Kentucky Republican Matt Bevin
Leading Off:
• KY-Gov: Three weeks ago, the RGA unexpectedly stopped airing ads for Republican Matt Bevin. The group never publicly gave a reason, but it seems national Republicans felt that Bevin was running a weak campaign, and they didn't want to send any more money his way until he shaped up. Bevin's campaign doesn't appear to have gotten any better: He's still allowing Democrat Jack Conway to outspend him, and he almost missed his own fundraiser. But the RGA must see some sort of opening here, since they're returning to Kentucky with a $1.6 million ad buy.
Unsurprisingly, the RGA's first new ad is basically the same as every ad they've run in a red state since... oh, 2010. The narrator describes how awful things are ("Health care costs have skyrocketed, too many jobs have been lost..." you get the picture), before it links Conway to Obama. The ad features the clip of Obama saying his policies are on the ballot that the GOP used ad nauseam in 2014, before the narrator argues that they can't afford four more years of Obama and Conway's policies.
Election Day is in two weeks and a $1.6 million buy, while not insignificant, isn't particularly overwhelming this late in the game. We'll definitely want to see if the RGA increases their spending as Nov. 3 approaches or if they're just dipping their toes into the water.
Conway also has a new spot. The Democrat's campaign has usually aired ads portraying Bevin as untrustworthy, but his new spot goes positive. Conway describes how he'll push for "[b]etter schools [and] better jobs."
Senate:
• FL-Sen: Rep. Alan Grayson was lapped by fellow Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy in third-quarter fundraising, with Murphy taking in $1.5 million to just $743,000 for Grayson. But it turns out that Grayson's haul is even weaker than it first appeared, since $100,000 of his take actually came in the form of a personal loan, which comes on top of a $50,000 loan he made to himself earlier in the election cycle. Murphy also holds a wide cash edge, $3.5 million to $250,000.
Gubernatorial:
• LA-Gov: Most polls have shown Republican David Vitter easily advancing into the runoff with Democrat John Bel Edwards, but Market Research Insight has consistently shown Scott Angelle, another Republican, within striking distance of Vitter. And sure enough, two more MRI polls show Vitter in danger of losing his runoff spot to Angelle in Saturday's jungle primary.
The first MRI poll gives Edwards 38 percent of the vote but shows Vitter edging Angelle only 20-16; Republican Jay Dardenne is close behind with 14. This survey, which was paid for by John Georges and several other businessmen, was conducted Oct. 14 through Oct. 16. (Hat-tip and a major thank you to Andrew Tuozzolo, who helped us track down this poll.)
Another source has also directed us to another MRI poll, though it's unclear who MRI's client is this time. This survey shows the race for the second-place runoff spot slightly closer: Vitter beats Angelle 19-17, while Dardenne is still at 14. (Edwards is safely ahead at 36.) This poll was conducted Oct. 15 to Oct. 19, but it's not clear if it's entirely separate from the first one or if it's part of a rolling tracker.
In the midst of all these polls, New Orleans-based investigative reporter Jason Berry published an interview with Wendy Ellis, a former prostitute who alleged that in 2000, she became pregnant with Vitter's baby and that he exhorted her to abort it. If this story, which first hit on Oct. 18 and is so far uncorroborated, is doing Vitter any damage, neither of MRI's polls were in the field long enough to fully capture it.
So perhaps MRI is seeing something no one else is picking up on and Vitter is in real danger on Saturday. Ellis' story could also make things unpredictable. Still, it's going to be very hard for Angelle or Dardenne to win a spot in the runoff as long as they keep splitting the anti-Vitter GOP vote. In any case, we'll know once and for all where things stand on Saturday.
• NH-Gov: Democrat Mark Connelly, the former head of the state's Securities Bureau, is publicly considering a run for governor, and unnamed sources tell the New Hampshire Union Leader that he'll announce he's in by the end of October. If Connelly runs, he'll face Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern in the primary; Portsmouth Councilor Stefany Shaheen and state Sen. Andrew Hosmer are also considering.
House:
• CA-46: Rep. Tony Cardenas is the seventh California House member to back ex-state Sen. Lou Correa's bid for this safely blue seat. However, while there's no doubt that Correa has far more establishment support than his three intra-party rivals, so far it hasn't translated into fundraising.
In the last three months, Correa only raised $76,000, and he has $151,000 on hand. By contrast, Anaheim Councilor Jordan Brandman raised $116,000 during this period, and he has $107,000 in the bank. Joe Dunn, another former state senator, brought in $131,000, and he has $130,000 available. The fourth candidate, Garden Grove Mayor Bao Nguyen, kicked off his campaign after the quarter ended, though he raised $54,000 before announcing.
Correa represented over 75 percent of this seat in the legislature until last year so he starts with more name recognition than any of his opponents, and none of his foes are exactly lighting the world on fire with their hauls either. Still, it is interesting that Correa's endorsements aren't allowing him to build up much of a warchest here.
• FL-07: Redistricting has transformed Republican Rep. John Mica's seat into a district that Obama and Romney almost tied in, but the congressman has indicated that he'll stay put rather than run in the redder 6th District. It won't be easy for Democrats to unseat Mica, but Bill Phillips has announced that he will challenge the incumbent. Phillips has worked as a political consultant and is a vice president at a local bank, so he may have the money and connections he'd need to win.
• FL-13: On Tuesday, ex-Gov. Charlie Crist announced that he would run for this open St. Petersburg seat. Crist said all the way back in July that he'd run for this seat if he lived in it after redistricting, so this announcement was no surprise. However, Republican Rep. David Jolly, who is leaving this district behind to run for the Senate, unexpectedly crashed what would have otherwise been a routine campaign kickoff. Jolly told reporters that he cares too much about the seat "to lay down and let this huckster walk into office." Republicans utterly hate Crist, who left the party in 2010, so this kind of stunt certainly won't hurt Jolly's chances in the GOP primary.
Crist needs to get past former Obama administration official Eric Lynn in the Democratic primary, but the well-known Crist will be hard to beat. Team Blue also has a great chance to pick up the redrawn version of this seat, which Obama won by a 55-44 margin. However, the one Republican who could keep this district red sounds interested in taking on Crist.
Rick Baker, the popular former mayor of St. Petersburg, said on Monday that he's "intrigued by the idea," and will decide by early 2016. A July St. Pete Polls survey gave Crist a 46-42 edge in a hypothetical duel, though Baker easily defeated the little-known Lynn. Baker won his 2005 re-election bid with 70 percent of the vote, and he did well in predominantly African American areas. However, while Baker has always identified as a Republican, he has only run in non-partisan races before, and he can't count on Democrats backing him if he has an R next to his name.
PS: If Crist wins, he'll be one of only a few ex-governors to be elected to the House. The University of Minnesota's Smart Politics blog finds that in the last half-century, only four other ex-governors have done this, and none of them had run a state anywhere near as large as Florida: They were Maine's Joseph Brennan, Delaware's Mike Castle, South Dakota's Bill Janklow, and South Carolina's Mark Sanford. From the early 20th century, it was a bit more common (though still rare) for ex-governors to take this career move.
• NY-13: Former DNC political director Clyde Williams, who'd been sounding like a candidate for some time, has finally made his entry into the crowded Democratic primary for New York's open 13th Congressional District official. Williams ran for this seat once before in 2012, taking less than 10 percent, but Rep. Charlie Rangel was seeking re-election that year. Now Rangel is retiring, but the field to succeed him is enormous.
• NY-22: Last week, Assemblywoman Claudia Tenney sounded very interested in seeking a rematch with Rep. Richard Hanna, who defeated her 53-46 in last year's GOP primary. However, Tenney now says a run is "[n]ot likely this year," especially after her mother died unexpectedly. Hanna is one of the last true moderates in the House and he won't ever be safe, but no one else has made any noises about challenging him yet.
• PA-15, NY-02: Rep. Charlie Dent has a lock on his 51-48 Romney seat, and he'd given no indication that he's looking to retire anytime soon. However, Dent shared his frustrations with life as a moderate Republican in today's House, and he sounds ready to go if things stay as chaotic as they are. Dent tells Jack Fitzpatrick that if Paul Ryan doesn't become speaker and if the House gets close to another government shutdown over Planned Parenthood this December, he's willing to think about leaving. Democrats would be thrilled if Dent's Lehigh Valley seat opened up in a presidential year, though it sounds like Dent will only depart if he feels like he can't take the House anymore.
Pete King, another member who occasionally votes against the leadership from the left, also says that other representatives are talking about leaving if the speakership election doesn't go well. However, King himself made it clear that he's staying put. Obama narrowly carried King's Long Island seat but like Dent, King has always pulled off easy wins. Democrats were hopeful that Suffolk County Legislator DuWayne Gregory could at least give King a tough time, but Gregory hasn't been raising much money.
• TX-33: Former state Rep. Domingo Garcia, who was so despised during his time in the legislature that Texas Monthly once called him a "one-man leper colony," said back in June that he was considering a second run against Rep. Marc Veasey in next year's Democratic primary. Garcia also said that he'd decide by July, but that never happened. Instead, Garcia now says he will "probably not run" unless the never-ending redistricting litigation challenging Texas' maps winds up shifting the lines to his benefit.
It's pretty weird, though: A three-judge court in San Antonio has been hearing this case since 2011, and the panel long ago found the legislature's maps unconstitutional. But filing is about to start for 2016 and we still don't have proper remedial plans. There's just no explanation—or excuse—for this multi-year delay. Texans have already gone through two cycles without fully legitimate maps. Will they really go through another? Even last decade, which saw incredible controversy over redistricting (remember the infamous DeLaymander?), everything was finally sorted out by 2006. This just can't go on.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.