baldwin is running for Senate. As I said, Mark Pocan and Kelda Roys would both probably rather run here than either the 6th or 11th, but they'd be strongly favored in the general election in any of them. But the People's Republic of Madison is the best district in the state for Dems other than the majority black 1st. Safe D
10
VAP: 94.4 W
38 Obama, 28.4 Dem
Open; another Circle of Ignorance district. The worst in the state for the President. Safe R
Northeast
12
VAP: 92.8 W
50.5 Obama, 39.1 Dem
Tom Petri (R- Fon du Lac) lives here. Fond du Lac, Oshkosh and Sheboygan. Ever so slightly leaning towards Obama, it's just about exactly the same as Petri's current district and it's safe for him as long as he wants it, most likely. Safe R with Petri, Lean R without
13
VAP: 92.9 W
54.5 Obama, 43.8 Dem
Open; Appleton, Neenah and Manitowac. Given the political polarization in Wisconsin, I'm going to lean on the Obama numbers more than the very Republican-skewed Dem average numbers and call this Swing
14
VAP: 90.4 W
54.2 Obama, 43.5 Dem
Reid Ribble (R-Sherwood) does not live here, and he doesn't live in his current district either, but this contains much of his territory. Green Bay, the Door Peninsula and Marinette. Very similar to Ribble's current district, partisanly speaking. In a non-2010 year, I'd call this Swing
West
8
VAP: 94 W
55.6 Obama, 44.6 Dem
Sean Duffy (R-Weston) lives in this district; Wisconsin Rapids, Stevens Point, Wausau. Ever so slightly more safe for Duffy, but he's made a lot of gaffes in his one term so I think he's doomed. State Sen. Julie Lassa (D) also lives here. Lean D
9
VAP: 93.8 W
59.1 Obama, 48.2 Dem
Ron Kind (D-La Crosse) lives here; La Crosse and Eau Claire. Safe D
11
VAP: 95.7 W
60.9 Obama, 50.9 Dem
Open; As I said a couple times already, if Mark Pocan and Kelda Roys both want to go to Congress, one of them will run here instead of primarying each other in the 7th. I think Roys's Assembly district overlaps with this district more than a little. State Sen. Jon Erpenbach's district also has more than a little overlap. Outer Madison suburbs. Safe D
15
VAP: 92.4 W
54 Obama, 43.9 Dem
Open; No major cities, large swath of rural territory. With Wisconsin Democrats as organized as they are, I think they have the upper hand. Maybe Sen. Jim Holperin (D) could look to move up. Swing
16
VAP: 95.8 W
53.1 Obama, 44.3 Dem
Open; again, very rural, no major cities. Again, I believe Democrats will easily outorganize Republicans and could win in 2012. They'd have to fight after that though. State Sen Kathleen Vinehout (D) represents part of this district. Swing
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
So, the current Wisconsin delegation is 3-5, with the redistricting map passed by the Fitzwalkerstan Regime mostly locking in those gains. This map, by contrast, is 8-4-4, with most of the Swing districts probably breaking for Democrats in the current climate. These may be optimistic, but I think the 2011 Great Awakening in Wisconsin shifted the state a few points to the left for the foreseeable future.
South Carolina and Wisconsin together are 13-12-4, making for a 101-85-19 House so far.
Please let me know what you think!