You usually don't find much agreement between two rival political campaigns, but both Democrats and Republicans acknowledge two things about the Maine gubernatorial race: The contest is tight, and the supporters of left-leaning independent Eliot Cutler will decide if Republican Gov. Paul LePage gets a second term.
On Friday, the League of Conservation Voters released a PPP survey showing LePage tied with Democrat Mike Michaud, and found Cutler taking 17 percent. If Cutler were not in the race, Michaud would hold a 5-point lead. On Monday the Republican Governors Association unveiled a poll from Magellan Strategies showing a remarkably similar topline, with LePage and Michaud tied 43-43, and Cutler taking 13.
On Tuesday an independent poll from Pan Atlantic also found the two major party candidates deadlocked 40-40, with Cutler at 13. Not coincidently, Michaud has been making gains as Cutler has been declining: The group's last poll gave LePage a 39-34 lead, with Cutler taking 20. Other recent polls have been all over the map, showing everything from a 6-point lead for Michaud to a 10-point edge for LePage, but with both parties showing a tie it's hard to conclude that this contest isn't tight.
Both sides recognize that if Cutler's remaining supporters break for Michaud, it's all over for LePage. Michaud is running an ad featuring several former Cutler supporters saying that they'll be backing Michaud this year, arguing that Michaud can beat LePage. The RGA is trying a similar tactic. Their ad attacks Michaud for trying to create a new tax, and notes that then-Gov. Angus King vetoed the bill. The narrator then mentions that King, now an independent senator, is backing Cutler. LePage is not mentioned at all in the spot: The ad is clearly aimed at Michaud supporters who may not be completely sold on their candidate, and whom the Republicans think they can pry toward Cutler.
Usually, independent candidates lose much of their support at the end of the race. However, there's no telling if that will happen this time. Maine is more open to voting for independents than almost any other state. Cutler also came very close to beating LePage in 2010, and he's much better known than most independents. Dreaminonempty also finds that this year, independent candidates are keeping more of their supporters than usual. Cutler himself stopped running ads and that gives Michaud the chance to appeal to his voters. This election may ultimately come down to whether Cutler can crater enough to get Michaud across the finish line, or if LePage and his allies can boost the independent enough to secure another Republican victory.
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