A movement is growing at Daily Kos to fix a key problem in our party — regardless of who wins the presidential nomination. In the past couple of months we’ve launched Crowdsourcing the 50-State Strategy and are recruiting activists to join us in this long-term, bottom-up rebuilding process. |
This post is the latest installment in our continuing Crowdsourcing the 50-State Strategy series.
As noted in previous posts, we can fix major problems in our party. With hard work and a commitment to the long haul, we as a community can crowdsource our way out of our predicament and ensure voters have meaningful choices.
If you are interested in volunteering to help with this effort please send our group a kosmail and let us know how you want to help. Navajo, who is organizing volunteers, will send you an invite. Also please post your own diaries and recommend the work of others you think good additions to the effort.
Whether you support Hillary, Martin, or Bernie, this matters because neither they—nor their successors—can enact their agenda unless we unite to fix these problems. These include a failure in many districts and whole states to organize effectively at the precinct level, a failure to spend enough time and energy supporting down-ballot candidates and a massive candidate recruiting failure that results in many voters having no Democratic candidates for Congress or state legislative posts to choose when they cast their ballots.
One example of this recruiting failure can be found in U.S. House races:
- We need to pick up 30 seats to win back the House and actually have a shot at governing.
- 22 of the 79 Republican members of the House who represent districts where President Obama got at least 47% of the vote currently are running unopposed.
- So far, this election 126 Republican members of the House have no Democrat running against them.
- In Ohio, the congressional filing deadline is December 16, 2015. Currently, 7 out of 12 Republicans in Ohio are running unopposed.
- Filing deadlines have passed in three states, and that already means there will be no Democratic opponent in eight congressional districts in 2016. This means we are on pace to leave more voters without a choice than even some of our worst years:
- In 2014 we left 38 seats uncontested.
- In 2012 we left 24 seats uncontested.
- In 2010 we left 24 seats uncontested.
- In 2008 we left 12 seats uncontested.
- In 2006 we left 11 seats uncontested.
- In 2004 (before the original 50-State Strategy began) we left 36 seats uncontested.
But, sadly, the recruiting failure is often even worse at the state and local level. We don’t want people to continue to experience what Steven D did. When he showed up to vote this November, many of his local races in Upstate New York didn’t have a Democrat on the ballot. That is even sadder because many of those districts are small enough that door-knocking and other neighbor-to-neighbor communication can create as much or more impact than money.
Also as we have seen recently with the defeat of David Vitter in Louisiana, even if a state or district seems very tough for Democrats and hasn’t recently voted for a Democrat for president, it doesn’t mean that it cannot be won. Even old scandals that established wisdom thinks are no longer issues can come back to bite a politician if used properly when a real campaign is run as the "prostitutes over patriots" ad showed when it highlighted a contrast in priorities between David Vitter and his Democratic opponent John Bel Edwards.
A 50-State Strategy is ultimately about competing everywhere. Below, we will look at two states that are tough, but where many of the Republican candidates have said or done extreme things without facing a challenge or the challenge happened in a very red year when all Democrats were swimming against a fierce current.
I’ll be focusing in detail on two tough states for Democrats with filing deadlines coming up in January—West Virginia and Mississippi.
Join me below fold for:
- A list of resources I find useful or were recommended to me by Crowdsourcing the 50 State Strategy expert BENAWU
- My outline of the current situation in US House races in two states with January filing deadlines (draft movements can take time, so we need to start now on the states with deadlines in January and beyond)
- please add to or correct anything I get wrong
- please do your own versions for other states and/or for state and local races and post them on DKos and cross post them on state and local blogs for the areas you write about
- A list of each state’s filing deadline
I am picking these two tough states for Democrats for this Diary because:
- A 50 State Strategy is about running candidates everywhere
- These are two extremely inexpensive states to campaign in so you can win without raising as much money
- These are two states with very low median household incomes, so an Elizabeth Warren style progressive populist message might do really well here and in most cases that has not been tried in any recent election
- These are states that haven’t seen confident progressive populist candidates campaign actively at the congressional district level, so we do not know how they will do until we try
- Many of these are low turnout districts, so if we were to see the type of political revolution or wave election where people who say it is time to show up to vote and throw the bums out then these are the districts we need candidates in to catch that type of wave
I encourage you to create your own Diary like this one for federal, state, or local offices that we need to work together to find strong candidates for. Bill Day has already created a superb Diary on Georgia.
Here are some resources I find very useful:
- The Almanac of American Politics does a fabulous job going into each federal officeholder and the governorship, plus giving a detailed profile of each state legislative and congressional district.
- The Secretary of State or equivalent's website for each state. In most states they set the election rules and administer the elections. Many of them put the key rules on their website, though these aren't always easy to find or digest. This is where knowing people on the ground who have the institutional memory of having been through it before makes a huge difference. You can also call the Secretary of State, County Clerk, or their equivalents’ offices to ask, but you should go into such a call knowing that the people who work in such offices are basically part of an intelligence network for some politician.
-
www.politics1.com was one of the earliest political blogs ever and though its owner Ron Gunzburger now posts tweets more than blogs, the brilliance and resilience that he built into his blog (and maintains better than the typical such operation} makes it a superb resource for each state. There, you can find:
- Who is running or has been mentioned in any media as thinking of running for all statewide and congressional offices Links to all those candidates’ and potential candidates’ websites
- A link to every state's Secretary of State or equivalent's website
- Links to many states’ campaign finance reports websites
- Links to most of the major political news media in each state
- Dates of filing deadlines (I did find some errors in those when I checked them against Secretary of State websites)
- Dates of most primaries and which statewide offices are up for election when
-
www.thegreenpapers.com (this is also a blog started in the pre-history of blogging that really isn't a blog anymore, but has an immense wealth of information about election rules, etc)
- I often go digging for local and state blogs as well as local media coverage
- By far and away the best source of information is political operatives on the ground with institutional memory
You can also help draft or recommend diaries on the following:
- Candidate recruiting needs
- Profiles on down ballot races where candidates are needed
- These could be organized by state or some other category like open seats or seats in districts where the median household income is below $39,000
- These could include ideas on where incumbents are vulnerable (votes they took at odds with their constituents’ needs, scandals, crazy statements, etc)
- Filing procedures
- To start a draft movement or report on draft movements
You can also use your expertise to help campaigns as Chris Reeves lays out in this diary.
Note: Potential Candidates are names that – as Daily Kos Elections would put it – the Great Mentioner has tossed their names out as people who might run, but they may or may not be taking any steps to think about running.
Mississippi Filing Deadline: January 8, 2016
MS-1
2008: Obama 37% McCain 62%
2012: Obama 37% Romney 62%
Cook Partisan Index: R+16
Median Household Income: $40,887
Demographics: 26.3% Black, .5% Asian, .2% Native American, 68.9% White, .8% Other, 1.2% Two or more; Hispanic or Latino 3%
Veterans/active duty: 7.7%
Urban 0% Suburban 21.4% Rural 78.6%
% of Voting Age Turnout Voting in 2012: 57.5%
Incumbent: Trent Kelly (R)
Current Opponents: None
District background:
- Northeast Mississippi, Memphis suburbs, Tupelo, Oxford
- Old Miss University is located in the district at Oxford
- De Soto County, in the Memphis suburbs, is the fastest growing county in Mississippi
- Starkville has become a center for the aerospace industry
About Trent Kelly:
- Elected in a Special Election June 2, 2015
- Democratic opponent in special was outspend 15 to 1 (The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1025)
MS-2
2008: Obama 64% McCain 35%
2012: Obama 66% Romney 33%
Cook Partisan Index: D+13
Median Household Income: $30,582
Demographics: 65.1% Black, .4% Asian, .2% Native American, 31.9% White, .7% Other, .6% Two or more; Hispanic or Latino 1.8%
Veterans/active duty: 6.1%
Urban 13.5% Suburban 11.3% Rural 75.3%
% of Voting Age Turnout Voting in 2012: 62.3%
Incumbent: Bennie Thompson (D)
Current Opponents: None
District background:
- Mississippi Delta and Jackson
MS-3
2008: Obama 38% McCain 61%
2012: Obama 39% Romney 60%
Cook Partisan Index: R+14
Median Household Income: $39,890
Demographics: 35.1% Black, .9% Asian, .9% Native American, 60.4% White, .5% Other, .7% Two or more; Hispanic or Latino 2.1%
Veterans/active duty: 7.4%
Urban 17.3% Suburban 22.3% Rural 60.4%
% of Voting Age Turnout Voting in 2012: 60.9%
Incumbent: Gregg Harper (R)
Current Opponents: None
District background:
- South Central Mississippi and Jackson Suburbs
About Gregg Harper:
- Volunteered as a legal observer for the George W. Bush campaign in the 2000 Florida recount (The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1032)
- Anti-choice (The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1033)
- Anti-marriage equality (The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1033)
- Strong advocate for the Keystone XL pipeline (The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1033)
- Opponent of Obamacare (The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1033)
- Authored bill that passed the House in 2011 to eliminate the Election Assistance Commission, which sets voluntary voting system guidelines for states (The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1033)
- Joined Tea Party Caucus in 2010 (The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1033)
MS-4
2008: Obama 31% McCain 68%
2012: Obama 31% Romney 68%
Cook Partisan Index: R+21
Median Household Income: $41,734
Demographics: 22.8% Black, 1.9% Asian, .2% Native American, 69.5% White, .6% Other, 1.4% Two or more; Hispanic or Latino 4%
Veterans/active duty: 12.9%
Urban 32.1% Suburban 23.8% Rural 44.1%
% of Voting Age Turnout Voting in 2012: 52.9%
Incumbent: Steven Palazzo (R)
Current Opponents: None
District background:
- Southeast Mississippi, Gulfport, Biloxi, Hattiesburg
- Hit hard by Hurricane Katrina
- Represented until 2010 by longtime Democratic Congressman Gene Taylor, even though the district voted against Democratic Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton (The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1035)
- Shipyards are a major employer
About Steven Palazzo:
- Voted against Hurricane Sandy aid after his own district had been significantly aided after Hurricane Katrina (The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1035)
- Started an accounting firm specializing in individual income tax returns for expatriates (The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1035)
- Portrayed Gene Taylor as an enabler of Nancy Pelosi, when he had a hard time finding votes of Taylor’s to attack (The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1036)
- Joined Tea Party Caucus (The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1036)
- Wants big cuts in federal spending even though a large number of jobs in his district come from federal spending
- Added an amendment to the House-passed fiscal 2013 Pentagon spending bill to ban same-sex marriage ceremonies on military bases, though that provision didn’t make it through the Senate (The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1036)
- Opposed a 2012 proposal by Congresswoman Betty McCollum (D) to end military sponsorship of NASCAR and other sports saying there was “no reason Congress should be telling the Department of Defense where and how to spend money” (The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1036)
- Not known for being accessible to voters (The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1036)
- In November 2011 his staff threw a raucous weekend party in Annapolis that drew a police visit (The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1036)
- Has upset local Tea Party for voting for Boehner for Speaker (The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1036)
West Virginia Filing Deadline: January 30, 2016
West Virginia is a classic case of what happens when you don’t show up to compete in elections. Up until 2000 West Virginia had been one of the most Democratic states only voting for Republican Presidents in landslide years of 1956, 1972, and 1984 and having sent mostly Democrats to Washington for the prior 50 years (with the major exception being Arch Moore who served for 12 years from 1957-1969, during a time period when there were 6 (1950s) and 5 (1960s) House Members from WV).
Yet in 2000 the Bush campaign targeted the state heavily and the Gore campaign only put an effort into WV late. Too late. Bush won 52% to 46%. If Gore had won here, as can be said of all states he lost, he would have been President.
After 2000 no Democratic Presidential campaign tried again and WV quickly raced to the right as the voters in increasing swaths of territory heard no counter-argument. Longtime Democrats held on in the Senate until Rockefellor’s retirement in 2014 and in WV-1 until 2010 and WV-3 until 2014, but the infrastructure to elect Democrats had largely dissolved out from underneath them and the voters were largely only hearing the Republican side.
In 2008 Obama received at least 42% in each of West Virginia’s congressional districts, but 4 years later after the 50 State Strategy had been dismantled and there was no more sustained investment in party building outside of specific campaigns Obama got between 33% and 38% per district.
One interesting thing to note in WV-1 is that Romney got only 1,315 votes more than McCain (Romney 141,736 McCain 140,421), but Obama’s numbers fell from 102,826 in 2008 to 81,017 in 2012. That is a collapse in turnout.
Similarly in WV-2 Romney got only 4,524 votes more than McCain (Romney 140,783 McCain 136,259), but Obama’s numbers fell from 109,369 in 2008 to 89,079 in 2012. Another 20,000 vote drop in Democratic turnout.
In WV-3 it is a bit of a different story with Romney improving 14,350 votes over McCain’s numbers, while Obama’s votes dropped 23,489 between his two elections.
WV-1
2008: Obama 42% McCain 57%
2012: Obama 36% Romney 62%
Cook Partisan Index: R+14
Median Household Income: $41,436
Demographics: 2.3% Black, .8% Asian, .1% Native American, 94.3% White, .1% Other, 1.4% Two or more; Hispanic or Latino 1%
Veterans/active duty: 9.9%
Urban 36.4% Suburban 15.6% Rural 48%
% of Voting Age Turnout Voting in 2012: 46.7%
Incumbent: David McKinley (R)
Current Opponents: Mike Manypenny (D) - Ex-State Del., Agricultural Consultant & Ex-Landscape Contractor
District background:
- Northern West Virginia, Wheeling, Morgantown, Clarksburg, Parkersburg
- Historically strong industrial area connected with the coal and steel industries
- Lots of coal and industrial job losses since mid-1970s
- Significant growth in federal government jobs thanks to Appropriations earmarks by Robert Byrd
- Morgantown home of West Virginia University
About David McKinley:
- Won an open seat race 50.4% to 49.6% in 2010 after long time 14 term incumbent Democrat Alan Mollohan lost his primary to Democratic State Senator Mike Oliverio after Mollohan got into ethical trouble (Oliverio ran in the general election taking positions similar to or to the right of McKinley) (The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1978-1979)
- Co-founded a Marcellus Shale Caucus to oppose regulation of drilling (The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1979)
WV-2
2008: Obama 44% McCain 55%
2012: Obama 38% Romney 60%
Cook Partisan Index: R+11
Median Household Income: $45,474
Demographics: 3.1% Black, .6% Asian, .2% Native American, 91.2% White, .4% Other, 3.1% Two or more; Hispanic or Latino 1.7%
Veterans/active duty: 11.1%
Urban 30% Suburban 33.8% Rural 36.2%
% of Voting Age Turnout Voting in 2012: 48.1%
Incumbent: Alex Mooney (R)
Current Opponents:
Ken Reed (R) - Pharmacy Owner & '14 Candidate
Marc Savitt (R) - Mortgage Broker, Ex-Trade Association Executive & '14 Candidate in Virgina
Potential Opponents:
Nick Casey (D) - Ex-Democratic State Chair, Attorney, Accountant & '14 Nominee Nancy Guthrie (D) - State Del.
District background:
- Central West Virginia, Eastern Panhandle, Berkley Springs, Harpers Ferry, Charleston, Martinsburg
- Berkley County has commuter rail service to Washington, DC, a 25% African-American population, and has grown 42% since 2000 to become the second largest county in the state
- Elk River near Charleston was the site of a massive chemical spill in January 2014 that caused more than 300,000 people to lose fresh drinking water for days and in some cases weeks
About Alex Mooney:
- First term congressman and carpetbagger from Maryland, where he was the chair of the Maryland Republican Party (The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1980)
- Won his primary with 36% (The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1980)
- Won the general election by 4,832 votes 47% to 44% and (The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1980)
- Was a Republican Maryland State Senator that lost re-election 2010 (His official US House website biography says he was a State Senator, but doesn’t say what state) (mooney.house.gov/... and The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1981)
- Opposed to Obamacare (The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1981)
- Supported Ryan budget (The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1981)
- Took credit for provisions of the budget that opposed funding ozone standards by the EPA and blocked regulations that would prohibit surface mining in West Virginia (The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1981)
WV-3
2008: Obama 42% McCain 56%
2012: Obama 33% Romney 65%
Cook Partisan Index: R+14
Median Household Income: $36,473
Demographics: 3.5% Black, .4% Asian, .2% Native American, 93.8% White, .4% Other, 1.4% Two or more; Hispanic or Latino .7%
Veterans/active duty: 9.9%
Urban 23.3% Suburban 18.3% Rural 58.5%
% of Voting Age Turnout Voting in 2012: 43%
Incumbent: Evan Jenkins (R)
Current Opponents: None
Potential Opponents:
Mike Green (D) - Ex-State Sen. & Businessman
Earl Ray Tomblin (D) - Governor, Ex-State Senate President & Ex-State Delegate
District background:
- Southern West Virginia, Huntington, Beckley
- West Virginia lost 6,700 coal mining jobs from late 2011 to early 2015, many of these jobs had been in southern West Virginia (The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1983)
- Raleigh County was the site of the Massey Energy’s Upper Big Branch Mines disaster that killed 29 miners in April 2010 (The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1983)
- About 25% of the district is in and around the industrial city of Huntington on the Ohio River and home to Marshall University (The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1983)
- About 25% of the district is in Beckley and the farming uplands to the east (The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1983)
- Less than 50% of the district is the heavy coal mining region that includes Boone, Logan, Raleigh, and Mingo Counties (The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1983)
- The United Miner Workers have historically been a very strong union here, but Al Gore only won union members 51%-47% in 2000 (The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1982 and The Almanac of American Politics 2002, p. 1635)
About Evan Jenkins:
- Pledged to lead the effort to repeal Obamacare (The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1983)
- In June 2015 he took credit for cutting $1.2 billion from the EPA’s Appropriations (The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1984)
- Added prohibitions on the implementation of new greenhouse gas regulations and on expanding regulatory authority under the Clean Water Act to bills (The Almanac of American Politics 2016, p. 1984)
Here are the deadlines in each state to file to become a candidate:
Alabama: November 6, 2015 (Source: State Secretary of State’s website)
Alaska: June 1, 2016 (Source: DailyKosElections)
Arizona: June 1, 2016 (Source: State Secretary of State’s website)
Arkansas: November 9, 2015 (Source: State Secretary of State’s website)
California: March 11, 2016 (Source: State Secretary of State’s website)
Colorado: April 4, 2016 (Source: DailyKosElections)
Connecticut: June 7, 2016 (Source: DailyKosElections)
Delaware: July 12, 2016 (Source: DailyKosElections)
Florida: June 24, 2016 (Source: State Secretary of State’s website)
Georgia: March 11, 2016 (Source: DailyKosElections)
Hawaii: June 7, 2016 (Source: DailyKosElections)
Idaho: March 11, 2016 (Source: DailyKosElections)
Illinois: November 30, 2015 (Source: State Secretary of State’s website)
Indiana: February 5, 2016 (Source: State Secretary of State’s website)
Iowa: March 18, 2016 (Source: State Secretary of State’s website)
Kansas: June 1, 2016 (Source: State Secretary of State’s website)
Kentucky: January 26, 2016 (Source: DailyKosElections)
Louisiana: July 22, 2016 (Source: DailyKosElections)
Maine: March 15, 2016 (Source: DailyKosElections)
Maryland: February 3, 2016 (Source: State Secretary of State’s website)
Massachusetts: June 7, 2016 (Source: DailyKosElections)
Michigan: April 19, 2016 (Source: DailyKosElections)
Minnesota: May 31, 2016 (Source: DailyKosElections)
Mississippi: January 8, 2016 (Source: State Secretary of State’s website)
Missouri: March 29, 2016 (Source: DailyKosElections)
Montana: March 14, 2016 (Source: DailyKosElections)
Nebraska: March 1, 2016 (Source: DailyKosElections)
Nevada: March 18, 2016 (Source: State Secretary of State’s website)
New Hampshire: June 10, 2016 (Source: DailyKosElections)
New Jersey: April 4, 2016 (Source: DailyKosElections)
New Mexico: February 2, 2016 (Source: DailyKosElections)
New York: April 14, 2016 (Source: DailyKosElections)
North Carolina: December 21, 2015 (Source: DailyKosElections)
North Dakota: April 11, 2016 (Source: DailyKosElections)
Ohio: December 16, 2015 (Source: State Secretary of State’s website)
Oklahoma: April 15, 2016 (Source: DailyKosElections)
Oregon: March 8, 2016 (Source: DailyKosElections)
Pennsylvania: February 16, 2016 (Source: DailyKosElections)
Rhode Island: June 29, 2016 (Source: DailyKosElections)
South Carolina: March 30, 2016 (Source: DailyKosElections)
South Dakota: March 29, 2016 (Source: DailyKosElections)
Tennessee: April 7, 2016 (Source: DailyKosElections)
Texas: December 14, 2015 (Source: State Secretary of State’s website)
Utah: March 17, 2016 (Source: DailyKosElections)
Vermont: May 26, 2016 (Source: DailyKosElections)
Virginia: March 31, 2016 (Source: DailyKosElections)
Washington: May 20, 2016 (Source: DailyKosElections)
West Virginia: January 30, 2016 (Source: State Secretary of State’s website)
Wisconsin: June 1, 2016 (Source: DailyKosElections)
Wyoming: May 27, 2016 (Source: DailyKosElections)
Here is some background on the Crowdsourcing project:
The Crowdsourcing Steering Committee comprises Chris Reeves, evcoren, Meteor Blades and navajo. If you’d like to join this group, send our group a kosmail and let us know how you want to help. Navajo, who is organizing volunteers, will send you an invite. Also, please post your own diaries and recommend the work of others you think would be good additions to the effort.
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