Only GOTV can prevent Sarah Palin II from actually getting elected to the Senate.
This is the final installment of this short series: "Shit is tight, we only win if we turn out."
Using the poll aggregator at the Huffington Post, I've compiled the current state of the hottest races this cycle, as well as what would happen if Dems shift the numbers a mere two points, then three points.
If we take the polling at face value (without caveating all the problems that may or may not exist in contemporary surveys), Senate Republicans would win Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia, and with it, a 53-47 Mitch McConnell majority.
But if the Democratic ground game can squeeze out an extra three points of Democratic performance (about what a good ground game can be expected to do), Dems would hold on to Colorado, Iowa, and flip Kansas (if Orman caucuses with Dems). That would be a 50-50+Biden Democratic Senate. GOTV matters.
In the governor races, the data suggests Democratic pickups in Alaska, Florida, Kansas, and Pennsylvania, with losses in Arkansas and Maine, so a net +2 Democratic gain. But swing Democratic performance those three GOTV points, and suddenly Dems get additional pickups in Maine, Michigan and Wisconsin, so a net gain of five governorships and a national governorship advantage of 27-23.
So yes, it still comes down to GOTV. That alone is amazing. Given President Barack Obama's unpopularity, the map, and midterm base Democratic turnout, Republicans should be runaway favorites pretty much up and down the ballot just about everywhere. Instead, they're barely hanging on to their advantages.
And that's our GOTV task: strip away that sliver of an advantage to pull our guys over the line. We do that, and not only do we win, but we break the GOP. Because if they can't win this year, there isn't a year they will ever win.