Leading Off:
● LA-Gov: While John Bel Edwards has already earned admission to the Campaign Ad Hall of Fame with his unforgettable "prostitutes over patriots" spot that eviscerated David Vitter, a couple of outside groups also played big roles in setting up Edwards for his unlikely victory. One was the mysteriously named Louisiana Water Coalition, about which the public knew almost nothing except that it had been funded by a Baton Rouge law firm clearly eager to stop Vitter. But in a fascinating new piece, the National Journal's Karyn Bruggeman pulls back the proverbial curtain and talks to the operatives who created the super PACs ads, which included a pair of Democratic pollsters and, remarkably, a Republican ad man who'd worked for Arnold Schwarzenegger, Rob Stutzman.
Stutzman explains his involvement by saying he (correctly, as it turned out) viewed Vitter as "one of the worst candidates we had anywhere in the country" and hoped to damage him enough so that another Republican (either Jay Dardenne or Scott Angelle) could pass him in the primary, a gambit that almost worked. Most interesting is how the Water Coalition went about its task: Its ads did not merely attack Vitter over the prostitution scandal itself, because Vitter could parry by reminding voters that his wife had forgiven him, but rather focused on the questions the scandal raised about Vitter's judgment. That message, the pollsters found, resonated most strongly, and it was echoed in Edwards' own ad, to devastating effect.
The trio behind the Water Coalition's assault on Vitter packed up shop after the primary, but, says Bruggeman, credited another group, Gumbo PAC, for "picking up where they left off." Gumbo PAC was funded chiefly by the DGA and run by an LA Democratic Party operative named Trey Ourso, who sat for an interview with the New Orleans Times-Picayune right after the election. In his post-mortem, Ourso touched upon similar themes of trust and character, but he also said that his group's most powerful ad featured clips of Angelle and Dardenne hammering Vitter in debates—a potent set of attacks that helped persuade anti-Vitter Republicans to switch to Edwards. Ourso also cited the absurd Vitter's private investigator debacle, which helped reinforce voters' concerns about the senator at a critical time.
Perhaps his most important point, though, was that the prostitution scandal had never been "fully litigated politically." While most observers thought it was safely dead after Vitter cruised to a second term in the Senate in 2010, none of his opponents back then had pushed the issue in the forceful terms that Edwards and the super PACs did this year. While political science literature generally argues that scandals fade with time, Vitter's experience shows that this is by no means always the case. If anything, his re-election campaign may have made him complacent, and he paid a bitter price for it.
Senate:
● CA-Sen: Rep. Loretta Sanchez and state Attorney General Kamala Harris continue to battle over endorsements from California's very large delegation of House Democrats, with the latest get (if you can call it that) going to Sanchez, who just earned the support of fellow Rep. Jim Costa, one of the most worthless members of Congress. Sanchez also announced the backing of former Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, who is best known for his terrible showing in the infamous 2003 gubernatorial recall election.
Gubernatorial:
● ND-Gov: Democrat Sarah Vogel, who served a couple of terms as state agriculture secretary back in the 1990s, has now upgraded her interest level in a bid for governor from "thinking about it" to creating an exploratory committee. Vogel says she hasn't committed yet but says she's leaning toward a run, and this move will allow her to accept donations. So far, she is the only Democrat to wade in, while two Republicans are in the race: Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem and state Rep. Rick Becker. The GOP is heavily favored to hold this open seat.
House:
● NH-01: GOP state Rep. Pam Tucker, a former deputy House speaker, has been looking at a bid for Congress but now says she won't decide until some time next year, perhaps as late as the second quarter. Tucker rather pointedly has declined to criticize embattled Rep. Frank Guinta, a fellow Republican, saying her interest "isn't about Frank or running against Frank." That may explain why she's willing to wait so long, since New Hampshire's filing deadline is not until June 10, so she may want to see if Guinta will actually follow through on his plans to seek re-election. Former business school dean Dan Innis, though, is already challenging Guinta in the primary.
Grab Bag:
● Voting Rights: Striking a blow for justice, outgoing Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear, who will leave office in only a few weeks, just signed an executive order that would restore voting rights to as many as 180,000 non-violent felons. Kentucky is just one of four states (along with Florida, Iowa, and Virginia) that does not automatically restore voting right to felons who have completed their sentences, including parole and probation, meaning that over 20 percent of black residents are not eligible to vote. Democrats in the legislature have tried to remedy this for years, but Republicans have resisted.
It's not yet clear whether Republican Governor-elect Matt Bevin will attempt to reverse Beshear's order; a spokesman only said it would "be evaluated during the transition period." But Bevin had actually said he supports the idea of voting rights restoration during the campaign, so hopefully he will let Beshear's action stand.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.