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7:17 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Charlotte Mayor: The Democratic field for the Queen City's semi-open seat race keeps growing. After flirting with a bid for a while, Mayor Pro Tem Michael Barnes announced that he will run. Councilor David Howard also just confirmed that he's in, though he's been raising money since December. Former Mecklenburg County Commission Chair Jennifer Roberts and interim Mayor Dan Clodfelter have been running for a while, and Councilor Vi Lyles is considering joining them. The Democratic primary will be held Sept. 15 and if no one takes at least 40 percent of the vote, the top-two contenders advance to an Oct. 6 runoff. So far no notable Republicans are running.
7:40 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Las Vegas Mayor: On Tuesday, Republican Mayor Pro Tem Stavros Anthony announced that he would challenge independent Mayor Carolyn Goodman. Anthony starts out with little money but he may get help from some influential groups.
Anthony is making opposition to an expensive new soccer stadium the centerpiece of his campaign, a stance he shares with Boyd Gaming and the Culinary Union. As James DeHaven of the Las Vegas Review-Journal notes, if these organizations ally themselves with Anthony he could get a much-needed financial boost. The Culinary Union also could give Anthony some vital get-out-the-vote support in what is expected to be a low-turnout race. The non-partisan primary will be held April 7 and if no one takes a majority the general will be June 2.
8:34 AM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-Sen: A little while ago, Democratic Rep. Xavier Becerra began floating his name for this open Senate seat. Since then Attorney General Kamala Harris has emerged as the frontrunner, but the congressman appears more interested than ever in running. Anna Palmer at Politico reports that Becerra is telling his colleagues and political operatives that he's very serious about a run. Becerra himself isn't being coy in public either, describing his interest in a Senate run as “One to 10, 10 being serious, 10.”
Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa is also a potential candidate and if both he and Becerra are on the ballot, that could help Harris. Becerra represents a heavily Hispanic downtown Los Angeles seat, and the two men could split the Southern California and Latino vote. Plenty of influential Hispanic leaders want a Mexican-American senator, and there will probably be some behind-the-scenes maneuvering to keep them from both jumping in. This wouldn't be the first time the two have faced off though: In the 2001 mayoral primary Villaraigosa took first place in the primary with 30 percent, with Becerra way back in fifth place with only 6 percent (Villaraigosa lost the runoff, but won four years later).
When Sen. Barbara Boxer announced her retirement a few weeks ago former Democratic Rep. Ellen Tauscher confirmed that she was looking at a run, but she's been very silent since then. On Thursday when she was asked about her plans all Tauscher said was "I love the private sector." That's... not exactly a no. It is worth noting that Tauscher's protege Rep. Eric Swalwell just endorsed Harris, which seems to indicate that he doesn't think the former congresswoman will go for it. Harris would probably be relieved to not compete with another woman from the Bay Area in any case.
To help keep track of who could run on the Democratic side, dreaminonempty has created the above chart. We've included three would-be contenders who recently ruled out runs, but we're no longer including the
many politicians who have said no to this Senate seat.
There's been a lot less action on the GOP side. Former U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice very quickly made it clear that she wasn't interested in a Senate run, but some believed that she could be persuaded to change her mind. No such luck though: Rice is taking over as head of Jeb Bush's educational foundation instead.
8:45 AM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-Sen: Also on the Democratic side, Sacramento Mayor Kevin Johnson hasn't gotten too much attention as a possible candidate. Johnson's office only answered "no comment," when asked about his interest but it sounds like he'd rather Villaraigosa run instead. On Thursday at a U.S. Conference of Mayors dinner honoring the former Los Angeles Mayor, Johnson told him "you’ve got a whole lot of mayors who are going to stand with you, no matter what you decide." If Villaraigosa doesn't join the Senate race maybe Johnson's plans will change, but it sounds like he's all in for Villaraigosa right now.
8:55 AM PT (Jeff Singer): FL-Sen: Republican Sen. Marco Rubio has been very insistent that he won't try and run for re-election if he seeks the presidency, and it looks like he's becoming more and more serious about a White House bid. Rubio is making the early primary state swing and his aides say he'll likely decide on his plans in the next few weeks. If Rubio doesn't run for a second term there's really no shortage of Sunshine State Republicans who could succeed him, and plenty of Democrats would probably rather run for an open seat than challenge the well-funded incumbent.
9:00 AM PT (Jeff Singer): WV-Gov: Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin is probably still months away from deciding if he'll run for governor in 2016 or stay in the Senate but it looks like he's edging toward a return to Charleston. Manchin is staffing up his PAC and just hired the state party chair, which would be pretty unusual behavior if he was just planning to seek re-election in 2018.
10:18 AM PT (David Jarman): Philly mayor: When Ken Trujillo unexpectedly dropped out of the open Philadelphia mayoral race on Wednesday, his statement seemed to politely request that someone else take his place on the progressive end of the candidate field, and it's already looking like he might get his wish. City councilor Jim Kenney is now saying he's looking closely at the race and will decide in the next week. Kenney, who's pushed for marijuana decriminalization and expanded hate crimes legislation, would probably also attract much of the labor support in the race. If you want a closer picture of Kenney, check out the highlights from his free-ranging Twitter feed, which is accurately described here as "Philadelphia's id."
Another Philly institution, businessman Sam Katz, is also checking out the race. Katz has run for the mayor's office three times, coming very close to winning once, as the Republican nominee in 1999 against John Street. This time, the moderate-maybe-even-liberal Katz has ruled out running as a Republican, though it's unclear whether he'd run as a Democrat or an independent this time.
10:31 AM PT (David Jarman): Demographics: The Wall Street Journal has an interesting overview of trends in Americans moving places (it debunks five myths about migration, though they probably aren't myths to you if you've been paying close attention). Americans are less mobile than they were in previous decades (though they point out that's partly a good thing: regional economies are more diverse than they used to be, so you don't need to uproot your life if the industry you're in falters), but they're still more mobile than people in most OECD countries.
Maybe most interestingly, it debunks the notion that once Americans retire, they move somewhere sunnier and/or cheaper. Instead, most moving across state lines occurs in early adulthood, for employment or education opportunities; the older you are, the less likely to you are to move. Also, traditional patterns where the suburbs outgain the cities are starting to return; the surge in cities in the first post-recession years is looking more like a temporary blip (probably economic in nature -- the usual pattern of renting in the city, then buying in the suburbs, got disrupted by the stagnant wages and tighter credit of the late 00s/early 10s).
12:53 PM PT: CA-Sen: Harris, meanwhile, is doing her best to dissuade Villaraigosa from taking the plunge. She just released a new poll from PPP that has her up 41-16 in a two-way matchup with the former mayor, and 34-9 in a multi-car pileup that would resemble a crazy-ass hypothetical primary:
Kamala Harris (D): 34
Condi Rice (R): 33
Antonio Villaraigosa (D): 9
Loretta Sanchez (D): 4
Xavier Becerra (D): 3
Rocky Chavez (R): 2
That's pretty similar
to PPP's last poll, which didn't test Villaraigosa but nevertheless found Harris as the best-positioned Dem in the top-two primary. (For what it's worth,
Politico reports that Rice has zero interest in running.)
12:58 PM PT: P.S. Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearengin, who hadn't publicly spoken since Boxer retired, says she's "keeping [her] options open." Swearengin ran for state controller last year, losing 54-46 to Democrat Betty Yee, so she acquitted herself well. Still, it'll be no fun to run statewide as a Republican in California in a presidential year.
1:01 PM PT: FL-Sen: And one of the strongest potential Democrats, Rep. Patrick Murphy, just declared his interest in running for the first time (or at least, his spokesman did). Murphy's team says that the 31-year-old congressman, one of just five Democrats nationwide to hold a district Mitt Romney won in 2012, is "giving serious thought" to a bid. The DSCC would surely love it if Murphy got into the race, though if he had to deal with a primary against someone like Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, things could get messy.
1:02 PM PT (David Jarman): WA-Gov: Most observers have assumed that former Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna will be back for a rematch against Democratic Governor Jay Inslee in the Evergreen State in 2016, but one other GOPer a little lower down the food chain is already floating his name. Bill Bryant, a Port of Seattle Commissioner, is very moderate and pro-infrastructure; he'd be a solid general election candidate but it's hard to see how he'd emerge from the top 2 primary against a more conservative Republican. Also, there's the slight problem that no one knows who he is yet (although Port Commissioner is an elected position for all of King County), though he's well-connected enough with downtown Seattle business interests that money would be there for him.
1:09 PM PT: IL-Sen: A fourth member of the House from Illinois has now said she's potentially interested in taking on GOP Sen. Mark Kirk next year, and she might be the most interesting name to emerge to date. Rep. Robin Kelly, who represents a seat that covers southeastern Chicago and its suburbs, just told Roll Call that she's "doing [her] due diligence to look at if there is a pathway" to victory. Kelly, as you may recall, pulled off a major upset in a special election to replace disgraced ex-Rep. Jesse Jackson, riding a wave of disgust over gun violence to victory over two fellow Democrats who sported "A" ratings from the NRA.
But as Emily Cahn notes, the other three congresscritters considering bids—Bill Foster, Tammy Duckworth, and Cheri Bustos—each have their own strengths. All four could win their party's nomination, and all four could beat Kirk, though Democrats would rather avoid a major primary battle. (The University of Minnesota points out that the last time two sitting House members faced off in a Senate primary was 1938.) But at least Illinois holds an early primary, so even if two or more candidates duke it out, there's still plenty of time for the winner to turn around and tackle Kirk.
1:29 PM PT: NC-02: If you told me back in January of 2011 that Renee Ellmers—Renee Ellmers!—would not be crazy enough for the GOP in just four years time ... well, there's just no way to finish that sentence, because my head has already exploded. Yet here we are, what with Ellmers apparently becoming "sane" by comparison and bits of my brain all over the room.
You see, a few days ago, Ellmers took the lead in telling her Republican colleagues that maybe they'd be better off not sticking Todd Akin's foot in their collective mouths by pushing forward with a vote on the "Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act" that would have restricted access to abortion after 20 weeks of pregnancy. Don't get me wrong: Ellmers is totally on board with the idea—she's not sane-sane, just Republican sane—but she got queasy with language in the bill that would have only permitted an exception in the case of rape if the victim reported the rape to the authorities first.
Amazingly, the GOP leadership agreed with Ellmers and yanked the bill, but now Ellmers may have to pay the ultimate price for trying to shut that thing down. According to Emily Cahn, Chatham County Republican Party chair Jim Duncan had already been considering a primary challenge to Ellmers, and now her anti-anti-abortion meddling might be the final straw that pushes him into the race.
Ellmers faced primary opposition last year from a badly underfunded Some Dude named Frank Roche but still only managed to win 59 percent of the vote. And in 2012, against an array of nobodies, she took just 58 percent in the primary. Now, Duncan threatened to run against Ellmers last cycle too but backed off, so he may decline again. But with a track record like this, Ellmers is certainly vulnerable. She just jabbed the "pro-life" sasquatch in the eye very hard, and she may soon discover the consequences.