Less than 2 months ago - July 19, 2015, to be precise, I posted a diary with the second part of the title asking the question, "HRC in freefall?"
http://www.dailykos.com/...
The national polling numbers then were:
July 15: HRC - 56.8 Sanders - 16.3 Biden - 11.3
Of course, there was the usual responses saying that HRC is not in a freefall and she still has a comfortable lead etc. etc. But that has happened since?
The numbers now read:
Sep 13: HRC - 44.2 Sanders - 22.6 Biden - 20.3
A fall of 12.6 percentage points for Clinton in less than 2 months! Still not a freefall? Just when would it be recognized as a freefall? When she goes below 40? 35? Or is it like bear markets in stocks, oil etc., where it is not apparent to the believers until the bear has nearly finished its work?
It would have looked a lot worse for Clinton if the Biden candidacy was not up in the air. My feeling is that it was floated in order to prevent an exodus of HRC voters to Sanders, the only other candidate with a real chance to be nominated (with all due respect to O'Malley, Chafee and Webb).
By floating Biden, the DC Wall Street Democrats created an alternative "electable" option and sure enough, the primary voters abandoning HRC flocked to him instead of to Sanders. Imagine the scenario if it had been 44.2, 37.6 and 5.3 for the three candidates.
How soon can we see a scenario like that? I don't know. But if I were to guess, it could happen in the next 2-3 months. However, for now, the DC Wall Street Democrats have done some window-dressing and saved the day.