Retiring Minnesota GOP Rep. John Kline
:
• MN-02: On Thursday, GOP Rep. John Kline announced that he would not seek re-election to his swingy suburban Twin Cities seat. Obama narrowly won Minnesota's 2nd District 49.1 to 49.0, but Kline has always pulled off clear victories here ever since he was first elected in 2002. This is exactly the type of seat that Democrats need to capture if they want any chance at returning to the majority, and the fight for this district is going to get a lot more interesting now that Kline is departing.
Team Blue had two viable candidates running here even before Kline made his announcement. Former health care executive Angie Craig brought in an impressive $327,000 from April to June; physician Mary Lawrence only raised $113,000 from donors but she threw in $500,000 of her own money, giving her a $1,045,000 to $231,000 cash-on-hand lead over Craig. And right after Kline made his announcement, state Rep. Joe Atkins has confirmed his interest in this seat, saying he expects to decide next week. Atkins, who turned down this race in 2012, has pulled off decisive wins in his 52.9 to 45.4 Obama seat, including a 64.5 to 35.4 victory during last year's GOP wave. For her part, Craig unveiled an endorsement from the United Steelworkers hours after Kline announced his departure.
There are a multitude of candidates who are considering on the GOP side, and the Pioneer Press's Rachel Stassen-Berger is doing some stellar work by putting a continuously-updated Google Doc tracking who's in, out, and who's a maybe. State Reps. Tony Albright and Steve Drazkowski are openly considering, while state Sen. Eric Pratt and 2012 U.S. Senate nominee Kurt Bills haven't ruled anything out. (Bills lost to Amy Klobuchar 65.2-30.5, so Team Red wouldn't be devastated if he sits it out.) The Star-Tribune's Michael Brodkorb also says that GOP activists are touting state Sen. Dave Thompson, and Thompson did not rule anything out.
And over at Roll Call, Emily Cahn plays Great Mentioner for a few other Republicans. GOP operatives name ex-state Sen. Ted Daley; 2014 Senate nominee Mike McFadden; state Rep. Rod Hamilton; 2012 and 2014 primary candidate David Gerson; and former Judge Mary Pawlenty, the wife of ex-Gov. Tim Pawlenty as potential candidates. A few Republicans have said no though, with state Rep. Pat Garofalo memorably declaring that "I would rather stick a fork in my eye than run for Congress." Now that's how you unambiguously rule out a campaign!
No matter what, though, this race will be hotly contested: In addition to Obama's narrow win here in 2012, Democratic Sen. Al Franken carried the 2nd by a narrow 48.7 to 47.7 margin, even as he was winning 53.2 to 42.9 statewide last year. And while Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton also won a clear 50.1 to 44.5 statewide win, he lost the 2nd 49.1 to 45.9, so both parties can compete here. But an open seat with presidential turnout gives Democrats their best chance at a pickup in this district in ages, and this will be a contest to watch.
Senate:
• CO-Sen: Rich guy Robert Blaha has been making noises about challenging Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet for a while, and he's now being very specific on what it will take for him to jump in. Blaha says that he'll run if Bennet votes for the Obama Administration's Iran Deal, and he won't run if Bennet votes against it, simple as that. Blaha also once again made it clear that he's not going to defer to District Attorney George Brauchler, whom national Republicans have been trying to recruit. Blaha has run for office once, spending $770,000 of his own money only to lose 61.7 to 38.9 to incumbent Doug Lamborn in the 2012 GOP primary for CO-05.
Gubernatorial:
• KY-Gov: Usually we don't write about the formation of new super PACs. After all, creating one is just a matter of filing some paperwork with the FEC—it's what folks do with them after they're set up that matters. But the situation here is a little unusual, and that's because supporters of businessman Matt Bevin, the Republican nominee for governor in Kentucky, only just now got around to putting together a super PAC on his behalf, with the election barely two months away. And the group doesn't seem to have much money, saying only that it "hopes" to raise $1 million by Sept. 15.
Now, Bevin can self-fund, and he also has the RGA in his corner, so this exceptionally late start for his super PAC is not necessarily a devastating blow. But as the Lexington Herald-Leader points out, both Democrat Jack Conway and a pro-Conway super PAC have been on the air for weeks; Bevin, by contrast, has yet to run a single general election ad. Bevin's also had well-publicized problems raising money from donors other than himself, but given his personal wealth, his absence from the airwaves is surprising.
• LA-Gov: Two recent polls showed Sen. David Vitter in a competitive contest with Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle, a fellow Republican, for the second spot in the November runoff. (State Rep. John Bel Edwards, who has the Democratic side to himself, looks likely to consolidate enough support in the Oct. 24 jungle primary to make it to November.) But GOP pollster Triumph Campaigns is out with an early September survey, and they still have Vitter looking like a safe bet to advance past the first round.
Triumph gives Edwards and Vitter the top two spots with 31 percent each, while Angelle lags far behind at 14; GOP Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne is in fourth with 13. The results are almost identical to their August poll. Maybe more polls will soon tell us if Vitter is actually in trouble but for now, there's just no easy answer.
• OR-Gov: Only a few days ago, 2014 GOP Senate nominee Monica Wehby began publicly considering a bid against interim Democratic Gov. Kate Brown in next year's special election, but she announced on Wednesday that she wouldn't go for it. Wehby's Senate campaign went very badly last year, and few Republicans will be sad to see her sit this one out: Indeed, when Wehby first started floating her name, no prominent Republicans expressed any real interest in seeing her run.
House:
• CA-17: On Thursday, the House Ethics Committee published a report from the independent Office of Congressional Ethics finding "substantial reason to believe" that Democratic Rep. Mike Honda had improperly used government staff and resources for campaign purposes. Honda's staff also allegedly proposed conditioning official acts on donations: One note on fundraising taken down at an official staff retreat read, "to work, it will require MH to use his personal touch ... also will likely be transactional—i.e. help me with this visa for my grandma."
The OCE submitted its report in June, prompting the ethics committee to indefinitely extend its review, but by law, the report had to be made public now. The committee said Thursday it will continue investigating, but it has no deadline for acting. Honda faces a second challenge from fellow Democrat Ro Khanna, who fell short in running against him from the right last year.
• FL-02: Plenty of GOP activists hate physician Neal Dunn over his past donations to Democrats, but establishment types like him just fine. Dunn recently earned the endorsement of ex-state House Speaker Will Weatherford, who is very well regarded in Florida GOP politics and may be able to help Dunn make some good connections. Dunn also has ex-state Senate President Don Gaetz and Jeb Bush era state House Speaker Allan Bense in his corner. Dunn faces former Rick Scott official Mary Thomas in the primary for what's likely to be a safely red seat once redistricting concludes.
• NV-04: Sen. Harry Reid may be retiring, but he still holds tremendous sway over Silver State Democrats. And on Thursday, Reid endorsed state Sen. Ruben Kihuen in the four-way primary to face Republican Rep. Cresent Hardy. Reid only privately backed Kihuen in his unsuccessful 2012 bid for the neighboring 1st District, and Reid's full-throttled support should give Kihuen a better shot this time around. And unsurprisingly, Reid is already fundraising for Kihuen.
It remains to be seen what Kihuen's three primary rivals will do. Communities in Schools of Nevada Board President Susie Lee has plenty of access to money and connections, so she could still forge ahead. However, former Assemblywoman Lucy Flores, herself a former Reid protégé, has not been raising much cash, while former state Assembly Speaker John Oceguera hasn't been in the contest long enough to report any fundraising.
As we've mentioned before, it would make sense for this trio to look at running in the open 3rd District instead of going toe-to-toe with the Reid machine. Democrats don't have a viable candidate in this swingy seat, and they would be doing their party a solid by filling the void. Southern Nevada voters have shown little willingness to punish politicians for district-hopping, and Lee, Flores, or Oceguera would likely be able to count on significant Democratic support if they ran there instead of for the bluer 4th.
Grab Bag:
• President-by-LD: We return to New Jersey for a look at Democratic Sen. Cory Booker's 2014 win. We have the results calculated by state legislative district (in New Jersey, state Assembly and state Senate seats are identical) and congressional district. We also have the results for the 2012 presidential and U.S. Senate races, as well as the 2013 Senate and gubernatorial contest, calculated. You can find our master list of states here. Also be sure to check out Stephen Wolf's interactive state legislative maps.
Booker beat Republican Steve Lonegan 54.9-44.0 in the 2013 special, and he expanded his margin of victory to 55.8 to 42.3 against Jeff Bell last year. Only one state legislative seat, LD-03 (home of Democratic state Senate Leader and likely 2017 gubernatorial candidate Stephen Sweeney) flipped to Booker after voting against him the year before. In 2014, Booker carried most of the 28 legislative seats Obama won, losing only LD-01 and LD-08.
Booker carried seven of the state's 12 congressional districts, one less than Obama's eight. Booker did take Scott Garrett's North Jersey 5th District 49.7 to 48.6, a little better than Obama's 50.9 to 47.9 defeat. Democrats are hoping to unseat Garrett next year, and former Clinton advisor Josh Gottheimer has raised quite a bit of money so far. However, Booker narrowly lost South Jersey's 2nd and 3rd Districts, two GOP-held seats that Obama carried. The difference is especially pronounced in NJ-02: Obama won the seat 53.3 to 45.4, while Booker lost it 50.4 to 47.8. The 2nd is held by Rep. Frank LoBiondo, who has pulled off easy wins here throughout his career.
• VA Redistricting: Thanks to an epic meltdown in the legislature, a three-judge panel has taken over the process of redrawing Virginia's congressional map, which the same court previously ruled was unconstitutional. The judges just announced that they'll appoint a special master (typically some sort of outside expert) to handle the actual cartography, and they've ordered the parties to submit proposed remedial plans by Sept. 18. Members of the public may also submit proposals by sending a letter to District Court Judge Robert Payne (address here).
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.
