This September update to my gubernatorial race ratings looks at the probability that either party will win the November governors elections for each state. Many pundits like to assign races the categories of Safe, Likely, Lean, and Tossup and I do as well. I'll also go one step further and give percentage chances for each category, but note I'm not using a formal model and these are just to give you a rough idea of my confidence:
Safe - That party has over a 95 percent percent chance of winning. The other party has no realistic options for victory under present or expected circumstances.
Likely - That party has over an 80 percent chance of winning and is the heavy favorite. However it is possible that the situation might change and the other party has a potential path to victory.
Lean - That party has over a 65 percent chance of winning and is a narrow, but clear favorite. This race will be competitive and it is quite plausible that the other party could win with changing circumstances.
Tossup - Both parties have less than a 65 percent chance of winning and the heavily contested race could easily go either way even if one party might be favored from week to week.
With that system in mind, let's take a look at the playing field mapped out and in chart form, while you can find an interactive map with various biographical and electoral stats here.
Following the disastrous 2010 elections Republicans built up a commanding lead in governors offices, particularly considering how many people are represented by each party. Currently there are 21 controlled by Democrats and 29 by Republicans with their party governing 56 percent of the (2010 census) population of the 50 states. Of the 36 states with 2014 gubernatorial elections, 14 are held by Democrats while 22 are held by Republicans. Aggregating all the races not up for election with those rated Lean or stronger for either party yields 21 for Democrats, 22 for Republicans, and 7 Tossups.
At present I expect 7 states to change hands with Republicans gaining Arkansas while Democrats gain Florida, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin which would represent a net gain of 12 percent of the 50-state population for Democrats and result in their governors representing the majority of Americans. Democrats continue to be vulnerable in Connecticut and Illinois while Republican chances aren't secure in Alaska or Arizona.
Compared to July's edition 12 races saw a shift in rating with 8 favoring Republicans and 4 favoring Democrats:
While most of the ratings shifts favor Republicans, Democrats are the ones who come out ahead in terms of actual outcomes with them now winning Kansas, Michigan, and Wisconsin if Tossups are eliminated. Since there are only 36 races I'll detail each one individually below the fold, but keep in mind that a lot of that section is the same as last time for races that were static.
Tossup
Alaska - Sean Parnell - (R)
Alaska saw a major shake-up since the last update with a three-way race turning into a two-way contest. With incumbent Republican Sean Parnell relatively unpopular yet easily winning reelection thanks to split opposition, Democratic nominee Byron Mallott dropped out of the race to join the unity ticket of Republican-turned-independent Bill Walker as his lieutenant governor running mate. Polling has thus far shown a very competitive contest between Parnell and Walker, who has taken over the role as the de facto Democrat. With one of the most tightly contested US Senate races in the country and important ballot measures on legalizing marijuana and raising the minimum wage potentially helping boost Democratic turnout, this will definitely be a contest to watch through November, but I would like to see Walker with a clear polling lead before giving him above 50/50 odds of winning.
Arizona - Open - (R)
Incumbent governor Jan Brewer is term limited and the Republican primary to replace her was a free-for-all with state treasurer Doug Ducey winning a plurality after a campaign that left him somewhat unpopular. Democrats coalesced around former state university board of regents chairman Fred DuVal whose only previous electoral experience was a failed run for the US House in 2002, but is nonetheless well connected in Democratic politics. While the state voted for Romney by roughly 9 percent, Democrats typically are competitive and held the governor's office from 2002-2010 and performed respectably against then popular Brewer in 2010 given the year. Although polling of this race has been seriously lacking, practically all surveys have shown it to be a close race and even the RGA isn't taking any chances. While Ducey should likely win, there isn't enough publicly available polling data for me to keep this race at Lean R.
Connecticut - Dan Malloy - (D)
Though Connecticut is quite blue federally, Dan Malloy only narrowly won an open race in 2010 and has had poor approval ratings in the few polls seen over the past few years, particularly on fiscal issues. Republicans chose their losing 2010 nominee, former ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley, who had a particularly mediocre primary win over his underfunded opponent. Given how Democratic Connecticut is and another Republican wave year being unlikely, Malloy is more likely to win than not, but with a couple of polls showing him losing and the race being underpolled in general I'm moving it to Tossup. Fortunately for Malloy, Foley committed a big gaffe when he told manufacturing workers that it was their fault their jobs were being shipped overseas, which has helped play into Democratic narratives that Foley is a Mitt Romney-esque vulture capitalist.
Florida - Rick Scott - (R)
Governor Rick Scott was a wealthy businessman and political neophyte who had the fortune of running in the 2010 wave, narrowly winning both the primary and general. Scott however has and had at the time major liabilities in addition to very conservative positions. He was the CEO of the company that committed the biggest Medicare fraud in US history and Florida is one of the oldest states in the country. Though Scott was never personally charged (he plead the 5th 70-some times) and was rather miraculously still elected by a narrow margin, he lagged far behind Republicans in the state that year. Since then though his approval ratings have consistently stayed in the 30s or low 40s and popular moderate former Republican governor Charlie Crist, who left the Republican party in 2010 and became a Democrat this cycle, is the Democratic nominee against him. In Scott's favor is his ability to spend a massive amount of money thanks to his personal wealth and spending in the race has been one-sided thus far, giving him a few narrow leads in recent polling that have seen Crist's image take a hit. However given all the negatives Scott has and Crist's popular previous tenure, I'm betting that this is one of Team Blue's pick ups but it will be very closely fought all the way to November.
Illinois - Pat Quinn - (D)
Governor Quinn cheated political death in the wave of 2010 when horrid approval ratings weren't enough to overcome a flawed Republican challenger and a strongly Democratic state. Unfortunately for Democrats, Quinn's approval rating is at best just as bad if not slightly worse, but on the other hand the political environment is very unlikely to be as bad is it was four years ago. Republicans nominated self-described .01%er and billionaire Bruce Rauner who has made ample use of his own funds. Though his money is a campaign plus, Rauner has never run for office before and has made some pretty foolish mistakes such as being for abolishing the minimum wage while raising it is overwhelmingly popular, along with hording away his fortune in tax havens like the Cayman Islands. Given how Quinn eked out a victory in 2010 when most pundits and even most polling had written him off I'm predicting he pulls it out one more time, but not with particularly high confidence. It's worth noting in particular that prolific Illinois conservative pollster We Ask America has been finding Quinn down by double digits, but they did the same in 2010 when he won and generally have a poor track record and massive Republican lean. As with many races, this one is underpolled by reputable firms.
Michigan - Rick Snyder - (R)
A product of the Republican wave, Rick Snyder was a first time candidate running on his business credentials who crushed his Democratic opponent as his state turned hard toward his party in 2010. But since then Snyder and Michigan Republicans have pushed a very aggressive and conservative legislative agenda with unpopular measures such as the emergency manager law effectively suspending many local (Democratic) governments which was overturned at the ballot box and then nefariously reinstated, a strict anti-abortion law, and the biggest of all a right-to-work measure which legislators disgracefully passed in a lame duck session after an election where they lost their majority for it. Snyder has seen his approval rating plummet from the nearly 60 percent he won in 2010 to the low 40s, but complicating things tremendously is the unreliability of Michigan polling. There have been several polls in 2013 and 2014 showing him with recovered approvals and modest leads over likely Democratic opponent, former congressman and state senate majority leader Mark Schauer, however pollsters also showed the 2012 presidential race competitive or had Romney leading late in the cycle when Obama won the state by nearly 10 percent. In Snyder's favor is his sizable monetary advantage and Schauer's name rec deficit, but with bizarre ads like this, the mediocre record it tries to defend, the state's clear Democratic lean, and the closeness of current polling this one should become a Democratic gain since at the end of the day Michigan is a blue state.
Wisconsin - Scott Walker - (R)
The Republican golden child of the 2010 wave, Walker has walked the finest line between electoral viability and pushing a toxic conservative legislative agenda since his initial election. Though he incurred a major backlash by pushing through unpopular anti-union legislation as one of the first acts in his term and one on which he did not campaign, a 3-1 spending advantage and an electorate dismayed that the electoral recall was being used for political reasons comfortably reelected him in the summer of 2012. Walker's approval ratings since then had been slightly positive and along with the recall's failure seem to have importantly deterred 1st tier Democrats from running, but he still faces serious opposition from Democratic nominee and city of Madison school board member Mary Burke who has polled quite close behind him all cycle. Until now though, Walker had a clear advantage, but his policies have had a clearly negative impact on the budget and economy in Wisconsin with his administration getting hammered over a ballooning budget deficit and a not even remotely successful 250,000 jobs pledge. With Burke leading in a few polls and the state having a modest but clear Democratic lean, I think Burke now wins narrowly.
Lean Democratic
Colorado - John Hickenlooper - (D)
Then Denver mayor John Hickenlooper was a massive beneficiary of Republican dysfunction in 2010 when their presumed nominee imploded in a plagiarism scandal and narrowly lost the primary to a little known extremist whom the state party disavowed yet stayed on the ballot and former Republican congressman Tom Tancredo became their de facto candidate on the Constitution Party line. Initially quite popular and seen as a heavy favorite for reelection, Hickenlooper's standing fell in a state with a large pro-gun voting bloc after state Democrats passed a gun control legislative package which despite having individually popular components polled poorly as a concept. However his numbers have since recovered with him leading his opponent, former US Rep. and 2006 gubernatorial loser Bob Beauprez, but in recent months the margins have narrowed. Despite a history of making lunatic statements that only came to light in this campaign, like those regarding the nonexistent threat of Sharia law, Beauprez has remained stubbornly close to Hickenlooper in the polls. One reason is that Hickenlooper famously eschews negative ads and thus Beauprez hasn't been attacked much yet, another is that Colorado has had a consistent Republican bias in polling the last couple of cycles. Ultimately I think Hickenlooper wins it, maybe even by 5 or more, but by refusing to go negative he allows Beauprez an opening in a midterm.
Kansas - Sam Brownback - (R)
Despite Kansas being one of the most Republican states in the country, first term governor Sam Brownback's very conservative agenda has caused his approval rating to tumble as many of the state's large contingent of relatively centrist Republican voters became turned off thanks to his disastrous management of the state's finances. Reputable polling has consistently shown him losing to his challenger, state house minority leader Paul Davis, for quite some time and given the state's budgetary troubles it would be surprising for him to win reelection. The only thing keeping Brownback competitive is the state's generic lean, but with an approval rating in the 30s that can only help him so much and it has become clear that Brownback is becoming a drag on state Republicans.
Maine - Paul LePage - (R)
Despite being an incumbent in a notoriously elastic light blue state LePage is a clear underdog. Initially elected by a bare plurality with just under 40% of the vote thanks to a split field among the left, the ultra-conservative and abrasive LePage has made several blunders and kept himself very unpopular. The only reason he's not completely dead on arrival is because 2010 runner up, independent Eliot Cutler, is running for a rematch. However unlike 2010 when the Democratic nominee was loathed and came in a distant 3rd, Democrats are running their most popular politician in the state, 6-term congressman Mike Michaud who consistently beats LePage one on one in polling. But since this is a three-way race, polls have shown LePage competitive if not very infrequently narrowly leading thanks to Cutler siphoning off a large portion of the vote, but don't be fooled by trial heats this far out. It would be highly abnormal in our two party system for Cutler, who is not unusually well-liked as now-senator Angus King was in 2012, not to collapse in support as left-leaning voters come home to Mike Michaud who is popular with them. This may not happen until low-information voters start paying attention as the campaign enters the final stretch, but I don't expect Cutler to exceed 15 percent of the vote and that is completely insufficient for despised governor LePage to win.
Lean Republican
Arkansas - Open - (D)
Long a Democratic bastion, Arkansas gradually turned towards Republicans over the past two decades until that movement became an avalanche in 2010 and 2012 with little signs of abatement in 2014. Very popular governor Mike Beebe is term-limited and the man he defeated for the open seat in 2006, former congressman Asa Hutchinson, is the Republican nominee this year. Democrats have a very deep bench in the state though and their nominee is former 6-term congressman Mike Ross who has been very competitive in fundraising and easily held down a much more important swing region of the state in Congress. The clear majority of recent polling has shown Hutchinson leading and it seems like 2014 will be the year Arkansas Democrats get totally swept out of power.
Likely Democratic
Hawaii - Open - (D)
Disastrously unpopular incumbent governor Neil Abercrombie was defeated in the Democratic primary in a 2-1 landslide by longtime state senator David Ige despite having a monstrous spending advantage. With odd-duck former Honolulu and perennial loser Mufi Hanneman running as an independent Republicans are hoping they can take advantage of divided Democrats and elect their losing 2010 nominee, former lieutenant governor Duke Aiona. Polling has shown Aiona ahead most of the time, but those polls are worthless. Simply put Hawaii is by far the worst state for the accuracy of public polling for a variety of reasons and should be ignored. The only consistent thing about the polls is that they vastly understate Democratic support. Despite not being taken seriously at first, Ige easily won the primary and has done nothing to make himself unpopular. That's enough for a win, probably an easy win, in a state as blue as Hawaii.
Massachusetts - Open - (D)
Though Republicans recruited losing 2010 nominee Charlie Baker to run and he came within 7 percent in 2010, I don't foresee a path to victory for him barring an epic screw-up by popular multi-term attorney general Martha Coakley, though given disastrous performance in the 2010 US Senate special election, I'm moving the race to Likely D just to be safe. Massachusetts is one of the least Republican states in the country and even if Coakley proves a bad candidate a second time, Baker's party should be enough to sink him again when he couldn't even defeat an unpopular governor in the best year for his party in generations. Coakley has also led in all but a single poll and polling in the state (by the Boston Globe) had a bad tendency not to push undecideds who leaned strongly Democratic, resulting in Scott Brown looking competitive in 2012 only to lose by 8 on election day.
Minnesota - Mark Dayton - (D)
Bucking the trend in the Midwest, Mark Dayton was very narrowly elected in this light blue state in 2010 when Republicans put forth Tom Emmer who was deemed too conservative by the electorate (who nonetheless is set to succeed Michele Bachmann in Congress). Since his initial win with just under 44 percent of the vote, Dayton has seen his approval ratings consistently positive and above 50 percent and the state Republican party is in relative disarray after coming off a bruising 2012 loss of the legislature and being deep in debt. Republicans nominated Hennepin County commissioner Jeff Johnson and are somewhat optimistic given the low approval ratings of the legislature, but Dayton is unlikely to lose given his personal popularity and consistent polling leads.
Rhode Island - Open - (D)
Similarly to Massachusetts, the days of this state electing moderate Republicans are likely over. Rhode Island is one of the most Democratic states in the country even if not the most liberal and the party recently nominated moderate state treasurer Gina Raimondo. While the Republican nominee, Cranston mayor Allan Fung is personally well-liked, he is more than weighed down by his party affiliation and conservative positions and his chances of winning a majority or even plurality of the vote are poor without another Republican wave.
Likely Republican
Georgia - Nathan Deal - (R)
Governor Deal was elected by a fairly comfortable 10 percent over a Democratic former governor for the open seat in 2010, but that was a relatively poor showing compared to the rest of the ticket. Deal had resigned his seat in congress to avoid a congressional ethics investigation ahead of his gubernatorial run and only narrowly won his party's nomination, but since his initial election has seen his middling approval rating nonetheless put him in a decent position for reelection given the state's heavy Republican lean. However Deal has strong opposition with Democratic state senator Jason Carter, the grandson of former president Jimmy Carter, who is still
quite popular in Georgia, and Carter has not been lacking for campaign funds. Throwing a major wrench into Deal's reelection is his ongoing troubles with ethics related to his time in Congress and his past election campaigns. Whether that, Jason Carter's positives as a candidate, and Georgia's slow but steady Democratic trend will be enough to turn this race into a competitive one remains to be seen and for now we can expect heavily conservative state to favor Deal, particularly because unless Carter wins a majority in November there will be a December runoff where asymmetrically lower turnout will make it very difficult for him to win.
Nebraska - Open - (R)
As with its neighboring plains states, Nebraska is heavily Republican and though Democrats had a long history of winning gubernatorial elections here those days seem to have been left behind. Fortunately for Democrats though, Republicans nominated their worst possible candidate with uber-wealthy businessman Pete Ricketts who got demolished by more than 20 points for US Senate in 2006 despite outspending incumbent Ben Nelson several times over that year. Polling has been very infrequent, but Democrats nominated former University of Nebraska board of regents member Chuck Hassebrook who had previously won election to that board in a conservative district. With a Ricketts nomination for an open seat Republicans can't take this race for granted, but Nebraska's dark red hue should be enough to drag Ricketts over the finish line.
South Carolina - Nikki Haley - (R)
Even though South Carolina is generally a safe state for Republicans, disgust with former governor Mark Sanford's tenure and tumultuous relationship with his own party and Haley's close ties to him, a strong conservative Democratic opponent, and possibly her ethnicity caused Haley to win a surprisingly close initial election in 2010 despite a serious monetary advantage. Back for a rematch is state senator Vincent Sheheen who held Haley to under a 5 percent win in 2010. Adding uncertainty to the election though is the presence of Republican-turned-independent Tom Ervin who has enough money to be a serious candidate and could siphon off a chunk of right-leaning voters from Haley. However her approval ratings have been decent and she has lead in nearly all of the scant available polls and that should be enough for a win in such an inelastic state as South Carolina.
Safe Democratic
California - Jerry Brown - (D)
Governor Brown is immensely popular in a very Democratic state, has a huge war chest in an incredibly expensive state, and faces an underfunded and first time candidate in former treasury department official Neel Kashkari.
Maryland - Open - (D)
Maryland is one of the most Democratic states in the country where Republicans have no strong candidates. Lieutenant governor Anthony Brown will win in a walk, even if the cycle turns into another Republican wave just like Martin O'Malley did in 2010.
New Hampshire - Maggie Hassan - (D)
While her initial 2012 election was considered competitive until she won by a hefty 12 percent, Hassan has had stellar approval ratings all cycle and third-tier opposition despite New Hampshire's swingy nature.
New York - Andrew Cuomo - (D)
One of the most Democratic states in the country and Andrew Cuomo is very popular among the general electorate even if not the party base and is obscenely well funded while his Republican opponent, Westchester County executive Rob Astorino is far too conservative for a state Obama carried by 29 points.
Oregon - John Kitzhaber - (D)
Three-term governor Kitzhaber very narrowly won the open seat in 2010 after serving two prior terms, but has since maintained a solid level of support and has a massive fundraising advantage over opponent Dennis Richardson, who is one of the most conservative legislators in the state. With Oregon Democrats holding onto their general popularity in a medium blue state he will have little trouble winning.
Pennsylvania - Tom Corbett - (R)
Though he had a successful track record of winning election as attorney general in a light blue state and was elected governor with ease in the 2010 wave, Tom Corbett has seen his approval rating sink to abysmal lows making him likely the least popular governor in the country who is still running for reelection. Though he has governed over an unpopular legislative agenda that made drastic cuts to education funding and refused Medicaid expansion, what makes Corbett's reelection almost impossible is his connection to the Penn. State Jerry Sandusky sex-abuse scandal from when he was state attorney general. Democrats nominated self-funding businessman and first-time candidate Tom Wolf who has been leading Corbett in polls by around 20 points and is headed for a 2006-level blowout as the incumbent has an approval rating in the low 30s.
Vermont - Peter Shumlin - (D)
The most liberal governor in the country, Peter Shumlin was initially elected very narrowly over moderate Republican then-lieutenant governor Brian Doubie in 2010, but has since kept a decent approval rating. With Vermont's dark blue hue and a total lack of serious opposition Shumlin is a lock for another term even if he's not overwhelmingly popular.
Safe Republican
Alabama - Robert Bentley - (R)
Bentley is a non-offensive incumbent in a state where Democrats would have an incredibly difficult time winning if they were even running a strong candidate, but instead they are running turncoat buffoon and recent re-convert Parker Griffith who will do horribly.
Idaho - Butch Otter - (R)
While governor Otter had a relatively modest initial election margin in 2006, he was easily reelected in 2010 and is overwhelmingly favored for a third term in 2014 as Idaho is one of the most Republican states and he faces no serious threat from his Democratic opposition.
Iowa - Terry Branstad - (R)
The longest-serving governor in American history, Branstad is a strong favorite for a 6th term. He leads his opponent, underfunded state senator Jack Hatch, by a solid margin in the majority of polling and should win with ease in November.
Nevada - Brian Sandoval - (R)
Brian Sandoval is overwhelmingly popular, is probably the most moderate Republican governor in the country, and has a some dude Democratic opponent despite sitting in a light blue state.
New Mexico - Susana Martinez - (R)
For a long time this state was woefully underpolled, but the handful of surveys in past months have given first term Republican Susana Martinez a fairly decent approval rating. Democrats nominated the sitting two-term attorney general and son of a former governor, Gary King, but his campaign has been a catastrophy thus far with horrid fundraising, gaffes, and campaign staff dysfunction. While the state's Democratic lean might prevent Martinez from winning in a blowout, there is absolutely nothing to indicate she might lose, especially with a cash advantage of several times over what King has raised.
Ohio - John Kasich - (R)
At first elected by a slim margin in the 2010 wave, John Kasich saw his approval rating absolutely tank in 2011 only to astoundingly recover throughout 2012 and 2013 to where he now polls usually above water. The man he defeated in 2010, then governor Ted Strickland, chose not to seek a rematch at what would make him 73 on election day, thus removed Kasich's strongest potential opponent. Democrats since settled on Cuyahoga County executive Ed FitzGerald as their nominee, but his campaign imploded over the summer after several campaign missteps and legal impropriety on FitzGerald's part regarding traffic laws. Kasich has opened up an enormous polling lead and FitzGerald's unpopularity threatens to tank the rest of the ticket.
Oklahoma - Mary Fallin - (R)
Oklahoma is one of the most Republican states in the country and any Democrat is unelectable here against any scandal-free Republican, even if there were a few polls showing Fallin with surprisingly soft support.
South Dakota - Dennis Daugaard - (R)
Governor Daugaard is popular in a strongly Republican state and faces no serious opposition.
Tennessee - Bill Haslam - (R)
After winning his initial election over a legitimate Democratic candidate in a rout, Bill Haslam has maintained a high level of popularity and has a some dude opponent while in a starkly Republican state.
Texas - Open - (R)
Although Democrats landed Wendy Davis, a state senator elected twice to a Republican leaning district of over 800,000 constituents, as their nominee here and she has posted very impressive fundraising numbers thanks to her national profile, this is still Texas where Democrats have a ceiling of support well short of 50% thanks to relatively very low minority voter participation rates and an implacably conservative white population. Davis' national fame and liberal support-base will keep this election in the news, but don't believe for a second that she stands a realistic shot at beating relatively popular and very well-funded state attorney general Greg Abbott despite his ultra-conservative positions and the serious flaws in his record.
Wyoming - Matt Mead - (R)
Wyoming is one of the most Republican states in the country and Mead is very popular and will win in a landslide.